11月分析:年初判断的国内零售增速呈现"前低中高后平"的走势已成定局。"双新政策"起到了稳定车市 和调节增长幅度的作用。下半年价格"反内卷"有效地得到了遏制。今年的插混车在国内外两个市场出现 极大反差，即国内放慢增速、出口加速增长。11月，新能源乘用车在国内零售渗透率已达59.4%，其在 自主品牌中的新能源车渗透率达79.6%；其在豪华车中的新能源车渗透率达38.8%。11月，乘用车出口 (含整车与CKD)呈现同环比双增长态势。 | 单位:辆 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NO• | 自 厂商 | 2025.11 | 环比 | 同比 | 份额 | | 1 | 比亚迪汽车 | 474,921 | 8.7% | -5.8% | 15.8% | | 2 | 吉利汽车 | 310,428 | 1.1% | 24.1% % | 10.4% | | 3 | 奇瑞汽车 | 262,475 | -3.1% | -3.6% | 8.8% | | 4 | 长安汽车 | 179,650 | -0.8% | -4.5% | 6.0% | | 5 | 汽大众 | ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 11 月国内新能源乘用车零售增速 7%， 年累计增速 20% ★ 动态跟踪 国内市场，11 月，乘用车零售 226.3 万辆，同比-7%，新能 源乘用车零售 135.4 万辆，同比 7%，新能源零售渗透率 59.8%； 1-11 月，国内乘用车、新能源零售分别累计 2,151.9 万辆、1,150.4 万辆，分别同比 6%、20%。 新 能 源 与 海外市场，10 月美国新能源汽车销量 9.4 万辆，同比下降 32.4%，环比下降 50.9%，1-10 月累计销量 142.5 万辆，同比增长 9.1%。新能源渗透率从 9 月的 15%骤降至 10 月的 7%。受到 9 月 30 日美联邦电动汽车税收抵免（7,500 美元）到期的影响，8、 9 月新能源汽车销量大幅前置，销量和渗透率连续创下历史新 高，10 月呈现断崖式下落，符合预期。展望后市，预期年累计 增速将继续回落，并向 0%趋近。去年四季度市场表现相对较强， 也对今年增速表现产生进一步拉低。 新 材 料 10 月欧洲市场新能源汽车销量 35.4 万辆，同比增长 36.4%， 1-10 月累计 ...

Core Insights - Global sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to reach 5.39 million units in Q3 2025, representing a 31% year-on-year increase, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) expected to account for 3.71 million units, a 48% increase, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) at 1.67 million units, a 4% increase [1] NEV Market Overview - BYD leads the BEV market with a 15.4% market share, while Tesla follows with 13.4% [2] - In the PHEV segment, BYD also holds the top position with a 27.9% market share, followed by AITO at 6.8% [2] Company Performance - BYD remains the BEV sales champion in Q3, although its sales decreased compared to Q2 [4] - Tesla showed strong performance in Q3 with a 29% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by U.S. market subsidies and growth in China [4] - Geely and Leapmotor demonstrated significant growth, achieving market shares of 6% and 4.1% respectively, surpassing Xpeng for two consecutive quarters [4] - Volkswagen's ranking fell to seventh due to a decline in the Chinese market, offsetting gains in Europe and the U.S. [4] - Hyundai ranked ninth with a quarterly decline but year-on-year growth [4] - BMW's BEV sales continued to decrease, posing challenges to its annual growth targets [4] PHEV Market Dynamics - BYD faces saturation and intense competition in the Chinese PHEV market, with a quarterly increase but year-on-year decline in sales [5] - AITO, Chery, and Geely have risen to the second to fourth positions, with Chery's market share increasing to 6.6% [5] - Li Auto, despite being the second in sales in Q2, experienced both quarterly and yearly declines due to increasing competition from REEV models [5] - European brands like Mercedes-Benz and BMW saw quarterly declines but performed better than the previous year in the U.S. and parts of Europe [5] Future Projections - TrendForce forecasts global NEV sales to reach 20.43 million units in 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase [5] - For 2026, despite regional subsidy policy adjustments leading to market disparities, global NEV sales are expected to rise to 22.8 million units, a 12% growth [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) market, with a production volume of 12.672 million units from January to October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and a cumulative penetration rate of 46.4% [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The NEV market in China continues to show strong growth, driven by policy support, product innovation, and increased exports, positioning it as a core driver of the automotive industry [2] - In terms of vehicle types, as of September 2025, passenger cars accounted for 45.1% of the market share, while SUVs and MPVs held 43.9% and 3.6% respectively, with commercial vehicles like trucks and buses at 3.9% and 3.2% [3] Group 2: Battery Technology - The installed capacity of power batteries for NEVs reached 73.7 GWh in September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 39.9% [4] - The average battery capacity per vehicle was 53.0 kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [4] - The market structure for battery cells shows that square cells dominate with a 98.6% share, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) continues to grow in market share due to its safety, cost, and longevity advantages [5] Group 3: Battery Suppliers - The top three battery manufacturers held a market share of 72.2% as of September 2025, with CATL leading at 42.1% [6] - Companies like Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) and others have shown significant growth, with some companies like Zhongchuang Innovation and Ruipu Lanjun experiencing year-on-year increases of 102.0% and 143.2% respectively [6] Group 4: Electric Motor Suppliers - The top ten electric motor suppliers accounted for 62.7% of the market share, with all companies in this group showing a month-on-month increase in supply [7] - Notable performers include Saike Technology, which benefited from high sales of Wuling vehicles, and Grebo, which saw growth due to its partnership with Geely [7] Group 5: Sodium-Ion Battery Development - Sodium-ion battery technology is rapidly advancing, with key advantages in low-temperature performance, fast charging capabilities, and safety [9] - Current applications for sodium-ion batteries include home energy storage, large-scale energy storage, two-wheeled vehicles, electric vehicles, and backup power sources [9] - Major companies like CATL, Zhongke Haina, and BYD are accelerating their research and development efforts in sodium-ion battery products [9]

Overall Industry Performance - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units respectively, with month-on-month growth of 2.5% and 3%, and year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 8.8% [2] - Cumulatively from January to October, production and sales totaled 27.692 million and 27.687 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2% and 12.4%, indicating a steady development pace in the industry [2] Passenger Vehicle Segment - In October, passenger vehicle production and sales were 2.995 million and 2.961 million units, with month-on-month growth of 3.3% and 3.6%, and year-on-year growth of 10.7% and 7.5% [2] - From January to October, passenger vehicle production and sales reached 24.237 million and 24.209 million units, with year-on-year growth of 13.5% and 12.9%, slightly above the overall automotive industry growth rates [2] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEVs continued to lead the market, with production and sales in October reaching 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, marking year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [3] - NEVs accounted for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales in October, indicating that they have become a mainstream force in the automotive market [3] - Cumulatively, from January to October, NEV production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million units, with year-on-year growth of 33.1% and 32.7%, and a cumulative market share of 46.7% [3] Export Performance - In October, total automotive exports reached 666,000 units, with month-on-month growth of 2.1% and year-on-year growth of 22.9% [4] - Cumulatively from January to October, automotive exports totaled 5.616 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.7% [4] - NEV exports showed significant growth, with 256,000 units exported in October, representing month-on-month growth of 15.4% and year-on-year growth of 99.9% [4] - From January to October, NEV exports totaled 2.014 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 90.4%, showcasing strong competitiveness in the global market [4]

Group 1: Policy Adjustments and Market Trends - Hubei Province announced adjustments to the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy policy, suspending the scrap update subsidy and optimizing the issuance of qualification vouchers to better meet consumer demand and promote healthy development of the automotive market [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that from January to October, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.69 million units, with a year-on-year growth of over 10%. Notably, in October, new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6% [1][2] - The implementation of the national trade-in policy has shown significant effects, with market order improving and price competition becoming more rational, as new car launches are breaking previous price limits rather than simply reducing prices [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - John Roth will take over as the new president of General Motors China starting December 1, succeeding Steve Hill, who will assume a new role as Senior Vice President of Global Export and Retail Innovation [5][6] - The leadership change at General Motors aims to support the ongoing recovery of the Chinese market and promote growth in global exports [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Black Sesame Intelligence announced that its flagship product, the Huashan A1000 chip, has been successfully integrated into Desay SV's new low-speed unmanned vehicle, enhancing the safety of logistics operations [4]

Core Insights - In October, China's automotive industry achieved record production and sales, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reaching 51.6% of total sales, indicating a significant shift towards high-quality development in the sector [1][4]. Production and Sales Performance - In October, automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units respectively, with month-on-month increases of 2.5% and 3%, and year-on-year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [2]. - For the first ten months of the year, cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2% and 12.4% [2]. - Passenger vehicles showed strong performance in October, with production and sales of 2.995 million and 2.961 million units, respectively, marking month-on-month increases of 3.3% and 3.6% [2]. - Chinese brand passenger vehicles accounted for 72.5% of total passenger vehicle sales in October, with sales of 2.148 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [2]. Commercial Vehicle Market - The commercial vehicle market also showed positive trends in October, with production and sales of 364,000 and 361,000 units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 25.4% and 21% [3]. - Notably, truck sales reached 311,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, and heavy truck sales surged by 60% [3]. New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEV production and sales in October were 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20%, marking a significant milestone as NEVs constituted 51.6% of total new vehicle sales [4]. - The rapid growth of NEVs is characterized by diversification, with pure electric vehicle sales at 1.109 million units (up 30.7%) and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales at 605,000 units (up 69.8%) [4]. - The increase in NEV market penetration is attributed to advancements in technology, leading to improved product competitiveness and reduced costs [4]. Export Growth - NEV exports reached 256,000 units in October, with a month-on-month increase of 15.4% and a year-on-year increase of 99.9% [5]. - For the first ten months, NEV exports totaled 2.014 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 90.4%, showcasing China's global competitiveness in the NEV sector [5]. Policy and Market Demand - The rapid development of the NEV market is supported by government policies such as purchase subsidies and tax exemptions, which have effectively stimulated market demand [6]. - Consumer acceptance of NEVs continues to rise, with domestic sales of 1.459 million units in October, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [6]. - Future prospects for the automotive industry appear promising, with a focus on boosting consumption and optimizing policies to stabilize market expectations [6].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market has achieved a successful "Silver October" with retail sales of 2.242 million passenger vehicles in October, a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1%, but still the second highest monthly sales of the year, following September [1] - The wholesale volume for passenger vehicles reached 2.932 million units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 4.9% [1] - The production volume was 2.951 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.4% and a month-on-month growth of 3.7% [1] - Exports of passenger vehicles, including complete vehicles and CKD, reached 568,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.7% and a month-on-month increase of 7.5% [1] New Energy Vehicle Market - The wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5% [2] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.282 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market reached 57.2% in October [2] - Exports of new energy passenger vehicles hit a historical high of 251,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 104.2% [2] Electric Vehicle Segment - In October, the wholesale volume of pure electric vehicles was 1.02 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.6% and a month-on-month increase of 7.5% [3] - The market share of pure electric vehicles reached 62.9%, while plug-in hybrids accounted for 29.6% and range-extended vehicles made up 7.5% [3] - The structure of new energy vehicle sales has shifted from 49% pure electric and 51% range-extended last year to 74% pure electric and 26% range-extended this year [3] Domestic Brand Performance - Domestic brands achieved retail sales of 1.55 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 4% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [3] - The domestic retail market share of independent brands reached 68.7%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The top five state-owned groups, including SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Chery, and BAIC, saw a combined sales growth of 17% in October [4] - The market share of independent new energy brands from traditional automakers reached 15%, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market in Chengdu and the broader Southwest region of China is highlighted, with significant growth in sales and production, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Growth and Performance - As of June 2023, Chengdu's NEV ownership reached 1.08 million, leading non-restricted cities and achieving its 2025 target ahead of schedule [3]. - In 2024, Chengdu is projected to have a total vehicle sales of 665,000, with NEV sales reaching 309,000 and a penetration rate of nearly 50% [4]. - The NEV production in Sichuan province for the first half of 2023 was 144,000 units, accounting for 27.6% of the province's total vehicle production, a 16.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Regional Market Dynamics - The Southwest region, including cities like Chongqing, Yunnan, and Guizhou, is experiencing rapid NEV sales growth, with Chongqing at 236,000 units (34% increase), Yunnan at 210,000 units (42% increase), and Guizhou at 184,000 units (44% increase) in 2024 [5]. - The Chengdu Auto Show serves as a critical platform for car manufacturers to gauge market preferences and adjust strategies based on consumer feedback [4][10]. Group 3: Policy Support and Incentives - The Sichuan provincial government has implemented a vehicle replacement subsidy program, offering up to 15,000 yuan for NEV purchases, contributing to a near double-digit growth in vehicle deliveries [6]. - Additional subsidies for vehicle replacement in Chongqing and during the Chengdu Auto Show are aimed at boosting NEV sales [6]. Group 4: Infrastructure Challenges - The rapid increase in NEVs has led to a shortage of charging infrastructure in the Southwest, with over 90% of charging stations concentrated in urban areas, particularly Chengdu [8]. - Plans are in place to build 2.93 million charging stations in Sichuan by 2030, addressing the imbalance in charging infrastructure [8]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - The Chengdu Auto Show showcased new charging technologies, including BYD's "Megawatt Flash Charge" and CATL's sodium-ion battery, aimed at enhancing charging efficiency and battery performance [9]. - Several extended-range models were introduced to alleviate range anxiety among consumers in the Southwest region, with notable features tailored to local climate conditions [9].

Core Insights - The domestic electric vehicle market is experiencing significant changes, with NIO's new model, the L90, achieving impressive sales and positioning the company for growth [1][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - NIO's L90 model sold 7,927 units in the week of July 28 to August 3, ranking fourth in the industry [1]. - The L90 model, launched recently, delivered 1,976 units within three days, making it one of the top three in the large SUV sales category [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - The success of the L90 has positively impacted the overall NIO brand, creating a "spillover effect" that has boosted sales of the more affordable L60 model and other vehicles under the NIO brand [2]. - The L60 model has seen a significant sales rebound, attracting consumers who initially came to experience the L90 [2]. Group 3: Product Strength and Infrastructure - The strong sales of the L90 are attributed to NIO's decade-long accumulation of electric vehicle technology and its comprehensive charging and battery-swapping infrastructure, combined with competitive pricing [4]. Group 4: Institutional Support - Leading investment institutions have expressed optimism about NIO's future, with Citigroup highlighting the L90 as the best value product in the seven-seat electric SUV market [5]. - Other firms, including Daiwa Capital, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and CICC, have also provided positive assessments of the L90's market potential and NIO's growth prospects [5].