Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The report highlights the exposure of fiscal risks, indicating potential global liquidity shocks [3][7][18] - A shift from globalization to confrontation has disrupted the stable state of the global economy, with the long-term downward trend of 10-year US Treasury yields being broken [7][18] - The divergence between US Treasury yields and the dollar reflects an extreme pricing of fiscal risks [9][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic deflation expectations are easing, activating a persistent accumulation of excess liquidity [3][57] - The report notes that actual interest rates are declining from high levels, which alleviates the financing costs for various economic sectors [78] - The report indicates that the actual dollar index is building a mid-term top, which may relieve external pressures on the economic cycle [82] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing rapid rotation within a narrow range, driven by excess liquidity [3][57] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform due to the accumulation of excess liquidity since 2024 [118][121] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, robotics, and military industries, which have shown resilience amid trade tensions [117] Group 4: Industry Allocation Insights - The report emphasizes the correlation between excess liquidity and sectoral excess returns, particularly in sectors like electrical machinery and chemical materials [121][124] - The report suggests that the market is not driven by improved economic expectations but rather by key technological breakthroughs that shift deflation expectations [91] - The report indicates that the speed of industry rotation has increased, suggesting a dynamic market environment [104]

据报道，消息人士表示，日本财务省将考虑削减超长期债券的发行。日本政府顾问小组警告日债收益 率上升将对财政造成冲击。 此前，超长期日本国债收益率飙升，机构相继发出警告，日债危机会否触发？外溢冲击如何？浙商银 行财富管理部总行投顾周锦舜分析认为，日本财政扩张倾向叠加国债拍卖遇冷 ，市场担心超长日债 供需失衡。本次日元套息交易逆转对全球流动性带来的外溢冲击或相对可控。关注后续日债拍卖情况 以及日本央行会否入场干预。超长期日债目前已被低估，回调后价值有所凸显。 今日午后，日本股债汇明显异动，日本国债市场大涨。日本40年国债收益率跌超3%，至3.424%； 30年期国债收益率下跌20个基点至2.835%， 为自5月8日以来的最低水平；日本20年期国债收益率 跌17.5个基点。对应地，日本6年期以上国债全线上涨。美国长期限国债收益率也全线杀跌，美国30 年期国债大跌1.25%，20年期收益率大跌1.17%，10年期收益率跌近0.9%。 与此同时，汇市也有大变化。美元兑日元短线拉升超60点，目前报143.10。欧元兑美元半小时左右 走低约20点，报1.1375。美元指数重回99上方。日经指数午后也是持续拉升。截至收盘，日经 ...