Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the domestic soybean complex has seen increased volatility. The prices of soybean and soybean meal futures have reached new highs, and spot prices have also risen. The report expects the soybean No. 1 to trend strongly, and soybean meal to have a strong rebound, but suggests cautious chasing of rising prices and mainly adopting a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The soybean No. 1 main 2605 contract reached a high of 4941 and then declined, approaching the 5000-point mark and hitting a nearly 2-year high. The spot price in Fujin rose from 4560 yuan/ton to around 4700 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated, with the futures premium turning to discount and then back to premium [3]. - The soybean meal main 2605 contract hit a daily limit and then declined, reaching a high of 3066 and setting a phased high. The spot price in Zhangjiagang rose from 3010 yuan/ton to around 3220 yuan/ton. The basis first weakened and then strengthened, and the futures discount first decreased and then increased [3]. Supply Side - Domestic soybean sales have slowed down, and there is currently no state reserve soybean auction. As of March 6, the remaining grain ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 35% (a 4% month-on-month decrease), in Anhui to 45% (a 5% decrease), in Henan to 44% (a 5% decrease), and in Shandong to 45% (a 5% decrease). The remaining grain ratio nationwide is higher than the same period last year [3]. - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills has increased, and port soybean inventories have slightly decreased. As of March 6, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase, and port soybean inventories were 5.794 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. There is a possibility of continued purchases of US soybeans during the potential visit at the end of March and beginning of April, but currently, due to the high cost of US soybeans and the upcoming South American soybean harvest, the market may prefer to buy South American soybeans [4]. - US soybeans reached a significant high and then declined. Boosted by the US-Iran conflict, the rise in crude oil prices stimulated the demand for biofuels, and the sharp rise in US soybean oil prices supported US soybeans. Additionally, the increase in fertilizer prices raised planting costs. However, as the conflict sentiment weakened, US soybeans declined. The expected increase in the planting area of new US soybean crops should be noted, with the previous US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicting 85 million acres (a 4.7% year-on-year increase) [4]. Demand Side - The operating rate of oil mills has rapidly recovered, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As of March 6, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.47%, a significant month-on-month increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills was 5.727 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. The soybean meal output was 1.448 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 761,000 tons, a month-on-month increase; the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.306 million tons, a significant month-on-month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.14 days, a month-on-month decrease [4][5]. - Feed demand is relatively strong, but long-term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the livestock sector, pig prices have continued to decline, leading to overall losses in pig farming, with severe losses in some areas. As of March 6, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -58.9 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss; the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -237.9 yuan per head, a severe loss. The industry has held another meeting to emphasize capacity regulation. The inventory of breeding sows in large-scale farms slightly decreased in February, the number of sows culled increased slightly month-on-month, the output of piglets increased month-on-month, but sales decreased, and the inventory of commercial pigs stopped decreasing and started to increase again. In the poultry sector, egg prices have declined, increasing losses in poultry farming. The sales volume of chicken chicks still increased in February, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in production may have increased in February. Currently, the high inventory of livestock and poultry still supports feed demand, but capacity may continue to be reduced due to losses, which is unfavorable for the long-term growth of feed demand [5]. Market Outlook - At high prices, the sales of domestic soybeans have slowed down, and the remaining grain has continued to decrease. The market price remains relatively strong, and the soybean No. 1 is expected to trend strongly [5]. - The arrival of domestic soybeans has increased; there is currently no auction; the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase. The rebound of soybean meal is relatively strong. Due to the dominance of the US-Iran conflict sentiment, the volatility has increased. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing rising prices and mainly adopt a strategy of low buying and high selling within a range [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various agricultural products are as follows: - Soybean No. 1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing international tensions and rising energy prices have a significant impact on the agricultural product market, affecting both costs and prices [2][3][4] - The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products is currently not tight, but attention should be paid to the impact on new - crop costs [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybean No. 1 - The domestic soybean main contract decreased in positions today, with price fluctuations. There were auction sales today and next week, but today's auctions were mostly unsold. The price difference between Soybean No. 1 and No. 2 decreased, and Soybean No. 2 showed strong performance, increasing in positions and prices. Imported soybeans were strong due to the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on planting costs and logistics [2] Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The Dalian soybean meal increased in positions and prices today, with the main contract M2605 increasing by 180,000 lots and rising 2.75%. The US soybeans continued to fluctuate strongly at a high level. International tensions, high - level oil price fluctuations, and rising natural gas prices all supported the price of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the March USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report on the 11th [3] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic agricultural products generally rose, with soybean meal stronger than oils. The price ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal decreased significantly. The expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy boosted palm oil. The Middle - East geopolitical situation affected planting costs and logistics. The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products was not tight, and attention should be paid to the impact on new - crop costs [4] Corn - Dalian corn continued its strong trend. Port prices were stable, and some purchase prices in Shandong increased. Since March, CGS has been actively involved in corn trading. The US corn continued to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in Northeast China, state - reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [6] Live Hogs - Live hog futures showed a weak correction today, but the far - month 01 contract continued to hit new highs. Spot prices were slightly lower. The pig price was at the bottom of a historical bear market, with high inventory pressure. Potential support factors included second - fattening, frozen - product storage, and frozen - meat purchases. It is recommended to wait for the premium of far - month contracts over spot and near - month contracts to narrow before going long on far - month contracts [7] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated slightly and strengthened, and spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The average culling age of old hens was delayed. In the long - term, the egg inventory was in a downward trend. After the post - Spring - Festival correction, the low replenishment in the second half of 2025 is expected to drive up spot prices, and it is advisable to go long on the low - position on the futures market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].