Workflow
稳物价
icon
Search documents
CPI转涨,下半年政策仍需锚定“稳物价”
Economic Growth and Price Stability - The challenges for the second half of the year include stabilizing growth, prices, exports, and investments, requiring continuous counter-cyclical adjustment policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target [1][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June after four months of decline, indicating a need for further policy support to stabilize prices [2][4] - The rise in June's CPI was influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, with oil prices showing a recovery after hitting a low in early May [2][3] Consumer Demand and Industrial Prices - The "two重" and "两新" policies have stimulated domestic demand, particularly in the home appliance and electronics sectors, contributing positively to overall prices [3] - Despite the recovery in consumer goods, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remains weak, affecting corporate profitability and potentially limiting investment expansion [3][4] Policy Expectations - Market expectations for policy direction in the second half remain focused on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices, with a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [4] - Fiscal policy will rely on the issuance of government and local bonds to maintain necessary financing growth, supporting sectors like "两重" and "两新" [4]
硅锰市场周报:央行例会提稳物价,关税仍存不确定性-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 09:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate. The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has improved market sentiment, but the alloy manufacturers' inventory remains high and the steel demand is in the off-season [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week's Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspects**: The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasizes improving product quality and phasing out backward production capacity, which has greatly improved market sentiment. The China Iron and Steel Association advises enterprises to be rational about billet exports, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology addresses the disorderly low - price competition in the photovoltaic industry [6]. - **Overseas Aspects**: US President Trump doesn't consider extending the tariff grace period, and the US Treasury Secretary believes China will speed up rare - earth exports. Trump has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, but the inventory is still high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 0.9 tons, downstream hot - metal production is high, and coal price rebound supports the price. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 180 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical Aspects**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - manganese main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment and fundamentals, the silicon - manganese market should be treated as oscillating [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - As of July 4, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 589,600 lots, a week - on - week increase of 6,683 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 44.0, up 10 week - on - week [12]. - As of July 4, the silicon - manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 88,686, a week - on - week decrease of 3,313. The September contract spread between silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was 284, down 16 week - on - week [16]. Spot Market - As of July 4, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was - 212 yuan/ton, down 36 week - on - week [23]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Industry - The operating rate of silicon - manganese manufacturers has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, with both supply and demand increasing week - on - week. The national operating rate was 40.34%, up 1.13% from last week. The daily average output was 25,730 tons, an increase of 125 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese was 126,789 tons, up 0.72% week - on - week, and the national silicon - manganese output was 180,110 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week [26]. - As of July 3, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 500 tons to 222,300 tons. Inner Mongolia's inventory decreased by 1,000 tons, Ningxia's increased by 5,000 tons, etc. [31] Upstream - As of July 3, the prices of South African and Australian manganese ores at Tianjin Port remained unchanged week - on - week. As of June 30, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron production remained unchanged week - on - week [37]. - As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 0.9 tons to 422.4 tons. This week, 50.52 tons of South African manganese ore arrived in China, a 98% increase from last week and an 11% increase from the same period last year, and there was no arrival from other major shipping countries [43]. - On July 4, the northern region's silicon - manganese spot production cost was 5,680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the southern region's was 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The northern region's spot production profit was - 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the southern region's was - 480 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [47]. Downstream - This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.85 tons, a decrease of 1.44 tons from last week but an increase of 1.53 tons from the same period last year. In June, HeSteel's silicon - manganese tender price was 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from May [50].
经观月度观察|经济回稳向好,政策更多聚焦“增收”
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-04-28 15:25
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for policies to focus more on "stabilizing income" amid increasing external shocks, aiming to consolidate the recovery foundation through coordinated efforts in consumption and investment [1] CPI Summary - The CPI for March is reported at -0.1%, an improvement from -0.5% in the previous month, indicating a positive feedback on policy effectiveness and expectations [2] - The core CPI turning positive suggests a marginal recovery in consumer demand, driven by initiatives like "old-for-new" exchanges and improvements in service prices [2] - Current consumption promotion policies are primarily supply-side focused, highlighting the need for more actions on the income side to stabilize prices [2] PPI Summary - The PPI for March is reported at -2.5%, a slight increase in the decline compared to -2.3% in February, reflecting ongoing economic pressures and insufficient effective demand [3] - The first quarter PPI shows a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a narrowing of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, indicating some stabilization in processing industry prices [3] PMI Summary - The manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 50.5%, up from 50.2% in February, indicating a continuous recovery in manufacturing activity [4][5] - The "PMI new orders - finished goods inventory" index has increased by 1 percentage point, confirming a positive trend in manufacturing momentum [4] Fixed Asset Investment Summary - Fixed asset investment growth for March is reported at 4.3%, with private investment rising to 0.4% [6] - Real estate investment continues to decline at -10%, while infrastructure investment has increased to 12.6% and manufacturing investment remains high at 9.2% [6] Credit Summary - New loans in March reached 36,400 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 30,900 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in loan growth [6] - The stock of loans has grown by 7.4%, with corporate loans increasing by 9.3% compared to 9.1% in February [6] M2 Summary - M2 growth for March is reported at 7.0%, remaining stable compared to February [7] - The reduction in fiscal deposits and the return of wealth management funds to the market have contributed to M2 expansion [7]