Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Platinum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Overnight, precious metals declined with high volatility. The intense situation between the US and Iran, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, and the rising oil prices have intensified concerns about the economic outlook, weakening the market's bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts. A significant decline in global stock markets may lead to further liquidity tightening and continue to suppress precious metals. Short - term market volatility has increased, and the subsequent trend is still determined by the war situation. It is recommended to control positions and participate cautiously [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Situation - Iran claims to have destroyed two sets of US THAAD systems. The US is considering transferring THAAD and Patriot systems from South Korea to the Middle East [2] - Saudi Arabia and the UAE are considering joining the fight against Iran due to continuous missile attacks. The UAE says it has not changed its defense plan for now [2] - Trump says Iran wants to negotiate but it's too late. The US has sufficient armaments for indefinite combat [2] - Israel has officially mobilized troops for a ground invasion of Lebanon [2] - The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" on Wednesday to limit Trump's power to act against Iran [2] - Iran's ambassador to the UN says Iran has not contacted the US for possible peace negotiations [2] - An Iranian opposition news website reports that Khamenei's son has been selected as Iran's next supreme leader [2] Fed - Kashkari originally expected one interest - rate cut in 2026 but is now uncertain due to the war [2] - Williams believes the Fed has to consider the spill - over effects of the Iran issue on foreign markets and trading partners and thinks the interest rate is slightly above the neutral rate [2] - Schmid says the only thing the Fed can do is to continue to suppress inflation [2] Energy Situation - Trump announces to provide insurance for maritime oil transportation, and the navy will expand the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Debris from intercepted drones causes a fire at the UAE's major oil trading hub Fujairah [3] - Iraq's oil storage facilities are nearly full, and Iraq will be forced to cut production by more than 3 million barrels per day within a few days [3] - Saudi Aramco is exploring oil exports via the Red Sea [3] - Trump says he can tolerate short - term oil price increases and prioritizes eliminating the Iranian threat [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping below 4%, reflecting concerns over economic growth rather than inflation [1][3] - The decline in bond yields is beneficial for financing costs for consumers, businesses, and governments, with the average rate for new 30-year fixed mortgages falling below 6% for the first time in over three years [3] - The discussion around the impact of AI on the economy is intensifying, with predictions suggesting that AI could lead to a recession in the U.S. by 2027 and a potential 38% drop in the S&P 500 by 2028 [4] Group 2 - Market participants are increasingly worried about the implications of AI on employment and economic growth, with a shift in logic where AI impacts jobs first before affecting the economy [5] - The current market dynamics suggest that if the 10-year yield remains between 4% and 4.5%, it indicates a stable economic outlook; however, a drop below 4% signals a potential imbalance in this outlook [5] - The technology sector has experienced significant stock price declines, with companies like Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow facing pressure, reflecting broader market concerns [4]

Group 1 - The core finding of the survey indicates that due to rising prices and increasing concerns about the economic outlook, many Americans are opting to shop at second-hand stores during the holiday season, with foot traffic in these stores increasing by at least 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year [1] - From December 15 to 21, foot traffic in second-hand stores saw a nearly 11% year-on-year increase, while department store foot traffic decreased by 13.2% during the same period [1] - Traditional clothing stores experienced a year-on-year decline of over 3% in foot traffic in November, whereas second-hand clothing stores saw a significant increase of 12.7% [2] Group 2 - A survey conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that 87% of respondents noticed grocery prices were higher than usual in recent months, with about two-thirds reporting increased expenses for utilities and holiday gifts [2] - Approximately half of the respondents have observed a rise in gasoline prices, and 68% of those surveyed view the current state of the U.S. economy as "poor," with nearly 40% expecting the economic situation to worsen next year [2]

Group 1 - A recent survey indicates that many Americans are opting to shop at second-hand stores during this Christmas season due to rising prices and concerns about the economic outlook [1][3] - Foot traffic in second-hand stores has increased by at least 10% year-on-year in the second half of the year, with a nearly 11% increase during the week leading up to Christmas [1] - In contrast, department store foot traffic has decreased by 13.2% during the same period [1] Group 2 - The survey conducted by Placer.ai tracked consumer activity based on mobile phone usage, revealing a shift in consumer attitudes towards second-hand gifts [3] - Traditional clothing stores experienced a year-on-year foot traffic decline of over 3% in November, while second-hand clothing stores saw a significant increase of 12.7% [3] - A separate survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 87% of respondents noticed higher grocery prices, with two-thirds reporting increased utility and holiday gift expenses [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong bullish momentum, closing up for the seventh consecutive week, with expectations of reaching the target range of $3975-$4000 due to sustained buying interest [1][4]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3758.15 per ounce, hitting a low of $3756.83 before rebounding strongly, reaching a weekly high of $3896.74, and closing at $3884.53, resulting in a weekly increase of $126.38 or 3.36% [1][3]. Market Influences - The decline in the US dollar index, driven by risks of a government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts in October, has contributed to the rebound in gold prices. Despite some downward pressure from profit-taking and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, strong buying interest has supported gold's upward movement [3][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming US global supply chain pressure index is expected to be favorable for gold prices. The anticipated impact of the government shutdown on GDP and high probabilities of interest rate cuts in October reinforce a bullish outlook for gold [4][6]. Bullish Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 48%, with no signs of slowing down. Factors such as expectations of monetary policy easing, geopolitical risks, and strong inflows into gold ETFs continue to support a bullish market for gold [6][8]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently tested and rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band support, indicating a strong upward trend. The market is expected to continue targeting higher levels, with potential resistance at $3970 or above [8][10]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy remains bullish, with key support levels identified at $3896 and $3875, and resistance levels at $3930 and $3980. The focus is on entering long positions upon any pullbacks to support levels [10].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a pullback but remain above key support levels, indicating potential for future strength after a period of adjustment [1][3][5] Market Performance - On April 29, gold opened at $3344.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3348.38, and closed at $3317.09, marking a daily decline of $27.06 or 0.81% [1] - The trading range for the day was between $3299.70 and $3348.38, with a volatility of $48.68 [1] Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index showed a slight recovery, applying pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline, providing some support for gold [3][5] - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. Secretary of State's comments on Russia-Ukraine negotiations and threats from India towards Pakistan, have heightened risk aversion, benefiting gold prices [3][8] Future Outlook - The market anticipates that upcoming economic data, including U.S. ADP employment figures and GDP growth rates, will be favorable for gold prices [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of a potential rise towards the $3500 mark [8][10] Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate significant volatility with a range of over $540, yet gold maintains a strong upward trend above key support levels [10] - Weekly charts suggest a risk of further declines, but the overall trend remains supported by upward-moving averages and Bollinger Bands [11][12] Trading Strategy - Current trading strategy suggests monitoring support levels around $3308 and $3290, with resistance at $3328 and $3348 for gold [14]

Group 1 - The Indonesian stock market has experienced significant declines due to concerns over the economic outlook, with the Jakarta Composite Index dropping as much as 4.7%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a week [1] - The Indonesian rupiah weakened by 0.4% against the US dollar, approaching its lowest level since 1998, indicating growing investor anxiety [1] - The government's transfer of ownership of key state-owned enterprises to a new sovereign wealth fund has raised concerns about the concentration of economic decision-making [1] Group 2 - Recent weeks have seen pressure on Indonesia's financial markets, driven by fears that President Prabowo Subianto's populist agenda, including costly welfare programs, may strain national finances and threaten economic activity [2] - The transfer of state-owned enterprises to the sovereign wealth fund continues to unsettle investors, with uncertainty heightened by the government's announcement of the entire management team [2] - On March 18, the benchmark stock index fell by 7.1%, the largest single-day drop since 2011, triggering a trading halt for 30 minutes due to breaching the 5% threshold [2]