Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased with the improvement of industry expectations, driving up the quotation of lithium ore prices, and the hedging opportunities in the futures market have also increased the demand for raw materials from lithium salt plants. However, the industry's supply is still under pressure, with high inventory levels, and downstream inventory - building willingness is relatively cautious. Therefore, current lithium price trading should be treated with caution. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. - The recommended operation is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,519 hands, down 30,622 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 342,146 hands, down 14,015 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,203 hands/ton, down 1 hand. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons per month, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons per month, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons per month, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The production of power batteries is 129,200 MWh per month, up 5,700 MWh. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 205,000 units, down 7,000 units. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 155,979 contracts, up 22,108 contracts; the total put position is 60,607 contracts, up 8,513 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 38.86%, down 0.0577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0460 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new - energy vehicles were newly registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86%, accounting for 44.97% of newly registered vehicles. - An A - share lithium mining enterprise executive said that the company's focus has shifted to cost reduction and control, and the current lithium price is still below most manufacturers' break - even lines. - The global power battery installed capacity increased by 110% year - on - year, and overseas shipments accounted for 30%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for now, but the industry expectations have improved, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,406 hands, up 3,550 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 322,535 hands, down 2,753 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan; the warehouse receipts on GEA are 21,036 hands/ton, down 1,844 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 696 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,655 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 218,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.65%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 24.77%, down 0.46 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 188,165 contracts, up 10,192 contracts; the total put position is 100,314 contracts, down 1,986 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.31%, down 4.1689 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.22%, down 0.0065 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - GGII: From January to May, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles were 6.975 million, a year - on - year increase of 28%, driving the global power battery installed capacity to about 369.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 35%. China's power battery installed capacity accounted for 61.4% of the global share, and six of the top ten enterprises were from China [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, in May 2025, the transaction volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.604 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and the transaction amount was 103 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative transaction volume of second - hand cars was 7.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the transaction amount was 516.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% [2]. - According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the global economic recovery strength has rebounded [2]. - The US House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and expenditure reform bill led by President Trump. The major adjustment of the subsidy mechanism for electric vehicles (EV) has attracted wide market attention. The $7,500 federal tax credit for new cars and the $4,000 credit for second - hand cars will officially end on September 30, which is expected to have a profound impact on the US new energy vehicle market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a volatile upward trend, with a decline in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material prices are under pressure, supply-side cost support is weakening, and production cuts and maintenance are increasing. Demand growth is slowing down near the end of the peak consumption season, and inventory remains high. The options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short-selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 61,080 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -6,216 hands, down 1,545 hands; the open interest of the main contract is 245,650 hands, down 14,008 hands; the spread between near and far contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 33,461 hands/ton, up 64 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 60,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 58,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is -830 yuan/ton, down 1,190 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 712 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the prices of manganese lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt lithium, and ternary materials remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of ternary materials (523 single-crystal type) and lithium iron phosphate remain unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles. The 20-day average volatility of the underlying is 28.21%, up 1.15 percentage points; the 40-day average volatility is 22.88%, up 0.70 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The total call open interest is 255,727 contracts, up 8,642 contracts; the total put open interest is 100,353 contracts, up 16,301 contracts; the put-call ratio of total open interest is 39.24%, up 5.2248 percentage points; the at-the-money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0054 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative against "involutionary" competition. The five departments including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%), and raised the overall inflation forecast for the US this year by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2% [2].

Report Information - Report Date: May 12, 2025 [1] - Writer: Wang Fuhui [2] - Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation, but the supply growth rate may slow down due to production cuts [2] - The option market shows a bullish sentiment, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly increasing [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the DIF crossing above the DEA below the 0 - axis, and the red bar expanding [2] - The recommended operation is to lightly go long on dips and control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,040 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 23,005 lots, down 924 lots [2] - The main contract's open interest is 284,312 lots, down 5,991 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 960 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 36,351 lots, up 110 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,600 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,950 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 560 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 766 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,425 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7,490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 50%, up 8% [2] - The monthly production of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18,000 MWh [2] - The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [2] - The price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of ternary material (622 - power type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (523 - single - crystal type) in China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is 57%, unchanged [2] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,277,000, up 389,000; the monthly sales are 1,237,000, up 345,000 [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.16%, up 0.85%; the cumulative sales are 3,075,000, up 985,000 [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 158,000, up 27,000; the cumulative export volume is 441,000, up 134,000 [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 17.36%, up 1.77%; the 40 - day average volatility is 16.54%, up 0.74% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 167,386 lots, up 12,616; the total put position is 61,762 lots, up 4,938 [2] - The put - call ratio of the total position is 36.9%, up 0.1828%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.26%, up 0.0062% [2] Industry News - In April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 2.23 million and 1.755 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.2% and 14.5%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.151 million and 0.905 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 40.3% and 33.9% [2] - From January to April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 8.544 million and 6.872 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.7% and 7.9%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 4.078 million and 3.324 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 44.5% and 35.7% [2] - In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.755 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, at a historically high level for April. The export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [2] - Chinese self - owned brand cars are not affected by US tariff increases, and the pressure on export reduction is not significant [2] - Due to the good market growth, the competition pressure in the auto industry has decreased significantly, and the number of price - cut models has decreased. The market has recovered, and the price war pressure has been relatively alleviated [2] - The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved substantial progress, with both sides reducing tariffs [2]