Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is adopting a more cautious stance on inflation, with potential for gradual acceleration due to rising labor costs, distribution expenses, and a weak yen [1] - The BOJ's meeting minutes indicate that if economic and price trends align with forecasts, further interest rate hikes may become an option [1] - A committee member noted that recent food price increases are influenced by structural factors rather than temporary supply issues, suggesting a more persistent inflationary environment [1] Group 2 - Despite maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, there are significant internal divisions regarding the pace of tightening, with some members advocating for immediate rate hikes due to potential imported inflation risks [2] - The BOJ's latest economic outlook predicts core CPI for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 at 2.7%, 1.9%, and 2.0%, with core-core CPI expectations even higher, indicating inflation pressures above the 2% target [2] - There is a tension between tightening monetary policy and expanding fiscal measures, as the government considers suspending the 8% food consumption tax to alleviate cost pressures, which could lead to significant revenue losses [3]

Macro News - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan for the management and service system of digital RMB, which will officially launch on January 1, 2026 [1] Tariff Adjustments - The State Council Tariff Commission has released the 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan, effective from January 1, 2026, which includes a temporary import tariff rate lower than the most-favored-nation rate for 935 items to enhance the linkage between domestic and international markets [2] Domestic Aviation Fuel Surcharge - Starting from January 5, 2026, the domestic aviation fuel surcharge will be reduced, with a fee of 10 yuan for flights under 800 kilometers and 20 yuan for flights over 800 kilometers, representing a reduction of 10 yuan and 20 yuan respectively [5] Institutional Insights - According to Yu Yongding, the key to maintaining China's economic growth rate at 5% next year lies in the expansion of fiscal policy, emphasizing that increasing infrastructure investment is an effective tool to address insufficient effective demand [6] - Everbright Securities predicts that the profitability of the midstream industry will continue to show a positive trend [7]

Core Viewpoint - The investment scale in China is expected to be extremely large over the next five years, with infrastructure investment being a key driver for economic growth starting in 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Infrastructure Investment - Economic growth in China is projected to rely heavily on infrastructure investment, which is crucial for maintaining a growth rate of around 5% [1] - The expansion of fiscal policy will play a significant role in determining whether the economic growth target can be achieved [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt - The central government has considerable fiscal policy space, with strong demand from residents for government bonds [1] - There is potential to increase the deficit ratio to around 5%, which would enable the central government to issue a large amount of debt to support infrastructure investment [1]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Group 1 - The election of high-profile politician Kishi Nobumasa as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to lead to Japan's first female prime minister, which has resulted in market optimism regarding expansionary fiscal policies in Japan [1] - The Tokyo stock market saw significant gains, with the Nikkei index rising by 1,831.54 points to reach 47,601.04 points, reflecting a 4% increase [1] - The TSE index also experienced an increase, rising by 74.61 points to 3,203.78 points, marking a 2.38% gain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing dispute regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve building is amplifying internal divisions within the Trump administration and challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and other senior officials assert the need to respect the Federal Reserve's policy autonomy, while some advisors are pushing for the legal possibility of removing Chairman Powell from office [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining market expectations and investor confidence in dollar assets, especially amid rising fiscal deficits in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Monetary Policy - Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate fiscal burdens, aiming to reduce government borrowing costs to support his tax cut plans [3][4]. - Some advisors in Trump's camp view the current decline in inflation and cooling labor market as an opportunity to push for interest rate cuts, indicating a systematic plan rather than a spontaneous political move [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Powell indicated that potential interest rate cuts later this year would depend on data rather than political motivations, highlighting the risks of using monetary policy to address fiscal policy gaps [4]. - The tension between monetary policy independence and fiscal policy expansion is expected to intensify as the election season approaches, with Trump likely to leverage interest rate policies as a campaign tool [4][5].

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 我们测算二季度国债净融资规模约1 . 7 7万亿元，较往年同期高出约7 0 0 0亿元；地方债总发行规模为2 . 8万亿元，净发行规模约2 万亿元。货币政策长期维持支持性立场，随着财政政策扩张发力，货币配合的必要性提升，可以通过降准、扩大公开市场操作 规模等方式增加流动性供给。但短期来看，政策余量充足而不急于全部落地，结合近期股市修复韧性强，经济数据超预期，汇 率压力仍存等因素来看，操作时点上或有更多考量。 ▍ 一季度政府债供给情况。 国债方面，一季度净融资规模超过1 . 4万亿元，占全年计划6 . 6 6万亿元的2 2%。由于全年计划发行规模较大，因此即便在一季 度发行进度明显快于往年同期，剩余发行额度仍然超过5万亿元，远高于往年同期剩余额度的水平。地方债方面，一季度地方 政府债券发行规模达2 . 8 4万亿元，创历史新高，其中特殊再融资债贡献主要增量，新增债发行偏慢。 ▍ 二季度政府债供给预测。 ▍ 风险因素： 货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于当日发布的《 晨会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that fiscal easing has intensified in March, with significant support for economic growth from expanded fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy Analysis - In the first quarter, the broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.6% [1] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in March rebounded sharply to 10.1% from 2.9% in January-February, indicating strong spending momentum [1] - Notable increases in spending were observed in infrastructure-related areas such as agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation and environmental protection, aligning with the high growth in infrastructure investment in March [1] Fiscal Deficit and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal deficit in March reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting an intensified fiscal policy expansion [1] - Looking ahead, the implementation of tariff policies in April may disrupt exports, highlighting the necessity for further fiscal easing in the second quarter [1] - The stability of fiscal revenue growth is crucial for the sustainability of fiscal expansion [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on April 8, 2025, including wide - range oscillations for stock index futures, weak oscillations for gold and copper futures, and strong oscillations for silver, nickel, rebar, iron ore, and glass futures, while natural rubber and 20 - number rubber futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 8, IF2506 has support levels at 3350 and 3300 points and resistance levels at 3475 and 3498 points; IH2506 has support at 2355 and 2294 points and resistance at 2454 and 2500 points; IC2504 has support at 5145 and 5011 points and resistance at 5250 and 5331 points; IM2506 has support at 5333 and 5261 points and resistance at 5485 and 5550 points. In April 2025, they are likely to oscillate weakly [2][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 8, the ten - year T2506 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 109.37 and 109.68 yuan and support at 109.16 and 108.90 yuan; the thirty - year TL2506 is also likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 121.7 and 122.0 yuan and support at 120.7 and 120.1 yuan [3][36][40]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Gold**: On April 8, AU2506 is likely to oscillate weakly with support at 706.9 and 701.0 yuan/gram and resistance at 728.0 and 732.3 yuan/gram. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 750.0 and 780.0 yuan/gram and support at 700.0 and 691.8 yuan/gram [40][41]. - **Silver**: On April 8, AG2506 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 7827 and 7846 yuan/kg and support at 7614 and 7535 yuan/kg. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [46][47]. - **Copper**: On April 8, CU2505 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 72100 and 71400 yuan/ton with resistance at 74700 and 76000 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [52]. - **Aluminum**: On April 8, AL2505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 19980 and 20130 yuan/ton and support at 19650 and 19500 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [58]. - **Nickel**: On April 8, NI2505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 121700 and 123300 yuan/ton and support at 117500 and 115450 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [62]. - **Tin**: On April 8, SN2505 is likely to oscillate widely with support at 263600 and 262600 yuan/ton and resistance at 275000 and 277200 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate widely [69]. - **Rebar**: On April 8, RB2510 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 3180 and 3202 yuan/ton and support at 3140 and 3113 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [72]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: On April 8, HC2510 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 3300 and 3323 yuan/ton and support at 3240 and 3210 yuan/ton [77]. - **Iron Ore**: On April 8, I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 732 and 737 yuan/ton and support at 716 and 710 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [79]. - **Glass**: On April 8, FG505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 1217 and 1243 yuan/ton and support at 1185 and 1159 yuan/ton [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: On April 8, RU2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton with resistance at 15200 and 15580 yuan/ton [84]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: On April 8, NR2505 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 12370 and 12210 yuan/ton with resistance at 13050 and 13200 yuan/ton [86][87]. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Policy signals include potential monetary policy adjustments like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and expansionary fiscal policies. The government aims to boost domestic consumption, stabilize the capital market, and relevant policies are expected to be rolled out [6]. - As of the end of March, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 32407 billion US dollars, up 134 billion US dollars from February, with an increase of 0.42%. The official gold reserve was 73.7 million ounces, an increase of 90,000 ounces from February [7]. - The EU plans to impose a 25% tariff on a series of US - imported goods starting from May 16, 2025, while removing American bourbon whiskey from the counter - tariff list [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of the US economy slipping into recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.0% to 0.5% [9].