中金研究 2026年1月23-26日期间，美日汇率由159附近下行至154附近，日元大幅升值约3%，投资者关心日本与美国是否联合干预了汇率，日元今后能否持续升 值，我们在本篇报告中详细分析。2022年以来我们开启了"日本外汇干预"系列报告，目前已发布《 日本外汇干预：以时间换空间，但效果或有限 》、 《 日本外汇干预#2:"隐形"外汇干预 》、《 日本外汇干预#3：外汇干预的"预习" 》、《 日本外汇干预#4: 24年4月的干预？ 》，《 日本外汇干预#5： 160或无外汇干预 》，本篇为第六篇报告。 点击小程序查看报告原文 结论：我们认为日元短期升值或来自于日本与美国的"汇率检查"的影响，而非"外汇干预"。今后若日元继续贬值，我们认为日本当局实施外汇干预的可能 性较大。关于未来日元汇率的方向，我们认为仅凭日本与美国当局的"汇率检查"或难以带来日元趋势性升值。 什么是汇率检查？是外汇干预的前奏 "汇率检查"（Rate Check）是指中央银行等在进行外汇干预的准备阶段，向银行等市场参与者询问交易价格水平的行为。具体而言，中央银行会向市场参 与者发出与外汇干预操作类似的订单请求，在对方报出卖出价或买入价之后，往 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant pullback, with gold prices dropping over 3% and silver prices falling more than 6%, reversing the previous bullish trend. This rapid adjustment has notably suppressed market bullish sentiment [2][12]. Market Status - As of the latest morning session, the main gold futures contract (2602) has fallen back below the 1000 mark, but showed signs of resistance at previous support levels around 970, indicating that the overall technical structure remains relatively stable [3][12]. - The main silver futures contract (2602) is fluctuating around the 18000 mark, and has not breached short-term support levels near 17609, maintaining a generally strong upward bias [3][12]. Potential Reasons for Recent Adjustments 1. **Margin Policy Adjustments**: The CME Group raised the margin requirements for gold and silver futures on December 29, aiming to address recent market volatility and enhance risk coverage. This has increased trading costs and pressure on positions. Concurrently, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also raised margin ratios and price limits, reinforcing tightening regulatory expectations domestically. This dual pressure has dampened trading enthusiasm and leverage space [5][14]. 2. **Bank of Japan's Rate Hike Signals**: The latest minutes from the Bank of Japan indicate that several members believe actual interest rates remain very low, suggesting potential future rate hikes. The recent increase of the benchmark rate to 0.75% marks a 30-year high, which may lead to a reversal of popular "carry trades," where investors sell high-yield assets like precious metals to buy back yen for low-cost financing. This expectation has influenced market sentiment negatively towards dollar-denominated assets like gold and silver [6][15]. 3. **Pre-Holiday Position Reductions**: In light of the aforementioned factors, market participants have shown a clear tendency to reduce positions ahead of the New Year holiday. Speculative funds that previously drove prices up are now exiting due to concerns over holiday risks, increased costs from margin hikes, and a desire to lock in profits from recent price increases. Investors are advised to remain cautious and manage positions carefully as market focus may shift to macro events post-holiday [7][16].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed market sentiment regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate, driven by expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike and diverging policies between the Federal Reserve and the BoJ [1][2] - The BoJ is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% during its meeting on December 18-19, with over 90% probability according to Bloomberg's survey [1] - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 10, reducing rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, but internal divisions within the Fed may support the USD and counteract some of the JPY's appreciation [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains bearish on the JPY despite rising interest rate expectations, primarily due to the significant US-Japan interest rate differential [2] - Institutions have differing forecasts for the USD/JPY exchange rate, with UBS raising its year-end target to 158, while JPMorgan predicts a decline to 148 if the Fed continues to cut rates [2] - Key short-term catalysts include the BoJ's interest rate decision, the Japanese Tankan survey, and US economic data, which could influence the exchange rate significantly [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in market performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with A-shares showing resilience due to positive signals from the Central Economic Work Conference, while Hong Kong stocks are pressured by weak earnings expectations and rising US Treasury yields [7][18][21] - The report notes that despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, US Treasury yields have recently increased, indicating that the liquidity environment may not be as favorable as expected, which could affect market risk appetite [9][14][19] - The upcoming "super data week" is crucial for validating the effectiveness of the Fed's easing policies and assessing inflation risks, with November CPI and employment data being particularly significant [19][20] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Bank of Japan will likely resume its interest rate hike cycle, which could lead to concerns about capital outflows and increased volatility in the market, although the impact is expected to be manageable due to prior market pricing [20][21] - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally is likely, driven by improved micro liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [25][29] - Investment recommendations include maintaining a core position in financial sectors with stable earnings and high dividend yields, while gradually shifting towards sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industry trends, particularly in the AI chain, renewable energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [25][26][29]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December, causing a rise in Japanese bond yields and concerns over the reversal of carry trades, leading to adjustments in global markets [1][5] - The U.S. "small non-farm" payrolls report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs in November, far below the expected increase of 10,000, which heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][5] - As of December 6, the market is pricing in an 86.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5] Group 2 - In China, the manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded in November but remained below the expansion threshold, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.2% (up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.5% (down 0.6 percentage points month-on-month) [1][6] - The production index and new orders index for November were 50.0% (up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month) and 49.2% (up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month), respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand [6] - The high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing PMIs showed varying degrees of decline, while the PMI for high-energy-consuming industries rebounded from low levels [6] Group 3 - Despite a cautious market sentiment ahead of significant macroeconomic events in mid-December, the A-share market experienced a slight increase, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and adjustments in insurance company risk factors [2][6] - Global commodity markets continued to rise, with non-ferrous metals leading the gains [2][6] - The overall news sentiment was positive, with potential measures to expand broker capital and adjust insurance company investment risk factors expected to bring considerable incremental funds to the market [2][6] Group 4 - From a mid-term perspective, the upward trend of the index remains intact, with the possibility of an early spring rally starting in January or February due to the short interval between the Lunar New Year and the National People's Congress [2][6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on three areas: high-dividend assets such as banks and coal, growth sectors like computing and electricity with mid-term fundamentals, and flexible opportunities in themes like commercial aerospace and robotics [2][7]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The report highlights the exposure of fiscal risks, indicating potential global liquidity shocks [3][7][18] - A shift from globalization to confrontation has disrupted the stable state of the global economy, with the long-term downward trend of 10-year US Treasury yields being broken [7][18] - The divergence between US Treasury yields and the dollar reflects an extreme pricing of fiscal risks [9][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic deflation expectations are easing, activating a persistent accumulation of excess liquidity [3][57] - The report notes that actual interest rates are declining from high levels, which alleviates the financing costs for various economic sectors [78] - The report indicates that the actual dollar index is building a mid-term top, which may relieve external pressures on the economic cycle [82] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing rapid rotation within a narrow range, driven by excess liquidity [3][57] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform due to the accumulation of excess liquidity since 2024 [118][121] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, robotics, and military industries, which have shown resilience amid trade tensions [117] Group 4: Industry Allocation Insights - The report emphasizes the correlation between excess liquidity and sectoral excess returns, particularly in sectors like electrical machinery and chemical materials [121][124] - The report suggests that the market is not driven by improved economic expectations but rather by key technological breakthroughs that shift deflation expectations [91] - The report indicates that the speed of industry rotation has increased, suggesting a dynamic market environment [104]