2025 年 12 月 24 日 期指：驱动待寻，窄幅震荡 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4620.7 | ↑0.20 | | 4331.4 | | | | | | IF2601 | 4598.8 | ↑0.15 | -21.93 | 418.1 | 30272 | ↑374 | 64011 | ↑494 | | IF2602 | 4581.6 | ↑0.10 | -39.13 | 22.1 | 1608 | ↑223 | 1335 | ↓29 | | IF2603 | 4571.4 | ↑0.12 | -49.33 | 722.7 | 52645 | ↓1317 | 163660 | ↑5860 | | IF2606 | 4521.2 | ↑0.12 | -99.53 | 101.9 | 7504 ...

（原标题：A股午评：创业板指跌1.23%，超3800股下跌，海南本地股逆势上涨） A股三大指数集体下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.72%报3881.51点，深证成指跌0.56%，创业板指跌 1.23%，北证50跌1.29%。全市场成交额1.15万亿元，较上日成交额缩量1184亿元，超3800股下跌。盘面 上，海南"十五五"规划建议发布，海南本地股全线上涨；贵金属、零售板块涨幅居前，培育钻石、元 件、光伏设备、消费电子板块走低。 ...

Group 1 - Guosheng Technology opened up 2.33% after achieving 10 consecutive trading days of gains [1] - Aerospace concept stocks such as Aerospace Development opened up 9.55% after 7 consecutive trading days of gains [1] - LeiKe Defense reached a trading limit after 4 consecutive trading days of gains [1] Group 2 - MengTian Home opened up 0.94% following a stock transfer, achieving 6 gains in 8 trading days [1] - JinFu Technology reached a trading limit due to mergers and acquisitions after 5 consecutive trading days of gains [1] - The consumer sector saw MaoYe Commercial open up 9.92% after 4 consecutive trading days of gains [1] Group 3 - HaiXin Food opened up 0.97% after 3 consecutive trading days of gains [1] - HaiWang Bio, a flu prevention concept stock, opened flat [1] - Hainan local stock Hainan Ruize opened up 4.10% after 3 consecutive trading days of gains [1] Group 4 - Robot concept stock RuiNeng Technology opened up 7.91% after 2 consecutive trading days of gains [1] - XiangYang Bearing opened up 0.34% after 2 consecutive trading days of gains [1]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration jointly announced adjustments to the duty-free shopping policy for travelers in Hainan, effective from November 1 [1] - As of October 16, financing net purchases exceeding 50 million yuan were recorded for 10 local Hainan stocks, with Haixia Co., Zhongtung High-tech, and Intercontinental Oil & Gas leading the list [1] - Institutions predict that nine local Hainan stocks will see improved net profits for the full year of 2025, with Hainan Rubber, Hainan Airport, Jinpan Technology, and Haixia Co. showing the highest profit growth rates [1] Financing and Stock Performance - Ten local Hainan stocks had net financing purchases over 50 million yuan since the second half of the year, with the top three being Haixia Co. (304 million yuan), Zhongtung High-tech (294 million yuan), and Intercontinental Oil & Gas (235 million yuan) [1] - Other notable stocks with net financing purchases above 100 million yuan include Guangsheng Nonferrous, Haima Automobile, HNA Holding, and Hainan Airport [1] Profit Forecasts for 2025 - Institutions forecast significant profit growth for several Hainan stocks in 2025, with Hainan Rubber expected to increase net profit by 96.83%, followed by Hainan Airport (46.13%), Jinpan Technology (33.45%), and Haixia Co. (24.18%) [2] - HNA Holding and Guangsheng Nonferrous are expected to turn losses into profits for the full year [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slight decline, with major indices showing minor drops, indicating a period of adjustment and potential consolidation in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3382.11 points, down 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10185.34 points, down 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index at 2038.87 points, down 0.48% [1][2]. - Overall, more than 2900 stocks in the market declined, reflecting a bearish sentiment [2]. Sector Analysis - Key sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, financial technology, robotics, and Tesla-related stocks experienced pullbacks [4]. - Conversely, local stocks in Hainan saw a midday surge, while sectors related to computing power, AI applications, and servers showed strength [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in basic chemicals, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals, while outflows were noted in the automotive, non-bank financials, and textile sectors [6]. - Specific stocks like Baili Electric, Huamai Technology, and Jinlongyu saw net inflows of 9.08 billion, 5.44 billion, and 5.4 billion respectively [7]. - In contrast, stocks such as Sifang Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Yuxin Technology faced net outflows of 4.41 billion, 4.23 billion, and 2.93 billion respectively [8]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from Shenzhen Dexun Securities believe that the A-share index has been consolidating for nearly nine months, and a breakout is only a matter of time, supported by policy measures [10]. - Guojin Securities suggests that with external news easing and an active tech sector, there is still room for rebound, although individual stock performance may vary [10].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight rebound with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34% [1][2]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 71.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Stock Performance - Over 4,500 stocks in the market saw an increase, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit for five consecutive trading days [1]. - The limit-up rate was recorded at 77%, with 103 stocks hitting the limit and 31 stocks touching it [6]. Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed significant growth, with e-commerce, sports, and retail stocks experiencing substantial gains. Notable stocks like Guofang Group reached their daily limit [1]. - Hainan local stocks also performed well, with Haiqi Group hitting the limit [1]. - Multi-financial concept stocks saw a surge, with stocks like Jiuding Investment reaching their daily limit [1]. - Sectors such as Hainan, e-commerce, sports industry, and multi-financial led the gains, while a few sectors like liquor and aviation experienced declines [1].