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经济学家金刻羽:全球化重构,封锁技术和知识已不再可能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 13:39
12月28日,香港科技大学地缘经济研究所所长金刻羽在《财经》年会2026:预测与战略·年度对话2025全球财富管理论坛上说,当前地缘与经济已深度融 合,成为影响企业战略的核心因素,但全球化并未因大国竞争和保护主义而消失,而是在经历重构。 金刻羽认为,如今想封锁技术、封锁知识已不可能。"19世纪时高科技可以锁在一台机器里防止窃取,有人想偷,得把整个设备运走再从英国逃到美国,现 在这已经行不通。技术无法被封锁。"金刻羽说。 金刻羽1982年出生于北京,虽然是80后,但金刻羽的经济学知识非常深厚,她不仅是哈佛大学经济学博士,同时还是亚投行行长金立群的女儿,早在14岁金 刻羽就赴美读高中,毕业后曾就职世界银行、国际货币基金组织等机构,同时还精通多国语言,是名副其实的才女。 在全球化重构的今天,金刻羽的认识也愈发深刻,即西方想通过封锁技术和知识来限制他国发展,已经不可能。 金刻羽说,全球化正在经历重构,如今想封锁技术、封锁知识已不可能。 而历史经验也表明,技术封锁往往适得其反,反而会加速技术的多极化扩散。早在上世纪50年代,美国就曾发起麦卡锡运动,对当时的科学家进行迫害,钱 学森等华裔科学家就被迫回国,反而意外推动了我 ...
宇通集团|写入《2025 汽车行业影响力年鉴》
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-12-31 07:06
(原标题:宇通集团|写入《2025 汽车行业影响力年鉴》) 在"十四五"规划收官之际,中国汽车产业正在进入新的发展阶段。经济观察报第十九届中国汽车年会暨《2025汽车行业影响力年鉴》,基于公开 数据、市场表现与行业共识,对年度内在技术路径与市场格局层面产生实际影响的"明亮因子"进行系统梳理。 在当前新能源产业从高速增长向高质量发展转型的背景下,市场对新能源商用车企业的判断,正从规模导向转向技术自主性、全球化能力与可持 续盈利能力。宇通客车在2025年所展现的核心技术自主化、全球化定制落地、行业标准引领等多重能力,使其成为国内新能源商用车领域少数同 时具备技术深度、市场广度与成长确定性的领军企业。 基于其在新能源商用车领域的核心技术突破、全球化市场引领地位、定制化拓展能力以及由此形成的持续行业影响力,宇通客车被写入《2025汽 车行业影响力年鉴》,作为年度新能源商用车先锋领军企业样本。 相关ETF A50ETF (产品代码: 159601) 当政策加码推动新能源营运重卡规模化应用,补能设施网络持续完善,新能源商用车的竞争焦点已从单一产品迭代升级为技术自主化、市场全球 化与生态一体化的综合实力比拼。宇通集团在20 ...
中国向全球宣布,这项科技突破美国封锁,或将引领第四次工业革命
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 08:12
中国电力系统又迎来了一项重大突破!南方电网宣布,已经全面启用了国产的"天权"求解器,告别了长时间依赖外国技术的局面。 这项技术的突破能否改变全球电力市场的格局呢? 在全球范围内,电力系统的调度和优化需要极其复杂的计算,这其中最关键的工具就是求解器。 求解器是一种可以优化计算的数学基础软件,广泛应用于电网、金融市场、供应链等多个行业中。 对于电力市场来说,求解器的核心任务是确保电网的稳定运行,通过对电力生产和消费的合理调度,最大化地降低发电成本,保障电力供应的安全性。 这款求解器是国内工程师团队经过五年研发的成果,不仅比美国同类产品计算速度快了14%,在多个方面的表现也超过了进口产品。 "天权"求解器的诞生,展示了中国在打破技术封锁和走自主创新道路上的决心与能力。 然而,过去30多年,全球的电力市场几乎都被美国的求解器垄断。 以Gurobi为代表的美国求解器,在全球电力调度领域的广泛应用,使得许多国家和地区的电力系统不得不依赖外国技术。 这种情况虽然一度解决了技术需求,但也使得各国在电力保障上处于"受制于人"的局面,尤其是在关键时刻,外国软件的控制和封闭性增加了安全隐患和技 术不确定性。 为了打破这一技术垄断, ...
中油测井自研高温电源模块通过检测
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-12-17 05:47
中油测井电源团队经过3年创新攻关,突破大功率电源模块立体结构设计、多路输出电源嵌套式设计、 高温环境导热优化等技术瓶颈,研制出高效率、长寿命、多电压规格的PS175系列高温电源模块,在实 现技术自主化的同时,显著降低了制造成本。本次检测还开展了高温下全负载循环测试,两款核心产品 的工艺可靠性与环境适应性得到充分验证。 目前,PS175系列高温电源模块已构建交流转直流、组合、独立直流转直流三大产品系列,在中油测井 多种重点测井仪器中完成原位替换,部分产品性能超过同类外购产品,并通过中国合格评定国家认可委 员会(CNAS)认证,为中油测井完善核心部件自主供应体系、开拓高温测井电源细分市场奠定了基 础。 中化新网讯 日前,中国石油(601857)集团测井有限公司(以下简称中油测井)首批两款自研的175摄 氏度/60小时系列高温电源模块核心产品通过良品率检测,合格率与综合性能均满足质量控制要求,具 备了量产条件。 作为测井仪器工作的"心脏",高温电源模块发挥着在高温下稳定输出特定电压与电流的作用,直接决定 仪器的测量精度与工作时长。该模块工作温度高、尺寸小,研发难度大,长期依赖外部供应,采购成本 居高不下。 ...
国产农机市场认可度显著提升 满足国内九成以上需求
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-12-10 22:12
"十四五"时期,我国农机工业走出了一条"技术自主化、产品高端化、产业集群化、服务智能化"的特色 发展之路,农机工业实现跨越式发展。12月10日,记者从中国机械工业联合会了解到:国产农机市场认 可度显著提升,满足了国内90%以上的市场需求。行业内培养出118家国家级专精特新"小巨人"企业, 23家国家级制造业单项冠军企业。 丘陵山区装备方面,通过专项支持,一批轻量化、多功能适用机具成功落地,有效缓解了山地农业生产 难题,推动典型丘陵山区农作物耕种收综合机械化率不断提高。 北斗卫星导航技术深入农业机械各个领域,加装北斗卫星导航终端的农机超过350万台套,其中定位终 端210万台、作业终端90万台、辅助驾驶50万台。 无人机在农业生产中的应用愈加广泛,目前保有量为25万架,每年作业27亿亩次,除农药喷洒外,还应 用于播种、施肥、授粉、农情检测及运输等。 重大装备国产化成效显著。"十四五"时期,多款标志性产品实现进口替代与市场主导。15公斤/秒喂入 量及以上智能高效稻麦联合收割机实现批量销售,各项指标达到攻关目标;240马力以上无人驾驶CVT 拖拉机在北大荒、新疆生产建设兵团成功示范应用;甘蔗收获机形成130、180 ...
格力金湾智能工厂:中国智造的样本
Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has officially announced the list of smart factory gradient cultivation projects for 2025, with Gree Electric's "Full Value Chain Gree Collaborative Air Conditioning Smart Factory" being selected, showcasing a replicable "Chinese solution" for global manufacturing transformation [1] - The Gree Jinwan factory's "full value chain collaboration" model breaks through efficiency bottlenecks by integrating all manufacturing processes, utilizing 5G-A technology and full-process digitalization [1] - The factory's AI vision system enhances defect identification efficiency and accuracy, while the AGV robot logistics system improves material turnover efficiency by 40% [1] - The digital management model reduces order delivery cycles from 30 days to 15 days, setting a new benchmark for efficient production in the industry [1] Technology Autonomy - Gree's 30 years of technological accumulation is evident in its smart factory, which achieves complete domestic substitution from core equipment to software systems [2] - The self-developed intelligent CNC system adjusts cutting parameters automatically based on material types, while the 10KG - SCARA robot boasts a positioning accuracy of ±0.01 mm, breaking foreign monopolies in the mid-to-high-end market [2] - Gree's fully autonomous production capabilities allow it to maintain stability amid global supply chain fluctuations [2] Green and Intelligent Integration - The Gree Jinwan factory exemplifies the deep integration of green and intelligent manufacturing, reducing energy consumption per product and aligning with the "Innovate Gree, Low Carbon Life" philosophy [3] - The factory has processed over 69.72 million discarded appliances, embedding green principles throughout the production process [3] - Gree's products, such as the GMV9 central air conditioning series, operate in a wide temperature range and contribute to energy efficiency upgrades in commercial buildings [3] Global Competitiveness - The smart factory enhances Gree's global competitiveness, with air conditioning products receiving Singapore's Green Mark Platinum certification and overseas revenue reaching 16.335 billion yuan, with a 70% share of self-branded exports [3] - Gree's leadership in establishing two international standards for refrigeration compressors marks a significant shift from "product export" to "standard export," enhancing China's manufacturing voice on the global stage [3] - The success of Gree Jinwan smart factory reflects a broader narrative of China's manufacturing transformation and its potential to occupy a higher position in the global industrial value chain [4]
丹麦第一家12英寸晶圆厂落成
半导体行业观察· 2025-11-21 00:58
Core Insights - The establishment of Denmark's first 300mm wafer manufacturing facility, the POEM Technology Center, marks a significant step towards technological autonomy in Europe [1][3] - The center aims to accelerate breakthroughs in photonic and quantum chip manufacturing, enhancing Denmark's and Europe's semiconductor ecosystem [1][2] Group 1: Facility Overview - The POEM Technology Center is a collaboration between the Novo Nordisk Foundation's Quantum Chip Project (NQCP) and French company Riber, located at the Niels Bohr Institute of the University of Copenhagen [1] - The center will utilize advanced techniques such as molecular beam epitaxy to produce silicon and silicon-on-insulator wafers, with plans to be fully operational within a year [1][2] Group 2: Production and Research Focus - Initial materials for research are expected to be ready by the end of the year, with ongoing development of chip production infrastructure [2] - The center will serve as a pilot production line and prototype center, focusing on developing components necessary for quantum computing [2] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The POEM Technology Center aligns with Europe's efforts to reduce dependence on US and Asian chip manufacturing, supported by initiatives like the EU Chip Act [3] - The NQCP aims to create a national ecosystem for advanced quantum and photonic chips, collaborating with various stakeholders in the semiconductor industry [4]
20年独创“根技术”,东土大并购加速“开枝叶”
Core Insights - The acquisition of 100% shares of Gaoweike by Dongtu Technology signifies a strategic integration in China's industrial technology sector, reflecting a shift from policy-driven to market-driven innovation in the industrial software industry [1][5]. Group 1: Strategic Integration - The merger combines Dongtu Technology's expertise in industrial networks and intelligent control platforms with Gaoweike's extensive channel network in key sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, creating a robust foundation for technology application [2]. - This integration establishes a unique technology transformation pathway, leveraging market demand to adapt Dongtu's technology across thousands of manufacturing scenarios and utilizing real-time application data from Gaoweike's clients to enhance technology iteration [3]. Group 2: Industry Safety and Innovation - The merger addresses national strategic needs by integrating self-controlled technology into critical sectors such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic equipment, which require high safety standards for control systems [4]. - This model of integration serves as a demonstration effect, potentially enhancing the self-sufficiency of China's manufacturing sector by driving core technology breakthroughs through downstream application demands [4]. Group 3: Market Evolution - The acquisition represents a significant transition in China's industrial innovation landscape, moving from a phase of policy guidance to one focused on market competition and technology commercialization [5]. - Dongtu Technology's actions align with national goals to secure key technologies domestically, emphasizing the importance of market-driven approaches in promoting the adoption of intelligent control technologies [5]. Group 4: New Valuation Logic - The transaction introduces a multi-dimensional valuation model for technology companies, incorporating strategic factors such as potential market share in a low domestic replacement rate environment, integration capabilities, and contributions to national security [7]. - This new evaluation framework encourages capital to focus on companies with comprehensive solutions and ecosystem-building potential, fostering a healthier innovation ecosystem and driving industry upgrades [7]. Group 5: Collaborative Innovation - The integration highlights the importance of collaboration in driving technological breakthroughs and innovation, suggesting that capital can significantly empower industrial innovation in the current era [8].
美论坛热议:如果美国与中国完全脱钩,中国还能维持多久?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 04:44
Group 1 - The ongoing debate on the potential decoupling between China and the U.S. reflects the long-term impacts of the trade war, suggesting that isolationism has no winners and could lead to significant economic downturns for both sides [1][10][12] - China's strategy focuses on boosting domestic demand and technological independence, with exports to the U.S. decreasing from over 20% to an estimated 14.7% by 2024, while exports to ASEAN countries are projected to rise by 25% [2][4] - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is highlighted, with companies like Huawei and SMIC making significant advancements in technology, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in critical industries [4][6] Group 2 - The potential consequences of decoupling for the U.S. economy include increased inflation and higher costs for consumers, as 60% of products in major retailers like Walmart are made in China, leading to an estimated $100 billion loss for the U.S. if a complete decoupling occurs [6][8] - U.S. tech giants such as Intel and Qualcomm could see revenue declines of at least 15% if they lose access to the Chinese market, which is crucial for their earnings [8] - The global supply chain disruption resulting from U.S.-China decoupling could lead to increased prices worldwide, exacerbating inequality and impacting emerging economies, while also providing opportunities for countries in Latin America and Africa to strengthen ties with China [10][12] Group 3 - Reports indicate that China's economic resilience is stronger than expected, while U.S. growth may slow due to tariffs, emphasizing the need for rational cooperation over confrontation [12][13] - The overall conclusion is that decoupling represents a lose-lose scenario, and collaboration is essential for mutual prosperity, as the global economy is interconnected and isolation could lead to poverty [13]
中欧班列骤停:汽车供应链危机加速“重构战”
Core Viewpoint - The sudden closure of the Polish border has led to significant disruptions in the supply chain for automotive parts between China and Europe, prompting Chinese car manufacturers to urgently restructure their operations to mitigate the impact [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Supply Chain - The Central European Railway is a critical channel for transporting precision automotive parts from China to Europe, accounting for approximately 35% of the transport share. The abrupt border closure has caused a "shock" to this vital artery, leading to a deep crisis in supply chain security for the global automotive industry [2]. - The automotive industry's reliance on cross-border transport and precise timing for key components such as control systems, sensors, and battery modules makes it highly vulnerable to disruptions. If transport issues persist, major production bases in Germany, France, Czech Republic, and Slovakia may face production cuts or delays in new product launches [2]. Group 2: Chinese Automotive Companies' Response - In response to the supply crisis, Chinese automotive companies have activated emergency plans focusing on localizing production, diversifying logistics, and enhancing technological independence. BYD's local supply capabilities in Hungary now cover 80% of the Central European market, reducing transportation costs by approximately 25% [3]. - Companies are exploring new logistics patterns, such as utilizing the "China-Southeast Asia-Mediterranean" shipping route to mitigate risks associated with the Central European Railway. This includes leveraging roll-on/roll-off shipping through Vietnam and Thailand to reduce reliance on a single transport channel [3]. Group 3: Long-term Strategic Considerations - The logistics crisis serves as a warning for the entire industry, emphasizing the need for supply chain designs that balance efficiency with security in the context of geopolitical risks. Future supply chains are likely to favor "multi-point distribution" to reduce transcontinental dependencies [4]. - The incident highlights the importance of incorporating historical geopolitical factors into risk assessment mechanisms, as events like military exercises and elections can trigger supply chain disruptions [4]. Group 4: Global Automotive Market Implications - The current situation, while a challenge, also presents an opportunity for Chinese automotive companies to drive industry upgrades and strategic adjustments. The crisis underscores the necessity for supply chains to be resilient against geopolitical risks while adapting to market demand changes [6]. - The experience and strategies of Chinese companies in navigating this crisis may provide valuable insights for global automotive firms, emphasizing the need to find a precise balance between efficiency and security in an uncertain international environment [5].