12月24日，回顾2025年的金融市场，主流资产的表现呈现出极大的分化。GTC泽汇资本观察到，尽管市 场此前对比特币寄予厚望，认为其能作为抵御通胀的利器，但其全年的波动表现却差强人意，不仅未能 跑赢传统避险资产黄金，甚至大幅落后于纳斯达克100指数。然而，这种滞后性往往孕育着新的市场机 遇，随着价格与基本面价值的偏离程度达到阶段性高点，反弹的动能正在蓄势。 在宏观金融环境方面，货币信用体制正面临长期的考验。GTC泽汇资本认为，全球主要经济体为了应对 庞大的公共债务与财政开支，对"货币印钞"的依赖度难以在短期内降低，这直接导致了法定货币购买力 的持续摊薄。在这种大背景下，全球资本对于"硬资产"的渴求正从单一品种向多元化扩散。 黄金作为传统硬资产的代表，其表现已印证了这一逻辑。GTC泽汇资本表示，黄金价格在过去一年中展 现了惊人的爆发力，涨幅超过70%，目前已站稳每盎司4492美元上方。随着市场预期金价将在2026年向 5000美元大关发起冲击，这种强势的避险情绪将产生明显的溢出效应，进而带动同样具有稀缺属性的数 字资产进入上升通道。 针对比特币的后续走势，GTC泽汇资本认为，尽管当前的流动性收紧与风险偏好下行压 ...

12月16日，知名宏观策略师Simon White在周一发布的一份报告中则认为，人们没有理由怀疑黄金的上 涨趋势无法延续——尽管其涨幅可能放缓。不仅如此，随着通胀环境加剧推动实物资产需求扩大，大宗 商品也有望加入这场盛宴。 White指出，"市场目前完全没有为通胀加速做好准备，但这可能正是我们即将面临的情况。随着市场不 仅对法定货币贬值风险进行对冲，还对金融体系本身的脆弱性进行对冲，黄金、白银和其他贵金属已经 带来了可观的回报。"White认为，明年大宗商品同样有望承担这一角色。其上涨空间甚至可能远超黄金 ——因为即使只从规模庞大得多的股票和债券市场中撤出极小一部分资金进行重新配置，也将如同将消 防水带接入吸管般汹涌。如果说2025年属于黄金，那么2026年则极可能将是大宗商品之年。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 ...

Group 1 - The correlation coefficient (R) between U.S. federal debt and gold prices has been strong, with an R value of 83% from 2008 to present [2] - From 2021 to present, the R value has increased to 90%, indicating a very strong positive correlation between U.S. debt growth and gold prices [3] - The current U.S. debt stands at $38 trillion, growing at an annual rate of approximately 7% [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has limited options to address the debt bubble, primarily resorting to printing money [5] - Based on the current gold price of approximately $4,000 per ounce and the annual growth rate of U.S. debt, gold prices are expected to rise to at least $4,400 per ounce, representing a 10% increase [5] - This correlation and simple calculations can help answer many questions regarding the future trends of gold [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining optimism in the market despite signs of bubbles, particularly driven by significant capital expenditures related to AI. It suggests that understanding the long-term narrative of AI and ignoring short-term noise is crucial for investors [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. stock market has shown remarkable resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices trading above their 50-day moving averages for over 100 consecutive days, reaching new historical highs [1]. - Retail investors have been net buyers for 21 out of the last 24 weeks, and ETFs have seen net inflows for 183 out of the last 185 trading days, indicating strong market enthusiasm [1]. - The "most shorted" and "unprofitable tech stocks" have experienced rapid gains, alongside sectors like nuclear energy, quantum computing, drones, and artificial intelligence [3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and AI - A report predicts that capital expenditures by "hyperscale computing companies" will reach $2.8 trillion by 2029, with total global related capital expenditures amounting to $5.5 trillion during the same period [7]. - The article argues that the substantial capital inflow related to AI is a powerful trend that cannot be easily countered, suggesting that premature bearishness could be detrimental for investors [7]. Group 3: Key Market Drivers - Three main drivers supporting the market are identified: declining interest rates, corporate profits, and employment dynamics [8]. - The expectation of lower U.S. interest rates is seen as a likely scenario, which would provide additional support to capital markets [8]. - AI is expected to enhance corporate profit margins either by directly reducing costs through efficiency or by compelling companies to improve productivity to showcase their AI investments [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Indicators - Current market sentiment indicators are at extreme levels, with daily trading volumes of call options reaching an average of 40 million contracts, double the volume from three years ago [9]. - Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs, a significant percentage of their constituent stocks have declined, indicating a divergence in market performance [9]. - Technology and tech-related stocks now account for 56% of the total market capitalization in the U.S., while defensive stocks have dropped to 16%, the lowest recorded level [10]. Group 5: Currency Valuation and Asset Performance - The current bull market reflects a "devaluation trade" of fiat currency, with the Nasdaq index rising 165% and the S&P 500 index rising 102% when measured in U.S. dollars since the pandemic [11]. - However, when measured in gold, the Nasdaq index has only increased by 7%, and the S&P 500 has decreased by 18%, highlighting the importance of the currency used for asset valuation [11]. - This suggests that non-dollar-denominated assets, such as Bitcoin and gold, have seen faster appreciation, emphasizing the need for investors to consider the currency in which they evaluate asset returns [11].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant surge, with Bitcoin's price surpassing $120,000, marking a 24-hour increase of 1.6% [1] - Ethereum also experienced a notable rise, briefly exceeding $4,500, with a gain of over 3% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies such as BNB, Solana, and Dogecoin have increased by more than 5% [5] Market Data Summary - Bitcoin's latest price is $120,266, with a 24-hour high of $121,044 and a low of $118,387. The market capitalization stands at approximately $2.4 trillion [6] - Ethereum's current price is $4,475.40, with a 24-hour trading volume of $42.516 billion [6] - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours reached $423 million, with long positions accounting for $120 million and short positions for $300 million [6][7] Government Impact and Market Outlook - The U.S. government shutdown has led to approximately 750,000 federal employees being furloughed, but it has not deterred Wall Street's outlook on cryptocurrencies [8] - Citigroup has raised its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum to $181,000 and $5,400, respectively, citing continued investor demand [8] - JPMorgan analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $165,000 by year-end, suggesting it is undervalued compared to gold based on volatility-adjusted metrics [9] - Retail investors are driving the current trend towards Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [10]