站在白酒复苏的前夜 20250826 摘要 2013-2015 年白酒周期回调与当前环境相似，复盘可为白酒股定价提 供参考。当年"三公消费"禁令重创高端白酒市场，茅台批发价暴跌， 行业利润下滑，但财务指标改善预示走出低谷。 2013 年白酒股价指数大幅下跌 46%，但 2014 年中开始触底反弹，早 于基本面业绩确认两个季度以上。基本面改善体现在预收账款降幅收窄、 经营现金流向好等方面。 沪股通试点启动前，市场对外资偏好消费股的预期转好，流动性改善推 动资产定价提前于基本面反弹。流动性预期对白酒板块的估值修复起到 了关键作用。 本轮白酒周期与上一轮相似之处在于，均是行业周期与宏观经济周期的 叠加，都经历了政策调整带来的短期冲击，以及基本面改善和政策利好 推动资产定价提前反应。 本轮周期中，白酒行业同样面临产能过剩和宏观经济影响，但头部企业 市场份额更集中，能更从容应对市场波动，库存和渠道周期更为平滑， 整体下降和复苏过程更加平稳。 Q&A 请介绍一下白酒行业的历史周期及其特点。 自 2000 年以来，白酒行业经历了四轮周期：1999 年到 2003 年，2008 年到 2009 年，2012 年到 2015 ...

张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 流动性改善支持港股补涨，关注创新药与互联网机会 ——港股市场策略周报（0825） 近期流动性叙事的改善，或足以支持港股的补涨。业绩方面，港股目前业绩预 喜率为 2022 年以来新高。展望后市，我们仍然对港股保持乐观态度，方向上建 议聚焦与 A 股存在差异化的行业，节奏上建议先创新药、再互联网，最后新消 费。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何—— 港股系列研究报告（1）》 2. 《港股市场流动性跟踪框架—— 港股系列研究报告（2）》 ❑ 港股观点更新：流动性叙事的改变，或足以支持港股补涨。近期 Hibor 利率 快速上行后逐步稳定、鲍威尔表态显著转鸽，内外流动性的变化均指向一个 结论：港股流动性趋紧的叙事已经得到了边际改善。我们认为，流动性叙事 的改善已经足 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point level, reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears [2][16][17] - The market is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with the index expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest accumulated pressure [17] - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and external disturbances, while medium-term trends remain upward due to policy support and industry upgrades [5][17] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and AI application sectors have shown strength, indicating a potential shift towards technology stocks, particularly among small and mid-cap growth stocks [1][16] - The "Yalu River Downstream Hydropower" concept stocks have experienced significant volatility, with a recent pullback after a period of strong performance [11] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices, is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policy changes and an aging population [10] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yalu River hydropower concept [3][17] - Mid-term investments should target growth sectors with elastic potential, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][17] - The cultural media sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, particularly in gaming and interactive content, benefiting from advancements in AI technology [9] Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff negotiations and the overall liquidity environment, which are expected to positively influence the A-share market [3][17] - The upcoming fiscal policy window in Q3 and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are critical factors to watch for market direction [3][17]

2025年7月14日-2025年7月18日 指数表现 最新点位 本周涨跌幅 1. 41% 4773. 24 本周成交额 日均成交额 成交环比变化 (亿元) (亿元) 22270. 23 4454. 05 9.49% 中证A500指数周报 ■▲ 南财快讯 中国银河证券的一份研报指出，2025年上半年，沪深300全收益指数累计上涨1.37%，中证1000全收益 指数累计上涨7.54%，总体上小盘占优。展望2025年下半年，随着权益类公募基金加速扩容，政策引导 下中长期资金积极布局，机构投资者入市趋势明确，相比个人投资者来说，机构投资者倾向于选择市值 规模较大、业绩和分红相对稳定的蓝筹股。此外，叠加外部不确定性扰动持续存在，市场风格或将偏向 大盘。 中信建投证券则在研报中表示，国内经济企稳迹象逐步凸显，叠加降准降息释放长期流动性，若下半年 美联储开启降息周期，将进一步利好非银板块，拓宽国内货币政策空间，同时吸引外资回流港股及A股 市场。非银板块作为资本市场核心参与者，将直接受益于流动性环境改善带来的市场活跃度提升。 其进一步指出，当前非银行业整体估值处于历史中等分位，呈现出较高的投资性价比与安全边际。其 一，政策红 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a strong recovery in the first half of 2025, with an increase in new listings and fundraising, making it a focal point for global capital markets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, 42 traditional IPO projects were completed in Hong Kong, raising over 105 billion HKD, surpassing the total fundraising amounts of 2022, 2023, and 2024 [3]. - The number of new listings in Hong Kong increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, with total fundraising reaching a global high [13]. - The average daily trading volume in the secondary market rose from 1,048 billion HKD in 2023 to 2,394 billion HKD in 2025, marking a liquidity increase of 128% [13]. Group 2: International Investment Trends - International funds are shifting from a "risk-averse" approach to a "risk and return rebalancing," with increased interest in the Asia-Pacific markets, including China [4]. - The influx of capital into Hong Kong has risen significantly, from 366 billion USD in early 2024 to 506 billion USD by April 2025, the highest level since 2000 [4]. - A survey indicated a dramatic change in investor sentiment, with many now favoring the Asia-Pacific markets over the US [4]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Support - The Hong Kong IPO market is benefiting from supportive policies and optimized listing regulations, which have been implemented since September of last year [7]. - The Chinese government has encouraged qualified domestic companies to list abroad, enhancing Hong Kong's role as a financing hub [7]. - Recent regulatory changes have made it easier for unprofitable biotech and technology companies to go public in Hong Kong [7][9]. Group 4: Valuation and Liquidity - The Hong Kong market is experiencing a valuation recovery driven by technical breakthroughs and improved liquidity, positively impacting new stocks [10][11]. - The Hang Seng Index has shown a bullish trend since January 2024, indicating a full recovery of market vitality [12]. - The current market environment is fostering a virtuous cycle of increased investor confidence and market activity [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The IPO market in Hong Kong is expected to maintain its momentum in the second half of 2025, with over 170 listing applications currently in process [13]. - It is anticipated that around 80 new companies will list in Hong Kong in 2025, raising approximately 200 billion HKD [13]. - The trend of A-share leading companies seeking dual listings in Hong Kong is becoming more prevalent, driven by the need for international exposure and diversified financing [9].