★伊朗局势——1伊朗称推毁两套美军萨德系统。韩媒：美国正在考虑将其在韩国的萨德和爱国者系统转移到 中东。2因持续遭导弹袭击,外媒称沙特与阿联酋考虑入局打击伊朗,阿联酋称暂未改变防御计划。3特朗 普:伊朗现在想谈判，但为时已晚。美国军备充足，足以支撑无期限作战。④外媒称以色列已正式调动部队 进行对黎巴嫩的地面入侵。⑤美国参议院将于当地时间周三对"战争权力决议"进行投票，寻求限制特朗普 对伊朗行动的权力。6伊朗驻联合国大使：伊朗尚未就可能的和平谈判与美国接触。①伊朗反对派新闻网 站：哈梅内伊之子被选定为伊朗下一任最高领袖。 ★美联储——①卡什卡利:战争阴云笼罩，原本预计2026年会降息一次，现在不确定。②威廉姆斯：美联储 将不得不考虑伊朗问题对外国市场和贸易伙伴的溢出效应。仍认为利率咯高于中性利率。③施密德：美联储 能做的唯一一件事,就是继续压低通胀。 ★能源局势 -- 1 特朗普宣布为海上原油运输提供保险,海军将扩航船舶通过霍尔木兹海峡。②拦截无人机 的碎片坠落导致阿联酋主要石油贸易枢纽Fujairah发生大火。3伊拉克石油存储设施即将满载,伊拉克将在 数日内被迫减产,幅度将超过300万桶/日。④沙特阿美探索经 ...

市场人士指出，10年期收益率跌破4%具有重要信号意义，意味着交易员开始淡化对经济稳健增长的预期，转而 押注更具风险的情景。Wisdom Fixed Income Management投资组合经理Vincent Ahn表示，若收益率跌破3.75%， 债市将基本反映出"真实的增长恐慌"。他认为，当前债市走势"明显由就业和增长担忧主导"，而催化剂正是近期 蔓延的"AI冲击"担忧，这一主题已从科技板块扩散至宏观层面。 通常情况下，债券收益率下降有利于消费者、企业及政府融资成本。例如，根据房地美数据，新发放30年期固定 按揭贷款的平均利率本周已降至6%以下，为三年多来首次。但若收益率下行源于对经济或就业前景的担忧，则 往往伴随股市回落和风险资产抛售。 除AI因素外，市场还在消化其他不确定性，包括美伊核谈判未达成协议，以及股市波动加剧等。Interactive Brokers经济学家Jose Torres指出，科技股若持续走弱，可能拖累消费支出，同时若市场对AI前景的热情降温，也 可能压制整体经济表现。 美国国债周五大幅走强，基准10年期美债收益率跌破4%关口，创四个月新低，尽管1月生产者价格指数（PPI） 意外走高。本 ...

Group 1 - The core finding of the survey indicates that due to rising prices and increasing concerns about the economic outlook, many Americans are opting to shop at second-hand stores during the holiday season, with foot traffic in these stores increasing by at least 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year [1] - From December 15 to 21, foot traffic in second-hand stores saw a nearly 11% year-on-year increase, while department store foot traffic decreased by 13.2% during the same period [1] - Traditional clothing stores experienced a year-on-year decline of over 3% in foot traffic in November, whereas second-hand clothing stores saw a significant increase of 12.7% [2] Group 2 - A survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that 87% of respondents noticed grocery prices were higher than usual in recent months, with about two-thirds reporting increased expenses for utilities and holiday gifts [2] - Approximately half of the respondents have observed a rise in gasoline prices, and 68% of those surveyed view the current state of the U.S. economy as "poor," with nearly 40% expecting the economic situation to worsen next year [2]

Group 1 - A recent survey indicates that many Americans are opting to shop at second-hand stores during this Christmas season due to rising prices and concerns about the economic outlook [1][3] - Foot traffic in second-hand stores has increased by at least 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year, with a nearly 11% increase during the week leading up to Christmas [1] - In contrast, department store foot traffic has decreased by 13.2% during the same period [1] Group 2 - The survey conducted by Placer.ai tracked consumer activity based on mobile phone usage, revealing a shift in consumer attitudes towards second-hand gifts [3] - Traditional clothing stores experienced a year-on-year foot traffic decline of over 3% in November, while second-hand clothing stores saw a significant increase of 12.7% [3] - A separate survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 87% of respondents noticed higher grocery prices, with two-thirds reporting increased utility and holiday gift expenses [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong bullish momentum, closing up for the seventh consecutive week, with expectations of reaching the target range of $3975-$4000 due to sustained buying interest [1][4]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3758.15 per ounce, hitting a low of $3756.83 before rebounding strongly, reaching a weekly high of $3896.74, and closing at $3884.53, resulting in a weekly increase of $126.38 or 3.36% [1][3]. Market Influences - The decline in the US dollar index, driven by risks of a government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts in October, has contributed to the rebound in gold prices. Despite some downward pressure from profit-taking and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, strong buying interest has supported gold's upward movement [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming US global supply chain pressure index is expected to be favorable for gold prices. The anticipated impact of the government shutdown on GDP and high probabilities of interest rate cuts in October reinforce a bullish outlook for gold [4][6]. Bullish Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 48%, with no signs of slowing down. Factors such as expectations of monetary policy easing, geopolitical risks, and strong inflows into gold ETFs continue to support a bullish market for gold [6][8]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently tested and rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band support, indicating a strong upward trend. The market is expected to continue targeting higher levels, with potential resistance at $3970 or above [8][10]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy remains bullish, with key support levels identified at $3896 and $3875, and resistance levels at $3930 and $3980. The focus is on entering long positions upon any pullbacks to support levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a pullback but remain above key support levels, indicating potential for future strength after a period of adjustment [1][3][5] Market Performance - On April 29, gold opened at $3344.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3348.38, and closed at $3317.09, marking a daily decline of $27.06 or 0.81% [1] - The trading range for the day was between $3299.70 and $3348.38, with a volatility of $48.68 [1] Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index showed a slight recovery, applying pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline, providing some support for gold [3][5] - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. Secretary of State's comments on Russia-Ukraine negotiations and threats from India towards Pakistan, have heightened risk aversion, benefiting gold prices [3][8] Future Outlook - The market anticipates that upcoming economic data, including U.S. ADP employment figures and GDP growth rates, will be favorable for gold prices [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of a potential rise towards the $3500 mark [8][10] Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate significant volatility with a range of over $540, yet gold maintains a strong upward trend above key support levels [10] - Weekly charts suggest a risk of further declines, but the overall trend remains supported by upward-moving averages and Bollinger Bands [11][12] Trading Strategy - Current trading strategy suggests monitoring support levels around $3308 and $3290, with resistance at $3328 and $3348 for gold [14]

Group 1 - The Indonesian stock market has experienced significant declines due to concerns over the economic outlook, with the Jakarta Composite Index dropping as much as 4.7%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a week [1] - The Indonesian rupiah weakened by 0.4% against the US dollar, approaching its lowest level since 1998, indicating growing investor anxiety [1] - The government's transfer of ownership of key state-owned enterprises to a new sovereign wealth fund has raised concerns about the concentration of economic decision-making [1] Group 2 - Recent weeks have seen pressure on Indonesia's financial markets, driven by fears that President Prabowo Subianto's populist agenda, including costly welfare programs, may strain national finances and threaten economic activity [2] - The transfer of state-owned enterprises to the sovereign wealth fund continues to unsettle investors, with uncertainty heightened by the government's announcement of the entire management team [2] - On March 18, the benchmark stock index fell by 7.1%, the largest single-day drop since 2011, triggering a trading halt for 30 minutes due to breaching the 5% threshold [2]