1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is currently in a situation where demand is weak during the off - season, and downstream negative feedback is continuously transmitted to the upstream market, suppressing the prices of polyester products [6]. - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, PX supply is still tight in the short term and is expected to oscillate with the cost side; PTA supply is expected to increase, and its processing fee is significantly compressed; MEG has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September; short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported; and bottle - chip processing fees are also relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies | Product | Logic Analysis | Trading Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | PX&PTA | PX supply is still tight, with the Vietnamese NSRP 700,000 - ton PX device gradually resuming and the Thai THAI OIL 530,000 - ton PX device shut down for maintenance. PTA supply is expected to increase with device restarts and new installations. Downstream polyester and terminal operations are declining. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA; Option: Wait and see [4] | | MEG | Domestic and foreign devices are restarting, and the port inventory is currently low but has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September. The downstream load is decreasing, but there is short - term market support due to the rebound in coal prices. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PF | Short - fiber processing differentials are continuously widening, production and sales are average, and there are still production reduction plans in July. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PR | Bottle - chip processing fees are strengthening, and production reduction measures are gradually being implemented. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Polyester Load and Terminal Operations**: As of Friday, the polyester load was 88.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing and weaving operations decreased by 7% and 4% respectively, and the dyeing operation remained at 67%. The fabric orders were weak, and terminal production reduction was accelerating [6]. - **Product - Specific Situations**: - **PX**: Domestic PX load remained basically stable, with a slight increase to 81.3% as of Friday. Overseas load decreased slightly. Long - process device profits narrowed, and short - process device profits fluctuated slightly [16]. - **PTA**: Social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and the September - January spread weakened significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and processing differentials have weakened to the lowest point of the year [18][20]. - **MEG**: Port inventory rebounded, supply increased, the basis weakened, and the September - January spread strengthened. Domestic and foreign device loads increased, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September [22][25]. - **Polyester Products**: Long - filament inventory accumulated, short - fiber profits expanded but downstream operations declined, and bottle - chip processing fees strengthened with production reduction measures being implemented [8][10][12]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **PX**: - **Price**: The report presents the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and Brent crude oil, etc. [34]. - **Spread and Profit**: It includes various spreads such as PX - Brent, PX - naphtha, and PX - MX, as well as theoretical profits [36][38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic and overseas PX loads and the relationship between PX and PTA loads are shown [63][64]. - **PTA**: - **Profit**: It includes profits such as PTA's profit from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [74][75]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA and polyester loads are presented [77]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts are included [79]. - **MEG**: - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot, coal, methanol, and ethylene [81]. - **Spread**: It includes various spreads such as domestic and foreign spreads, regional spreads, and EO - 1.4EG spread [83]. - **Profit**: It includes profits from oil - based, MTO, ethylene monomer, and coal - based production of ethylene glycol [94][96]. - **Polyester**: - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of long - filaments, short - fiber profit, polyester weighted profit, bottle - chip processing profit, and slice profit [99]. - **Supply**: It shows the loads of polyester, bottle - chips, long - filaments, and short - fibers, as well as inventory days [101][102]. - **Demand**: It includes the loads and inventories of pure - polyester yarn, polyester - cotton yarn, and fabric, as well as export data and domestic consumption data [105][108][109].

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | PX社会库存目前偏低，供应端偏紧，本周中长流程制利润走缩，亚洲 PX 开工率回落，三季度海外日本Eneos条 | | | | 35万6月下意外停车，预计一个月，韩国Hanwha，泰国石油也有检修计划， 下游PTA三房巷320万吨装置预计8月 | | | | 投产，新凤鸣300万吨装置投产在10月，直接拉动PX需求，OPEC在8月考虑增产55万桶/日，PX预计短期跟随成 | 单边：短期震荡整理 | | PX&P | 本端。 | 套利：观望 | | TA | 近期PTA基差大幅下滑，周内山东威联化学250万吨装置检修，逸盛新材料360万吨装置负荷恢复，逸盛海南200万 | 期权：观望 | | | 吨PTA装置因故降负至5成附近，恒力2 ...

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 PX&P TA 本周PX期货价格震荡偏强，PX浮动价&基差月差走强,PX利润扩大。本周镇海炼化、金陵石化降负，盛虹炼化小幅 提负，PX开工率变动不大。7月初，威廉化学200万吨/年、天津石化39万吨有检修计划，福佳大化70万PX检修推 迟到9月，中金石化6月中旬计划外降负至8成运行，原计划6月中旬重启的沙特Petro Rabigh134万吨PX装置推迟 到7月中下旬重启，伊朗石化142万吨PX装置因战争因素停车，韩国GS一套40万吨PX装置目前正在重启，亚洲PX 开工率近期回落，PX流通货源偏紧。 PTA本周供减需增，社会库存下降，基差月差走强，加工费压缩。供应方面，逸盛新材料一套360万吨PTA上周末 降负，恒力一套220万吨PTA停车，嘉兴石化150万吨PTA重启，PTA开工率下降，下游聚酯开工回升，聚酯工厂库 存下降，聚酯利润继续压缩。PTA流通现货依旧偏紧，成本端油价和PX维持偏强格局，PT ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of PX both increased, with the floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX weakening. The PXN spread also weakened due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units. The supply of downstream PTA increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down. The basis was strong, the monthly spread weakened, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. In June, with the significant increase in PX operating rate and the restart of most previously maintained PTA units, along with the planned commissioning of a new 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit of Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3, PX will still maintain a tight balance under the pattern of increased supply and demand. The polyester downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with poor efficiency of polyester factories, a decline in operation, and a slowdown in the expected de - stocking rate of PTA in June [7]. - Next week, the expected import arrival volume of ethylene glycol is about 137,000 tons. With weak sales of downstream polyester and limited terminal pick - up at the wharf, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread of ethylene glycol will weaken. In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. The downstream polyester has poor efficiency, rising inventory, and a decline in operation. In June, ethylene glycol will show a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - This week, the operation of short - fiber decreased, inventory increased, the operation of terminal weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined, short - fiber production enterprises suffered losses, and the expectation of production reduction was strong. The downstream yarn mills also suffered losses, and the inventory of grey fabrics increased, so the short - fiber processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - This week, the operation of bottle - chip decreased. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is still in the peak season, after the previous centralized procurement by bottle - chip downstream, the bottle - chip downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory in the short term, and there were still no tenders from large beverage manufacturers this week. Currently, the overall supply of bottle - chip is abundant, the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is still under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX & PTA** - Logic analysis: This week, PX supply and demand both increased, with weakened floating price, basis, and monthly spread, and a weakened PXN spread. PTA supply increased while demand decreased, and the de - stocking of social inventory slowed down. In June, PX will maintain a tight balance, and the PTA de - stocking rate is expected to slow down [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - long PX and short PTA; Option - double - selling options [7]. - **MEG** - Logic analysis: Next week, the expected import arrival volume will increase, port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. In June, there will be a pattern of both supply and demand decline [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. - **PF** - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, inventory increased, and the processing fee may be under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - double - selling options [7]. - **PR** - Logic analysis: This week, operation decreased, and the processing fee is still under pressure [7]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; Arbitrage - wait - and - see; Option - sell call options [7]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - The operation of polyester continued to decline this week, inventory increased, and profits remained at a low level. Except for the relatively good profits of filament, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and chip are all in a loss state [10]. - The operation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing declined [14]. - After the festival, the operation of filament decreased, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Affected by the production reduction of mainstream industry suppliers, the price of filament factories was firm, and the processing fee was stable [16][18]. - The market atmosphere of bottle - chip was weak, and losses intensified. The operation of bottle - chip decreased this week. Although the downstream soft - drink industry is in the peak season, the downstream is still mainly consuming raw material inventory, and there were no tenders from large beverage manufacturers. The overall supply is abundant, and the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak, so the processing fee is still under pressure [19][26]. - Short - fiber is in a loss state, and the expectation of production reduction is strong. The operation of short - fiber decreased this week, with increased inventory, and both short - fiber production enterprises and downstream yarn mills suffered losses [27]. 2.2 PX - The floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX decreased compared with the previous period [29]. - The gasoline inventory increased, and the cracking spread remained weak [31]. - Due to the increase in PX unit operation and the restart of maintenance units, the PXN spread weakened. There are multiple PX unit maintenance and operation adjustment plans in China and Asia (excluding China) [33][35][36]. 2.3 PTA - The de - stocking of PTA social inventory slowed down, the basis was strong, and the monthly spread weakened. As of June 6, the basis of the main port in May was at 09 + 225 for transactions, and the 09 - 01 contract monthly spread was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the last trading day before the festival [37]. - The supply of PTA increased while demand decreased, and the processing fee was strong first and then weak. This week, the operation rate of PTA increased by 3% week - on - week, and in June, the monthly average operation rate is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month. The output in June is expected to increase by about 1 million tons [39][41]. - The spread between domestic and foreign markets of PTA recovered, and the export expectation decreased. From January to April, the cumulative export of PTA was 1.3364 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. After the commissioning of the new Turkish SASA unit, the export volume of PTA to Turkey decreased significantly. In May, the spread between domestic and foreign markets narrowed, the export profit declined, and the export expectation decreased [42][44]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol - The expected import arrival volume will increase, the port inventory is expected to rise, and the basis and monthly spread will weaken. As of June 6, the spot basis of ethylene glycol was at a low - level transaction of a premium of 115 - 118 yuan/ton to the 09 contract; the 9 - 1 contract monthly spread was 21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week weakening of 49 yuan/ton [45]. - In June, the maintenance volume of ethylene glycol remains high, and the import is expected to increase slightly. There are multiple domestic and foreign ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans [48][52]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, Brent crude oil, etc. [56]. - **Inter - variety spread & profit**: It includes the spreads and profits between PX and other varieties such as naphtha, BLENT, and MX [58][59][60]. - **Disproportionation and oil - blending spread & profit**: It involves the spreads and profits of Asian toluene disproportionation and oil - blending, and the spread between xylene oil - blending and PX production [69][72][76]. - **Inter - regional spread & profit**: It shows the spreads and profits between PX in different regions such as the United States and South Korea [80]. - **Supply and demand**: It presents the operating rates of Chinese and Asian PX, the operating rate of Chinese PTA, and the relationship between PX and PTA prices and processing fees [85]. 3.2 PTA - **Profit**: It includes the spot profits of PTA from crude oil, naphtha, and the theoretical profit of PTA - PX [93][94][95]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the operating rates of PTA and polyester [96][97]. - **Inventory**: It includes PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts [98][99]. 3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot in East China, coal prices in Inner Mongolia, methanol ex - tank prices in Jiangsu, and Northeast Asian ethylene prices [100]. - **Spread**: It includes the spreads between domestic and foreign markets of ethylene glycol, the spread between East and South China, and the spreads between different regions such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [102][103][108]. - **Profit**: It includes the oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and coal - based profit of ethylene glycol [112][113][115]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the operating rate of ethylene glycol, the operating rate of polyester, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol [117][118]. 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It includes the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, weighted profit of polyester, bottle - chip processing profit, and chip profit [122][123]. - **Supply**: It shows the operating rates of polyester, filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, as well as the inventory days of filament and short - fiber [124][125][126]. - **Demand**: It includes the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn, the inventory of pure - polyester yarn finished products and raw materials, the operating rate of polyester - cotton yarn factories, the inventory of Chinese yarn, the operating rate of Chinese grey fabric, the inventory of Chinese grey fabric, and the export data and consumption data of textiles and clothing [128][129][132].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip futures have shown upward trends recently. The main reasons include increased gasoline demand leading to higher naphtha demand, multiple device overhauls in the industry, improved macro - atmosphere due to the mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, and changes in supply - demand relationships in different segments of the polyester industry chain. In the short term, these products are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: From May 9th to May 12th, 2025, most futures contracts in the polyester industry chain showed price increases. For example, the 2506 contract of PX rose from 6626 to 6806, with an increase of 180 and a growth rate of 2.72%. The 2506 contract of PTA increased from 4684 to 4836, with an increase of 152 and a growth rate of 3.25% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices also generally increased. For instance, the PTA spot price rose from 4301 to 4400, with a growth rate of 2.30%. The PF (1.4D) spot price increased from 6440 to 6525, with a growth rate of 1.32% [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of some products changed significantly. The PTA09 main - port basis increased from 149 to 175, with a growth rate of 17.45%. The MEG09 spot basis rose from 78 to 128, with a growth rate of 64.10% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were also changes in monthly spreads. The TA9 - 1 monthly spread decreased from 72 to 71, with a decline rate of 5.56%, while the EG9 - 1 monthly spread increased from 3 to 23, with a growth rate of 666.67% [5]. - **Industrial Chain Price Differences and Profits**: Some price differences and profits in the industrial chain changed. The PTA - PX (09 futures contract) price difference increased from 343 to 352, with a growth rate of 2.56%. The PF06 contract processing fee increased from 881 to 1220, with a growth rate of 38.49% [5]. 3.2 Product Analysis - **PX**: The PX futures price continued to rise. Due to increased gasoline demand, the demand for naphtha for gasoline blending increased. Multiple PX device overhauls were planned, and the market atmosphere improved. The PX - naphtha price difference recovered, and PX valuation was upward - repaired. In the short term, PX is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [6]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures price continued to rise, and the basis strengthened. Multiple PTA device overhauls in May led to a significant decline in the operating rate and an upward repair of processing fees. After the May - Day holiday, the polyester operating rate continued to increase, expanding the PTA supply - demand gap. In the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [7]. - **MEG**: The MEG futures price increased. The port inventory decreased, and the domestic operating rate recovered due to the restart of multiple synthetic - gas - based MEG overhaul devices. The supply increased overall, and the inventory pressure was not large. The polyester operating rate remained high, and the supply - demand relationship was in a tight - balance pattern. In the short term, MEG is expected to fluctuate with a strong bias [8][9]. - **Short - fiber**: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and short - fiber factory quotes increased. Downstream stocking sentiment improved, and the average sales rate reached 132%. After the holiday, both supply and demand increased, and the inventory changed little. Short - fiber prices followed the trend of raw materials [10]. - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of polyester raw material futures continued to strengthen, and the bottle - chip futures price increased. A bottle - chip device restarted, and the supply was stable. Although the downstream market atmosphere weakened, the export efficiency was good, and the overall demand was still supported. The current processing fee valuation was low, and the price followed the trend of raw materials [11].