Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded, putting pressure on gold prices, which fell from a two-week high to around $3378 per ounce, although concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and new US tariff threats may alleviate downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The US Department of Commerce reported that July durable goods orders fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, influenced by Boeing's order volatility and the fading "front-loading" effect from previous tariff policies [3] - The US Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, which has significantly impacted the Indian stock market, with the MSCI India index underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets index for four consecutive months [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have short-term resistance at the $3400 per ounce level, with a potential static resistance at $3440 per ounce if this level is breached [4][5] - Sellers need to break below the convergence of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages around $3350 per ounce to regain control, while the next solid support level is at the 100-day moving average of $3328 per ounce [5] - Gold prices have not closed below the 100-day moving average since December 31, 2024, indicating a persistent bullish trend [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news revolves around the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which is expected to significantly influence the dollar's performance [1] - The U.S. dollar index is currently strong, hovering near a two-week high, with key resistance levels at 99.320 and 99.838, while support levels are at 98.317 and potentially 97.80 [1] - Market expectations are mixed regarding Powell's stance on interest rate cuts, with most institutions anticipating a neutral position without clear signals, despite concerns about a dovish tone [1] Group 2 - The August PMI data from S&P Global indicates strong momentum in both U.S. manufacturing and services, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above expectations, while the services PMI remains robust at 55.4 [2] - However, initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 235,000, surpassing expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, with continuing claims rising to 1.972 million [2] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, reaching an 11-day high, supported by favorable economic data and a cooling expectation for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - Technical indicators for the dollar index show strong upward momentum, with the RSI indicating that bullish forces remain strong despite a slight pullback [3] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum has weakened, indicating a shift towards bullish dominance [3] - Key support and resistance levels for the dollar index are identified, with short-term support at 98.317 and potential resistance levels at 98.950, 99.177, and 99.838 [3]

Group 1 - The latest employment data from the US indicates a weakening labor market, leading to a strong increase in gold prices as investors increase dovish bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected easing cycle in September [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that the number of continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - According to Prime Market Terminal data, traders anticipate a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] Group 2 - On August 1, gold prices surged by 2%, rising from approximately $3,281 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, and have since fluctuated between $3,350 and $3,397 per ounce, with buyers struggling to break through the $3,400 per ounce level [2] - To maintain a bullish outlook, buyers need to rise above $3,400 per ounce, which would clear the path for gold to challenge the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $3,500 per ounce. Conversely, if gold prices fall below the convergence area of the 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages (around $3,350 to $3,346 per ounce), a decline towards the 100-day moving average of $3,275 per ounce is expected [3] Group 3 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $3,392, $3,407, and $3,447, while support levels are at $3,373, $3,352, and $3,334. The momentum is strong, with a reference value greater than 67.1% [4]

"市场测试阻力位次数越多，突破概率就越大，"这位杰富瑞技术分析主管表示。一旦突破该点位，向 5800至6000点反弹"看起来完全可期"。 对于研判潜在下跌空间的交易者，4800点成为关键观察位，较4月年内低点还要低3.5%以上。 摩根大通策略师杰森·亨特认为市场可能下探该区间，甚至跌至4500点："我们怀疑这次回测或能构筑更 坚实的底部"。 智通财经APP注意到，近日美股剧烈震荡，行情反复主要受美国总统特朗普在关税问题上屡次立场逆转 影响，令华尔街众多投资者束手无策。 对杰富瑞技术分析师丹尼尔·基尔舍而言，这种剧烈波动使得通过图表研判关键点位变得尤为重要。在 他看来，当前需要紧盯的关键点位是5500——标普500指数必须突破该水平，才能收复2月历史高点以来 19%跌幅的一半。 该指数两周前收于5000点下方、几近跌入熊市后，目前已震荡回升至5376点。 若突破5500点(较周三收盘价涨幅仅需逾2%)，不仅能基本抹平4月全部跌幅，对基尔舍而言更意味着交 易策略正从"逢高抛售"转向"逢低买入"。 矛盾信号 交易员同时密切关注市场广度指标，参与反弹的个股数量增加往往意味着趋势更具持续性。当前标普 500成分股中31 ...