新年伊始，全球地缘政治格局突发剧变。 央视新闻报道称，当地时间1月3日凌晨， 美国对委内瑞拉境内发动空袭，美国总统特朗普随后证实，美方已成功实施大规模打击，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫 人已被抓获并带离该国。 特朗普通过社交媒体宣布，此次行动系与美国执法部门联合进行，马杜罗夫妇目前已被美方控制并乘飞机离开委内瑞拉。特朗普透露，更多细节将陆续公布， 并定于当地时间1月3日上午11点在海湖庄园举行新闻发布会。 环球网援引美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）最新消息称， 此次逮捕马杜罗的行动由美军三角洲特种部队执行。 环球网报道还称， 根据委内瑞拉民众的视频以及 相关报道证实，委首都加拉加斯一处军事营地3日发生爆炸事件，而 该军事营地内安葬委内瑞拉前总统查韦斯的遗体。 当天稍早时， 委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯传出爆炸声，随后响起防空警报。 有目击者称，多起爆炸发生在加拉加斯南部的军事设施附近，据称相关地区已断电。 还有消息称，加拉加斯上空有直升机盘旋，部分地区的电信服务中断。而在加拉加斯传出爆炸声后，委内瑞拉马拉开波一处军事基地和北部拉瓜伊拉州、米兰 达州的机场均传来爆炸声。 央视新闻报道称，随后， 委内瑞拉外交部发布公告表示，严 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has announced a maritime blockade against sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, aiming to cut off the country's energy lifeline, but experts believe Venezuela has the technical capabilities to withstand this pressure, making U.S. political calculations unlikely to succeed [1]. Group 1: Current Situation in Venezuela - Oil production and export activities in the western oil hub of Maracaibo are still proceeding normally despite U.S. actions [3]. - Venezuela's heavy crude oil production and processing heavily rely on imported diluents from countries like Iran, raising concerns that U.S. blockades could jeopardize oil production [3]. Group 2: Expert Opinions on Solutions - Oswaldo, Director of the International Energy and Environment Center at the Venezuelan Higher Management Institute, suggests that Venezuela could restore its diluent production capacity within three to four months by allowing domestic and foreign capital to enter for urgent infrastructure repairs [5]. - Another option is to purchase light or medium crude oil from nearby countries like Guyana or Brazil to mix with Venezuela's heavy crude [5]. Group 3: U.S. Political Motivations - Experts believe that the U.S. government's extreme pressure on Venezuela and threats to block oil exports are not only aimed at seizing Venezuela's oil resources but also serve domestic political needs [5]. - Current global oil prices are around $60 per barrel, which is precarious for U.S. shale oil companies, a major source of campaign funding for Trump [5]. - The U.S. is attempting to artificially create supply shortages to raise global oil prices, which would benefit U.S. shale oil producers [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "low-level oscillation" for soybean meal and "oscillation" for soybean No. 1 [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean futures closed lower on December 16, 2025, due to concerns about US export demand and the promising harvest of Brazilian soybeans, which led to some long - position liquidation. The slow pace of China's soybean purchases from the US disappointed traders. The weak energy market also cast a shadow on the soybean market, and the improved outlook for Brazilian soybean production increased the pressure on soybean futures [2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2601 closed at 4090 yuan/ton during the day session, down 52 yuan (-1.26%), and 4084 yuan/ton at night, down 18 yuan (-0.44%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2777 yuan/ton during the day session, up 15 yuan (+0.54%), and 2768 yuan/ton at night, up 5 yuan (+0.18%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1063.25 cents/bu, down 9.75 cents (-0.91%); CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 302.7 dollars/short ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.39%) [2] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3120 yuan/ton, with different basis levels compared to M2605; in East China, it was 3050 - 3120 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3100 - 3190 yuan/ton. The price changes compared to the previous day varied from region to region [2] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.35 million tons/day, and the inventory was 100.92 million tons/week, showing a decrease compared to the previous data [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures fell to a seven - week low. The reasons included concerns about US soybean export demand, the promising harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the slow pace of China's soybean purchases from the US. The weak energy market and the improved rainfall in Brazilian soybean - producing areas also contributed to the decline [2][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No. 1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the contrasting U.S. strategies towards China and India, highlighting a tactical delay in tariffs against China while imposing significant tariffs on India [1][26][50] - The U.S. has postponed the implementation of a 24% tariff on China for 90 days, from August 12 to November 10, to avoid increasing import costs and inflation during the upcoming holiday shopping season [3][5][12] - The U.S. recognizes the substantial economic ties with China, understanding that a full-blown conflict would primarily harm its own retail and manufacturing sectors [5][33] Group 2 - Senator Rubio's comments indicate that simultaneous punitive measures against China, Europe, and India could disrupt global energy markets and lead to rising oil prices, ultimately affecting U.S. domestic prices [7][31] - The market reacted positively to the news of the tariff postponement, with international oil prices falling, as investors feared a potential disruption in energy supply if China were included in secondary sanctions [10][28] - The U.S. decision to delay tariffs on China is seen as a pragmatic approach to stabilize energy markets and avoid exacerbating inflation, while keeping the option of tariffs available for future geopolitical negotiations [12][40] Group 3 - In stark contrast, the U.S. has increased tariffs on India from 25% to a total of 50%, directly targeting Indian exports due to its continued import of Russian oil [14][20] - The U.S. accuses India of helping Russia circumvent sanctions by purchasing oil at low prices, which raises questions about the timing of this aggressive stance [16][18] - India's strong response to the U.S. tariffs, labeling them as "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," indicates a potential strain in U.S.-India relations, which could lead to a reevaluation of India's foreign partnerships [20][22] Group 4 - The U.S. strategy appears to be a calculated move to apply pressure on India while maintaining a more lenient approach towards China, reflecting a differentiated strategy based on perceived risks and benefits [26][39] - The implications of the U.S. tariffs on India could lead to significant impacts on key export sectors such as textiles, jewelry, and machinery, potentially resulting in a loss of market share for Indian companies [20][24] - The U.S. aims to use India as a model to demonstrate the consequences of continued Russian oil purchases, but this could backfire by pushing India closer to Russia and China [37][39] Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of energy prices in U.S. decision-making, as rising oil prices could reignite inflation and negatively impact the domestic economy [28][31] - The U.S. is cautious about its actions towards Russia, balancing the need to maintain pressure while avoiding disruptions in the oil and gas markets [31][33] - The differing approaches towards China and India highlight the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, which must navigate both economic interests and geopolitical dynamics [51][53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of BRL 2.2 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 15% increase compared to the previous year [14][21] - Total investments for the first half of the year reached BRL 2.7 billion, with a full-year investment plan of BRL 2.8 billion [4][11] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 1.59, indicating a strong leverage position [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The distribution segment saw significant investments, with nine substations energized and over 2,600 kilometers of low and medium voltage networks constructed [12] - The energy market for semi-distribution experienced a drop of 3.3% due to the migration of industrial clients to the free market [21] - The company reported a gross effect of BRL 76 million related to price differences in energy submarkets [6][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant growth of around 20% in distributed generation compared to the previous year [22] - The trading sector faced a negative impact of BRL 76 million due to differences among energy submarkets [6][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a BRL 59 billion investment plan from 2019 to 2029, primarily targeting distribution to meet unmet load and support distributed generation [36][42] - Future investments will also aim to enhance resilience and automation in service delivery [38] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the second half of the year, anticipating positive scenarios regarding tariff adjustments and energy trading [6][7] - The company is closely monitoring regulatory changes and their potential impacts on profitability, especially concerning tariff reviews and pension fund expenses [50][55] Other Important Information - The company successfully participated in a GSF auction, securing extensions for three power plants, which is expected to add value [8][28] - The company is actively working on reducing operational expenses while improving service quality through technology and efficiency initiatives [51][54] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Comments on capital allocation and future focus for transmission auctions - Management highlighted that the bulk of investments will be in distribution to address unmet load and support distributed generation, with a focus on regulatory sectors [36][39] Question: Impact of recent Supreme Court ruling on PIS and ICMS - Management noted that the ruling allows for the deduction of taxes and honoraries, which is positive, but the final ruling's impact is still uncertain [44][45] Question: Rationale behind increasing short position for 2027-2028 - Management clarified that the increase in short position was due to market conditions and the need to close existing positions, with a focus on reducing exposure moving forward [47][48] Question: Regulatory changes affecting profitability and pension plan expenses - Management emphasized the importance of efficiency and technology in improving service quality and managing costs, with ongoing negotiations regarding pension funds [50][55]

Group 1 - The G7 draft calls for Israel and Iran to ease tensions to avoid jeopardizing regional stability [1] - G7 leaders are committed to maintaining market stability, including the energy market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the global economy, according to Tim Rocks, Chief Investment Officer at Evans and Partners [1] Oil Market Analysis - Although oil prices may experience a short-term spike, Iran accounts for only 3% of global oil production, which limits the potential impact on the market [1] - OPEC currently has sufficient spare capacity to mitigate risks associated with potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply [1] Investment Strategy - The company is looking for opportunities to increase positions amid market volatility [1] Risk Factors - A significant risk remains regarding the potential blockade or attack in the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran and is a critical transit route for approximately 20% of the world's crude oil [1] - Any disruption in this area could lead to major shocks in the energy market [1]