当中国两大汽车行业协会和国家统计局公布的年度数据摆在眼前，人们才恍然大悟：虽然高增长数据让人感叹，中国汽车市场一片欣欣向荣，但实事求 是，中国汽车市场内需却并不尽如人意。 国内决生死，海外定发展。 作 者 | 海运仓 责 编 | 陈 慎 出 品 | 汽车K线 一半是火焰，一半是寒冰。 2025年中国汽车实际产能高达4750万辆！同期中国汽车销量约3500万辆（含出口）。 对所有上市车企而言，2026年唯一的策略，就是稳定国内基盘，深耕品牌、向上要利润，在海外谋求增量。 01 2025年，面对复杂多变的国内外经济环境，在中央坚强领导下，国内生产总值超140万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5%。 去年全国规模以上工业增加值比上年增长5.9%。其中，制造业增长6.4%，看上去还不错。 | | 12月 | | 1-12月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 标 | 绅对量 | 同比增长 | 绝对量 | 同比增长 | | | (亿元) | (%) | (亿元) | (%) | | 社会消费品零售总额 | 45136 | 0.9 | 501202 | 3.7 | | 其中:除汽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing intensified "involution" competition, characterized by price wars, chaotic advertising, and quality issues, prompting regulatory bodies to implement measures aimed at ensuring product consistency and promoting high-quality development [1][3][9]. Group 1: Price Wars and Profitability - The price war in the Chinese automotive market has escalated, with 227 models involved in price reductions in 2024, significantly higher than 148 in 2023 and 95 in 2022 [3]. - Over 90% of mainstream automotive brands participated in price cuts, with an average reduction of 15%, and some models seeing discounts exceeding 30% off the official price [3]. - The profit margin for the automotive manufacturing industry dropped to 4.3% in 2024 and further declined to 3.9% in Q1 2025, marking a ten-year low and significantly below the manufacturing average of 5.6% [3]. Group 2: Quality Issues and Consumer Complaints - Complaints regarding quality issues in new energy vehicles, such as "battery faults" and "inaccurate range," reached 13,904 from January to May 2025, marking a historical high and an increase of 7.4% from 2024 and 87.9% from 2023 [4]. - The ongoing price war and reckless technological competition are squeezing reasonable profit margins, adversely affecting product and service quality, which is detrimental to both companies and consumers in the long run [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures and Industry Response - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced a consistency supervision check for vehicle production, aiming to regulate the automotive industry and curb the "involution" phenomenon [7][8]. - The regulatory framework includes a multi-dimensional governance system, with the MIIT and other departments implementing measures to ensure production consistency and compliance with safety standards [8]. - The automotive industry is showing signs of stabilizing, with a reduction in the number of models experiencing price cuts from 36 in 2024 to 23 in September 2025, and a slight recovery in profit margins [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The regulatory interventions are expected to reshape the competitive landscape, guiding resources towards technological innovation and quality improvement, ultimately leading to a transition from "scale first" to "quality leading" in the automotive industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of the "Guidelines for Compliance of Pricing Behavior in the Automotive Industry" by the State Administration for Market Regulation, aimed at establishing a fair and competitive market order in the automotive sector amidst slowing demand and increasing reliance on low-price competition [1] Group 1: Regulation of Production Enterprises - The guidelines emphasize the importance of compliance in pricing behavior of automotive production enterprises to maintain price stability across the industry [2] - It establishes a pricing strategy based on production costs and market supply and demand, prohibiting price collusion among manufacturers [2] - The guidelines require clear and fair rebate policies for dealers and prohibit price discrimination against them [2] Group 2: Regulation of Sales Enterprises - Automotive sales enterprises play a crucial role in fostering consumer confidence and promoting consumption upgrades [4] - The guidelines provide comprehensive compliance directives for pricing activities, including clear pricing rules, promotion regulations, and prevention of price fraud [4] - They also address the responsibilities of online platforms in ensuring compliance and protecting pricing autonomy for sellers [5][6] Group 3: Internal Compliance Management - The guidelines encourage the establishment of internal pricing compliance management systems within automotive enterprises to reduce illegal motives and opportunities [7] - A comprehensive compliance management framework is proposed, focusing on decision-making, contract management, internal supervision, and risk prevention [7] - The integration of pricing compliance into the sustainable development strategy of automotive enterprises is aimed at enhancing the industry's long-term vitality and promoting high-quality development [7]

Group 1 - Xiaomi Auto Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated a recall of 116,887 units of the SU7 standard electric vehicle due to insufficient recognition, warning, or handling of extreme scenarios in L2 highway navigation assistance, which may increase collision risks if the driver does not intervene in time [1] - This is the second large-scale recall since the establishment of Xiaomi Auto, with the first recall in January 2025 involving over 30,000 SU7 models due to misjudgment risks in the automatic parking function [1] - The cumulative recall of the SU7 standard version has approached 150,000 units, covering a significant proportion of the total sales since its launch [1] Group 2 - The current recall is characterized by an OTA upgrade to optimize the driving assistance algorithm for free, rather than physical repairs, reflecting a shift in how recalls are perceived in the industry [2] - The use of the term "recall" by Xiaomi Auto indicates a commitment to corporate social responsibility, while also highlighting the regulatory scrutiny faced by new car manufacturers regarding OTA practices [2] - The recall stems from issues related to driving assistance technology, which has seen rapid development, but the maturity of the technology remains a critical concern amid stringent new regulations targeting disorder in the industry [2] Group 3 - The automotive industry is undergoing a correction of chaotic competition, with various measures being implemented to ensure high-quality development, which is seen as a long-term battle [3] - Companies like Tesla and others in the smart driving sector will face compliance challenges as the industry transitions from chaotic growth to a new era focused on safety and responsibility [3] - The development of intelligent connected vehicles is crucial for fostering new productive forces and driving industrial upgrades, emphasizing the importance of safety in this transition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the release of the "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, which outlines a policy direction for the high-quality and steady development of the automotive industry, leading to a maintained "overweight" rating for the sector [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Growth Targets - The work plan aims for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales targeted at around 15.5 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%. The automotive manufacturing industry's added value is expected to grow by about 6% year-on-year [3]. Key Initiatives - The work plan outlines 15 initiatives across four dimensions: expanding domestic consumption, improving supply quality, optimizing the development environment, and deepening open cooperation. Key measures include accelerating the marketization of new energy vehicles, enhancing efforts to promote automotive consumption, and advancing the industrial application of intelligent connected technologies [2][3]. Market Environment - The work plan builds on previous initiatives such as the "anti-involution" proposal by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the joint notice on addressing online chaos in the automotive industry. It aims to create a healthy and orderly market environment through optimized management policies and standardized market competition [3]. Recent Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the Chinese passenger car market showed steady performance, with sales reaching 18.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14%. The industry is expected to maintain a stable growth rate of around 5% in 2026, despite a backdrop of a saturated market [3].

Group 1 - The automotive stocks have shown significant gains, with NIO-SW (09866) up 4.22% at HKD 50.15, GAC Group (601238) (02238) up 3.6% at HKD 3.45, BYD (002594) (01211) up 3.35% at HKD 108, and Leap Motor (09863) up 2.87% at HKD 62.7 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments have issued the "Automotive Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", aiming for approximately 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales targeted at around 15.5 million, a year-on-year increase of about 20% [1] - The plan also aims for stable growth in automotive exports and a 6% year-on-year increase in the added value of the automotive manufacturing industry [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities released a report stating that the plan builds on previous initiatives like the "anti-involution" proposal and the joint notice on rectifying network chaos in the automotive industry, emphasizing the need for optimized management policies and regulated market competition to foster a healthy market environment [2] - The report indicates that the Chinese passenger car market performed steadily from January to August 2025, with sales reaching 18.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14% [2] - The firm anticipates a 5% year-on-year growth rate for the Chinese passenger car market in 2026, indicating a stable growth trend in the context of a mature market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors has taken the lead in fulfilling its commitment to shorten payment terms to suppliers to within 60 days, responding to industry demands for high-quality development and stability in the supply chain [2][4][6]. Group 1: Commitment to Suppliers - On July 11, Xiaopeng Motors notified multiple suppliers via email about the implementation of a payment term of no more than 60 days [2][5]. - This commitment aligns with a broader initiative by 17 major automotive companies, including FAW, Dongfeng, and GAC Group, to ensure payment terms do not exceed 60 days [3][6]. - Xiaopeng Motors' CEO, He Xiaopeng, emphasized the importance of quick action in fulfilling this commitment, indicating a shift towards more orderly competition in the automotive industry [6]. Group 2: Industry Response and Developments - Other major automotive companies have varied in their progress towards fulfilling similar commitments, with some companies stating they do not need to change their payment terms as they already comply [8]. - GAC Group, for instance, has consistently maintained a payment term of no more than 60 days, highlighting the importance of supplier viability for product quality and service [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has opened an online platform for reporting issues related to the fulfillment of payment term commitments by major automotive companies, aiming to promote a healthier and sustainable automotive industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - GAC Group has committed to ensuring the fulfillment of dealer rebates within two months, aiming to build a trustworthy and mutually beneficial cooperation ecosystem with dealers and enhance consumer service and experience, thereby promoting high-quality development in the automotive industry [1]. Group 1 - On June 14, GAC Group announced a commitment to complete dealer rebate payments within two months [1]. - GAC Group's brands, including GAC Haobo, GAC Trumpchi, GAC Aion, GAC Honda, and GAC Toyota, are involved in this commitment [1]. - This initiative is part of a broader effort to foster high-quality development in the automotive industry [1]. Group 2 - On June 10, GAC Group also announced a commitment to maintain supplier payment terms not exceeding 60 days to ensure efficient capital turnover in the supply chain [4]. - This aligns with the revised "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium Enterprises" that took effect on June 1, prompting several domestic automakers, including China FAW, BYD, Dongfeng Motor, and others, to make similar commitments [8]. - According to a report from CITIC Securities, these actions are responses to policy changes and are expected to drive positive transformations in the automotive industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - GAC Group is committed to ensuring the timely payment of dealer rebates within two months, aiming to build a trustworthy and mutually beneficial cooperation ecosystem with dealers and enhance consumer service and experience, thereby promoting high-quality development in the automotive industry [1]. Group 1 - GAC Group announced on June 14 that it will ensure the completion of dealer rebate payments within two months, emphasizing integrity and action [1]. - On June 10, GAC Group also committed to maintaining a supplier payment term of no more than 60 days to ensure efficient capital turnover in the supply chain [4]. - Several domestic automakers, including China FAW, BYD, Dongfeng Motor, and others, have made public commitments to limit supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days in response to the revised "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" effective from June 1 [8].

Group 1: Securities Industry Mergers and Acquisitions - A new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry is anticipated, with the financial technology sector being particularly promising [3][5] - Central Huijin Investment has become the actual controller of several securities firms, which is expected to drive market consolidation [4][6] - Regulatory encouragement for industry integration suggests that mergers and acquisitions will enhance overall competitiveness and resource allocation in the securities sector [5][6] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - Multiple automotive companies, including BYD and China FAW, have committed to a payment term not exceeding 60 days, marking a shift towards high-quality development in the industry [10] - The implementation of the revised "Regulations on Payment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" is expected to standardize payment practices and improve cash flow for upstream suppliers [11] - This change in payment terms is likely to reduce financial costs for parts suppliers and may lead to a recovery in profitability for the automotive sector starting in the third quarter [11]