Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is facing significant pessimism as major companies lower profit guidance due to declining oil and gas prices, with an overall profit decline expected to exceed 26% year-on-year, marking the largest drop in recent years [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Major energy companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell, have revised their earnings forecasts downward, with the sector's overall earnings per share (EPS) expected to drop from $27.9 billion to $22.7 billion, a decrease of 18.8% [1] - The energy sector's profit expectations have shifted from a previous forecast of -8.4% in March to a current expectation of -25.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Subsector Performance - Among the five subsectors within the energy sector, four are projected to experience negative growth: Integrated Oil & Gas at -34%, Refining & Marketing at -31%, Exploration & Production at -20%, and Equipment & Services at -18% [1] - Only the Storage & Transportation subsector is expected to see positive growth, with profits anticipated to rise by 13% [1] Group 3: Revenue Declines - The energy sector is also experiencing the largest revenue declines among all 11 major sectors, with Refining & Marketing down 15%, Integrated Oil & Gas down 14%, and Equipment & Services down 7% [2] - Conversely, the Storage and Exploration & Production subsectors are expected to see revenue growth of 24% and 10%, respectively, indicating some resilience within certain segments [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Warnings - Several oil giants have issued profit warnings, with ExxonMobil forecasting a potential $1.5 billion drop in upstream earnings, Shell predicting a loss of $400-600 million, and Chevron lowering its Q2 EPS forecast from $2.53 to $1.76 [3] - The current energy market is characterized by a "double squeeze" on profits due to falling commodity prices and narrowing refining margins alongside rising operational costs [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance towards traditional oil and gas stocks, particularly those heavily reliant on upstream profits, while focusing on companies in storage, LNG, and those with clear renewable energy transition strategies [3] - Long-term monitoring of global macroeconomic policy changes, such as U.S. economic policies, OPEC+ meeting outcomes, and European energy regulations, is recommended [3]

金十数据7月10日讯，欧佩克扩大了对媒体的限制，禁止五大新闻机构——华尔街日报、纽约时报、英 国金融时报、路透社和彭博社——参加本周三至周四在维也纳举行的两年一度的石油工业会议，而其他 新闻机构获准参会。此前的会议也有类似的限制，引发了人们对全球能源市场透明度的担忧。欧佩克没 有对此次限制提供官方解释。然而，欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯此前曾为这种做法辩护，称"这是我们的房 子"，强调该组织对媒体访问的自由裁量权。 欧佩克禁止五家主要新闻机构参加石油会议 订阅欧佩克动态 +订阅 ...

Core Insights - Venezuela's crude oil and fuel exports reached approximately 844,000 barrels per day in June, marking an 8% increase from the previous month, with around 90% of these exports directed to China [1][4][6] - The loss of U.S. and European markets has been offset by significant shipments to China, indicating a shift in Venezuela's export strategy [1][3] - The increase in exports is largely attributed to the rise in sales of Boscan heavy crude oil, crucial for maintaining production levels at one of the country's largest oil fields [4][6] Export Dynamics - In June, 27 tankers departed from Venezuela, transporting an average of 844,000 barrels of crude oil and refined products daily, alongside 233,000 metric tons of by-products and petrochemicals [4][6] - The proportion of exports to China rose from 75% in May to 90% in June, highlighting a significant shift in trade patterns [4][6] - PDVSA has also been supplying approximately 8,000 barrels of crude oil daily to Cuba and has sent some methanol and petroleum coke to Europe and India [4][6] Market Adjustments - Following the termination of U.S. authorizations for companies like Chevron and Repsol to collaborate with PDVSA, the latter has significantly increased exports to Asia through intermediaries [3][6] - Prior to the authorization cancellation, PDVSA had filled its storage tanks with imported refined products, resulting in no imports of diluents in June [6] - The transformation in Venezuela's oil export landscape reflects the dynamic adjustments in the international energy market due to policy changes [6]

【重点关注】 ·美解除对华芯片设计软件出口管制 ·6月全国乘用车新能源市场零售107.1万辆比去年6月同期增长25% ·韩国总统：将尽快改善韩中关系 【国内要闻】 ·7月3日下午，商务部召开例行新闻发布会，有记者就有关美国总统拟带企业团访华的报道进行提问。 商务部新闻发言人何咏前：关于这个问题，我没有可以提供的信息，但是中方的态度是一贯的且明确 的。希望美方与中方相向而行，在两国元首的战略引领下，本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原 则，不断增进共识，减少误解，加强合作，共同推动中美经贸关系健康、稳定、可持续发展。 ·据美国彭博社今天（7月3日）援引西门子公司的消息证实，美国政府已解除对华芯片设计软件出口的 许可证要求。西门子公司称，美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子 和西门子，此前要求其在华业务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子公司表示已全面恢复中国客 户对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思科技与楷登电子称正在逐步重启相关服务。 ·乘联分会消息，6月1—30日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售107.1万辆，比去年6月同期增长25%，较上月 增长4%，全国乘用车新能源市场零售渗透率52. ...

特朗普的推文：一场国际能源市场的"即兴表演" 在如此动荡的背景下，特朗普的推文无疑是火上浇油。有人解读为其向伊朗释放外交信号，暗示可能在石油制裁上有所松动，以此换取伊朗在核问题上的让 步；也有人认为，他对中国的表态，是另一种意味深长的外交试探。 这则推文，成为了国际舆论的焦点，其影响力远超其字面意思。 国际能源市场，风云变幻，而特朗普总统的一条推文，却如同投入池塘的一颗石子，激起层层涟漪。6月24日，以色列和伊朗宣布停火，结束持续十余日的 激烈冲突，全球本应稍作喘息，然而，特朗普却在社交媒体上"安排"了中国与伊朗的石油贸易，将局势推向新的高度。这并非简单的"安排"，而是充满了其 标志性的自吹自擂，引来白宫紧急"灭火"，解释其本意并非鼓励中国购买伊朗石油，而是希望中国增加美国石油的进口量。 特朗普的推文，在国际社会掀起轩然大波。在此之前，美国高调宣称成功打击伊朗关键核设施，令市场紧张如同绷紧的琴弦；霍尔木兹海峡，这条中东石油 运输的咽喉要道，一旦被封锁，全球能源市场将面临毁灭性打击。布伦特原油期货价格应声上涨18%，创下近五个月新高。然而，伊朗石油部迅速辟谣，称 一、特朗普推文的国际影响：能源市场的震荡源头 关 ...

CIBC Private Wealth Group高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin：随着市场消化能源基础设施并非伊朗首选报 复目标的迹象，原油价格正在回落。 有迹象表明，美国可能事先收到了袭击的警告，这表明此番袭击更像是一种挽回面子的举动，而非真正 的升级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The security of the critical energy passage, the Strait of Hormuz, has become the primary concern for investors following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with potential threats of blockage by Iran being a focal point for market speculation [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Airstrikes and Market Reactions - On June 21, U.S. President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about the safety of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Following the airstrikes, the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has increased, although the probability remains below 50% [1]. - Analysts predict that Iran may resort to harassment of passing vessels, potentially increasing shipping times and costs, which is expected to drive up oil prices in the market [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Strait Blockage - If the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked, it could lead to unprecedented negative supply shocks in the energy market, with worst-case scenarios predicting oil prices could soar to $130 per barrel and a 0.8% drag on global GDP growth [2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, carrying approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products daily, accounting for over a quarter of global maritime oil trade [1]. Group 3: Iran's Strategic Considerations - There are doubts about Iran's capability to effectively block the Strait due to the significant military presence of the U.S. in the region, which could lead to a strong military response from the U.S. if Iran takes action [3]. - Iran's economy heavily relies on the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports, making any disruption a potentially "suicidal" move for the country, as it could provoke important trade partners and worsen its domestic economic situation [4]. - Analysts suggest that blocking the Strait may be viewed by Iran as a last resort, given its critical importance to the country's fragile economy [4].

利元亨2024年年报显示，公司全年实现营业收入24.82亿元，同比减少50.30%；归母净利润为-10.44亿 元，上年同期为-1.88亿元；扣非净利润为-10.42亿元，上年同期为-1.95亿元，亏损规模显著扩大。2024 年公司综合毛利率为7.77%，同比减少18.67个百分点。 对于业绩持续亏损的原因，利元亨方面解释称，除了下游国内新能源市场需求减缓、订单量下降和交付 验收周期延长外，公司依托长期积累的锂电客户资源及在手订单切入智能工厂赛道，但前期签单量较 少，致使收入降低。 利元亨方面坦言，动力锂电设备市场竞争加剧，公司为获取战略客户订单，在竞标阶段存在价格让步的 情形。加之部分整线设备安装调试周期较长，面对行业下行周期时，公司的销售收入和毛利率水平下降 幅度高于同行业可比公司。 不过，利元亨在2025年第一季度业绩出现好转迹象。 财报显示，一季度，利元亨实现营业收入7.15亿元，同比下降6%；归母净利润由2024年一季度亏损1.88 亿元转为盈利1281.97万元。毛利率由2024年一季度17.38%增长17.46个百分点至34.84%；归母净利率增 至1.79%。 利元亨方面表示，这主要得益于公司 ...

展望后市，该机构认为，由于市场对伊朗原油限制、霍尔木兹海峡封锁等能源方面的担忧仍未消除，油 价有望在区域政治前景的不确定性影响下震荡上行。持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 截至2025年6月20日 14:13，国证石油天然气指数(399439)下跌1.39%。成分股方面涨跌互现，兴通股份 (603209)10cm涨停，洪田股份(603800)上涨5.71%，蓝焰控股(000968)上涨3.52%；华锦股份(000059)领 跌，潜能恒信(300191)、泰山石油(000554)跟跌。油气ETF(159697)最新报价1.03元。 规模方面，油气ETF最新规模达1.85亿元，创近1年新高。份额方面，油气ETF最新份额达1.78亿份，创 近1年新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，油气ETF近5天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得4125.99万元净流入，合 计"吸金"1.12亿元。 光大证券指出，根据IEA，伊朗目前原油、凝析油和NGL产量约为480万桶/日，今年以来伊朗的原油和 凝析油出口量平均约为1 ...

Group 1 - Shell's CEO Wael Sawan warned that a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could have significant impacts on global trade, emphasizing the importance of this route for oil supply [1] - The company has developed contingency plans to address potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran [1] - Approximately 20% of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any incident affecting this area could lead to increased oil prices [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicated that two oil tankers collided and caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz, potentially due to electronic interference related to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict [2] - Wael Sawan noted that signal interference is currently a significant challenge, and Shell is operating with extreme caution in its shipping operations in the Middle East [2]