出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 香港稳定币行业制度化、法治化的分界点来了。 2025年8月1日，香港《稳定币条例》正式生效。从这一刻起，香港稳定币终于从混乱走进明规则。 发币成了合法生意，但设定了较高的门槛 ——只有注册地在香港、资金实力雄厚、合规能力突出的公司才能继续"留在牌桌"，个人、散户、小作坊和灰色项目都被彻底挡在门外。 尽管门槛空前，但香港对虚拟货币的态度，已经发生了大转变——从过去谨慎甚至偏负面的防守，到如今率先落地全球首个法币挂钩稳定币全面 监管制度的转向。这背后的意图究竟是什么？ # 01 推出稳定币的两个目的 香港推动稳定币的出台， 一是防御——削弱美元霸权、防止本地铸币税流失；二是进攻——谋求在未来全球货币体系中赢得更大的主导权与话 语权 。 先来看看稳定币是什么？ 稳定币，本质上就是一种价格稳定的数字货币。最常见的是1:1锚定美元、港元等法定货币，比如USDT、USDC。你可以把它理解为"全球通用 的数字现金"：哪怕你身处不同国家，只要拥有一枚USDT或USDC，就等同于拥有一张即时可用、随时可兑换的数字美元，无论是换回法币，还 是兑换成其他加密资产，既灵活又安 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Renminbi (RMB) to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the context of a changing global trade and financial environment, particularly in the emerging G2 world [2][9]. Historical Context - Previous currencies like the Japanese Yen and Euro had opportunities to challenge the dollar but ultimately failed due to various economic and political factors [3][5][6]. - The Yen appreciated significantly from 1985 to 1989, but this did not lead to its status as a global reserve currency, highlighting that currency strength does not guarantee international acceptance [4][5]. - The Euro faced challenges from its inception, including the Eurozone debt crisis, which undermined its credibility as a reserve currency [6][10]. Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen historically with currencies from Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [7]. - The US dollar's status is supported by a favorable external environment post-World War II, characterized by globalization and reduced geopolitical conflicts [8]. - The concept of "seigniorage" allows the issuer of a reserve currency to benefit from printing money, but this is not an unlimited power, as evidenced by the US's current debt situation [8][11]. Current Situation of the Renminbi - The global interest in the RMB is increasing, driven by concerns over the US's weaponization of the dollar and the need for alternative financial systems [10][13]. - The RMB's role as a transaction currency is growing, but it still lacks the characteristics necessary for it to be a long-term reserve currency, such as liquidity and full convertibility [10][14]. - The RMB's internationalization is influenced by the relative decline of trust in the US and the rise of China's economic influence [13][14]. Future Outlook - The potential for the RMB to challenge the dollar's dominance is contingent on several factors, including the establishment of a robust RMB settlement network and the resolution of existing economic and policy risks [10][14]. - The transition to a multi-currency world may take time, as the dollar's dominance is deeply entrenched [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and current challenges faced by currencies like the Ruble, Yen, Euro, and the potential for the Renminbi to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Competition - The Ruble was once considered a competitor to the dollar until the economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union became apparent [1]. - The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a rapid appreciation of the Yen, which contributed to Japan's asset bubble, but did not result in the Yen becoming a major global reserve currency [2][3]. - The Euro has faced significant challenges since its inception, particularly during the Eurozone debt crisis, which highlighted the lack of a unified fiscal policy among member states [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen with historical currencies of Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - The US has maintained its position as the global reserve currency due to its military spending and the favorable external environment post-World War II [5][6]. Group 3: Current and Future Prospects for the Renminbi - The increasing global attention on the Renminbi is partly due to the erosion of trust in the US dollar under Trump's administration, leading to a search for alternative reserve currencies [6][9]. - The Renminbi's potential as a reserve currency is hindered by its limited circulation and the lack of liquid Renminbi-denominated assets [7][9]. - For the Renminbi to challenge the dollar, it must establish a settlement network, particularly in Asia, and build trust in its stability and convertibility [10].

Group 1 - The core idea is that the U.S. is exploring the issuance of stablecoins as a means to redefine and support U.S. Treasury bonds amidst a growing debt crisis and lack of buyers [2][3][9] - The current U.S. national debt stands at $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.5 trillion, which constitutes 30% of federal revenue [2] - The U.S. is facing a significant challenge as the largest currency supplier and the largest goods supplier are in conflict, leading to a decrease in the dollar's commodity backing [3][5] Group 2 - The potential strategy of using digital currency as a new anchor for U.S. Treasury bonds could allow for tax reductions without Federal Reserve interference, benefiting the current administration [5] - The issuance of stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by integrating them into global economies, thus expanding market space and revenue from seigniorage [5][9] - The U.S. is under pressure as countries lose confidence in U.S. debt, with Japan recently selling off U.S. bonds and using them as leverage in trade negotiations [9] Group 3 - The proposed issuance of century bonds, which would require other countries to buy long-term, no-interest U.S. bonds, is seen as a way to manipulate foreign nations into financing U.S. debt [7][9] - The current administration's approach to tariffs and trade is viewed as a means to fill budget gaps, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.833 trillion for 2024 [7] - The urgency of addressing the $36.8 trillion debt is emphasized, as failure to do so could lead to severe economic consequences in the near future [9]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the U.S. should embrace decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a strategic advantage against China, which has rejected them [1][3] - Approximately 50 million Americans currently hold Bitcoin, a number expected to grow, while China has banned cryptocurrency trading and investment since 2019 [3] - Trump's administration has initiated policies to position the U.S. as a leader in digital assets and financial technology, including the establishment of a working group for AI and cryptocurrencies [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns are raised about the regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins, particularly the potential for regulatory arbitrage and systemic risks due to relaxed reserve requirements [5][18] - The lack of transparency and potential conflicts of interest in Trump's cryptocurrency policies could lead to significant risks for the financial system [20][21] - The geopolitical implications of rejecting a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could weaken the U.S. dollar's dominance, allowing countries like China to expand their digital currency initiatives [19][27] Group 3 - The potential for a collapse of major stablecoins could trigger a broader financial crisis, affecting both the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial systems [28][29] - Recommendations for policymakers include implementing full reserve requirements for stablecoins and ensuring that they are treated similarly to banks to prevent liquidity crises [30][31] - The overall assessment indicates that Trump's cryptocurrency agenda poses high risks with low potential rewards, threatening long-term financial stability and geopolitical influence [33][34]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes on global markets and how China manages to remain stable amidst these fluctuations [1][3][19] - It explains the mechanisms of monetary policy, including expansionary and contractionary policies, and their role in managing economic cycles [3][15] - The historical context of the Bretton Woods system and the transition to the current global financial system is outlined, emphasizing the flexibility needed for economic intervention [4][6] Group 2 - The concept of seigniorage is introduced, illustrating how excessive money printing can lead to inflation and wealth transfer from citizens to the government [8][10] - The article highlights the benefits of dollar hegemony for the U.S., allowing it to print money without immediate consequences, while other nations face inflation risks if they attempt the same [10][11] - It notes that the U.S. economy is not immune to the consequences of its monetary policies, facing challenges that are exacerbated by global capital flows [11][13] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are described as a tool for controlling inflation and managing the economy, with significant increases noted since 2021 [15][17] - The article discusses the capital flight from Europe to the U.S. due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, and how this affects global investment patterns [17][19] - China's proactive measures during the pandemic, including maintaining production and supply chains, are credited with its ability to weather external economic shocks [23][25] Group 4 - China's fiscal policies, including maintaining a reasonable level of external debt and ensuring sufficient capital reserves, are highlighted as key factors in its economic resilience [25][29] - The article emphasizes China's commitment to independent economic policies and its management of the yuan, contrasting it with other nations that have adopted more liberal currency policies [26][28] - The dual security advantages of military strength and economic independence are presented as reasons for China's stability in the face of external pressures [28][29] Group 5 - The article concludes with a cautionary note about the need for China to remain vigilant against potential challenges from the U.S., as it is increasingly viewed as a competitor [31]