看懂白酒机会，看懂白酒周期，看懂白酒逻辑，这一个视频就够了！华创证券研究所所长董广阳深度解析白酒行业第四次范式大转换，结合历史周期与当前低 估值、高股息特征，探讨底部区域信号及未来可能的新周期起点。 白酒一旦 进入向上周期 持续的时间 上升的弹性幅度 都会远超想象 今年又是一个新周期的开始？ 白酒行业正在经历第四次范式大转换 新 经济 学 家 智 库 x T A I X U E x 董广阳 （点击下方观看视频） 大家好，非常高兴跟大家分享我的观点和看法。过去这几年整个消费行业，白酒、大家电的消费都调整了好几年，而新消费又如火如荼，简直 是冰火两重天。 在这样的情况下，还是有蛮多的朋友跟我交流，问："白酒还能看吗？年轻人都不喝白酒了是吧？上 了桌之后 白酒还该怎么办？"其实跟10年 前或者20年前有 所 相似，但同时又 产生 了一些新的问题。 因为时代背景不同了，所以我今天向大家汇报一下我自己的看法。首先，我觉得确实要认真理解现在这个新的时代。在这样一个时代背景下， 我们 去定位这个行业，再到定位行业内的结构和相关的公司。 ▼ 欢迎点击观看 大 的宏观背景可能大家也都基本能理解，涉及国内和国外两方面，确实跟以前 ...

Economic Performance - The central provinces, particularly Hubei, have shown impressive economic growth in the first half of the year, with Hubei achieving a 6.2% growth rate, ranking among the top three provinces in the country [1][4] - Hubei's GDP reached 2.96 trillion yuan, with a nominal and actual growth rate of 6.2%, indicating ongoing efforts in industrial recovery and investment [4] - The economic total of Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui reached approximately 13 trillion yuan, accounting for 19.7% of the national total, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [4] Industry Insights - Hubei's high-tech manufacturing sector saw an increase in value-added output by around 14%, with significant growth in computer assembly and lithium batteries [7][8] - Hunan and Jiangxi are leveraging emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries to drive economic growth, with Hunan's industrial profits growing by 12.3% [5][8] - Despite the growth, there are concerns regarding the reliance on external markets for high-tech manufacturing, particularly in Hubei's integrated circuit sector [8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in the central provinces have outpaced the national average, with growth rates of 7.2% in Henan and 6.9% in Hubei, driven by initiatives like "old-for-new" subsidies [11][12] - However, consumer spending remains cautious, with per capita consumption in Hubei and Henan below the national average, indicating a focus on practical spending rather than services [11][12] - The potential for sustained consumer growth is uncertain, as it heavily relies on the continuation of subsidy programs [11] Regional Disparities - Economic performance varies significantly within provinces, with major cities like Wuhan and Zhengzhou dominating their respective provincial economies [15][16] - Many smaller cities in the central region are heavily reliant on traditional industries, lacking innovation and core design capabilities [15][16] - The need for a more balanced regional development strategy is emphasized, focusing on creating "next centers" to support broader economic growth [16]

Core Viewpoint - The inaugural Jiangsu Province Urban Football League, referred to as "Su Chao," has become a significant social phenomenon since its launch on May 10, 2023, generating immense public interest and engagement, and is seen as a model for constructive competition in sports [1][3]. Economic Impact - "Su Chao" has transformed from a local league into a nationwide football celebration, enhancing the intrinsic value of sports and stimulating local cultural and tourism economies, thereby creating a new economic model termed "event+" [1][3]. - Attendance rates for "Su Chao" matches rival those of professional football leagues, with some areas experiencing ticket shortages. Post-Duanwu Festival, local tourist attractions saw a 305% increase in bookings, and night tourism in Zhenjiang increased threefold [2]. - Local food brands and cultural products have seen significant sales boosts, with ticket packages and themed experiences driving local consumption and tourism [2]. Government and Management - The success of "Su Chao" reflects the collective cultural and economic strength of Jiangsu, showcasing the region's cultural confidence and the effective response of local management to community needs [3][4]. - Local government officials are encouraged to maintain a focus on risk management and consumer safety while fostering an environment for sustainable growth and innovation in sports events [4]. Future Directions - There is a call for local management to leverage the momentum from "Su Chao" to create new economic models, enhance cultural tourism, and break down administrative barriers to foster community engagement and economic revitalization [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai LEGO Resort officially completed project handover on May 26, 2025, and will begin internal testing and trial operations on May 31, 2025, marking a significant milestone in the development of the resort [1]. Group 1: Project Overview - The construction of Shanghai LEGO Resort involved over 300 teams and thousands of builders from 15 countries, taking nearly 1300 days since the project commenced in 2021 [1]. - The resort features a grand entrance with LEGO figures and various IP-themed structures, creating an engaging atmosphere for visitors [3]. Group 2: Attractions and Features - The resort includes the world's first LEGO Wukong live show "Hua Guo Shan Jiang Mo," which utilizes various projection effects and large props to enhance the performance [5]. - A key attraction, Mini World, showcases famous global landmarks built from LEGO bricks, allowing visitors to explore and even take themed boat rides through these structures [9]. - The Mini World was constructed using 20 million LEGO bricks, taking 168,000 hours to complete, and can be visualized as a structure that could circle the Earth 16 times [9]. Group 3: Future Plans and Market Impact - The Shanghai LEGO Resort is set to officially open to the public on July 5, 2025, and is expected to elevate Shanghai's cultural tourism market, particularly appealing to family visitors during the summer [15]. - The resort will be part of a broader trend in Shanghai, which will also see the introduction of other major international IPs, such as the Harry Potter experience, alongside the already operational Shanghai Disneyland [15]. - The convergence of these international attractions indicates Shanghai's strong capacity in transportation, accommodation, and dining, as well as its international talent pool, which is crucial for attracting more global tourists and IPs in the future [15].

Core Insights - Shanghai LEGO Resort completed project handover on May 26 and will begin internal testing and trial operations on May 31, with an official opening planned for July 5, 2025 [1][13] - The construction involved over 300 teams and thousands of builders from 15 countries, taking nearly 1300 days to complete [1] Group 1: Project Features - The entrance features a LEGO-themed gate with LEGO figurines and various IPs, creating an engaging first impression [3] - The park includes a mini city showcasing famous global landmarks built from LEGO bricks, allowing visitors to explore and enjoy themed boat rides [6][8] - The mini city was constructed using 20 million LEGO bricks, taking 168,000 hours, and can circle the Earth 16 times if laid out [6] Group 2: Attractions and Experiences - The park will host over 75 interactive rides, performances, and educational projects, catering to families and children [9] - A unique dining experience is offered at the Hungry Dragon restaurant, themed around a dragon character and featuring LEGO decorations [4] - The LEGO Resort Hotel features themed floors and family-friendly accommodations, designed to host up to five guests [11] Group 3: Market Impact - The opening of the Shanghai LEGO Resort is expected to elevate the local cultural tourism market, particularly appealing to family visitors during the summer [13] - The presence of multiple international IPs, including the upcoming Harry Potter attraction and the already opened Shanghai Disneyland, indicates a strong capacity for tourism infrastructure in Shanghai [13]

Core Viewpoint - The revitalization of consumption is a key task for economic development, with policies like the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" reflecting the government's commitment to stimulate consumer activity [1] Group 1: Consumer Rights Protection - Consumer rights protection is essential not only for safeguarding livelihoods but also for boosting consumer confidence and promoting sustained consumption growth [1] - Xiaomi Consumer Finance emphasizes consumer rights protection through diverse initiatives aimed at educating the public on financial knowledge and enhancing consumer protection literacy [1][3] - The company integrates consumer rights protection requirements into all business processes, establishing a collaborative mechanism that involves product, business, operations, and risk management [3] Group 2: Financial Education and Complaint Handling - Xiaomi Consumer Finance conducts various financial education activities to improve consumer financial literacy and fraud awareness [3] - The company has strengthened its complaint handling mechanisms, creating standardized processes for product design, business control, collection management, and dispute resolution, resulting in a noticeable increase in complaint resolution rates [3] Group 3: Digital Risk Management - The company is enhancing its internal risk management systems through the development of a digital risk control framework, leveraging technology to safeguard users' financial consumption [3] - Xiaomi Consumer Finance has developed a decision engine and approval system, establishing an automated decision-making process for C-end customers, which improves user experience [3] Group 4: Commitment to Economic Development - By effectively protecting consumer rights and addressing consumption pain points, the company aims to enable consumers to "consume, dare to consume, and be willing to consume," thereby driving economic growth [4] - Xiaomi Consumer Finance is committed to enhancing the quality and effectiveness of its consumer protection efforts, contributing to high-quality economic development [4]