Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

截至记者发稿，日经股指上涨1831.54点，至47601.04点，涨幅4%；东证股指上涨74.61点，至3203.78 点，涨幅2.38%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 由于高市早苗当选自民党总裁，有望成为日本首位女首相，市场普遍认为日本财政政策将趋于扩张，东 京股市两大股指6日开盘大涨。 ...

一场原本看似围绕美联储大楼翻修的纷争，正在演变为特朗普政府内部分歧的放大器，甚至引发了对美联 储独立性的再度挑战。财政部长贝森特等政府高层仍坚称要尊重央行的政策自主权，但另一些顾问和盟友 却借机鼓噪，重新酝酿解除美联储主席鲍威尔职务的法律可能性。这并非单一事件的偶发性发酵，而是特 朗普执政理念中对货币政策干预冲动的又一次回潮。 美联储主席鲍威尔日前在证词中提到："在任期内，没有人愿意对一栋历史建筑进行重大翻修。"此番言论 虽表面谈的是基础设施，实则透露出他对当前政治气候中不当干预的隐忧。特朗普上任以来，屡屡通过公 开舆论和行政手段向美联储施压，要求降息以减轻财政负担。这一策略背后，是他力图通过压低利率减少 政府借贷成本，从而为自身大规模减税计划"腾出空间"。 特朗普阵营中一些顾问从大选前就致力于寻找解除鲍威尔的方式，表明这已非一时情绪之下的政治动作， 而是系统性计划的一环。他们将当前通胀回落与就业市场降温视为推动降息的"窗口期"，试图借美联储"软 化"的表态重启政治干预。然而，即使在通胀暂时受控的情况下，贸然实施宽松政策也有可能激化未来的 通胀压力，尤其在国际油价波动和供应链仍不稳定的前提下。 鲍威尔虽然在证 ...

文 ｜ 明明 章立聪 史雨洁 杨宏宇 我们测算二季度国债净融资规模约1 . 7 7万亿元，较往年同期高出约7 0 0 0亿元；地方债总发行规模为2 . 8万亿元，净发行规模约2 万亿元。货币政策长期维持支持性立场，随着财政政策扩张发力，货币配合的必要性提升，可以通过降准、扩大公开市场操作 规模等方式增加流动性供给。但短期来看，政策余量充足而不急于全部落地，结合近期股市修复韧性强，经济数据超预期，汇 率压力仍存等因素来看，操作时点上或有更多考量。 ▍ 一季度政府债供给情况。 国债方面，一季度净融资规模超过1 . 4万亿元，占全年计划6 . 6 6万亿元的2 2%。由于全年计划发行规模较大，因此即便在一季 度发行进度明显快于往年同期，剩余发行额度仍然超过5万亿元，远高于往年同期剩余额度的水平。地方债方面，一季度地方 政府债券发行规模达2 . 8 4万亿元，创历史新高，其中特殊再融资债贡献主要增量，新增债发行偏慢。 ▍ 二季度政府债供给预测。 ▍ 风险因素： 货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于当日发布的《 晨会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that fiscal easing has intensified in March, with significant support for economic growth from expanded fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy Analysis - In the first quarter, the broad fiscal expenditure (general public budget + government funds) increased by 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.6% [1] - The growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in March rebounded sharply to 10.1% from 2.9% in January-February, indicating strong spending momentum [1] - Notable increases in spending were observed in infrastructure-related areas such as agriculture, forestry, water affairs, and energy conservation and environmental protection, aligning with the high growth in infrastructure investment in March [1] Fiscal Deficit and Future Outlook - The broad fiscal deficit in March reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, reflecting an intensified fiscal policy expansion [1] - Looking ahead, the implementation of tariff policies in April may disrupt exports, highlighting the necessity for further fiscal easing in the second quarter [1] - The stability of fiscal revenue growth is crucial for the sustainability of fiscal expansion [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on April 8, 2025, including wide - range oscillations for stock index futures, weak oscillations for gold and copper futures, and strong oscillations for silver, nickel, rebar, iron ore, and glass futures, while natural rubber and 20 - number rubber futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 8, IF2506 has support levels at 3350 and 3300 points and resistance levels at 3475 and 3498 points; IH2506 has support at 2355 and 2294 points and resistance at 2454 and 2500 points; IC2504 has support at 5145 and 5011 points and resistance at 5250 and 5331 points; IM2506 has support at 5333 and 5261 points and resistance at 5485 and 5550 points. In April 2025, they are likely to oscillate weakly [2][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 8, the ten - year T2506 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 109.37 and 109.68 yuan and support at 109.16 and 108.90 yuan; the thirty - year TL2506 is also likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 121.7 and 122.0 yuan and support at 120.7 and 120.1 yuan [3][36][40]. - **Commodity Futures**: - **Gold**: On April 8, AU2506 is likely to oscillate weakly with support at 706.9 and 701.0 yuan/gram and resistance at 728.0 and 732.3 yuan/gram. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 750.0 and 780.0 yuan/gram and support at 700.0 and 691.8 yuan/gram [40][41]. - **Silver**: On April 8, AG2506 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 7827 and 7846 yuan/kg and support at 7614 and 7535 yuan/kg. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [46][47]. - **Copper**: On April 8, CU2505 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 72100 and 71400 yuan/ton with resistance at 74700 and 76000 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [52]. - **Aluminum**: On April 8, AL2505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 19980 and 20130 yuan/ton and support at 19650 and 19500 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [58]. - **Nickel**: On April 8, NI2505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 121700 and 123300 yuan/ton and support at 117500 and 115450 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [62]. - **Tin**: On April 8, SN2505 is likely to oscillate widely with support at 263600 and 262600 yuan/ton and resistance at 275000 and 277200 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate widely [69]. - **Rebar**: On April 8, RB2510 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 3180 and 3202 yuan/ton and support at 3140 and 3113 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [72]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: On April 8, HC2510 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 3300 and 3323 yuan/ton and support at 3240 and 3210 yuan/ton [77]. - **Iron Ore**: On April 8, I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 732 and 737 yuan/ton and support at 716 and 710 yuan/ton. In April 2025, it is likely to oscillate weakly [79]. - **Glass**: On April 8, FG505 is likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 1217 and 1243 yuan/ton and support at 1185 and 1159 yuan/ton [83]. - **Natural Rubber**: On April 8, RU2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton with resistance at 15200 and 15580 yuan/ton [84]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: On April 8, NR2505 is likely to oscillate weakly and may test support at 12370 and 12210 yuan/ton with resistance at 13050 and 13200 yuan/ton [86][87]. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Policy signals include potential monetary policy adjustments like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and expansionary fiscal policies. The government aims to boost domestic consumption, stabilize the capital market, and relevant policies are expected to be rolled out [6]. - As of the end of March, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 32407 billion US dollars, up 134 billion US dollars from February, with an increase of 0.42%. The official gold reserve was 73.7 million ounces, an increase of 90,000 ounces from February [7]. - The EU plans to impose a 25% tariff on a series of US - imported goods starting from May 16, 2025, while removing American bourbon whiskey from the counter - tariff list [9]. - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of the US economy slipping into recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.0% to 0.5% [9].