煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，春节期间多数煤矿停产放假，产地供应大幅收紧，中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量周环比减少160.34万吨至1021.77万吨，精煤产量周环节减 少78.21万吨至501.34万吨，产能利用率周环比下降11.16%至71.09%，不过国有煤矿多数停产3-5天，民营煤矿也多于周初陆续复产，预计整体供应将快速恢复。进 口方面，中国煤炭资源网统计本周（2.24-2.26）满都拉口岸共通关3天，日均通关257车，较节前同期日均减少124车。节后下游多谨慎采买，对原料压价意愿较强， 口岸交投氛围冷清，贸易商多挺价观望，口岸报价整体弱稳，其中满都拉主焦煤报价780元/吨左右，周环比基本持平；气原煤口岸报价570-580元/吨，周环比基本 持平。。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 市场成交活跃度较前期有所提升，线上竞拍流拍率高位回落 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending January 23, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 228,100 tons, a slight weekly increase of 90 tons. This week, the coke inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. The total inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 113,100 tons week - on - week to 6,616,400 tons, and the available days of coke increased by 0.38 days to 12.35 days. Overall, there is no obvious positive in the coke's fundamentals, and the support from coking coal on the cost side is also limited. The main contract will remain in the low - level range for the time being [5][31]. - For coking coal, the production is stable, imports remain at a high level, and demand is still sluggish, with no improvement in the fundamentals. As of the week ending January 23, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country was 770,000 tons, a slight weekly increase of 100 tons and 36,000 tons higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 20, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890, a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. As of the week ending January 23, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons [5][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Information - As of December 31, 2025, there are 80 legally - operating and under - construction coal mines in Shandong Province, with a total production capacity of 114.37 million tons per year. Among them, there is 1 under - construction coal mine with a construction scale of 450,000 tons per year, and 79 operating coal mines with a registered production capacity of 113.92 million tons per year [7]. - On January 26, an online auction of coking coal was held in the Liulin market of Lvliang. The starting price of high - sulfur coking clean coal A11, S≤1.85 - 2.0, G85 was 1,100 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on January 19. The starting price of high - sulfur coking clean coal A10.5, S≤2.35 - 2.5, G85 was 1,050 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on January 12 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Change Compared with the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,560 | - 1.89% | 3.31% | 4.70% | 4.70% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,780 | 1.71% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,719 | 0.44% | 1,737 | 1,701.5 | 15,987 | - 6,000 | 36,570 | - 1,308 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,159.5 | 1.35% | 1,167 | 1,138.5 | 886,410 | - 191,465 | 492,406 | - 8,590 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][14][15]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [26][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals have no obvious positive factors, and the cost - side support from coking coal is limited. The main contract will remain in the low - level range [31]. - Coking Coal: Production is stable, imports are high, demand is sluggish, and the fundamentals have not improved [32].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is characterized by the combination of industry and capital, with the market in a range - bound oscillation. The mid - term downward depth needs further verification. There are three main factors causing recent market disturbances: the fermentation of steel mill events weakening downstream复产 expectations, the release of spot selling pressure due to the unlocking of futures and spot positions, and the change in long - short positions of relevant exchange seats affecting the market sentiment. However, inventory replenishment is expected to occur later, and the market pressure will be relieved after the unlocking of futures and spot positions. It is recommended to use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint Supply - In domestic supply, safety and environmental inspections in Linfen, Shanxi, and some underground problems have tightened the supply in the region. In other areas like Lvliang and Changzhi, the output of some mines has continued to recover, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. The sample coal mine raw coal output increased by 5.58 tons week - on - week to 1219.62 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 0.39% to 84.85%. In terms of imports, the port clearance decreased at the beginning of the week due to extremely cold weather and then remained at a high level [3]. Demand - This week, the hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, and the steel mill复产 is still slow. Downstream steel mills and coking plants have completed some inventory replenishment, with inventory slightly increasing, but they lack the willingness for further replenishment. However, there is still an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, limiting the downward space of coal prices [6]. Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 35.6 tons week - on - week. The inventory in the coal washing plant decreased by 12.7 tons, while the inventory in the independent coking link increased by 44.9 tons, indicating a transfer of inventory downstream, but the replenishment rhythm slowed down compared with last week [6]. Viewpoint Summary - The combination of industry and capital makes the mid - term downward depth uncertain. There are three main factors causing market disturbances: steel mill events, spot selling pressure, and changes in exchange positions. Although inventory replenishment is delayed, it is expected to occur. The market pressure will be relieved after the unlocking of futures and spot positions. It is recommended to use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides. Also, be vigilant against black - swan events, and the supply release in the first half of the year is expected to be relatively conservative [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 871.79 (+8.84), FW clean coal 441.48 (+2.27) | Independent coking plant daily average 63.3 (-0.1), steel mill coking enterprise daily average 46.9 (+0.2) | | Demand | Hot metal output 228.1 (+0.09) | Hot metal output 228.1 (+0.09) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +35.6, mine raw coal - 15.18, mine clean coal - 11.37, independent coking +44.9, steel mill coking +1.3, port - 2.4, port of entry - 3.1 | MS total inventory +15.1, independent coking - 0.4, steel mill +11.3, port +4.2 | | Profit | Commodity coal 481 (+18) | Coking enterprise average profit - 6 (-14) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1198 | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - There are data on weekly and monthly coking coal supply, including the output of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines, and the coking coal production of different regions. There are also data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 14.3 tons week - on - week to 186.42 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 3.43 tons to 130.63 tons. Port inventory: The coking coal port inventory was 289.38 tons, a decrease of 9.52 tons week - on - week. There are also data on the inventory of coking plants and steel mills, including regional and capacity - based inventory and available days [24][26][29]. Coke Fundamental Data Supply - There are data on the capacity utilization rate and output of coking plants and steel mills. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel mills is presented, as well as the daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mills [37][45][47]. Inventory - There are data on the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and the total inventory of the whole sample. The inventory of coking plants and steel mills is presented, including regional and available - days - based inventory [49][50][59]. Demand - The demand for coke is mainly related to the hot metal output, and the supply - demand difference of coke is also analyzed [61]. Profit - There are data on the profit of coke, including the disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [64]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2605 and coking coal 2609 are presented, along with the price changes of recent days [67]. Coke Futures - The futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2605 and coke 2609 are presented, along with the price changes of recent days [70]. Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spreads of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [73][75]. Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented [79]. Coal and Coke Basis - The basis of coking coal and coke is presented, including the difference between warehouse receipts and futures prices [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 6th, the coke main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.72%. The downstream resumption of production and winter storage may support the coke price, but whether it can rebound depends on demand improvement and new policy benefits [5][32]. - On January 6th, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,096 points, with an intraday decline of 0.09%. In January, coking coal is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand. The resumption rhythm of upstream and downstream industries is the short - term focus of market game, and the price may maintain low - level volatile operation [5][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.2305 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.5% [7]. - On January 6th, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 being 1,500 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | - 3.29% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 13.02% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,440 yuan/ton | - 0.69% | - 0.69% | - 11.11% | - 10.56% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,110 yuan/ton | - 0.89% | - 1.77% | - 5.93% | - 5.93% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,480 yuan/ton | - 2.63% | - 1.99% | - 0.67% | - 0.67% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 yuan/ton | - 2.94% | - 2.94% | 7.84% | 7.84% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,655 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | 1,659 yuan/ton | 1,625.5 yuan/ton | 18,752 | 1,195 | 36,738 | + 1,564 | | Coking Coal | | 1,096 points | - 0.09% | 1,098 points | 1,062 points | 898,934 | 211,193 | 499,345 | - 2,636 | [12] Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, etc.) over the years, as well as charts related to domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal line - screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][14][18][19][24]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has slightly improved recently, and prices have seen a phased rebound, but the fundamentals are still weak and lack support for price rebounds [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, with a sharp price movement in the night session. The price of high - quality coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [3]. Supply - This week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the month. Coke enterprises started to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions were still weak. Large - mine long - term contracts had low cost - effectiveness, and downstream procurement was inactive. Mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 42,000 tons and 101,000 tons respectively [3]. Demand - The demand is in a downward trend. Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continuously suppressed the rigid demand for raw materials [3]. Import - According to customs data, China's coking coal imports have generally remained at a relatively high level in recent months. In November, China imported 1.07315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 624,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal customs clearance in December continued to remain at a high level, and the port supervision area mainly increased inventories [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production is slightly repaired, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has increased significantly; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the oscillation range, testing the support below [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The coking coal and coke futures prices continued the downward trend of oscillation yesterday, trading at a discount to the spot, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month prices. The spot market was generally weak and stable, and the price of the main coking coal in the main producing areas decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton [3] Supply Side - This week, many coal mines in Luliang, Shanxi continued to return to full production, and the raw coal output increased significantly. In Zichang, Yan'an, Shaanxi, local transportation was restored, and the coal mines involved resumed production, driving up the overall output data. The daily average output of clean coal this week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons compared with the previous week, but it still remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. Recently, the phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted, which promoted the recovery of molten iron production. The daily average molten iron output last week rebounded to 2.3688 billion tons, an increase of 266,000 tons compared with the previous week. Attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and the changes in the production rhythm of steel mills in the later stage [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Coke - As of the week ending November 7, the total daily coke production of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1096800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11200 tons. The daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2342200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21400 tons. The steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83%, with over 60% of steel mills in a loss state, indicating continued pressure on coke demand. - In terms of inventory, the coke inventory at all links in the industrial chain decreased this week. As of the latest data on November 7, the total coke inventory in the statistical scope was 8870500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129700 tons. - Overall, due to environmental protection restrictions and operating pressure, the supply and demand of coke are both weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply [6][36]. Coking Coal - As of the week ending November 7, the daily refined - coal production of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 738000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 47000 tons. The total daily coke production of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1096800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11200 tons. - In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 7, coking coal accumulated in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain and decreased in the lower reaches. The inventory of independent coking plants increased by 175400 tons week - on - week, the port inventory increased by 141200 tons week - on - week, and the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 90200 tons week - on - week. - Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor is the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [7][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial News - **Heavy - pollution weather orange alert in Henan**: Starting from November 10, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, many places in Henan may experience continuous moderately polluted weather. Zhengzhou, Puyang, Jiaozuo, Jiyuan and other cities have launched heavy - pollution weather orange alerts. The poor meteorological conditions are expected to last until the end of the week, and the air quality will improve with the influence of northwest cold air [9]. - **Online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ER Company**: On November 10, Mongolia's ER Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 refined coal (A11, V20 - 28, S0.85, G75, Mt10) was 800 yuan/ton. All 12800 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 1010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with November 6. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being February 8, 2026 [10]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Same - Period Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1620 yuan | +3.18% | +3.18% | - 4.14% | - 14.29% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1570 yuan | +0.64% | +1.29% | - 3.09% | - 11.30% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1435 yuan | +3.24% | +3.24% | +21.61% | +0.35% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1670 yuan | +0.60% | +0.60% | +12.08% | - 3.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1800 yuan | +3.45% | +3.45% | +17.65% | +5.88% | [11] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open - Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1743.5 | - 1.19 | 1773.0 | 1731.0 | 21122 | 3924 | 37267 | - 162 | | Coking Coal | | 1265.5 | - 1.02 | 1276.0 | 1247.0 | 835521 | 5573 | 626571 | - 11859 | [15] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: The report provides charts of coke inventory in 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory [16][17][18][20]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report provides charts of coking coal inventory at mine mouths, in ports, and in 247 sample steel mills, as well as the coking - coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants [22][25][27][33]. - **Other Charts**: The report also includes charts of domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [29][30][34]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke are both weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor is the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [36][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is experiencing high - level oscillations supported by supply narratives. The recent acceleration in the decline of downstream steel mill开工 has reignited market concerns about negative feedback, potentially suppressing the further upward movement of raw material prices. Additionally, the relatively quiet policy front and the divergence in macro - risk appetites at home and abroad have restricted the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: In some northern main production areas, production recovery has fallen short of expectations due to factors such as environmental protection, leading to a slight week - on - week decline in the overall domestic capacity utilization rate. The increase in Mongolian coal vehicle traffic has driven a week - on - week rise in port inventory [3] - **Demand**: Coking enterprises have achieved a certain amount of inventory replenishment, with a significant week - on - week increase in the raw material inventory of independent coking enterprises. The continuous decline in the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills has intensified concerns about negative feedback [4] - **Macro**: Recently, the policy front has been relatively quiet, and there has been a divergence in macro - risk appetites at home and abroad, which has restricted the further upward breakthrough of the valuation of domestic risk assets to some extent [4] 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 848.39 (- 3.42); FW clean coal 432.95 (- 1.97); Independent coking plant daily average 63.59 (- 1.0); Steel mill and coking enterprise daily average 46.09 (- 0.12) | | | Demand | Iron ore output 234.22 (- 2.14) | Iron ore output 234.22 (- 2.14) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 11.3; Mine raw coal - 12.4; Mine clean coal + 1.1; Independent coking - 9.0; Independent coking + 17.5; Steel mill - 2.4; Steel mill coking - 9.0; Port - 1.6; Port + 14.1; FW port + 22.9 | | | Profit | Commodity coal 569 (+ 34) | Average coking enterprise profit - 22 (+ 10) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1362 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1718 | [6] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: Data on the start - up rate of 523 sample mines, FW raw coal production, and daily average clean coal production of 523 sample mines are presented [8] - **Monthly**: Data on the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal are provided [11] - **Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three ports, are shown [13][16][17][19] - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 4.15 tons week - on - week to 136.13 tons, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 0.77 tons week - on - week to 80.35 tons [24] - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 304.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.12 tons [26] - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises are provided, including regional and capacity - segmented data [29][31][33] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their sample coking plants are presented, including regional data [34] 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity Utilization** - **Coking Plant**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - enterprise data, as well as data segmented by capacity and region, are provided [37] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises are shown [39] - **Output** - **Coking Plant**: Data on the daily average output of coke in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - enterprise data, are provided [41] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the daily average output of coke in 247 steel enterprises are shown [43] - **Inventory** - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - enterprise data, are provided [45] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory and average available days of coke in 247 steel enterprise sample coking plants, including regional data, are presented [46][48][49] - **Full - sample Aggregate**: Data on the total coke inventory and supply - demand difference are provided [51][53] - **Demand - Pig Iron**: Data on the daily average output of pig iron in 247 steel enterprises are presented [53] - **Profit**: Data on the spot - month contract profit of coke per ton, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the price of metallurgical coke are provided [57][58] 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The futures market conditions of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, are presented [61] - **Coke Futures**: The futures market conditions of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, are presented [63] - **Coal and Coke Calendar Spread**: Data on the spread between JM2601 and JM2605, and between J2601 and J2605 are provided [66] - **Coal and Coke Spot**: Data on the spot prices of coking coal and coke, including vehicle - board prices of different types of coking coal and the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke, are presented [69] - **Coal and Coke Basis**: The JM basis has declined as the spot price reached a high level [71]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Coal and Coke Daily Report [4] - Title: "Mixed Signals, Coal and Coke Trading in a Range" [4] Group 2: Core Views - **Coke**: On October 28, the coke main contract closed at 1,747.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.96%. The closing position was 39,733 lots, a decrease of 755 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; at Qingdao Port, it was 1,530 yuan/ton, up 2.68% week - on - week. Currently, there is intense upstream - downstream gaming in the coke market, with insufficient fundamental support. The relative positives are cost support from coking coal and sentiment support from improved domestic and international macro conditions [5][30] - **Coking Coal**: On October 28, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,242 points, down 0.76% intraday. The closing position was 650,364 lots, a decrease of 17,467 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,340 yuan/ton, up 2.29% week - on - week. Overall, there are no significant short - term changes in the coking coal fundamentals. Strong expectations support the coking coal main contract to trade in a range. Future attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US trade measures and supply changes in major production areas [5][30] Group 3: Industry News - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From October 20th to October 26th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6926 million square meters, a 3.3% increase month - on - month and a 25.2% decrease year - on - year. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in these 10 cities was 2.2564 million square meters, a 3.3% increase month - on - month and a 15.8% decrease year - on - year [7] - **Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze**: On October 28, the coking coal price in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal with A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1,600 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [8] Group 4: Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | +3.29% | +6.80% | -7.10% | -16.93% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Ex - Warehouse) | 1,530 yuan/ton | +2.68% | +4.79% | -5.56% | -15.93% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,340 yuan/ton | +2.29% | +4.69% | +13.56% | -9.46% | | Jingtang Port Australian - Produced Coking Coal | 1,640 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +1.86% | +10.07% | -5.75% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced Coking Coal | 1,740 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +1.75% | +13.73% | -2.25% | [9] Group 5: Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,747.5 yuan/ton | -0.96% | 1,786.5 yuan/ton | 1,740.0 yuan/ton | 17,044 lots | -3,423 lots | 39,733 lots | -755 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,242.0 yuan/ton | -0.76% | 1,272.0 yuan/ton | 1,239.5 yuan/ton | 848,493 lots | -128,259 lots | 650,364 lots | -17,467 lots | [12] Group 6: Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Includes charts of 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory [13][14][15][16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Covers charts of mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal inventory [17][20][22][27] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mills' production situation, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [24][25][28][29] Group 7: Market Outlook - **Coke**: Same as the core view, with short - term intense upstream - downstream gaming, insufficient fundamental support, and relative positives from cost and macro sentiment [5][30] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term fundamentals show no significant changes, with strong expectations supporting range - bound trading. Future focus is on Sino - US trade measures and supply in major production areas [5][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Coke**: With strong cost support, coke is in a strong and volatile state. The spot price of coking coal at the cost end is firm, leading to a slight contraction in coke enterprise profits. Some coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices for the second round, but downstream steel mills also have meager profits, increasing industry stalemate. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side this week. The inventory of coke in the industrial chain has decreased. The upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expectation of policy benefits [4][42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: Strong expectations still exist, and coking coal is operating strongly. This week, the supply of coking coal increased while the demand decreased, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. However, the release of downstream procurement demand in the spot market supported the price. The inventory of coking coal has shifted downstream. Although the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to maintain a strong and volatile operation [5][45]. Summary by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke for平仓 is 1,520 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly increase of 3.40%, an annual decrease of 10.06%, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.65%. The current price of Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke for出库 is 1,460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.39%, no monthly change, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.65% [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,260 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.56%, a monthly decrease of 1.56%, an annual increase of 6.78%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.25%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,540 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.32%, a monthly decrease of 4.35%, an annual increase of 3.36%, and a year - on - year decrease of 16.76%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,660 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 2.92%, an annual increase of 8.50%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.87% [7]. 1.2 Futures Market - The report provides the period - to - spot price difference charts of coke 01 and 05 contracts, as well as coking coal 01 and 05 contracts, but does not provide specific data analysis [13][15][16]. 2 Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply Side - **Coke**: As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 0.15%. The daily coke output was 52.18 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.36 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill coking plants was 84.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%. The daily output was 45.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.91 tons [17]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 17, the operating rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.50%. The daily output of clean coal was 26.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.40 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 290.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.20 tons. The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines was 87.30%, a week - on - week increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 0.10%. The daily output of clean coal in mines was 77.90 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.70 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.60 tons [21]. 2.2 Demand Side - **Coke**: As of October 17, the profitability rate of steel mills was 55.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.05%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 2.34%. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.27%, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The daily hot metal output was 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.59 tons [23]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 17, the total inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 tons, with available days of 11.5 days, corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 86.73 tons, a day - on - day decrease of 1.26 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 tons, with available days of 12.9 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 61.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons. The total daily consumption was 147.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85 tons [26]. 2.3 Inventory - **Coke**: As of October 17, the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 37.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 57.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.5 tons. The total inventory of four major ports was 195.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.9 tons [28]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 17, the clean coal inventory of 523 coking coal mines was 205.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.50 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 55.00 tons. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.91 tons. The total port inventory was 272.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 137.85 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.66 tons [36]. 2.4 Coking Profit - As of October 17, the profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [41]. 3 Conclusion - **Coke**: Due to the firm spot price of coking coal at the cost end, the profits of coking enterprises have slightly shrunk this week. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side. The inventory of coke in the industrial chain has decreased. The upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expectation of policy benefits [42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: This week, the supply of coking coal increased while the demand decreased, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. However, the release of downstream procurement demand in the spot market supported the price. The inventory of coking coal has shifted downstream. Although the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to maintain a strong and volatile operation [45].