12月28日，香港科技大学地缘经济研究所所长金刻羽在《财经》年会2026：预测与战略·年度对话2025全球财富管理论坛上说，当前地缘与经济已深度融 合，成为影响企业战略的核心因素，但全球化并未因大国竞争和保护主义而消失，而是在经历重构。 金刻羽认为，如今想封锁技术、封锁知识已不可能。"19世纪时高科技可以锁在一台机器里防止窃取，有人想偷，得把整个设备运走再从英国逃到美国，现 在这已经行不通。技术无法被封锁。"金刻羽说。 金刻羽1982年出生于北京，虽然是80后，但金刻羽的经济学知识非常深厚，她不仅是哈佛大学经济学博士，同时还是亚投行行长金立群的女儿，早在14岁金 刻羽就赴美读高中，毕业后曾就职世界银行、国际货币基金组织等机构，同时还精通多国语言，是名副其实的才女。 在全球化重构的今天，金刻羽的认识也愈发深刻，即西方想通过封锁技术和知识来限制他国发展，已经不可能。 金刻羽说，全球化正在经历重构，如今想封锁技术、封锁知识已不可能。 而历史经验也表明，技术封锁往往适得其反，反而会加速技术的多极化扩散。早在上世纪50年代，美国就曾发起麦卡锡运动，对当时的科学家进行迫害，钱 学森等华裔科学家就被迫回国，反而意外推动了我 ...

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会 2026：预测与战略 ·年度对话暨 2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中 的中国定力"。 12月18日，香港科技大学地缘经济研究所所长金刻羽在发言中表示，当前地缘政治与经济已深度融 合，成为影响企业战略与国家政策的核心因素，但全球化并未因大国竞争与保护主义而消失，而是在经 历重构。 金刻羽谈到，如今想封锁技术、封锁知识已不可能。 "十九世纪时高科技可以锁在一台机器里防止 窃取，有人想偷，得把整个设备运走再从英国逃到美国，现在这已行不通。技术无法被封锁。"全球化 也正在形成新的连接模式：越南、墨西哥等"超级连接器"经济体在中美之间承担了重要的中转角色，使 得贸易与投资形成间接而紧密的网络。 地缘政治与经济如今的深度融合已变得至关重要，成为主导企业战略、国家政策以及面向未来的核 心命题，因为它不再仅仅是背景噪音。如果观察数据，过去120年间构建出的地缘经济与地缘政治不稳 定性指标，完全会影响国内经济，而今它显然已是国际贸易、资本流动、货币格局等重要方面的决定性 因素。今天我更希望从数据真实的一 ...

Core Insights - The global venture capital landscape is undergoing a transformation due to high interest rates and geopolitical tensions, with a significant shift towards "hard technology" investments in China [1][3][10] Investment Trends - According to the white paper, global venture capital investment is expected to approach $440 billion in 2025, marking a 53% increase from 2024, with generative AI (AIGC) being the most attractive investment area, capturing 31% of global venture capital in Q2 2025 [3][4] - The average deal size has reached a historical high of $3.5 million, indicating a shift towards a "less but better" investment strategy [3][4] Regional Dynamics - The U.S. dominates global AI investment with a 70% share, while China has seen 161 financing events in the AIGC sector in 2024, totaling approximately 65.3 billion RMB [4] - In the first half of 2025, China's venture capital market stabilized with new fund sizes reaching 1.07 trillion RMB, a 20% increase from the previous period [4] Policy Support - The government is establishing a comprehensive policy support system for the venture capital industry, focusing on building a "patient capital" framework and enhancing exit channels for investments [6][5] Sector Focus - Investment is heavily concentrated in "hard technology" sectors, with the electronic information industry leading with 1,569 investments totaling 144.4 billion RMB, followed by advanced manufacturing and healthcare [8][9] Key Areas of Growth - The white paper highlights three major areas of focus: 1. Intelligent and high-end manufacturing, with domestic industrial robot market share surpassing 52% [9] 2. Artificial intelligence and big data, with AIGC applications reaching over 100 million monthly active users [9] 3. Biotechnology, with significant growth in gene therapy and cell therapy, and a total of $30-41.5 billion in licensing deals with foreign pharmaceutical companies in 2024 [9] Opportunities and Challenges - The Chinese venture capital industry faces unprecedented dual opportunities from domestic substitution and self-innovation, as well as globalization and restructuring of supply chains [10] - The industry is expected to evolve along three main lines: deep verticalization, international restructuring, and ecosystem integration [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shift in U.S. strategy towards a multilateral approach in dealing with China, as President Trump acknowledges the difficulty of unilateral action and seeks to rally 36 allied nations to form a united front against China [1][3] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid will focus on four key issues: intellectual property protection, forced technology transfer, rare earth export restrictions, and bilateral tariff adjustments [1] - Trump's mobilization of allies under the guise of secondary sanctions reflects the ineffectiveness of U.S. unilateralism and a fundamental shift in the global economic power structure, reminiscent of Cold War-era alliances [3][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the current globalized economy has transformed, with interconnected supply chains and deep market integration, making it challenging for countries to sacrifice their own interests for the sake of alliances [3] - European nations, including Germany and France, openly oppose following the U.S. in imposing tariffs on China, indicating a rejection of Trump's aggressive strategy [3] - China's negotiation team demonstrates confidence due to its comprehensive industrial system, the importance of the Chinese market for multinational corporations, and a diversified network of international partnerships through mechanisms like RCEP and BRICS [3][4] Group 3 - The essence of the trade dispute is framed as a struggle over the distribution of global development benefits, with rare earth issues symbolizing supply chain security and equitable resource management [4][5] - The articles suggest that the confrontation between economic nationalism and global interconnectedness necessitates the establishment of a new cooperation philosophy in the international community [5]

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]

Group 1 - The conference held by Guotai Junan Securities on June 4-5, 2023, focused on the theme "Tide Rising in the East, New Quality Leading" and attracted over 200 speakers and nearly 1000 executives from listed companies, setting new records for participation and engagement [2][4] - Guotai Junan's Chairman Zhu Jian emphasized the importance of a series of incremental policies introduced since September 2022, which have significantly boosted social confidence and laid a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [4] - The conference featured discussions on various hot topics, including new productive forces, consumption expansion, structural reforms, and the evolution of the Middle East situation, showcasing insights from prominent figures in finance and academia [4][8] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025 was a key focus, with Guotai Junan's macro chief analyst Liang Zhonghua discussing the restructuring of the global economic and monetary systems, highlighting risks related to the US dollar and potential inflation [6][8] - The strategy chief analyst Fang Yi presented a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, indicating a transition towards a "transformation bull" market driven by policy measures aimed at stabilizing asset prices and boosting demand [9] - The conference also included a variety of forums discussing European market investment prospects and wealth management strategies, featuring insights from international guests and renowned investors [9][10] Group 3 - The event utilized the Daohe APP to provide professional investors with live streaming and content related to mid-year investment strategies, enhancing engagement and accessibility for a broader audience [10] - The live broadcast of the conference received significant attention, with over 360,000 views, indicating strong interest in the insights shared during the event [10]