Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, with the first round of coke price hikes initiated [3]. - Affected by position limits, the volatility of coal and coke prices may increase. The recent strong performance of coal and coke prices is related to market expectations and the contradiction of short - term supply - demand mismatch in the fundamentals. The transfer of cargo rights from top to bottom in the industrial chain is smooth, and the reshaping of coking coal valuation after the previous decline provides upward potential momentum. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of policy news, spot - futures behavior, and fundamentals on prices [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoints Supply - This week, some coal mines in the main production areas that were shut down or limited production due to factors such as working face replacement and maintenance resumed production, and the overall supply increased. The weekly output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 10.66 tons to 1236.27 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.74% to 86.01%. The overall customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the Ganqimaodu Port maintained a level of over 1000 vehicles [5]. Demand - Affected by the continuous decline of the futures market, the trading in the downstream and speculative sectors was relatively cautious, and the prices of high - priced resources in online auctions began to decline [5]. Inventory - Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before, and downstream continued to haul. Coal mine inventories were generally at a low level, and most had been cleared. Currently, the origin has shown a declining inventory trend for 7 consecutive weeks. The weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 17.37 tons to 226.85 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 22.72 tons to 192.97 tons [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 868.68 (+6.38); FW clean coal 444.06 (+3.09) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.81 (+0.21); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.97 (-0.19) | | Demand | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | Hot metal output 240.71 (-1.52) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 106.15; Mine clean coal - 30.18; Independent coking +7.35; Steel mill coking +4.28; Port imported coking coal - 10.23; 288 Port +2 | MS total inventory - 2.82; Independent coking - 6.50; Steel mills - 13.29; Ports +16.97 | | Profit | Commodity coal 418 (+65) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 45 (+9) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1328; Lvliang Shenjiamao 894; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 973 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1460 | [7] Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The supply data includes the production of raw coal and clean coal from coal washing plants and coal mines, as well as the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [9][10][11][13][14]. Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the weekly inventory of raw coal from sample coal mines decreased by 14.18 tons to 194.71 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 13.86 tons to 118.77 tons [17]. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 282.11 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.23 tons [22]. - Coking plant inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are presented, including overall and regional data [25][27]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [30]. Coke Fundamental Data Supply - Capacity utilization: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills are shown, including overall and regional data [33][34][35][37]. - Output: The daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mills is presented [39][41]. Inventory - Coking plant inventory: The inventory of coke in coking plants is shown, including overall and historical data [43]. - Steel mill inventory: The inventory and available days of coke in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [44][46][47]. - Total inventory: The total inventory of coke from all samples is presented [49]. Demand - The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the daily output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises [51]. Profit - The profit data of coke includes the disk profit per ton of coke, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises, and the spot profit per ton of coke [54][55]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2509 and coking coal 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [59]. Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2509 and coke 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [62]. Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coal and coke are presented [66]. Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions are shown [69]. Coal and Coke Basis - On August 1st, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was - 68 (futures at a discount to the spot), and the basis of coke was 125 (futures at a premium to the spot) [73].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending June 27, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1197 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.15 thousand tons. After the fourth round of coke price cuts on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4229 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.11 thousand tons, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week. The coke fundamentals have not worsened further, and upstream coking coal and policy expectations bring certain benefits. It is expected that coke will maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending June 27, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 738 thousand tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week and 35 thousand tons lower than the same period last year. In late June, some mines in the main production areas were shut down for rectification due to safety issues, but most are expected to resume production in the short term. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4207 vehicles, a weekly increase of 374 vehicles. The total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased by 0.15 thousand tons week - on - week. With the previous negative factors being gradually realized, the phased contraction of coking coal supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, the steel industry's profit was 3.169 billion yuan. The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 272.043 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 7.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit decreased by 1.5%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 0.3%, and private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4% [8]. - On June 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1170 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1220 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1140 yuan/ton | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 41.54% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 865 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 0.83% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 42.31% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1421.5 | 2.52 | 1422.0 | 1389.0 | 28193 | 5398 | 53145 | 1846 | | Coking Coal | - | 847.5 | 4.89 | 848.0 | 820.5 | 1179647 | 308648 | 582668 | 18006 | [13] Related Charts The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal inventory), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][21][27]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: It is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July to prevent the cost support from collapsing again [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: The phased contraction of supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July, so close attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [6][34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Despite reduced macro disturbances and improved market sentiment, the overall performance of coking coal remains weak due to continuous increase in supply and a potential peak - to - decline trend in hot metal production. Prices are currently treated as a rebound with a short - bias [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, with prices hitting new lows. The spot market saw steel mills complete the first round of price cuts on coke prices, and there is an expectation of further cuts, indicating a poor coking coal and coke fundamentals [2][3] Supply Side - Upstream coking coal inventories at coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. Although production decreased last week due to major mine overhauls in Shanxi and Anhui and tightened safety in Shanxi, coal production is expected to recover after the overhauls. After the suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance during the May Day holiday, the clearance volume has rebounded, and port inventories have increased again, resulting in an overall sufficient supply of coking coal [3] Demand Side - The overall demand is currently at a high level but is expected to decline in June. The overall profitability rate of steel mills is nearly 60%, and production enthusiasm is relatively high, with a daily average hot metal output of 243.6 thousand tons last week. However, the supply surplus of coking coal and coke is still prominent despite the high hot metal output [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The absolute prices of coking coal and coke are hard to say to have reached the bottom. Although the valuation is at a relatively low level, there are still downward drivers. Affected by market sentiment, coking coal and coke will still be short - allocated varieties in the black market and are expected to be in a weak and volatile state [1][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - The coking coal main contract JM2509 opened at 850.5 yuan/ton last week, with the highest at 864.0 yuan/ton, the lowest at 801.0 yuan/ton, and closed at 801.5 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price. It had a trading volume of 2,036,815.0 lots and an open interest of 521,877.0 lots. - The coke main contract J2509 opened at 1,442.5 yuan/ton, with the highest at 1,453.5 yuan/ton, the lowest at 1,376.0 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,383.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 55.0 yuan/ton compared with the previous week's settlement price. It had a trading volume of 106,856.0 lots and an open interest of 55,648.0 lots [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 133 yuan/ton. The basis of coke was 12 yuan/ton [4] Spread Analysis - The spread between the 2509 coke contract and the 2509 coking coal contract was 581.5 yuan/ton [4] Domestic Spot - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was priced at 1030 yuan/ton; S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) in Shaheyi was 935 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 3) in Shaheyi was 978 yuan/ton [5] Port Inventory and Quotations Port Inventory - As of May 24, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 722.00 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons; at Jingtang Port was 857.30 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 44.60 million tons [11] Port Quotations - The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1400 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse prices of Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port, Lianyungang Port, Rizhao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1305 yuan/ton, 1305 yuan/ton, 1190 yuan/ton, and 1295 yuan/ton respectively [11] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of May 23, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 717.21, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,900.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 983.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [13] Coking Industry Coke Price Index - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1160 yuan/ton; in Tangshan was 1360 yuan/ton; and at Rizhao Port was 1260 yuan/ton [16] Coke Inventory - This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and that of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [19] Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with the lower support level at 750 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 900 yuan/ton. - The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with the lower support level at 1300 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level at 1600 yuan/ton [23] Views and Operation Suggestions - Views: The absolute prices of coking coal and coke are hard to say to have reached the bottom. The supply is loose, and the upstream coal mines are still accumulating inventory. As the downstream enters the off - season, the intensity of rigid - demand restocking weakens. - Operation Suggestions: Conduct range trading [23][24]