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2026年货币政策延续“适度宽松”:短中长期多层次流动性调节更趋精准 政策利率或有1-2次降息空间
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 07:14
新华财经北京1月4日电(刘润榕)回望2025年,我国货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调,注重预期引导与传 导疏通,操作更趋精准审慎。这一年,流动性操作透明度显著提升, 短中长期工具协同配合,形成了 立体化多层次的流动性管理体系;这一年,夯实7天期逆回购政策利率的核心地位,淡化MLF利率的锚 定作用,并完善14天逆回购招标规则,着力畅通利率传导路径;这一年,持续发挥结构性货币政策工具 的精准滴灌和杠杆撬动作用,促进金融资源向重点领域倾斜。 2026年,作为"十五五"开局之年,我国经济正处于新旧动能转换的关键阶段。业内预计,在财政、货币 政策协同发力与经济内生动能增强的双重支撑下,2026年货币市场将延续稳健运行态势。"数量"上通过 不同期限流动性工具搭配呵护市场,"价格"上政策利率或有1-2次"降息"空间,"结构"上"五篇大文章"继 续加力,科技创新等领域是重点支持方向。 2025年货币市场回顾:延续短中长期多层次流动性调节体系政策利率调整更趋审慎 从总量看,流动性合理充裕格局稳固,延续"逆回购+中期借贷便利+国债买卖"的多层次流动性调节体 系。逆回购作为日常流动性调节的核心工具,操作趋于更加精细化,时而"天量",时 ...
人民银行加量续作6000亿元买断式逆回购
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-15 15:51
北京商报讯(记者 岳品瑜 实习生 岳雯艳)为保持银行体系流动性充裕,2025年12月15日,人民银行以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元买断式逆回购操作,期限为6个月(182天)。从 资金供需情况看,12月有4000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期,本次操作实现加量规模2000亿元,这也 是6个月期买断式逆回购连续第四个月实现加量续作。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示,当前流动性市场整体宽松,央行操作削峰填谷,但整体上更偏宽松。 年末流动性压力可能季节性抬升,但人民银行宽货币态度明确,后续买断式逆回购、MLF和买债呵护 流动性宽松的确定性较高。 王青指出,由于12月仍有3000亿元MLF到期,人民银行也可能加量续作MLF。 在着力保障中长期流动性充裕的同时,人民银行同步开展短期流动性精准调节。同日,人民银行还以固 定利率、数量招标方式开展了1309亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.4%。因当日有1223亿元7天期逆 回购到期,实现净投放86亿元,进一步夯实短期资金面稳定性。 近年来,人民银行通过各种工具的配合使用,有效应对财政税收、政府债券发行等短期波动,货币市场 运行整体平稳,短端货币市场利率 ...
1个月期国库现金定存利率降至1.73%
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-24 15:52
Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China conducted a tender for the 2025 Central Treasury Cash Management Commercial Bank Time Deposits, with a total bid amount of 120 billion and a bid rate of 1.73%, down 3 basis points from the previous rate of 1.76%, indicating a reasonable liquidity level in the banking system [1] - The Central Treasury Cash Deposits have been conducted 12 times this year, covering 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month terms, with the recent 6 operations showing a gradual decline in bid rates from 1.78% to 1.73% [1] - The decline in treasury deposit rates suggests a weakening demand from commercial banks for these funds, reflecting an overall reasonable liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 2 - While the treasury deposit rates are declining, the interbank funding market rates have shown a slight increase, with the 7-day SHIBOR rising by 3 basis points to 1.447% and the 1-month SHIBOR increasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.52% [2] - The divergence in rates is attributed to different pricing logic, with treasury deposit rates determined through a bidding process and SHIBOR reflecting short-term funding needs, influenced by month-end liquidity pressures [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China has been injecting liquidity through various monetary tools, including a net injection of 557 billion via 7-day reverse repos on November 24, following previous net injections on November 19, 20, and 21 [3] - The recent decline in the 1-month treasury cash deposit rate is expected to lower short-term funding costs for commercial banks, improving their interest margin and signaling a degree of monetary easing [3] - Future expectations suggest that the 1-month treasury cash deposit rate may remain stable, as the People's Bank of China is likely to maintain its accommodative policy stance despite seasonal tightening pressures at year-end [3]
央行预告,下周一,9000亿元
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will implement a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method for the 900 billion yuan MLF operation [1]. - With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing in October, the net injection of MLF for the month will reach 200 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The continuous net injection of MLF indicates policy consistency and aims to stabilize market expectations while ensuring sufficient liquidity [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity - In October, the PBOC also conducted a net injection of 400 billion yuan through reverse repos, bringing the total net liquidity injection to 600 billion yuan, consistent with the previous month [2]. - The net injection of medium-term liquidity has been ongoing for five months, with a significant increase in the last three months, primarily due to expected government bond net financing reaching one trillion yuan [2]. - The regulatory authorities are guiding financial institutions to increase credit issuance, while the PBOC's actions signal a sustained commitment to quantitative monetary policy tools [2]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - In the near future, the PBOC is expected to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF operations, to enhance short- and medium-term market liquidity [3]. - The PBOC aims to optimize the liquidity term structure to meet the demands of government bond issuance and increased credit supply [3]. - The central bank will adapt its monetary policy tools based on macroeconomic conditions to ensure liquidity, support consumption, and stabilize the financial market [3].
1.1万亿元 央行10月9日开展买断式逆回购操作
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 02:05
Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on October 9, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The reverse repurchase operation will be conducted with a fixed amount, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bids, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - The PBOC has introduced the reverse repurchase tool in the open market operations since October 28, 2024, targeting primary dealers [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC's reverse repurchase operations are aimed at injecting medium-term liquidity into the banking system, helping to stabilize the funding environment [2] - The operations are expected to support government bond issuance and encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply [2] - The PBOC plans to continue conducting reverse repurchase operations, with an expectation of a 6-month term operation later in October [1][2] Market Impact - The announcement of the reverse repurchase operation before the holiday is intended to stabilize market expectations and ensure smooth liquidity post-holiday [2] - The PBOC's actions are part of a broader strategy to enhance liquidity management and support key strategic areas and sectors [2][3] Future Outlook - The PBOC's monetary policy committee has emphasized the need for proactive and targeted monetary policy adjustments based on domestic and international economic conditions [2] - The goal is to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and inflation expectations [2]
人民银行操作组合式逆回购,持续净投放维稳流动性
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-17 12:22
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various market operations, including reverse repos, to ensure stable financial conditions and support economic recovery [1][3][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On September 17, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 418.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan after accounting for 304 billion yuan maturing that day [1][4]. - On September 15, the PBOC executed a 6-month buyout reverse repo operation of 600 billion yuan, which is designed to provide stable medium-term funding while minimizing disruptions in the bond market [3][5]. - The PBOC's reverse repo operations have shown a pattern of "scale fluctuation adjustment" while maintaining high net injections, with various operations throughout September resulting in significant net liquidity additions [4][5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Conditions - As the end of the quarter approaches and with a recovery in real financing demand, interbank market rates have shown a slight upward trend, with the weighted average rate of the DR007 rising to 1.5404% [4][5]. - Overnight rates have stabilized between 1.40% and 1.45%, while 7-day rates are around 1.50%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [5][6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC is expected to increase liquidity injections to counter tightening pressures as local government bond issuance rises, maintaining an overall accommodative monetary policy stance [5][6]. - The PBOC's monetary policy committee emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy and effective implementation of structural monetary tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and consumption [5][6].
呵护意图明显 8月以来央行加码投放中长期流动性
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively implementing various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a focus on medium-term liquidity support through operations like MLF and reverse repos [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - A total of 20,770 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature this week, along with 3,000 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and 9,000 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos [1]. - The PBOC has conducted multiple reverse repo operations and MLF operations in August to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system, indicating a commitment to using various monetary policy tools for liquidity adjustment [1][2]. - The PBOC's recent MLF operation on August 25 involved a net injection of 3,000 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - The net injection of medium-term liquidity in August reached 6,000 billion yuan, double that of the previous month and the largest since February 2025, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance despite stable economic performance [3]. - Experts predict that the PBOC will continue to use various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates [4]. - The PBOC aims to create a conducive monetary environment for economic recovery while enhancing communication and transparency regarding liquidity operations [4].
央行将开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作,公司债ETF(511030)实现7连涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 01:48
Group 1: Bond Issuance by China Development Bank - China Development Bank issued a 1-year bond with a scale of 6 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.3618%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.19 times and a marginal ratio of 3.92 times [1] - A 5-year bond was issued with a scale of 11 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.6253%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.76 times and a marginal ratio of 1.63 times [1] - A 10-year bond was issued with a scale of 18 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 1.7467%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.28 times and a marginal ratio of 1.53 times [1] Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China announced a 700 billion yuan 3-month reverse repurchase operation scheduled for August 8 [1] - Industry insiders believe this operation aims to smooth out the peak of fiscal tax payments and preemptively hedge against liquidity pressure at the end of the quarter [1] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of August 7, 2025, the company bond ETF (511030) rose by 0.03%, marking a 7-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 106.3 yuan [4] - The ETF has accumulated a year-to-date increase of 1.14% and has a recent trading volume of 19.94 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 8.92% [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.363 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year [4] Group 4: Fund Flows and Leverage - The fund inflow and outflow for the company bond ETF are balanced, with a total inflow of 10.6212 million yuan over the last five trading days [4] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the ETF is 2.477 million yuan, with a financing balance of 16.6183 million yuan [4] Group 5: Historical Performance and Returns - Over the past five years, the net value of the company bond ETF has increased by 13.68% [4] - The ETF's highest single-month return since inception was 1.22%, with the longest consecutive increase lasting 9 months and a maximum increase of 3.80% [4] - The annual profit percentage stands at 83.33%, with a monthly profit probability of 79.91% and a 100% probability of profit over a 3-year holding period [4] Group 6: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown for the company bond ETF this year is 0.50%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08% [5] - The management fee rate for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [5] - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.013% [5]
★央行首度月初预告买断式逆回购 流动性调节机制持续优化
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on June 5, breaking the previous practice of announcing such operations at the end of the month, which has attracted significant market attention [1][2] - The operation will be conducted with a fixed amount and interest rate, using a multi-price bidding method, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - The total scale of reverse repos maturing in June is 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan if only the June 6 operation is considered [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's early announcement and the use of structural tools are aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing the transmission of policy signals, especially in the context of high maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [2][3] - The central bank's actions are intended to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and control fluctuations in the money market, thereby supporting credit growth to the real economy [3] - The PBOC has also established a new section on its website to disclose the operation details of various monetary policy tools, enhancing transparency and communication with the market [4] Group 3 - In May, the PBOC's net liquidity injection through various tools included a 1 trillion yuan reduction in reserve requirements and a net injection of 375 billion yuan through medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [4] - The overall long-term liquidity supply exceeded 1 trillion yuan in May, alleviating liquidity pressure from the concentrated issuance of government bonds [4] - The pressure for government bond issuance in June is expected to be lower than in May, with MLF likely to continue net injections [5]