1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of sufficient supply and improving demand, with a slight reduction in industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 149,040 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 88,564 hands, down 1,625 hands; the trading volume of the main contract is 269,477 hands, down 7,101 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 440 yuan/ton, down 2,340 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 35,769 hands/ton, up 1,451 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 146,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 143,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,540 yuan/ton, down 7,680 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,320 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 12,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) remains unchanged at 6,825 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, down 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, up 124.52 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5%; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, down 26,400 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 type, 622 power - type, 523 single - crystal type) remain unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5%; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 55%, up 1%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, down 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, down 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, up 0.9%; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, up 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 131,120 contracts, up 2,581 contracts; the total holding of put options is 121,136 contracts, up 8,196 contracts; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 92.39%, up 4.5212%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.55%, down 0.0383% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized that China's industrial competitive advantages come from reform and innovation, and China will maintain a fair market order [2] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank will implement a supportive monetary policy, maintain liquidity, and promote the high - level opening of the financial industry [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the US - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said that fiscal policy will focus on investing in people, increase consumer - oriented policies, and allocate special bonds and专项资金 to promote consumption [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate opened lower and strengthened, with a 1.02% increase at the close. The trading volume decreased, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened [2] - On the fundamental side, the price of lithium ore weakened with the回调 of lithium carbonate price. Overseas miners were more willing to sell at favorable prices, and smelters were more active in inquiring and purchasing. The upstream smelters adopted a price - supporting and sales - withholding strategy, and the weekly inventory of smelters increased slightly. The export volume and average price from Chile increased significantly. The downstream battery factories maintained a strategy of buying at low prices, and the trading sentiment in the spot market became active with the price fluctuations [2] - In terms of options, the put - call ratio of holdings increased, the option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed red bars below the 0 - axis [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of sufficient supply and acceptable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 142,600 yuan/ton, down 7,520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 107,513 lots, up 3,249 lots; the main contract trading volume is 282,745 lots, down 24,677 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 220 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 35,769 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton, down 3,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,500 yuan/ton, down 3,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 9,900 yuan/ton, up 4,520 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,475 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 13,350 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 7,213 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, down 26,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 51,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 111,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 202,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 181,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 196,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 55%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) is 694,000 vehicles, down 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, down 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (China Association of Automobile Manufacturers) is 41.18%, up 0.90 percentage points; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 125,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 583,000 vehicles, up 301,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the target is 70.75%, down 4.70 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the target is 95.45%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 126,843 lots, up 3,056 lots; the total holding of put options is 114,600 lots, up 4,007 lots; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 90.35%, up 1.0065 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.58%, down 0.0884 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - On the afternoon of March 19, the spodumene concentrate auction of Albemarle ended. The auction target was 14,520 tons of spodumene concentrate produced by Wodgina, with a transaction price of CIF price SC6 2,018 US dollars/ton, expected to arrive at the port in April and be picked up from Zhenjiang Port [2] - The China Automobile Dealers Association released the "2025 National Automobile Dealer Survival Status Survey Report", indicating that in 2025, automobile dealers generally failed to meet their annual sales targets, price inversion continued, losses in new - car business intensified, the loss - making proportion of automobile dealers increased, and the profit - making proportion narrowed. Only 44.3% of dealers met their annual targets, and the situation was worse than in 2024 [2] - In February, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, down 31.7% and 23.1% month - on - month, and down 20.5% and 15.2% year - on - year. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million vehicles respectively, down 9.5% and 8.8% year - on - year. In February, new energy vehicle production and sales were 694,000 and 765,000 vehicles respectively, down 21.8% and 14.2% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of total new - car sales. From January to February, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.735 million and 1.71 million vehicles respectively, down 8.8% and 6.9% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of total new - car sales [2] - In February, new energy vehicle exports were 282,000 vehicles, down 6.6% month - on - month and up 110% year - on - year; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 391,000 vehicles, up 2.8% month - on - month and up 26.2% year - on - year. From January to February, new energy vehicle exports were 583,000 vehicles, up 110% year - on - year; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 769,000 vehicles, up 22.2% year - on - year [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract oscillated weakly, closing down 6.37%. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day [2] - Fundamentally, the price of lithium ore fluctuated with the high - level oscillation of the lithium carbonate price. Mines still had a strong sentiment to hold prices, releasing goods at high levels, and smelters were also relatively active in buying and inquiring. On the supply side, smelter production resumption was basically completed, the operating rate rebounded, and there was still a sentiment of holding prices and惜售 among upstream and traders, with some goods released at high prices. In terms of Chilean exports, exports in February declined. It is expected that after the ships arrive at the port, the domestic import volume may slightly converge, and the overall supply of domestic lithium carbonate remains sufficient. On the demand side, downstream demand was cautious, mostly adopting the strategy of buying on dips. The trading situation in the spot market was a bit light, the overall industrial inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was resilient but its sustainability needs further observation [2] - In terms of options, the put - call ratio of holdings was 90.35%, up 1.0065% month - on - month. The option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreased [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars expanded [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand. Short - term demand growth may lead to a slight reduction in industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] - The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility is decreasing [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 172,020 yuan/ton, down 4,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 129,918 hands, up 2,610 hands; the position of the main contract is 378,336 hands, down 3,216 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 2,060 yuan/ton, up 1,960 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 38,196 hands/ton, down 265 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 169,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 480 yuan/ton, up 4,520 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,155 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 7,963 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 59,470 tons, up 2,650 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the enterprise start - up rate is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, down 33,700 MWh [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of manganese acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and various ternary materials remain unchanged. The start - up rates of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate cathode are 0%, down 50 and 60 percentage points respectively. The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,041,000, down 677,000; the monthly sales volume is 945,000, down 765,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 40.28%, down 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 945,000, up 1,000; the monthly export volume is 302,000, up 2,000; the cumulative export volume is 302,000, up 152,000 [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 139,017, up 7,365; the total put position is 171,353, up 11,910; the put - call ratio of total positions is 123.26%, up 2.15 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.69, down 0.0293 [2] Industry News - In February 2026, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year - on - year and 3.2 percentage points month - on - month [2] - Shenzhen's plan supports automobile scrapping and renewal, with different subsidy standards for new - energy and fuel vehicles [2] - In Pudong New Area, personal consumers buying new cars can get district - level subsidies of up to 5,000 yuan from March 1, 2026 [2] - Some new - energy vehicle manufacturers released February delivery data and March purchase discount activities [2] - The 2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin shows that GDP increased by 5.0%, national total income increased by 5.1%, etc. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation of weak supply and demand due to the influence of the pre - holiday period. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 106,902 hands, a decrease of 1,086 hands; the position of the main contract is 353,975 hands, a decrease of 2,556 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 3,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,940 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 37,282 hands, an increase of 1,755 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 11,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,840 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,950 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 6,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume is 911.90 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly output of power batteries is 168,000 MWh, a decrease of 33,700 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 130,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 47,000 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 197,500 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, a decrease of 50 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 52,400 yuan/ton; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 0%, a decrease of 60 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,041,000 vehicles, a decrease of 677,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 945,000 vehicles, a decrease of 765,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 40.28%, a decrease of 7.65 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 945,000 vehicles, an increase of 1,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 302,000 vehicles, an increase of 152,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 102,942 contracts, an increase of 6,101 contracts; the total holding of put options is 93,278 contracts, an increase of 4,780 contracts; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 90.61%, a decrease of 0.7727 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.65%, an increase of 0.0320 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - In January, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The sales volume of power batteries was 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 28.6% and a year - on - year increase of 63.2%; the sales volume of energy - storage batteries was 46.1 GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total sales, a month - on - month decrease of 17.0% and a year - on - year increase of 164.0%. The domestic power battery loading volume was 42.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 57.2% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 48.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 32.7 GWh, accounting for 77.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 59.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [2] - Most key automobile enterprises have compressed the payment period to within 60 days, with an average payment period of about 54 days (about 10 days shorter than the same period last year), and 4 enterprises have an average payment period of less than 50 days [2] - Sichuan Province supports automobile replacement and renewal. In 2026, individual consumers who transfer their registered passenger cars through sale and purchase new - energy passenger cars in the "Catalogue of New - Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax" or fuel - powered passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less will be given a one - time subsidy. For those who exchange for eligible new - energy passenger cars, a subsidy of 8% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan; for those who exchange for eligible fuel - powered passenger cars, a subsidy of 6% of the new - car sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 13,000 yuan [2] - In January 2026, the automobile industry in China maintained stable operation. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with the production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and the sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. The new - energy automobile market maintained stable operation, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. The commercial vehicle market continued the positive trend, with both production and sales maintaining double - digit growth year - on - year in January. In terms of automobile exports, it continued to grow. The export of new - energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [2] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of lithium carbonate has increased with the improvement of industry expectations, driving up the quotation of lithium ore prices, and the hedging opportunities in the futures market have also increased the demand for raw materials from lithium salt plants. However, the industry's supply is still under pressure, with high inventory levels, and downstream inventory - building willingness is relatively cautious. Therefore, current lithium price trading should be treated with caution. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. - The recommended operation is to lightly short at high prices and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 66,660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,519 hands, down 30,622 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 342,146 hands, down 14,015 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 760 yuan/ton, up 820 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,203 hands/ton, down 1 hand. [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 698 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,759 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 42,100 tons per month, down 5,800 tons; imports are 21,145.78 tons per month, down 7,190.11 tons; exports are 286.74 tons per month, down 447.55 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 47%, down 6 percentage points. The production of power batteries is 129,200 MWh per month, up 5,700 MWh. [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 49%, up 2 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the monthly export volume is 205,000 units, down 7,000 units. [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 155,979 contracts, up 22,108 contracts; the total put position is 60,607 contracts, up 8,513 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 38.86%, down 0.0577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0460 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new - energy vehicles were newly registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86%, accounting for 44.97% of newly registered vehicles. - An A - share lithium mining enterprise executive said that the company's focus has shifted to cost reduction and control, and the current lithium price is still below most manufacturers' break - even lines. - The global power battery installed capacity increased by 110% year - on - year, and overseas shipments accounted for 30%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for now, but the industry expectations have improved, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,406 hands, up 3,550 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 322,535 hands, down 2,753 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan; the warehouse receipts on GEA are 21,036 hands/ton, down 1,844 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 696 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,655 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 218,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.65%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 24.77%, down 0.46 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 188,165 contracts, up 10,192 contracts; the total put position is 100,314 contracts, down 1,986 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.31%, down 4.1689 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.22%, down 0.0065 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - GGII: From January to May, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles were 6.975 million, a year - on - year increase of 28%, driving the global power battery installed capacity to about 369.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 35%. China's power battery installed capacity accounted for 61.4% of the global share, and six of the top ten enterprises were from China [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, in May 2025, the transaction volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.604 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and the transaction amount was 103 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative transaction volume of second - hand cars was 7.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the transaction amount was 516.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% [2]. - According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the global economic recovery strength has rebounded [2]. - The US House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and expenditure reform bill led by President Trump. The major adjustment of the subsidy mechanism for electric vehicles (EV) has attracted wide market attention. The $7,500 federal tax credit for new cars and the $4,000 credit for second - hand cars will officially end on September 30, which is expected to have a profound impact on the US new energy vehicle market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a volatile upward trend, with a decline in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material prices are under pressure, supply-side cost support is weakening, and production cuts and maintenance are increasing. Demand growth is slowing down near the end of the peak consumption season, and inventory remains high. The options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short-selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 61,080 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -6,216 hands, down 1,545 hands; the open interest of the main contract is 245,650 hands, down 14,008 hands; the spread between near and far contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 33,461 hands/ton, up 64 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 60,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 58,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is -830 yuan/ton, down 1,190 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 712 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the prices of manganese lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt lithium, and ternary materials remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of ternary materials (523 single-crystal type) and lithium iron phosphate remain unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles. The 20-day average volatility of the underlying is 28.21%, up 1.15 percentage points; the 40-day average volatility is 22.88%, up 0.70 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The total call open interest is 255,727 contracts, up 8,642 contracts; the total put open interest is 100,353 contracts, up 16,301 contracts; the put-call ratio of total open interest is 39.24%, up 5.2248 percentage points; the at-the-money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0054 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative against "involutionary" competition. The five departments including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%), and raised the overall inflation forecast for the US this year by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2% [2].

Report Information - Report Date: May 12, 2025 [1] - Writer: Wang Fuhui [2] - Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of oversupply and inventory accumulation, but the supply growth rate may slow down due to production cuts [2] - The option market shows a bullish sentiment, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly increasing [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the DIF crossing above the DEA below the 0 - axis, and the red bar expanding [2] - The recommended operation is to lightly go long on dips and control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,040 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 23,005 lots, down 924 lots [2] - The main contract's open interest is 284,312 lots, down 5,991 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 960 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 36,351 lots, up 110 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,600 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,950 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 560 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 766 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,425 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7,490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 50%, up 8% [2] - The monthly production of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18,000 MWh [2] - The price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [2] - The price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 - type) in China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of ternary material (622 - power type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (523 - single - crystal type) in China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 31,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is 57%, unchanged [2] - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,277,000, up 389,000; the monthly sales are 1,237,000, up 345,000 [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.16%, up 0.85%; the cumulative sales are 3,075,000, up 985,000 [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 158,000, up 27,000; the cumulative export volume is 441,000, up 134,000 [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 17.36%, up 1.77%; the 40 - day average volatility is 16.54%, up 0.74% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 167,386 lots, up 12,616; the total put position is 61,762 lots, up 4,938 [2] - The put - call ratio of the total position is 36.9%, up 0.1828%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.26%, up 0.0062% [2] Industry News - In April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 2.23 million and 1.755 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.2% and 14.5%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.151 million and 0.905 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 40.3% and 33.9% [2] - From January to April, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 8.544 million and 6.872 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.7% and 7.9%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 4.078 million and 3.324 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 44.5% and 35.7% [2] - In April, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.755 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, at a historically high level for April. The export of new energy passenger cars was 189,000, a year - on - year increase of 44.2% [2] - Chinese self - owned brand cars are not affected by US tariff increases, and the pressure on export reduction is not significant [2] - Due to the good market growth, the competition pressure in the auto industry has decreased significantly, and the number of price - cut models has decreased. The market has recovered, and the price war pressure has been relatively alleviated [2] - The Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved substantial progress, with both sides reducing tariffs [2]