宏观要闻 央行已出台数字人民币行动方案 据央视新闻从中国人民银行了解到，中国人民银行已经出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》，新一代数字 人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于2026年1月1日正式启动实施。 2026年关税调整方案出炉 据智通财经今日从飞常准获悉，其接航司通知，2026年1月5日零时起，下调国内航线旅客运输燃油附加费征收标准。其中800公里(含)以下航段向每位成人 旅客收取燃油费10元，800公里以上航段向每位成人旅客收取燃油费20元；分别下调10元和20元。 机构观点 余永定：明年中国经济增长的关键在于财政政策的扩张力度 在2025三亚·财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会上，中国社会科学院学部委员余永定在演讲中表示，中国明年经济增速是否可以维持在5%，关键在于 财政政策的扩张力度。历史经验告诉我们，提高基础设施投资增速是解决有效需求不足的有效政策工具，在长期促进经济稳定增长，在短期弥补有效需求不 足。他指出，关于中国投资效率低下的说法是片面的，衡量生产效率的指标包括劳动生产率、资本生产率或者资本产出率或者全要素生产率，中国的劳动生 产率是 ...

编辑 段文平 校对 张彦君 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者张晓翀）12月27日，中国社会科学院学部委员余永定在三亚·财经国际论坛暨 第五届三亚财富管理大会上表示，未来五年中国的投资规模将极其巨大。2026年启动经济增长主要还是 要靠基础设施投入，中国经济增速能否维持在5%水平，关键在于财政政策扩张力度。中国的中央财政 政策空间较大，居民对国债需求强劲，完全可以明显提高赤字率。如果把赤字率提高到5%左右，中央 政府完全可以进行大规模发债，以支持基建投资。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

截至记者发稿，日经股指上涨1831.54点，至47601.04点，涨幅4%；东证股指上涨74.61点，至3203.78 点，涨幅2.38%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 由于高市早苗当选自民党总裁，有望成为日本首位女首相，市场普遍认为日本财政政策将趋于扩张，东 京股市两大股指6日开盘大涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing dispute regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve building is amplifying internal divisions within the Trump administration and challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and other senior officials assert the need to respect the Federal Reserve's policy autonomy, while some advisors are pushing for the legal possibility of removing Chairman Powell from office [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining market expectations and investor confidence in dollar assets, especially amid rising fiscal deficits in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Monetary Policy - Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate fiscal burdens, aiming to reduce government borrowing costs to support his tax cut plans [3][4]. - Some advisors in Trump's camp view the current decline in inflation and cooling labor market as an opportunity to push for interest rate cuts, indicating a systematic plan rather than a spontaneous political move [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Powell indicated that potential interest rate cuts later this year would depend on data rather than political motivations, highlighting the risks of using monetary policy to address fiscal policy gaps [4]. - The tension between monetary policy independence and fiscal policy expansion is expected to intensify as the election season approaches, with Trump likely to leverage interest rate policies as a campaign tool [4][5].

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 我们测算二季度国债净融资规模约1 . 7 7万亿元，较往年同期高出约7 0 0 0亿元；地方债总发行规模为2 . 8万亿元，净发行规模约2 万亿元。货币政策长期维持支持性立场，随着财政政策扩张发力，货币配合的必要性提升，可以通过降准、扩大公开市场操作 规模等方式增加流动性供给。但短期来看，政策余量充足而不急于全部落地，结合近期股市修复韧性强，经济数据超预期，汇 率压力仍存等因素来看，操作时点上或有更多考量。 ▍ 一季度政府债供给情况。 国债方面，一季度净融资规模超过1 . 4万亿元，占全年计划6 . 6 6万亿元的2 2%。由于全年计划发行规模较大，因此即便在一季 度发行进度明显快于往年同期，剩余发行额度仍然超过5万亿元，远高于往年同期剩余额度的水平。地方债方面，一季度地方 政府债券发行规模达2 . 8 4万亿元，创历史新高，其中特殊再融资债贡献主要增量，新增债发行偏慢。 ▍ 二季度政府债供给预测。 ▍ 风险因素： 货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于当日发布的《 晨会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that fiscal easing has intensified in March, with significant support for economic growth from expanded fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy Analysis - In the first quarter, the broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.6% [1] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in March rebounded sharply to 10.1% from 2.9% in January-February, indicating strong spending momentum [1] - Notable increases in spending were observed in infrastructure-related areas such as agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation and environmental protection, aligning with the high growth in infrastructure investment in March [1] Fiscal Deficit and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal deficit in March reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting an intensified fiscal policy expansion [1] - Looking ahead, the implementation of tariff policies in April may disrupt exports, highlighting the necessity for further fiscal easing in the second quarter [1] - The stability of fiscal revenue growth is crucial for the sustainability of fiscal expansion [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on April 8, 2025, including wide - range oscillations for stock index futures, weak oscillations for gold and copper futures, and strong oscillations for silver, nickel, rebar, iron ore, and glass futures, while natural rubber and 20 - number rubber futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 8, IF2506 has support levels at 3350 and 3300 points and resistance levels at 3475 and 3498 points; IH2506 has support at 2355 and 2294 points and resistance at 2454 and 2500 points; IC2504 has support at 5145 and 5011 points and resistance at 5250 and 5331 points; IM2506 has support at 5333 and 5261 points and resistance at 5485 and 5550 points. In April 2025, they are likely to oscillate weakly [2][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 8, the ten - year T2506 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 109.37 and 109.68 yuan and support at 109.16 and 108.90 yuan; the thirty - year TL2506 is also likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 121.7 and 122.0 yuan and support at 120.7 and 120.1 yuan [3][36][40]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Gold**: On April 8, AU2506 is likely to oscillate weakly with support at 706.9 and 701.0 yuan/gram and resistance at 728.0 and 732.3 yuan/gram. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 750.0 and 780.0 yuan/gram and support at 700.0 and 691.8 yuan/gram [40][41]. - **Silver**: On April 8, AG2506 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 7827 and 7846 yuan/kg and support at 7614 and 7535 yuan/kg. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [46][47]. - **Copper**: On April 8, CU2505 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 72100 and 71400 yuan/ton with resistance at 74700 and 76000 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [52]. - **Aluminum**: On April 8, AL2505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 19980 and 20130 yuan/ton and support at 19650 and 19500 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [58]. - **Nickel**: On April 8, NI2505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 121700 and 123300 yuan/ton and support at 117500 and 115450 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [62]. - **Tin**: On April 8, SN2505 is likely to oscillate widely with support at 263600 and 262600 yuan/ton and resistance at 275000 and 277200 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate widely [69]. - **Rebar**: On April 8, RB2510 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 3180 and 3202 yuan/ton and support at 3140 and 3113 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [72]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: On April 8, HC2510 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 3300 and 3323 yuan/ton and support at 3240 and 3210 yuan/ton [77]. - **Iron Ore**: On April 8, I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 732 and 737 yuan/ton and support at 716 and 710 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [79]. - **Glass**: On April 8, FG505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 1217 and 1243 yuan/ton and support at 1185 and 1159 yuan/ton [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: On April 8, RU2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton with resistance at 15200 and 15580 yuan/ton [84]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: On April 8, NR2505 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 12370 and 12210 yuan/ton with resistance at 13050 and 13200 yuan/ton [86][87]. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Policy signals include potential monetary policy adjustments like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and expansionary fiscal policies. The government aims to boost domestic consumption, stabilize the capital market, and relevant policies are expected to be rolled out [6]. - As of the end of March, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 32407 billion US dollars, up 134 billion US dollars from February, with an increase of 0.42%. The official gold reserve was 73.7 million ounces, an increase of 90,000 ounces from February [7]. - The EU plans to impose a 25% tariff on a series of US - imported goods starting from May 16, 2025, while removing American bourbon whiskey from the counter - tariff list [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of the US economy slipping into recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.0% to 0.5% [9].