东莞证券表示，进入11月，市场将进入政策效能集中释放与四季度盈利验证的关键窗口。考虑到"十五 五"建议稿聚焦高质量发展与科技自立自强，中美元首会晤有望开启中美关系的阶段性缓和期，或对市 场风偏形成积极支撑，指数有望在震荡中延续慢牛行情。板块上建议关注新能源、红利、科技成长和有 色金属等板块。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 4日，两市主要股指盘中震荡下探，深证成指、创业板指一度跌近2%，场内超3600股飘绿。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.41%报3960.19点，深证成指跌1.71%报13175.22点，创业板指跌1.96%报3134.09点， 北证50指数跌2.45%，沪深北三市合计成交19386亿元。 盘面上看，有色、半导体、医药、汽车、酿酒等板块走低，银行、旅游、保险等板块拉升，两岸融合、 短剧游戏概念等活跃。 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 观望情绪渐增，焦炭高位调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 核心逻辑：截至 10 月 31 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.8 万吨，周环比小幅下 降 0.3 万吨/天，基本持稳，较去年同期产量偏低 ...

理性投资，风险自担 股指月报：美联储释放偏鹰信号，金融条件收紧抑制股市 正信期货股指期货周报 202511 研究员：蒲祖林 投资咨询证号：Z0017203 Email：puzl@zxqh.net 核心观点 行情回顾 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦扰动、美国通胀数据保持强劲，中国经济弱现实加剧、俄乌地缘冲突 宏观：中美元首会晤和美联储议息结束，宏观靴子悉数落地，市场利多全面兑现，然而，美联储释放偏鹰指引，四季度 对风险资产有利空压，国内经济弱现实压力仍显著，制造业PMI创新低，凸显需求不足，但财政增量资金边际发力，有望 对经济起托底作用。 中观：国内经济数据持续疲软，尤其是消费和地产端，地产在无增量利多政策背景下高频销售数据显著滑坡，PMI显示出 口订单悬崖式下降，与抢出口结束有关，但反内卷政策持续推进，实体经济供需双弱。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，政府债务融资持续上升，公开市场货币投放边际增加，流动性短期中性，但四季度信贷脉 冲边际收紧，被动ETF基金持续申购，两融资金继续稳定流入，产业资本减持力度有所放缓； 海外流动性在联储鹰派指 引下边际收紧，外资有边际流出驱动。市场资金供需总体偏乐观，但也存一定分歧，谨防高位风 ...

公开信息显示，截至10月30日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数最新估值（PETTM）为23.50 倍，处于指数发布以来约32.84%的估值分位点，即当前估值低于指数历史上近七成时间，具备一定安 全边际。没有港股通账户的投资者或可通过恒生科技指数ETF（513180）一键布局中国AI核心资产。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 10月31日，港股三大指数震荡走低，恒生科技指数午后跌超1.5%。盘面上，科网股普跌，创新药概念 股逆市上涨，半导体板块走弱。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟 随指数下行，持仓股中，金蝶国际、金山软件、海尔智家等领涨，华虹半导体、中芯国际、比亚迪股 份、阿里巴巴、快手、腾讯控股等领跌，其中华虹半导体午后跌超7%。 华西证券指出，中美元首会晤后，全球市场兑现预期。市场也将进入一段宏观"真空期"。港股方面，除 了全球市场兑现乐观预期以外，鲍威尔称美联储尚未就12月会议作出决定，也对行情形成压力。降息预 期回撤阶段，美元走强，可能继续压制港股行情。 不过该机构认为，港股更适合以中长期视角来看待，尤其是科技板块。在科技产业确认进入景气周期的 背景下， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Thursday, soybean oil showed a strong performance. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, the commercial import profit of US soybeans is negative, and the cost increase supports domestic soybean prices. With ample domestic soybean oil supply and the over - hanging shadow of palm oil production increase, soybean oil will mainly bottom - out and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8080 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Thursday, the main rapeseed oil contract continued to be weak. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and the rapeseed sector is still affected by macro - economic and trade policies. The Sino - US summit released positive signals, which is negative for supply - side production. The expected meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders strengthens the expectation of relaxed rapeseed imports, pressuring rapeseed oil sentiment. The current rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but the new supply is tightening, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. If there is no substantial relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies, the rapeseed sector is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. For the main rapeseed oil contract, short positions should be reduced on dips. The support level of the OI main contract is 9350 - 9380, and the pressure level is 9900 - 9930 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Thursday, palm oil prices opened low and closed high, showing an overall weak trend. The over - expected production increase in Indonesia may offset the increase in biodiesel consumption, and the decline in international crude oil prices also weakens palm oil. As palm oil will enter the production - reduction season in November, the downward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, palm oil may bottom - out and fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main palm oil contract is 8750 - 8780, and the pressure level is 9300 - 9350 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: On Thursday, soybean meal prices were firm. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, and the export signal of US soybeans is positive, driving up CBOT soybeans. The export potential of South American soybeans is declining, and the cost end supports the price of soybean No. 2. The import cost of soybeans increases, and the oil mill's profit margin narrows. Soybean meal is expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to go long lightly in the short term. The support level of the main soybean meal contract is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3750 - 3810 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Thursday, rapeseed meal prices rebounded slightly after the opening. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is slightly boosted by the rebound of soybean meal. The market is worried about the relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies. The current supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. However, the demand in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the RM main contract is 2280 - 2300, and the pressure level is 2450 - 2480 [4][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Thursday, the prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Sino - US trade negotiation results are in line with expectations, and the pressure of concentrated listing continues to suppress the market. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is coming to an end, and the selling pressure is gradually releasing, while the downstream support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or consider the reverse spread opportunity of the corn 1 - 5 spread. For the corn 01 contract, the support range is 2000 - 2020, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200. For the corn starch 01 contract, the support range is 2350 - 2360, and the pressure range is 2500 - 2520. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Thursday, the price of soybean No. 1 stagnated and adjusted. The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market has risen steadily, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low. The supply of Northeast soybeans is increasing, but there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grass - roots level. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled slightly, and it is recommended to exit long positions. The pressure level of the soybean No. 1 01 contract is 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: On Thursday, the peanut futures price continued to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market lacks positive themes. The new - season peanut planting area in 2025 increased by 4.01% year - on - year, but the yield in some areas of Henan may decline due to weather. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, there is still pressure on spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 [6]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the futures price of pigs decreased with increasing positions. The market is still worried about the risk of pig hoarding. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the basis difference between the 2511 contract and the spot price is gradually narrowing. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range of the 01 contract is 11800 - 12000, and the pressure range is 12500 - 12800 [7][8]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the futures price of eggs rose first and then fell. The spot price stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. The overall consumption is gradually entering a seasonal peak season, and the egg production capacity is gradually being reduced. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The reference range of the 12 contract is 2900 - 3100, and the pressure range is 3300 - 3350 [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 01 is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and it is recommended to exit long positions; soybean No. 2 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; peanut 11 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short lightly; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; palm 01 is expected to bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions; starch 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Pig 01 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude; egg 12 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Cross - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the reference strategy is to wait and see, while for some, such as corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices, and for pig 1 - 3, it is recommended to do positive arbitrage at low prices [13]. - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: Different cross - variety combinations have different reference strategies, including short - term operations, long - term operations, and waiting and seeing [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [17]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, operating rate, etc., are presented [18]. c. Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, production and sales data, inventory data, and profit data [19][20][21][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory, and trading volume of pigs and eggs [23][27][29][30] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts cover the production, inventory, trading volume, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [32][40][49] - **Feed End**: Charts display the price trends, inventory, operating rate, and profit of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][63][68][80] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts show the historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [89][91] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts present the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [97][100][105]

中方对美国人民遭受的芬太尼危机表示同情，曾为此提供帮助并取得积极效果，对继续同美方开展合作 持开放态度。美方应采取实际行动，为双方合作创造必要条件。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 中方：对美国人民遭受的芬太尼危机表示同情，美方应为合作创造必要条件 中新网北京10月29日电 (记者 谢雁冰)中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆29日主持例行记者会。有记者就中美元 首会晤可能谈及所谓"芬太尼关税"问题提问。 郭嘉昆：中方在这个问题上的立场是一贯的、明确的。中国是禁毒最坚决、政策最彻底、记录最良好的 国家，也是世界上列管物质最多、管制最严格的国家之一。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China-US economic and trade consultations, highlighting the constructive dialogue and agreements reached between the two nations [2][3]. Group 1: China-US Economic and Trade Consultations - The Chinese side has reported that the recent economic and trade consultations were guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, focusing on significant economic issues of mutual concern [2]. - Both sides have achieved a basic consensus on addressing their respective concerns and agreed to further specify details and follow domestic approval procedures [2]. Group 2: Communication Between Leaders - The article emphasizes the importance of "leader diplomacy" in guiding China-US relations, noting that there is close communication and interaction between the leaders of both countries [2][4]. - The Chinese side will release further information regarding the leaders' meetings as it becomes available [4]. Group 3: Specific Issues Discussed - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that an agreement was reached regarding soybean purchases and that China would delay the implementation of export control measures on rare earths [3]. - The article also touches on the potential final agreement regarding TikTok, reiterating China's consistent stance on the matter [3].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 27 日 股指期货：风偏积极，偏强运行 ● 趋势策略。逢低做多。预计 IF 主力合约 IF2511 核心运行区间 4509 和 4741 点；IH 主力合约 IH2511 核心运行区间 2972 和 3109 点；IC 主力合约 IC2511 核心运行区间 6995 和 7464 点；IM 主力合 约 IM2511 核心运行区间 7111 和 7590 点。 ● 跨品种策略。空 IF（或 IH）多 IC(或 IM)的策略持有。 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场上涨，沪指突破 3950 点，创近十年新高，逼近 4000 点大关。通 信、电子、电力设备涨幅居前；农林牧渔、食品饮料、美容护理跌幅居前。四中全会闭幕，政策靴子落 地，不确定性降低。未来五年方向明确，规划重提"坚持以经济建设为中心"。虽然外部环境恶化，不利 扰动增多，但依然重申暗含 GDP 增速要求的"2035 远景目标"，或预示稳增长仍将持续贯穿"十五五"时 期。整体上"四中全会"为市场吃了定心丸。除了经济总量稳定抬升以 ...