美丽田园 20260112 摘要 服务业支持政策利好，美田公司通过拓展医美、生美及亚健康业务，丰 富服务场景，契合服务消费中长期增长逻辑，有望受益于政策红利。 高端消费市场表现坚挺，上海等一线城市社零数据增长显著。美田公司 客户群体对价格敏感度低，支撑其未来 30%的业绩增速预期。 美田公司会员群体集中于 30-50 岁高收入女性，直营门店主要位于一线 和新一线城市，精准定位高端消费人群。 美田公司通过信息化管理、精准推送、私域运营等方式提升客户粘性， 并拓展至医美领域，实现客户消费领域扩张，增强盈利能力。 预计美田公司 2025 年收入约 30 亿，同比增长 20%以上；调整后归母 净利润约 3.8 亿，同比增长近 40%。2026 年收入预计达 40 亿左右， 同比增长近 30%；调整后归母净利润约 4.5 亿，同比增长近 30%。 美田公司通过并购奈瑞儿、丝涟丽等品牌，增强品牌引流能力，提升供 应链管理与运营效率，改善利润率，实现外延式增长。 美田公司创始人具备医美产品进口经验，供应链管理能力强。与资生堂 签约合作，叠加信息化完善与低获客成本，有望持续优化利润空间。 Q&A 美田公司在 2026 年的增 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is transitioning to a high-income stage, with significant potential for consumption growth as the economic environment and consumer characteristics evolve. It is essential to effectively implement the decisions of the central government to stimulate consumption and improve livelihoods, thereby creating a virtuous cycle of economic development and social welfare [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption Growth Potential - Resident consumption in China has substantial growth potential, driven by changes in social and economic conditions [2]. - International experiences indicate that as countries transition to high-income status, there is typically a deceleration in consumption growth, but new growth drivers emerge. For instance, in the five years before reaching high-income status, OECD countries saw an average decline of 1.7 percentage points in consumption growth [3]. - The increase in economic development and urbanization is expected to drive service consumption growth, with service consumption's income elasticity being high. As income levels rise, the focus of consumer spending shifts from goods to services [3][4]. Group 2: Urbanization and Service Consumption - Urbanization leads to population concentration and industrial integration, which stimulates demand for services such as education, healthcare, and entertainment. The service consumption share is positively correlated with urbanization rates [4]. - In 2024, China's urbanization rate is projected to be 67%, still 9 percentage points lower than the average of similar high-income countries, indicating significant room for growth in service consumption [4]. Group 3: Diverse Consumer Preferences - There is a clear trend of consumption differentiation among various income, age, and regional groups, with digital technology enabling diverse consumer needs [4][6]. - Over 50% of lower-income groups allocate most of their income to daily necessities, while nearly 30% of higher-income groups are shifting towards development and enjoyment-oriented consumption [6]. - Different generational preferences are evident, with younger consumers valuing social attributes and experiences, while older consumers focus on practicality and essential goods [7]. Group 4: Quality and Value in Consumption - A significant portion of consumers prioritize cost-effectiveness, with over half indicating that price-performance ratio is their main concern when shopping [8]. - The demand for high-quality, cost-effective products is expected to grow, similar to trends observed in Japan during the 1990s, where consumers favored value-for-money products [8]. Group 5: Service Demand and Family Structure Changes - The trend towards smaller family units is increasing the demand for outsourced family services, such as elder care and childcare. The average household size in China has decreased from 3.1 to 2.62 persons per household from 2010 to 2020 [9]. - The market for household services reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in 2023, with an annual growth rate of about 20% from 2015 to 2023, indicating a strong demand for marketized services [9]. Group 6: Challenges in Consumption Growth - There is a growing pressure on residents' consumption capacity, with the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income in 2024 projected at 5.3%, a decline of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2019 [13]. - The supply and demand mismatch in the service sector needs to be addressed, as the service industry is lagging in development compared to high-income economies, with insufficient supply and quality issues in education, healthcare, and other sectors [14]. - Consumer expectations regarding product quality are not being met, with a significant number of complaints related to product quality and service issues, particularly in the elderly consumer market [15].