工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点评 23 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8925 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.3%，持 仓减仓 11794 手至 27.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9604 元/吨，较 上一交易日上调 121 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回涨至 8900 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 25 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 50260 元/ 吨，日内跌幅 2.74%，持仓增仓 7826 手至 11.6 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投 硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52500 元/吨，现 货升水扩至 2240 元/吨。工业硅短期成本支撑与高库存压制并存，存在 偏强支撑。多晶硅能耗政策意见稿发布，1/2 级标准稍有提升，但相对 强制出清力度相对温和。特朗普计划将硅产品纳入征税清单。在内外 政策联动且均未落地阶段，多晶硅抢生产和抢出口情绪浓厚。政策和 实际供需演绎方向背离，形成短期承压长期偏强的格局。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | ...

有色金属类 工业硅&多晶硅： 23日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2511收于8925元/吨，日内跌幅2.3%，持仓减仓11794手至27.4万手。百川工 业硅现货参考价9604元/吨，较上一交易日上调121元/吨。最低交割品#421价格回涨至8900元/吨，现货 贴水收至25元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力2511收于50260元/吨，日内跌幅2.74%，持仓增仓7826手至 11.6万手；多晶硅N型复投硅料价格涨至52500元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至52500元/吨，现货升水扩 至2240元/吨。工业硅短期成本支撑与高库存压制并存，存在偏强支撑。多晶硅能耗政策意见稿发布， 1/2级标准稍有提升，但相对强制出清力度相对温和。特朗普计划将硅产品纳入征税清单。在内外政策 联动且均未落地阶段，多晶硅抢生产和抢出口情绪浓厚。政策和实际供需演绎方向背离，形成短期承压 长期偏强的格局。 碳酸锂： 昨日碳酸锂期货2511合约跌0.16%至73660元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持73850元/ 吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价维持71600元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）维持74130元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存增加540吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market is running strongly, mainly influenced by the market's expectations of energy - consumption policies during the association meeting. It is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of overall commodity sentiment and policy expectations [2]. - For polysilicon, the current fundamentals are average, but the downstream production schedule is better than expected. The recent large decline in the futures market is due to the high settlement price of the previous day and the large increase last week. The futures price decline is to some extent a regression of the basis. The market is affected by both weak reality and strong policy expectations, with large fluctuations in the near - term. If the anti - involution policy progresses well, polysilicon can be considered for long - term low - buying [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was running strongly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8300 yuan/ton and closed at 8665 yuan/ton, a change of 135 yuan/ton (1.58%) from the previous day's settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 278,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,045 lots, a change of 90 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in other regions also remained stable [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The monomer factory's pre - sales orders were relatively sufficient, with little inventory pressure. Downstream enterprises still mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the support for the market was relatively limited. It is expected that silicone will stabilize in the short term [1]. - **Strategy** - The spot price remains stable, and the fundamentals have little change. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely under the influence of overall commodity sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 52,400 yuan/ton and closed at 52,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.40% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,072 lots (142,980 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 411,979 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.10 (a month - on - month change of - 0.90%), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW (a month - on - month change of - 6.65%), the weekly polysilicon output was 30,200 tons (a month - on - month change of - 2.58%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW (a month - on - month change of 3.53%) [4]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.63 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.38 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece) [4]. - The prices of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][6]. - The mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm components were 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. If the anti - involution policy progresses well, polysilicon can be considered for long - term low - buying [7].

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]