高市试图效仿安倍内阁的执政风格与政策，但其"大举支出、维持低利率"的经济政策似乎更适合2012 年，而非2026年。在通胀持续背景下，日本如今的经济环境已与十几年前大不相同。高市的大规模支出 缺乏提升经济生产能力的增长战略，减税和对家庭支出的支持只会加剧通胀，带来生活成本危机。正如 我们本周刊发的另一篇文章所说，高市内阁政策无法解决日本经济疲软的根本问题。 澳大利亚国立大学东亚论坛网站5日刊发题为《高市的短期民粹主义政策解决不了日本的结构性问题》 的文章，认为日本首相高市早苗的经济政策陈旧过时，无法解决日本经济疲软的根本问题。文章摘要如 下： 高市早苗被视为日本前首相安倍晋三的政治"门徒"，也是英国前首相撒切尔夫人的崇拜者，自诩要成为 日本"铁娘子"。但这两位保守派前首相或许只为高市的政治风格、而非她的内阁政策提供了灵感。高市 并非撒切尔夫人那样的财政"鹰派"，她的上台更可能引发类似英国前首相特拉斯引发的"特拉斯冲击"风 险：推行激进减税政策导致国债价格暴跌，引发金融市场动荡。 高市内阁的扩张性财政政策正导致长期利率上升，日本政府债务余额占国内生产总值比重逼近250%， 偿债成本随之增加。相比之下，针对日本面 ...

日本国债因加息预期重燃而暴跌。 今天日本债券市场上，3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，作为长期利率指标的10年期新发国债收益率一度升至1.840%， 这 是自2008年6月以来的最高水平。 与此同时， 日经225指数高开低走，盘中跌幅超2%，跌超千点。 | < W | | | 日经225(N225) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12-01 14:30:26 | | | | | | | 49242.31 | | 昨收 | 50253.91 | 成交额 | 0 | | -1011.60 -2.01% | | 今井 | 50318.59 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上 涨 | 42 | 中 香 | 3 | 下 跌 | 180 | | 最高价 | 50366.74 | 市盈率 | 20.6 | 近20日 | -4.06% | | 最低价 | 49224.01 | 市净率 | 2.35 | 今年来 | 23.43% | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 高K | 月K | 日名 0 | | 叠加 51283.81 | | | | | 2.05% | | | ...

Core Insights - Japan is facing significant fiscal risks similar to the "Truss Shock" in the UK, as the market has not fully priced in the deterioration of supply and demand for ultra-long-term government bonds [1][4] - The Japanese government is finalizing a large-scale economic stimulus plan, with government spending estimated at 21.3 trillion yen, potentially reaching a total of 42.8 trillion yen when including private sector investments, raising concerns about fiscal discipline [1][6] - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a severe sell-off, with the 30-year government bond yield hitting a historical high, and both 10-year and 5-year yields reaching their highest levels since 2008 [1][4] Fiscal Policy Concerns - Nomura Securities warns that ongoing concerns about a "Truss Shock" will lead foreign investors to continue avoiding the Japanese market, exacerbated by a weakening yen and poor performance of ultra-long-term bonds [4][6] - The market is focused on whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party can gain momentum for further fiscal expansion, which could heighten concerns about fiscal policy [6][7] - The Japanese Finance Minister has raised the urgency of addressing yen depreciation, indicating that the quality and scale of economic stimulus measures should not undermine confidence in the yen or Japanese government bonds [7][8] Yield Curve Dynamics - There is significant potential for the steepening of the yield curve if the supply and demand for ultra-long-term bonds deteriorate further, with the current supply premium indicator for 30-year bonds at 48 basis points, down from a peak of 67 basis points earlier this year [6][8] - The analysis indicates that the yield curve steepening driven by fiscal concerns has not fully reflected the extent of supply and demand deterioration observed in April and May [8][10] Market Reactions - The market's response suggests a lack of effective communication from the government, as expectations for interest rate hikes have not changed despite discussions between the Prime Minister and the Bank of Japan Governor [7][8] - The current market conditions reflect deep investor concerns regarding Japan's policy outlook, emphasizing the need for the government to balance economic stimulus with maintaining fiscal credibility to avoid a "Truss Shock" scenario [10]