如果此时他贸然上调关税，一来会推高进口成本，二来还会刺激通胀回头冲击美国市场。 其实美方自己心里清楚，和中国的经贸规模太大，一旦全面冲突，代价只会先砸到自己零售和制造业头上。 加上美国年底要面临的消费旺季，圣诞购物季压在眼前，如果这时候关税全面抬升，零售商库存怎么办？ 消费者的钱包还能撑多久？ 有人说这只是战术延迟，没错，特朗普确实习惯把关税当筹码。 今天暂缓，不代表以后不用。 未来能不能再拿出来，完全取决于地缘局势和内部政治需要。 这就像在牌桌上留了一张底牌，不急着打出去，而是等对手动的时候再亮。 特朗普和鲁比奥先后表态，短时间内让全球市场和观察者，重新审视美方策略。 对华暂停关税，对印却加码，这种差异化手法背后，究竟藏着什么逻辑？ 美方宣布，把原定要生效的24%对等关税，再次往后延迟90天。 时间节点定得很清楚，从8月12日起，暂停期会一直延续到11月10日。 换句话说，美国暂时把这张牌收了回去。 为什么要这么做？ 再看鲁比奥的表态。 他在接受媒体采访时说得很直白：如果美国现在同时惩罚中国、欧洲和印度，结果就是全球能源市场被搅乱，油价迅速上行，最后反噬的就是美国本土的物 价。 这样的逻辑并不复杂，说明美方 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of BRL 2.2 billion for the quarter, reflecting a 15% increase compared to the previous year [14][21] - Total investments for the first half of the year reached BRL 2.7 billion, with a full-year investment plan of BRL 2.8 billion [4][11] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 1.59, indicating a strong leverage position [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The distribution segment saw significant investments, with nine substations energized and over 2,600 kilometers of low and medium voltage networks constructed [12] - The energy market for semi-distribution experienced a drop of 3.3% due to the migration of industrial clients to the free market [21] - The company reported a gross effect of BRL 76 million related to price differences in energy submarkets [6][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant growth of around 20% in distributed generation compared to the previous year [22] - The trading sector faced a negative impact of BRL 76 million due to differences among energy submarkets [6][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a BRL 59 billion investment plan from 2019 to 2029, primarily targeting distribution to meet unmet load and support distributed generation [36][42] - Future investments will also aim to enhance resilience and automation in service delivery [38] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the second half of the year, anticipating positive scenarios regarding tariff adjustments and energy trading [6][7] - The company is closely monitoring regulatory changes and their potential impacts on profitability, especially concerning tariff reviews and pension fund expenses [50][55] Other Important Information - The company successfully participated in a GSF auction, securing extensions for three power plants, which is expected to add value [8][28] - The company is actively working on reducing operational expenses while improving service quality through technology and efficiency initiatives [51][54] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Comments on capital allocation and future focus for transmission auctions - Management highlighted that the bulk of investments will be in distribution to address unmet load and support distributed generation, with a focus on regulatory sectors [36][39] Question: Impact of recent Supreme Court ruling on PIS and ICMS - Management noted that the ruling allows for the deduction of taxes and honoraries, which is positive, but the final ruling's impact is still uncertain [44][45] Question: Rationale behind increasing short position for 2027-2028 - Management clarified that the increase in short position was due to market conditions and the need to close existing positions, with a focus on reducing exposure moving forward [47][48] Question: Regulatory changes affecting profitability and pension plan expenses - Management emphasized the importance of efficiency and technology in improving service quality and managing costs, with ongoing negotiations regarding pension funds [50][55]

Group 1 - The G7 draft calls for Israel and Iran to ease tensions to avoid jeopardizing regional stability [1] - G7 leaders are committed to maintaining market stability, including the energy market [1]

分析师：中东紧张局势升级对全球经济影响有限 金十数据6月16日讯，Evans and Partners首席投资官Tim Rocks表示，中东局势升级不太可能对全球经济 产生持久影响。他指出，虽然油价可能出现短期飙升，但伊朗仅占全球石油产量的3%，且欧佩克目前 拥有充足的闲置产能，足以应对伊朗供应中断的风险。Rocks称，他将在市场波动中寻找增持仓位的机 会。不过，他警告称，主要风险在于霍尔木兹海峡可能遭遇封锁或袭击。该海峡由伊朗控制，全球约 20%的原油需经此运输，一旦受阻，可能对能源市场造成重大冲击。 ...