为什么再次推迟？ 懂王给出的说辞是： 为所有面临对等关税的国家争取额外的三周时间谈判。 今天出了一个大新闻，那就是懂王签署了最新的行政令宣布： 将对等关税生效日和谈判截止日期从7月9日延后到8月1日。 大家都知道4月份是懂王首次开始执行对等关税，随后因为整个美国的资本市场反应太大，再加上 几个大国的硬抗，才让懂王妥协选择把关税执行延后了3个月，也顺便给出时间和几个大国协商调 整关税。 这个月9号，3个月延长期就到期了，按理说应该是关税重新生效的时候，但是懂王却选择了再次 推迟。 第一，对关税彻底妥协的国家太少。 这一轮关税博弈进行到现在，彻底向老美"下跪"的国家其实不多，数来数去也就越南和一些和老 美贸易量非常小的小国。 懂王原本想要从那些大国身上狠狠敛财的，但最后发现没一个妥协。 就连一向顺从老美的小弟，比如欧洲和日韩，都还在继续和美国周旋，寄希望于减少关税。 懂王是一个不愿意吃亏的人，也是一个好面子的人。 看起来好像懂王很善解人意，还给各个国家更多的时间谈判和缓冲。 但在我看来，这一回再次延长关税的执行，给其他国家更多的谈判时间只是一个借口 推迟的主要原因有两个： 我这么大张旗鼓地去搞对等关税，但实际收益 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over the fiscal outlook have led to a "fiscal reckoning" for U.S. Treasuries, with credit default swap (CDS) spreads rising to their highest levels in two years [1][5] - In May, U.S. Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, experienced their first monthly decline since 2025, with yields increasing by 4 to 7 basis points on June 2 [1][3] - The rise in CDS spreads is attributed to investor worries about the U.S. government's ability to meet its debt obligations, with the 5-year CDS spread nearing 50 basis points, up from approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.47% and the 30-year yield briefly exceeding 5%, reflecting risks associated with potential trade measures from the Trump administration [3][4] - Despite the increase in long-term yields, large bond investment institutions are maintaining lower positions in Treasuries, favoring shorter maturities [3][6] - The CDS spread increase is seen as a temporary reaction by investors awaiting a new budget agreement to raise the debt ceiling, rather than an indication of an impending financial crisis or widespread default [6][7] Group 3 - The upcoming labor market reports are expected to significantly influence U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 [4] - The U.S. Treasury has reached its debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion, with limited borrowing capacity, raising concerns about the timing of when the government will exhaust its borrowing ability [5][6] - The passage of Trump's significant tax cut plan, estimated to increase U.S. debt by an additional $4 trillion, adds to the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and its impact on Treasury investments [6][7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserts that the U.S. will "never default" on its debt, countering concerns raised by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon about a potential collapse in the bond market [1] - Bessent's confidence is juxtaposed with warnings from the Congressional Budget Office, which indicated that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed levels not seen since the 1940s in the coming years [1] - Dimon has expressed ongoing concerns regarding excessive government spending and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, which he believes have created a "ticking time bomb" for the bond market [3] Group 2 - Trump's proposed "Big Beautiful Plan" is projected to increase the federal deficit significantly, with estimates suggesting an addition of approximately $3 trillion to the debt over the next decade [2] - Despite concerns about rising deficits, the Trump administration claims that the plan will not increase the deficit, citing potential economic growth and increased revenue from new tariffs [2] - Dimon warns that if the U.S. enters a recession, the current deficit of about $2 trillion, which is approximately 7% of GDP, could rise to 10% [3]

Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - The U.S. government faces a potential debt default as $6.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds are set to mature by June 2025, with a significant portion of short-term debt due in June 2023 estimated at around $2.3 trillion [1] - The interest on U.S. Treasury bonds has increased significantly, with new debt interest rates rising to 4.5% to 5%, contrasting sharply with previous near-zero rates, leading to a projected $1 trillion in interest payments for the fiscal year [3] - The proportion of short-term debt has exceeded 20%, raising concerns about liquidity crises if the market refuses to absorb new debt [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The Trump administration is attempting to shift blame for increasing deficits onto external factors, such as China's potential sale of U.S. debt and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, ahead of the September debt ceiling negotiations [3] - Tensions between the U.S. and South Africa have been highlighted, with Trump's decision to attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg seen as a significant shift in U.S. diplomatic posture [5] - Trump's primary objective for attending the G20 summit appears to be to create an opportunity for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese leaders, as he has not yet engaged with them since taking office [8]

Group 1 - China's gold imports reached a record high of 127.5 tons in April, marking a 73% increase, as a response to escalating trade tensions with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, prompting China to prepare for potential trade sanctions and to import gold as a safeguard against economic instability [1][3] - The Chinese government has issued warnings against companies cooperating with U.S. sanctions on Chinese enterprises, indicating a firm stance in the ongoing trade conflict [3][8] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing a significant debt challenge, with $6 trillion in bonds maturing in June and a total debt exceeding $36 trillion, raising concerns about potential defaults and global economic repercussions [5] - The Federal Reserve has not provided any statements regarding the debt situation, increasing uncertainty in the market and highlighting the necessity for China to import gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Historical context suggests that China has a strong resolve in protecting its national interests, indicating that it is prepared for further escalations in the trade war [7][8] Group 3 - China is accelerating its overseas economic engagements, having recently reached agreements with the European Parliament and ASEAN to enhance trade cooperation and supply chain connectivity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that the federal government's cash reserves and means to control debt within the legal limit may run out by August, urging Congress to act before the mid-July recess to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [1][2][4] Group 1: Debt Ceiling and Government Operations - The U.S. reached its current debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion in early January and has been using "extraordinary measures" to avoid default [1][2] - Most extraordinary measures have been exhausted as of April 30, with remaining funds only sufficient to support operations until June or July [3][4] - If Congress does not act to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury may face a situation where it cannot meet all government obligations by August [2][3] Group 2: Political Challenges - Republican lawmakers are attempting to pass legislation to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, but political difficulties are anticipated in voting on the debt ceiling [1][6] - The Trump administration is looking to combine the debt ceiling increase with fiscal spending bills, aiming to raise the limit to $41 trillion [6] - Historical conflicts between Democrats and Republicans over the debt ceiling have made negotiations increasingly complex, with divisions also present within the Republican party [6] Group 3: Credit Rating and Economic Implications - The inability to raise the debt ceiling could severely damage the U.S. financial system and weaken its global leadership [4] - Credit rating agencies have previously downgraded U.S. sovereign credit ratings due to high debt levels, and further downgrades could occur if the debt ceiling is not addressed [4][5] - A potential default could lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. government and a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset, impacting the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [5]

Group 1: Market Strategy and Risks - The importance of patience and proactive capabilities for investors is emphasized, highlighting that risk assessment is crucial for determining investment strategies [1][2] - The discussion begins with a focus on risks, particularly the implications of tariffs and their underlying motivations, rather than just the numerical values associated with them [3][4] - The concept of "reciprocity" in tariffs is introduced, suggesting that the ultimate goal is to promote re-industrialization in the U.S. economy [4][6] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - The strategy of re-industrialization aims to stabilize the U.S. GDP by shifting production back to the U.S. and leveraging tariffs to attract foreign manufacturing [4][6] - The potential for the U.S. to export goods to emerging markets with zero tariffs is discussed, indicating a dual approach of attracting high-end industries while targeting new markets for U.S. products [6][8] Group 3: China and Global Trade Dynamics - The focus shifts to China, analyzing its trade relationships and the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on both economies [8][9] - China's GDP structure is highlighted, with a significant portion driven by domestic demand, suggesting resilience despite trade challenges [9][10] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies should consider the increasing focus on domestic consumption in China, with potential benefits for related stocks and bonds [9][10] - The discussion includes the potential for investment in high-tech industries and infrastructure, such as space technology and 6G, as part of a broader investment strategy [10][11] Group 5: U.S. Debt and Currency Concerns - The narrative addresses concerns about U.S. debt and the role of the Federal Reserve in influencing bond yields, clarifying that the primary driver of rising yields is the Fed's own actions rather than foreign selling [11][12] - The stability of the U.S. dollar is defended, with data showing its continued dominance in global trade and reserves, countering fears of its decline [12][13] Group 6: Stock Market Analysis - The stock market's performance is analyzed, noting that while there are risks, not all sectors are performing poorly, and certain sectors have shown resilience [15][16] - The conclusion suggests that fears surrounding the stock and bond markets may be exaggerated, with gold emerging as a strong alternative investment [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's debt management strategies, highlighting the risks associated with potential U.S. debt defaults and the impact on market confidence [1][17]. Group 1: Economic Strategies and Implications - Trump's focus has been on "debt management" since taking office, aiming to reduce fiscal deficits while navigating complex reforms in healthcare, social security, and military spending [3]. - A weak dollar, weak U.S. stock market, and a weak economy can serve political purposes, benefiting certain voter demographics while allowing for necessary economic adjustments [5][6]. - Short-term economic downturns and stock market corrections are viewed as necessary for fiscal reform and debt reduction, with the potential for recovery before the midterm elections [9]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Situation - As of April 25, the total U.S. debt stood at $36.2 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $881 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for 13% of total government spending [12][14]. - High interest rates have suppressed financing demand and contributed to liquidity issues in the banking sector, exemplified by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank [10]. - Trump's administration faces significant challenges in managing debt levels and ensuring fiscal sustainability, with spending cuts progressing slower than planned [14]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - The market reacted negatively to Trump's tariff announcements, with the S&P 500 index dropping 10% and 10-year Treasury yields rising significantly [23]. - Concerns about the credibility of U.S. debt have emerged, particularly in light of Trump's threats to replace the Federal Reserve Chair, which could undermine the independence of the central bank [20][21]. - The potential for a "credit crisis" looms if market confidence in U.S. debt continues to erode, as the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as "risk-free" is challenged [19]. Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics of U.S. Debt - Recent rumors about a $6 trillion debt maturity in June were clarified, indicating that most of this debt is short-term and will be rolled over, thus not posing an immediate threat [24][26]. - The demand for U.S. debt remains relatively stable, with domestic institutions absorbing much of the issuance despite some reductions in holdings by traditional foreign investors [26][28]. - Alternatives to U.S. debt, such as gold and other high-rated government bonds, are limited in scale and yield, maintaining investor reliance on U.S. Treasuries in the short term [30][28].

Core Viewpoint - The current global monetary system, characterized by high levels of debt in debtor nations like the U.S. and significant holdings of debt assets by creditor nations, is unsustainable and will require transformation [5][6]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - As of April 2025, the total U.S. federal debt is projected to be approximately $36 trillion, accounting for about 35% of global GDP, with a per capita debt exceeding $100,000 [1]. - The total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds maturing in the second quarter of 2025 is around $6.5 trillion [1]. Group 2: Consequences of U.S. Debt Default - A potential default on U.S. debt could lead to a collapse of the dollar's credit, prompting countries to accelerate de-dollarization and shift towards assets like gold and the yuan, resulting in a significant drop in the dollar's exchange rate and increased inflationary pressures in the U.S. [3]. - Global financial markets would experience turmoil, with U.S. Treasury yields surging (e.g., 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%), leading to higher borrowing costs and potential liquidity crises [3]. - The U.S. economy could enter a recession, with government shutdowns, interruptions in social security payments, and rising social tensions, potentially resulting in widespread layoffs and consumption decline [3]. Group 3: Global Monetary Order - The current monetary order is collapsing due to unsustainable debt levels, with a critical point reached where debtor nations continue to accumulate debt while creditor nations hold excessive debt assets [5][6]. - In a de-globalized world, major countries are losing mutual trust, leading to significant trade and capital imbalances [5]. Group 4: U.S. Tariff Wars - The structural contradictions of dollar hegemony, such as trade deficits and the outflow of manufacturing, have driven the U.S. to engage in tariff wars, with the aim of reducing trade deficits through measures like "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. - Domestic economic and political pressures, including the desire for manufacturing to return to the U.S. and the need for increased government revenue through tariffs, are also motivating factors behind the tariff wars [8]. - The conflict between financial capital and industrial capital is highlighted, with financial interests often driving manufacturing out of the U.S., complicating the effectiveness of tariff policies [9]. Group 5: Measures to Address U.S. Debt Issues - The Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates to reduce new debt costs, although this is constrained by inflationary pressures [11]. - The U.S. may face a technical default risk in August-September 2025 if political deadlock over the debt ceiling persists, prompting central banks to increase gold holdings and diversify currency reserves [11]. - The U.S. debt situation is described as entering a "vicious cycle," relying on short-term borrowing while long-term solutions require fiscal reform [12].