Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and potential threats to rubber supply from the military conflict in Thailand and Cambodia [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the sharp rise in domestic coal futures offsets the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend as the negative impact of production increase fades, the planned production increase is realized, and it is the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises increased. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's auto production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average开工率 was 72.09%, with significant week - on - week and month - on - month declines. The production, inventories, and the开工 rates of related downstream products showed various changes [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased, and the commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly. The refinery operating rate was 93.9%. The non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, while those of Brent crude oil increased [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,150 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 15,245 yuan/ton | +260 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,480 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,480 yuan/ton | +69 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | - 39 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 478.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 508.9 yuan/barrel | +5.2 yuan/barrel | - 30.3 yuan/barrel | - 5.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire and semi - steel tire opening rate trends [17][21][26]. - **Methanol**: Charts cover methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin opening rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][33][39]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes [42][44][52].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the futures market conditions of rubber, methanol, and crude oil on July 23, 2025, including market trends, industrial dynamics, and spot prices [4][6][7]. Core Views - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Supported by positive factors, it is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. Due to the divergence between long and short positions, it is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The 2508 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. With the digestion of production - increase negatives and the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable pattern [7]. Industrial Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous period. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 1.39%, and that in general trade decreased by 0.13%. The entry and exit rates of warehouses decreased [9]. - As of July 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million for the first time, with new energy vehicle production and sales growing significantly [9][10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and coal (methanol) to olefins had different changes. The futures profit of methanol to olefins was - 53 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 66 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 567,600 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 67,900 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,500 tons [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The US daily crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels [14]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased significantly week - on - week, the Cushing crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased slightly. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9% [14]. - As of July 15, 2025, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,005 yuan/ton | -55 yuan/ton | -35 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,467 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | 2,411 yuan/ton | -46 yuan/ton | 56 yuan/ton | +46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.5 yuan/barrel | -0.3 yuan/barrel | 503.7 yuan/barrel | -0.6 yuan/barrel | -24.2 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to the enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, despite the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the steadily rising domestic coal futures prices compete with the weak methanol supply - demand structure [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the negative impact of production increases is digested, and the further expansion of production by oil - producing countries is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.36%, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79% as of July 10, a 1.66 - percentage - point increase, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [8][9]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons. The inventories in East and South China ports increased significantly week - on - week [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 7. As of the week of July 4, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels week - on - week. The WTI crude oil futures market net long positions decreased significantly week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures market net long positions increased significantly [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 14,360 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -10 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,407 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 11 yuan/ton | -26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 482.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 513.0 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | -30.3 yuan/barrel | -8.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: There is a chart of rubber basis [16]. - **Methanol**: Charts related to methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting are mentioned [29][31][33]. - **Crude Oil**: Charts related to crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change are mentioned [41][43][49].

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2508 closed down by 1.44%, settling at 512.80 RMB per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold futures market saw a slight increase, with night trading up by 0.07% [1] - Shanghai silver futures experienced a more significant rise, increasing by 1.45% during night trading [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 2.86% at 14,405 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount narrowed to 870 yuan/ton. Supported by positive factors such as enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 1.40% at 2,398 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread discount widened to 65 yuan/ton. Benefiting from the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the contract is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of decreasing volume and increasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price closed up 0.33% at 512.3 yuan/barrel. With the Middle East geopolitical risks and the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The semi - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased by 6.27 percentage points week - on - week, and the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. In June 2025, the automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 85.20%. The weekly production was 1.9871 million tons. The inventories in East and South China ports were 499,700 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 432. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 418.95 million barrels. The WTI non - commercial net long positions increased slightly, while the Brent crude oil futures fund net long positions decreased significantly [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,405 yuan/ton | +360 yuan/ton | - 455 yuan/ton | - 360 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,412 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,398 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 14 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 491.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 511.2 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.8 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis,上期所 rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - **Crude Oil**: Charts include crude oil basis,上期所 crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2508 closed up by 0.85%, reaching 520.1 RMB per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold futures also saw a night session increase of 0.19% [1] - Conversely, the Shanghai silver futures experienced a decline of 0.33% during the night session [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly falling on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly rising on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the future [7]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons or 0.05%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 2.36%, while that in general trade increased by 0.40% [9]. - As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 15.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a slight week - on - week decline of 0.17 percentage points and a slight year - on - year decline of 0.67 percentage points [9]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [9]. - In June 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points. The heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 85.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.81%, a month - on - month increase of 1.87%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 13.63%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.9871 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 70,600 tons [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 4.78%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The acetic acid operating rate was 97.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTBE operating rate was 50.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20% [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78.39%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points. The domestic methanol to olefin futures profit was - 138 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 62 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 499,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,400 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 352,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 47. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.433 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,000 barrels per day [14]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418.95 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.845 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels week - on - week [15]. - As of July 1, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 234,693 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 1,724 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 166,510 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 23,997 contracts [16]. Group 3: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,950 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,045 yuan/ton | + 60 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,440 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | 68 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 511.6 yuan/barrel | + 5.6 yuan/barrel | - 27.8 yuan/barrel | - 5.5 yuan/barrel | [17] Group 4: Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trend and Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2509 contract are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a slight upward bias respectively, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.03% at 507 yuan/barrel on the overnight session of Monday, and the 2508 contract is expected to maintain an oscillation with a slight upward bias on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has re - emerged due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, leading to a rebound in geopolitical premium and an increase in the confidence of oil market bulls after a previous significant decline [5]. - The demand factor of crude oil has come into play with the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. - Market sentiment has been repaired as Trump extended the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, and the bullish atmosphere has supported the sharp rebound of domestic and international crude oil futures prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. - Due to the Israeli air strikes on Lebanese Hezbollah, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has emerged again. After a sharp decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play. Against the backdrop of the divergence between bulls and bears, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly down 0.70% to 497.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the closing price of the day's daytime session to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and weak, an increase of 0 - 1% is oscillatory and strong, and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - The concepts of oscillatory and strong/weak only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is weak operation [5]. - The core logic is the combination of geopolitical risks, the rebound of bullish confidence, and the peak oil - using season, leading to the oscillatory and weak trend of the crude oil futures contract [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market focused on Iran's retaliatory actions, which increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, Trump's statements and Iran's weak retaliatory actions and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down the geopolitical risks and alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. Still, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation needs attention [1] - Fundamentally, crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, US crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level, and OPEC+ production increases have fallen short of expectations, leading to a marginal improvement in crude oil supply - demand. But the OPEC+ meeting is about to discuss accelerating production increases, and US crude oil and gasoline inventories have unexpectedly increased. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil put options [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Lightly buy crude oil put options. With the cooling of Middle East geopolitical risks, the OPEC+ meeting approaching to discuss accelerating production increases, and the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, cautious operation is advised [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.04% to 503.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 502.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 509.2 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1408 to 25655 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowered the 2026 US crude oil production forecast by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raised the 2025 global oil inventory increase from 4,000 barrels per day to 8,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts by 20,000 barrels per day to 720,000 and 740,000 barrels per day respectively [3] - On the evening of July 2, US EIA data showed that for the week ending June 27, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.809 million barrels), 9.30% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 4.188 million barrels (expected to decrease by 236,000 barrels); refined oil inventories decreased by 1.71 million barrels (expected to decrease by 960,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 1.493 million barrels [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's April crude oil production was raised by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in Saudi production. US crude oil production in the week ending June 27 decreased by 200 barrels per day to 13.433 million barrels per day, 198,000 barrels per day lower than the record high in early December last year [4] - US crude oil product four - week average supply increased to 20.288 million barrels per day, but decreased by 2.93% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 10.82% to 8.64 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.199 million barrels per day, a 0.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand increased by 6.56% to 4.043 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.74 million barrels per day, a 0.55% increase compared to the same period last year. The large decrease in gasoline demand led to a 0.13% decrease in US crude oil product single - week supply [4]