Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the easing of tensions in the US-China trade war has led to improved risk appetite, resulting in gold prices dropping below $4000 per ounce for the first time since mid-October, reaching a low of $3971 per ounce [1] - The US Treasury Secretary stated that a "very substantial framework agreement" was reached during the two-day talks in Kuala Lumpur, and the US is "no longer considering" imposing a 100% tariff on China [1] - Market expectations suggest a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, which typically benefits gold as it does not yield interest [2] Group 2 - FPG analyst Felix noted that aside from technical selling, gold is declining further due to the fading trade tensions that previously drove prices from $3800 to $4400 per ounce in the first three weeks of October [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish but is about to turn bearish, with gold prices likely to consolidate in the $3900-$4000 per ounce range [3] - The discussions in Malaysia led to preliminary agreements on issues such as export controls and fentanyl, renewing market optimism regarding a US-China trade agreement, which may have contributed to the recent drop in gold prices [3] Group 3 - FPG analyst Chad pointed out that with gold closing below $4000 per ounce, short sellers may target the October 9 low of $3944 per ounce, and if that level is breached, the next target would be the October low of $3899 per ounce [4] - If gold rebounds and stays above $4000 per ounce, the next resistance level would be $4100, followed by the October 22 high of $4161 per ounce [4] Group 4 - Current market indicators for gold (XAUUSD) show a bearish daily direction with resistance levels at $4025, $4046, and $4060, while support levels are at $3998, $3978, and $3948 [5]

智通财经APP获悉，尽管市场对全球贸易紧张局势缓解及美国政府即将重启的乐观预期升温，黄金价格仍维持历史高位震荡，显示避险需求持续强劲。周一 盘中，金价一度飙升3.1%至每盎司4381.52美元，刷新纪录高位。技术面指标如相对强弱指数(RSI)显示，8月以来的凶猛涨势或已过度，难以再出现这种狂 热涨势。 市场焦点集中于中美关系最新进展：美国总统特朗普表示，在双方重返谈判桌前将与中国"友好相处"，但重申若11月1日前未达成协议，将对中国商品加征 关税。值得注意的是，美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特暗示，美国政府关门状态或于本周内结束。 今年以来，贵金属市场持续飙升，黄金已连续第九周上涨，2025年迄今涨幅超65%，主要受央行持续购金、ETF资金流入以及地缘政治风险、财政债务攀 升、美联储独立性受质疑等多重避险因素驱动。 白银表现更为亮眼，年内涨幅超80%，除共享黄金的宏观避险逻辑外，伦敦市场历史性供应紧缺推动其价格走高——当前白银基准价仍高于纽约期货价，尽 管两大市场价差已从上周3美元收窄至约1美元，但跨市场套利机会仍存。 截至发稿，现货金小幅下跌0.11%至每盎司4351.70美元，美元指数微跌0.1%。白银价格跌 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded, putting pressure on gold prices, which fell from a two-week high to around $3378 per ounce, although concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and new US tariff threats may alleviate downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The US Department of Commerce reported that July durable goods orders fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, influenced by Boeing's order volatility and the fading "front-loading" effect from previous tariff policies [3] - The US Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, which has significantly impacted the Indian stock market, with the MSCI India index underperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets index for four consecutive months [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have short-term resistance at the $3400 per ounce level, with a potential static resistance at $3440 per ounce if this level is breached [4][5] - Sellers need to break below the convergence of the 21-day and 50-day moving averages around $3350 per ounce to regain control, while the next solid support level is at the 100-day moving average of $3328 per ounce [5] - Gold prices have not closed below the 100-day moving average since December 31, 2024, indicating a persistent bullish trend [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news revolves around the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, which is expected to significantly influence the dollar's performance [1] - The U.S. dollar index is currently strong, hovering near a two-week high, with key resistance levels at 99.320 and 99.838, while support levels are at 98.317 and potentially 97.80 [1] - Market expectations are mixed regarding Powell's stance on interest rate cuts, with most institutions anticipating a neutral position without clear signals, despite concerns about a dovish tone [1] Group 2 - The August PMI data from S&P Global indicates strong momentum in both U.S. manufacturing and services, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 53.3, significantly above expectations, while the services PMI remains robust at 55.4 [2] - However, initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 235,000, surpassing expectations, indicating a cooling labor market, with continuing claims rising to 1.972 million [2] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations, reaching an 11-day high, supported by favorable economic data and a cooling expectation for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - Technical indicators for the dollar index show strong upward momentum, with the RSI indicating that bullish forces remain strong despite a slight pullback [3] - The MACD indicator suggests that bearish momentum has weakened, indicating a shift towards bullish dominance [3] - Key support and resistance levels for the dollar index are identified, with short-term support at 98.317 and potential resistance levels at 98.950, 99.177, and 99.838 [3]

Group 1 - The latest employment data from the US indicates a weakening labor market, leading to a strong increase in gold prices as investors increase dovish bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected easing cycle in September [1] - The US Department of Labor reported that the number of continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations [1] - According to Prime Market Terminal data, traders anticipate a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting [1] Group 2 - On August 1, gold prices surged by 2%, rising from approximately $3,281 per ounce to $3,363 per ounce, and have since fluctuated between $3,350 and $3,397 per ounce, with buyers struggling to break through the $3,400 per ounce level [2] - To maintain a bullish outlook, buyers need to rise above $3,400 per ounce, which would clear the path for gold to challenge the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, followed by the historical high of $3,500 per ounce. Conversely, if gold prices fall below the convergence area of the 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages (around $3,350 to $3,346 per ounce), a decline towards the 100-day moving average of $3,275 per ounce is expected [3] Group 3 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $3,392, $3,407, and $3,447, while support levels are at $3,373, $3,352, and $3,334. The momentum is strong, with a reference value greater than 67.1% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by President Trump's inconsistent stance on tariffs, leaving many investors uncertain [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The S&P 500 index must break the 5500 level to recover half of the 19% decline since February's historical high [1] - The index has rebounded to 5376 points after nearly falling into a bear market below 5000 points, with a need for just over a 2% increase to surpass 5500 [2] - A breakthrough at 5500 could shift trading strategies from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows" [2] Group 2: Resistance and Support Levels - The likelihood of breaking resistance increases with the number of tests; a successful breach could lead to a rebound towards 5800 to 6000 points [4] - For traders assessing potential downside, 4800 points is a critical observation level, which is over 3.5% lower than the April low [5] - There is speculation that the market could test lower levels, potentially reaching 4500 points, with some analysts suggesting a deeper test down to 4300 points [5] Group 3: Market Breadth Indicators - The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has improved to 31%, up from less than 20% in early April, indicating a more sustainable trend [6] - Market participants are looking for this percentage to approach 50% to confirm bullish sentiment [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 in early April, indicating overselling, but has not yet reached overbought levels during the subsequent rebound [7]