2025年9月23日 | | | | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌幅 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 张跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 9月22日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(11月) | -0.2% | POY150/48价格 | 6600 | -0.8% | 66.57 | -0.11 | 6655 | -25 | 66.68 | 美元/桶 | -0.1% | WTI原油(10月) | -0.8% | -0.04 | FDY150/96价格 | -55 | 6845 | 62.68 | 6790 | 62.64 | | | 597 | -0.7% | CFR日本石脑油 | -55 | -1 | -0.2% | DTY150/48价格 | 78 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: Short - term expected to be volatile and weak. PX11 to be treated as oscillating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Short - term to oscillate between 4600 - 4800; TA1 - 5 to be rolled in reverse arbitrage. Mid - term supply - demand is weak [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: 9 - month outlook is positive, but Q4 is expected to enter a stockpiling phase. EG to be observed unilaterally; EG1 - 5 for reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Low - level support exists, but rebound drive is weak. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; processing fees to oscillate between 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: PR to follow cost, with limited upside for processing fees. Unilateral strategy same as PTA; main - contract processing fees to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures are weakly operating. Supply is rising while demand lacks growth. Policy intervention on coal prices cannot reverse the surplus. Short - term, the futures are expected to be weak [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decline due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry is stable, but overall, it may continue to be weak in the short - term. Spot prices may stabilize [11]. - **PVC**: After a rebound, it is re - adjusting. Supply may decrease due to maintenance, and demand is slightly improving. Cost support is at the bottom. It can be short - sold at high levels [11]. Methanol Industry - Supply is at a high level, and inventory is relatively healthy. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Valuation is neutral. The market is wavering between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations. Follow - up focus on inventory inflection points [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. Short - term price is affected by geopolitics and macro factors. BZ2603 to follow styrene oscillations [60]. - **Styrene**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. Port inventory is declining, but still restricts price increases. EB10 to be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 - BZ11 to be widened at low levels [60]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating. The refined oil market provides support, but macro - economic concerns limit the upside. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Unilateral observation is recommended [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: PP has more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, with a weak basis. PE has more maintenance, a rising basis, and inventory reduction. Demand orders are poor. Focus on pre - holiday restocking [68]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) decreased by 0.8% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% to 6680 yuan/ton; DTY150/48 price remained unchanged at 7960 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased; PX - crude decreased by 1% to 397 dollars/ton [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4630 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 1% to 4712 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory decreased by 460,000 tons to 9.4 million tons; EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% to 4297 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices**: Urea 01 contract decreased by 0.65% to 1670 yuan/ton; methanol main - contract decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Shandong (small - particle) decreased by 0.61% to 1640 yuan/ton; FOB China: small - particle remained unchanged at 424 dollars/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82% to 195,600 tons; enterprise inventory increased by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons [8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.4% to 2500 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.7% to 5347 yuan/ton [11]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port increased by 1.3% to 395 dollars/ton; export profit increased by 120.2% to 5.8 yuan/ton [11]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 3% to 650 dollars/ton; export profit decreased by 77.2% to 13.5 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PVC total operating rate increased by 4.2% to 79.4%; alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5% to 82.8% [11]. Methanol Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2601 decreased by 1.26% to 2346 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia north - line spot decreased by 0.95% to 2090 yuan/ton [55]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%; methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% to 1.558 million tons [55]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%; downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08% [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5% to 738 dollars/ton; pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 4.5% to 130 dollars/ton [60]. - **Styrene - related Prices**: Styrene East China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7100 yuan/ton; EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% to 7062 yuan/ton [60]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9% to 134,000 tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% to 159,000 tons [60]. - **Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 79.096%; domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 5.9% to 75% [60]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75% to 67.44 dollars/barrel; SC decreased by 1.27% to 490 yuan/barrel [63]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13% to 201.4 cents/gallon; ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% to 702.5 dollars/ton [63]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: European gasoline decreased by 2.44% to 19.03 dollars/barrel; US diesel decreased by 2.48% to 34.45 dollars/barrel [63]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: L2601 decreased by 0.79% to 7188 yuan/ton; PP2601 decreased by 0.8% to 6926 yuan/ton [68]. - **Spot Prices**: East China PP raffia decreased by 0.59% to 6760 yuan/ton; North China LDPE film decreased by 0.56% to 7120 yuan/ton [68]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 451,000 tons; PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 582,000 tons [68]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%; PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9% [68].

甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月15日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 9月12日 | 9月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2379 | 2387 | -8 | -0.34% | | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2230 | 2213 | 17 | 0.77% | | | MA91价差 | -149 | -174 | 25 | -14.37% | | | 太仓基差 | 48 | 70 | -22 | -31.65% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2120 | 2120 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/呼 | | 河南浩阳现货 | 2253 | 2268 | -15 | -0.66% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2278 | 2283 | -5 | -0.22% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 158 | 163 | -5 | -3.08% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | ટર | 15 | 10 | 66.67% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX prices remained sluggish due to insufficient cost support, with multiple domestic and international PX plants restarting and overall supply on the rise. PTA prices fluctuated at a low level as there were no unexpected news, and the impact of planned PTA plant maintenance on the market had been overdrawn. Downstream polyester sales increased last weekend, relieving inventory pressure, and some polyester factories replenished stocks during the week, following the pulse law [9]. - **Market Forecast**: Geopolitical conflicts will amplify market uncertainties, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. PX is expected to remain volatile within the range of 6,650 - 6,850 yuan/ton, and PTA within 4,650 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Situation - **PX Futures**: Without unexpected news, prices continued to be sluggish. The closing price of the PX main contract on August 15 was 6,688 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of -0.56%. The settlement price on August 15 was 6,682 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of -0.98%. The average basis of the main contract from August 11 - 15 was -67 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,659.6 yuan/ton, down 81.8 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -1.21% [13][15][16]. - **PTA Futures**: There were no unexpected changes, and prices were at a low level. The closing price of the PTA main contract on August 15 was 4,716 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of 0.68%. The settlement price on August 15 was 4,708 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of 0.42%. The average basis of the main contract from August 11 - 15 was -3.50 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 594.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.4 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,681.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [18][20][23]. 2. Device Operation Status - **PX Devices**: Multiple domestic and international PX plants restarted, and the supply gradually recovered. The domestic operating rate of PX from August 11 - 15 was 84.97%, up from 82.01% from August 4 - 8 [32]. - **PTA Devices**: Some PTA plants carried out planned maintenance, and the overall supply was sufficient. The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.91%. For example, Ningbo Taihua's 120 - ton PTA plant restarted on August 7 after maintenance, and Hainan Yisheng's 200 - ton plant started maintenance on August 1 and was expected to last until November 1 [35][36]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil prices were affected by geopolitical factors and market supply - demand expectations, showing a weak trend. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on August 15 was 62.80 US dollars/barrel, down 1.08 US dollars/barrel from August 8. Brent crude oil's futures settlement price on August 15 was 65.85 US dollars/barrel, down 0.74 US dollars/barrel from August 8. Naphtha prices oscillated, and the economic situation remained stalemate. The weekly average price of PX spot was 831.08 US dollars/ton (CFR China Main Port), a change of -0.89% from the previous period [43][48][51]. - **Supply**: The processing margin of PX remained at a high level in the industrial chain, with the PXN weekly average at 262.05 yuan/ton, a change of -0.89% from the previous period. The PTA processing margin was in a loss state across the industry. As of August 15, the social inventory of PTA was 4.502 million tons, down 0.8 million tons from the previous week, and the change in the year - on - year growth rate was 0.26% [52][56][62]. - **Demand**: The prices of polyester products were affected by the decline in crude oil and PTA prices. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,735 yuan/ton, 7,940 yuan/ton, and 7,085 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -0.15%, -0.19%, and +0.93% from the previous period. The average weekly production and sales of polyester from August 11 - 15 were estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament decreased slightly, and the shipment speed of grey fabrics was generally slow, with the number of market inquiries decreasing compared to the previous period [67][75][81].