【财经日历】 华为Mate 80系列丨Mate X7及全场景新品发布会 阿里巴巴、蔚来发布财报 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46448.27 202.86 | | 0.44% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22872.01c 598.93 | | 2.69% | | 标普500 | 6705.12 | 102.13 | 1.55% | 当地时间周一，美股三大股指延续反弹，截至收盘，道指涨0.44%，纳指涨2.69%，标普500指数涨 1.55%。 科技股全线拉升，特斯拉涨6.8%，亚马逊涨2.5%，Meta涨3.2%，苹果涨1.6%，英伟达涨2.05%，甲骨文 涨0.78%，微软涨0.4%。 个股方面，谷歌母公司Alphabet大涨6.3%，市值逼近4万亿美元。谷歌上周发布了升级版AI模型Gemini 3。这家科技巨头旗下的谷歌云业务部门透露，已与北约通信与信息局签署一份合同，将为其提供安全 的主权云服务能力。 博通上涨11%，为标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数成分股中最大涨幅。汇丰银行将该股目标价从400美 元上调至5 ...

Group 1 - Yongying Fund has seen a "clean sweep" resignation of four billion-level fund managers this year, with the latest being Yang Fanying, who managed a total of 12.291 billion yuan in assets before her departure [1] - Yang Fanying's tenure lasted 8 years and 34 days, during which she achieved a cumulative return of 20.23% for the Yongying Huajia Credit Bond A fund, marking the best performance record for public fund management [1] - Other funds managed by Yang Fanying mostly yielded positive returns, although the Yongying Stable Enhanced Bond A fund experienced a decline of nearly 5% over her management period [1] Group 2 - The new generation fund manager, Ren Jie, successfully captured the current technology market trend with the Yongying Technology Smart Selection Mixed Fund, which has significantly outperformed competitors and is on track to secure the annual championship [2] - Several actively managed equity products under Yongying Fund, including Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection, Pharmaceutical Innovation Smart Selection, Semiconductor Industry Smart Selection, Digital Economy Smart Selection, and Emerging Consumer Smart Selection, have also shown strong annual returns [2]

Core Insights - Wells Fargo (WFC.US) reported a total market value of $530 billion in its Q3 2025 13F filing, reflecting a 2.02% increase from the previous quarter's $483 billion [1][2] Holdings Summary - The bank added 501 new stocks and increased holdings in 3,686 stocks while reducing positions in 2,068 stocks and completely selling out of 562 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 19.54% of the total market value [1][2] Top Holdings - Microsoft (MSFT.US) is the largest holding with approximately 33.72 million shares valued at about $17.47 billion, representing 3.32% of the portfolio [3][4] - Apple (AAPL.US) follows with around 59.99 million shares valued at approximately $15.27 billion, making up 2.90% of the portfolio [3][4] - The iShares S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US) ranks third with about 18.75 million shares valued at around $12.55 billion, accounting for 2.39% of the portfolio [3][4] - Nvidia (NVDA.US) is fourth with approximately 59.79 million shares valued at about $11.16 billion, representing 2.12% of the portfolio [3][4] - The iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT.US) is fifth with around 63.19 million shares valued at about $9.20 billion, making up 1.75% of the portfolio [3][4] Notable Changes - Wells Fargo increased its holdings in major tech companies, with Google (GOOGL.US) up by 17.96%, Amazon (AMZN.US) by 4.28%, Meta (META.US) by 11.89%, and Tesla (TSLA.US) by 24.07% [4] - The bank significantly increased its holdings in call options for the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US) by 66.40%, while reducing put options by 1.96% [4] Top Buys and Sells - The top five purchases included Apple, Google, Invesco QQQ Trust call options, Nvidia, and Broadcom (AVGO.US) [5] - The top five sales included SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), Accenture (ACN.US), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US), Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO.US), and Chubb Limited (CB.US) [5]

明明认为，2026年财政政策将更加积极，赤字率或将继续维持在4%左右，专项债额度有望提升并向项 目建设倾斜；货币政策方面，降准降息空间依然存在，结构性货币工具将持续发力，央行继续进行国债 买卖。宏观政策层面对经济的支持力度仍将延续。 中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 11月11日，中信证券在深圳举办2026年资本市场年会。 中信证券多位首席分析师认为，A股上市公司正陆续从本国敞口的本土化企业转型为全球敞口的跨国公 司。中国资本市场也正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场，A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。"十 五五"期间，中企在全球价值链分配中的位置有望进一步抬升，把份额优势转化为定价权，这是A股行 情迈向低波动慢牛的基础。展望2026年，从制造业定价权重估、企业出海深化到科技行情延续，市场或 呈现三大配置主线。 中国经济将延续波动中复苏的态势 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，中国经济有望延续波动中复苏的态势。他预计2025年中国经济将实现 5%左右的增长目标，2026年将保持在4.9%左右。考虑基数因素及政策节奏，2026年的经济增长可能呈 现前低后高的节奏。 低波动慢牛的预判之下，展望2026年，"中国资产的红利时代才 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current long-term cost-performance ratio of the technology sector is considered low, but short-term cost-performance issues have been sufficiently digested, suggesting a potential new round of technology market rally driven by industrial catalysts [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Spring 2026 is anticipated to be a phase peak for the A-share market, facing three challenges: 1) A critical verification period for demand-side dynamics may arise, where supply growth returns to low levels, potentially improving supply-demand balance, but weak demand could delay the supply-demand turning point [1] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is expected to be "delayed" rather than "disproved," with a further strengthening of the global easing framework, leading to a sequential recovery of the "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" in the A-share market [1] - The emergence of new structural highlights may require time, as the decisive catalysts for the domestic technology industry trends and the verification period for anti-involution effects will take time to materialize, suggesting that Spring 2026 may still lack new leading themes [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The long-term cost-performance ratio of the technology sector may reach extremely low levels by Spring 2026, reminiscent of the end of 2013 for the ChiNext and the end of 2019 for the food and beverage sector, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase for the market [1] - After a short-term adjustment, the technology-led market rally is expected to continue into Q4 2025, with Spring 2026 likely being a phase peak but not the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current comprehensive bull market [1] - The conditions for a comprehensive bull market are expected to become increasingly sufficient over time, indicating further depth in the bull market ahead [1]

Market Performance - On October 13, the market experienced a significant decline with a trading volume of 2.53 trillion, down approximately 140 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The semiconductor and new energy sectors showed weakness, while non-tech sectors like building materials and coal performed better[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, closing below 3900 points, with the Shenzhen Component down 2.70% and the ChiNext Index down 4.55% on October 10[3] Sector Analysis - The adjustment in the tech sector is expected to create a capital spillover effect, leading to potential gains in non-tech sectors such as non-bank financials and chemicals[1] - Major outflows were noted in the semiconductor, battery, and software development sectors, while inflows were seen in grid equipment, infrastructure, and securities[4] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Civil Affairs announced a first batch of elderly care service subsidies amounting to 1.16 billion yuan, aimed at supporting elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities[5] - The World Trade Organization revised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 from -0.2% to 2.4%, but lowered the 2026 forecast from 2.5% to 0.5% due to anticipated tariff impacts[7] Investment Trends - Public funds have shown increased enthusiasm for participating in private placements, with total subscriptions exceeding 30 billion yuan this year, surpassing last year's total[13] - Private equity firms remain optimistic about market continuity but advise caution regarding valuation pressures on certain tech stocks[14]

Core Viewpoint - The optimism in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for the fourth quarter of 2025 is driven by the continuous inflow of overseas funds and the relocation of resident deposits, with a focus on technology stocks, new consumption, the internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment areas [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Policy Support - Fund managers express confidence in the market due to supportive policies and the influx of new capital, with the A-share index breaking a ten-year high, indicating a return to reasonable pricing [2][4]. - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is stabilizing the economy, while regulatory measures are encouraging long-term capital inflow and stabilizing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Strategies - The technology sector is highlighted as a leading driver of market momentum, with breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption creating new growth opportunities [3][5]. - Fund companies recommend focusing on sectors with strong certainty, particularly technology stocks, new consumption, the internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as these areas are expected to see significant growth [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Inflow and Market Dynamics - There has been an acceleration in the supply of new capital, with institutional investors increasing equity allocations and retail investor sentiment turning positive, leading to heightened trading activity [3][4]. - The shift in capital dynamics, with a focus on industry and thematic ETFs, indicates a robust market environment, supported by the recovery of corporate earnings and improved liquidity conditions [3][6]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is viewed as having good investment value, particularly in new consumption and technology sectors, with expectations of earnings recovery and liquidity improvement [6][7]. - The potential for foreign capital inflow, driven by favorable conditions such as U.S. interest rate cuts, is expected to provide additional support for the Hong Kong stock market [6][7].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-23 金融市场重磅发声，科技行情有望延续 市场分析 高层重磅发声。国内方面，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。央行行长潘功胜介绍，截 至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产近470万亿元，位居世界第一；股票、债券市场规模位居世界第二；外汇储备规 模连续20年位居世界第一。金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍，目前银行业保险业总资产超过500万亿元，5年来年均 增长9%；信托、理财、保险资管机构管理资产近100万亿元；"白名单"项目贷款超过7万亿元，支持近2000万套住 房建设交付。证监会主席吴清介绍，资本市场含"科"量进一步提升，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4；截至8月 底，各类中长期资金合计持有A股流通市值约21.4万亿元，较"十三五"末增长32%，外资持有A股市值3.4万亿元。 外汇局局长朱鹤新介绍，7月末境外机构和个人持有境内股票、债券、存贷款超10万亿元。海外方面，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来进一步降息的空间有限。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指涨0.22%收于3828.58点，创业板指涨0. ...

Group 1 - The gaming industry is undergoing significant marginal changes, shifting from "one-off skin products" to "long-cycle projects," leading to an increase in cash flow duration [1] - AI is reforming the business operation models and content of games, which may significantly enhance the return on equity (ROE) for game investments [1] - Changes in consumer habits are moving from material consumption to emotional consumption, impacting performance [1] Group 2 - The long-term trend for the market remains optimistic, with a bullish mindset and room for upward valuation based on current securities rates [2] - The market structure is characterized by a "dual-driven" approach, with strong elasticity provided by growth categories under global technology collaboration and a recovery in cyclical and pro-cyclical trading [2] - The focus should be on growth sectors, particularly in a high-risk appetite market, where growth is more likely to yield excess returns [2] Group 3 - In the tech market, hardware leads while software follows, with gaming being a highly elastic category within the software domain [3] - The gaming industry's business model is marked by high investment, high risk, high return, and long cycles, reflecting a pattern seen in past tech revolutions [3] Group 4 - Gaming is compared to the innovative pharmaceutical industry due to similarities in business models, including high investment and long revenue cycles [4] - Both sectors exhibit high second-order profit derivatives during their revenue realization phases, with significant growth potential once they enter harvest periods [4] - However, gaming currently lacks strong catalysts compared to innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to a more moderate growth trajectory [4]

Core Conclusion - The current technology market is experiencing a fourth wave, which has reached a point of crowding risk, and after a period of consolidation, a fifth wave is anticipated [2][3]. Historical Comparison - The technology index has risen nearly 60% over approximately 100 trading days since the adjustment in April 2025, which is comparable to previous growth phases [4]. - Historical data shows that previous growth phases in the technology sector typically lasted around 70 trading days with similar average gains of about 60% [4]. - Adjustments before the initiation of the next wave typically take 30-40 trading days, with pullbacks ranging from 15% to 30% [4]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - As of the end of August, the technology sector accounted for 40.7% of total trading volume, surpassing the previous high of 38.5% in October 2024 [8]. - The average turnover rate for TMT stocks in August was 6.3%, close to the levels seen in early 2019 and 2020 [8]. - The financing balance for the technology sector reached 28.1% by the end of August, exceeding the previous high of 27.9% at the beginning of the year [8]. Future Outlook - The current AI market has seen significant growth since the low point on April 9, with sector gains ranging from 50% to 100% [11]. - There is an expectation for a consolidation phase before the emergence of the fifth wave, with a focus on technology applications such as smart driving, fintech, and robotics [11].