Market Overview - On November 4, major stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2% at one point, and over 3,600 stocks declining in value [1] - By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.41% to 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.71% to 13175.22 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.96% to 3134.09 points [1] - The Northbound 50 Index declined by 2.45%, with total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Northbound markets reaching 19,386 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and liquor saw declines, while banking, tourism, and insurance sectors experienced gains [1] - Concepts related to cross-strait integration and short drama games were notably active [1] Future Outlook - Dongguan Securities indicated that November will be a critical window for the release of policy effectiveness and verification of fourth-quarter earnings [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft focuses on high-quality development and technological self-reliance, while the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents may lead to a phase of easing relations, potentially providing positive support for market sentiment [1] - The index is expected to continue a slow bull market amidst fluctuations, with recommendations to focus on sectors such as new energy, dividends, technology growth, and non-ferrous metals [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J) in the 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - **Price行情驱动逻辑**: As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 0.3 thousand tons per day, and 2.2 thousand tons per day lower than the same period last year. From October 20th to 25th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 - port was 4,814, a weekly decrease of 2,406 trucks. Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia in the middle of the month, the customs clearance efficiency dropped significantly, but it has returned to normal this week, with the daily number of trucks increasing to about 1,200. On the demand side, as of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of Jiao Coal has no significant change. The upward driving force mainly comes from the macro - level benefits brought by the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations, as well as the strong expectations of safety supervision and anti - involution on Jiao Coal supply [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price行情驱动逻辑**: As of the week ending October 31, the total daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.8 thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.08 thousand tons. After the second round of price increase of coke was implemented, the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steel Union was - 32 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 9 yuan, but still in a loss state, and the production enthusiasm has not significantly improved. The coking enterprises still have the intention to raise prices. On the demand side, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 236.36 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 3.54 thousand tons per day, and the profitability rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, the supply of coke is stable, the demand is declining, and the fundamentals are marginally weakening. However, during the week, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders reached multiple economic and trade consensuses, and the cooling of trade frictions has improved the market sentiment, so the coke futures temporarily maintain high - level operation [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After the macro events such as the China-US summit and the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's positive factors have been fully realized. However, the Fed has released a hawkish guidance, which exerts downward pressure on risk assets in Q4. The domestic economy still faces significant pressure, with the manufacturing PMI hitting a new low, indicating insufficient demand. But the incremental fiscal funds are expected to support the economy [4]. - The domestic economic data continues to be weak, especially in the consumption and real estate sectors. The high-frequency real estate sales data has declined significantly without incremental positive policies. The export orders shown by the PMI have dropped sharply, related to the end of the rush to export. The anti-involution policy is being promoted, resulting in a weak supply and demand in the real economy [4]. - The domestic liquidity is generally loose, with the government debt financing rising continuously and the marginal increase in open market money supply. The short-term liquidity is neutral, but the credit impulse in Q4 is marginally tightening. Passive ETF funds continue to be subscribed, and margin trading funds continue to flow in stably. The reduction intensity of industrial capital has slowed down. Overseas liquidity is marginally tightening under the Fed's hawkish guidance, and foreign capital has a marginal outflow tendency. The overall supply and demand of market funds are relatively optimistic, but there are also some differences, so beware of the risk of high-level style switching [4]. - After a sharp short-term rise, the valuations of various indices have reached relatively high levels in history. The stock-bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - Currently, the broad-based index market has high valuations, especially the growth style. The risk premium indices at home and abroad have dropped to low levels, and the attractiveness of the stock market has decreased marginally. With the large market scale, the limited liquidity is difficult to drive continuous growth. After the short-term macro positive factors are fully realized, the market enters a policy vacuum period. With the marginal support of fiscal funds for the economy in Q4, the overall macro fluctuations are expected to be small. The market may maintain a high-level range-bound trend, similar to that in Q4 last year. Focus on structural opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a high-sell and low-buy strategy for stock indices in November. Consider shorting IF, IC, and IM stock indices in the high-rebound area and going long on IF and IH stock indices in the sharp-drop low area. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the cyclical style and shorting the growth style [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the past month, among global stock markets, the Nikkei 225 led the rise, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led the decline. Among domestic stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 4.05% [8][9]. - In the past month, among industries, coal led the rise, while media led the decline [12]. - In the past month, the basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.19%, 0.14%, -0.35%, and 0.65% respectively. The discounts of IC and IM widened, while the discounts of IF and IH narrowed slightly. The changes in the inter - period spreads of the four major stock index futures were generally small, but the long - term discounts of IC and IM widened significantly [18]. Fund Flow - In October, margin trading funds flowed in 104.93 billion yuan to reach 2.5 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 0.08% to 2.58%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3.73373 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.81 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 211.724 billion shares, with a subscription of 76.25 billion shares from the previous month, and a subscription of 5.89 billion shares in the latest week, with the scale increasing by 15.36 billion yuan [21]. - In October, equity financing was 49.44 billion yuan, with 6 companies. IPO financing was 12.16 billion yuan, private placement was 37.27 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 5.48 billion yuan. The equity financing scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the reduction in private placement. The market value of restricted - share lifting in October was 246.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.14 billion yuan from the previous month, mainly due to the one - week less trading time during the National Day holiday. The reduction scale in the recent week decreased marginally, with the monthly - annualized scale dropping to 211.28 billion yuan [24]. Liquidity - In October, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 5.8572 trillion yuan, with a reverse repurchase issuance of 5.2761 trillion yuan, resulting in a net money withdrawal of 58.11 billion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business tightened. The MLF issued 900 billion yuan and expired 700 billion yuan in October, with a net issuance of 20 billion yuan. The MLF has had a net issuance for 8 consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply is neutral to loose [26]. - In October, the DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 1.7bp, - 12.6bp, and - 5.8bp respectively to 1.46%, 1.41%, and 1.32%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 8.5bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 2.1bp to 1.64%. The capital supply tended to be loose, and the debt financing demand was strong. The capital price generally fluctuated at a low level [32]. - In October, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 8.1bp, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 5.6bp, and the 2 - year Treasury bond yield changed by - 10.9bp. The 10 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 11.1bp, the 5 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 7.3bp, and the 2 - year CDB bond yield changed by - 6.8bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened slightly in October, and both long - and short - term interest rates decreased significantly, mainly due to the weak economic data and the decline in financing demand. The credit spread between Treasury bonds and CDB bonds narrowed significantly at the long end, indicating a cooling of the broad - credit expectation [36]. - As of October 31, the 10 - year US Treasury bond rate changed by - 5.0bp to 4.11%, the inflation expectation changed by - 6.0bp to 2.30%, and the real interest rate changed by 1.00bp to 1.81%. The risk asset prices were first boosted and then suppressed by the financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by - 5.00bp to 51.00bp. The inversion of the China - US interest rate spread widened slightly by 1.12bp to - 231.42bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.11%. The US dollar against the RMB fluctuated at a level below the mid - point of the three - year range [39]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - As of October 30, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.074 million square meters, a slight decrease from the previous week's 2.101 million square meters, returning to a relatively low level in the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 45.4%. The second - hand housing sales decreased seasonally and significantly from the previous month, returning to a relatively low level in the past seven years. The real estate market sales showed a weak performance overall, with the sales center oscillating at a low level, and there were signs of marginal acceleration of weakening in the short term [43]. - As of October 31, the weekly average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities in China remained at a high level, reaching 83.8 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a 32% increase compared with the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry heated up marginally. The traffic congestion delay index in 100 cities rebounded from the previous week, remaining at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [46]. - In October, the overall capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry decreased. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 2.25%, the asphalt capacity utilization rate changed by - 8.6%, the cement clinker enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by 5%, the coking enterprise capacity utilization rate changed by - 1.99%, and the average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.5% from the previous month. On the one hand, the implementation of the anti - involution policy led to a decrease in capacity utilization; on the other hand, the weakening of domestic and foreign demand in the manufacturing industry led to a reduction in enterprise operating rates [50]. - In terms of exports, after the tariff policies of the US on major countries have been finalized and the China - US summit postponed the tariff policy exemption for one year, the risk of a full - scale escalation of trade frictions has dropped sharply. After the previous export impulse effect, there is a risk of a pulse decline in Q4. China's manufacturing export competitiveness is strong, and after the decline in trade friction risks, it is expected to maintain its potential growth rate for a long time, supporting the economic center [58]. - In September, the US CPI inflation continued to rebound, while the core CPI inflation unexpectedly decreased, with a month - on - month decline of 0.1% to 3%. In terms of structure, energy prices contributed the main increase, the growth of food and beverages related to commodity inflation did not expand, and the housing and medical sub - items related to core inflation declined significantly, especially the housing sub - item, which decreased by 0.2% in a single month, indicating that the policy of expelling illegal immigrants began to affect core inflation again. Assuming that the month - on - month growth rate in October remains at 0.3% and drops to 0.2% from November to December, the annualized month - on - month rate at the end of the year will drop to 2.84%, and the Fed has limited room for further interest rate cuts this year [59]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected by the market, but Powell released a hawkish guidance in the press conference, expressing concerns about the lag effect of tariffs on inflation and stating that the overall economic pressure was not large, and the preventive interest rate cuts were expected to end. The financial market significantly revised the overly optimistic market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of another interest rate cut in December 2025 dropped significantly to 63%, and the market will maintain a wait - and - see attitude until next April. The expected terminal interest rate for this year's interest rate cuts is between 3.5% - 3.75% [63]. Other Analyses - In the past month, the stock - bond risk premium was 2.56%, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous month, at the 44.1% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, at the 16.7% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low level [66]. - The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 86.4%, 86.6%, 95.7%, and 85.3% quantiles respectively in the past five years, with relatively high valuation levels. The quantiles changed by 0.3%, - 1.6%, - 4%, and - 0.3% respectively from the previous month, and the attractiveness of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices increased marginally [70]. - According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market in November is in a period of seasonal oscillation and structural differentiation. In terms of style, the growth style takes the lead first, followed by the cyclical style, with an overall high - level oscillation. The profit - making effect of the stock market in November is generally poor, and the style switches frequently. Considering the high valuation of the current growth style, the weak real - economy situation, and the full realization of positive factors, it is prone to high - level adjustments. Since the IF, IH, and IC are highly related to AI technology, all styles have adjustment risks. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the cyclical style's supplementary increase and the switch from the growth style to AI applications. Go long on IF and IH in case of a sharp drop, and conduct high - sell and low - buy operations on IC and IM [74].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on October 31, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 1.5% in the afternoon session, driven by widespread losses in tech stocks and weakness in the semiconductor sector [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index's downward trend, with leading stocks such as Kingdee International, Kingsoft, and Haier Smart Home performing well, while stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor, SMIC, BYD, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Tencent Holdings faced significant declines, with Hua Hong Semiconductor dropping over 7% in the afternoon [1] - According to Huaxi Securities, the global market is currently in a "vacuum period" following the US-China leaders' meeting, and the market is under pressure due to the lack of decisions from the Federal Reserve regarding the December meeting, alongside a strengthening US dollar [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a moderate increase of 37.49% since April 8, which is comparable to the 37.85% increase of the Wind All A Index, despite a significant pullback in October [1] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is at 23.50 times P/E ratio, which is at a valuation percentile of approximately 32.84%, indicating that it is lower than 70% of its historical valuation period, suggesting a certain margin of safety for investors [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account may consider using the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) to gain exposure to core AI assets in China [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Thursday, soybean oil showed a strong performance. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, the commercial import profit of US soybeans is negative, and the cost increase supports domestic soybean prices. With ample domestic soybean oil supply and the over - hanging shadow of palm oil production increase, soybean oil will mainly bottom - out and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8080 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Thursday, the main rapeseed oil contract continued to be weak. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and the rapeseed sector is still affected by macro - economic and trade policies. The Sino - US summit released positive signals, which is negative for supply - side production. The expected meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders strengthens the expectation of relaxed rapeseed imports, pressuring rapeseed oil sentiment. The current rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but the new supply is tightening, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. If there is no substantial relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies, the rapeseed sector is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. For the main rapeseed oil contract, short positions should be reduced on dips. The support level of the OI main contract is 9350 - 9380, and the pressure level is 9900 - 9930 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Thursday, palm oil prices opened low and closed high, showing an overall weak trend. The over - expected production increase in Indonesia may offset the increase in biodiesel consumption, and the decline in international crude oil prices also weakens palm oil. As palm oil will enter the production - reduction season in November, the downward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, palm oil may bottom - out and fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main palm oil contract is 8750 - 8780, and the pressure level is 9300 - 9350 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: On Thursday, soybean meal prices were firm. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, and the export signal of US soybeans is positive, driving up CBOT soybeans. The export potential of South American soybeans is declining, and the cost end supports the price of soybean No. 2. The import cost of soybeans increases, and the oil mill's profit margin narrows. Soybean meal is expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to go long lightly in the short term. The support level of the main soybean meal contract is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3750 - 3810 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Thursday, rapeseed meal prices rebounded slightly after the opening. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is slightly boosted by the rebound of soybean meal. The market is worried about the relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies. The current supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. However, the demand in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the RM main contract is 2280 - 2300, and the pressure level is 2450 - 2480 [4][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Thursday, the prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Sino - US trade negotiation results are in line with expectations, and the pressure of concentrated listing continues to suppress the market. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is coming to an end, and the selling pressure is gradually releasing, while the downstream support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or consider the reverse spread opportunity of the corn 1 - 5 spread. For the corn 01 contract, the support range is 2000 - 2020, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200. For the corn starch 01 contract, the support range is 2350 - 2360, and the pressure range is 2500 - 2520. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Thursday, the price of soybean No. 1 stagnated and adjusted. The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market has risen steadily, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low. The supply of Northeast soybeans is increasing, but there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grass - roots level. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled slightly, and it is recommended to exit long positions. The pressure level of the soybean No. 1 01 contract is 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: On Thursday, the peanut futures price continued to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market lacks positive themes. The new - season peanut planting area in 2025 increased by 4.01% year - on - year, but the yield in some areas of Henan may decline due to weather. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, there is still pressure on spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 [6]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the futures price of pigs decreased with increasing positions. The market is still worried about the risk of pig hoarding. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the basis difference between the 2511 contract and the spot price is gradually narrowing. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range of the 01 contract is 11800 - 12000, and the pressure range is 12500 - 12800 [7][8]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the futures price of eggs rose first and then fell. The spot price stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. The overall consumption is gradually entering a seasonal peak season, and the egg production capacity is gradually being reduced. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The reference range of the 12 contract is 2900 - 3100, and the pressure range is 3300 - 3350 [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 01 is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and it is recommended to exit long positions; soybean No. 2 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; peanut 11 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short lightly; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; palm 01 is expected to bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions; starch 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Pig 01 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude; egg 12 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Cross - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the reference strategy is to wait and see, while for some, such as corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices, and for pig 1 - 3, it is recommended to do positive arbitrage at low prices [13]. - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: Different cross - variety combinations have different reference strategies, including short - term operations, long - term operations, and waiting and seeing [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [17]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, operating rate, etc., are presented [18]. c. Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, production and sales data, inventory data, and profit data [19][20][21][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory, and trading volume of pigs and eggs [23][27][29][30] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts cover the production, inventory, trading volume, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [32][40][49] - **Feed End**: Charts display the price trends, inventory, operating rate, and profit of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][63][68][80] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts show the historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [89][91] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts present the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [97][100][105]

Core Viewpoint - China expresses sympathy for the American people affected by the fentanyl crisis and calls for the U.S. to create necessary conditions for cooperation [1] Group 1: China's Position on Drug Control - China maintains a consistent and clear stance on drug control, being one of the countries with the most stringent regulations and the highest number of controlled substances [1] - The Chinese government has a strong record in drug prohibition and has previously provided assistance to the U.S. regarding the fentanyl issue, achieving positive results [1] Group 2: Call for Cooperation - China is open to continuing cooperation with the U.S. on the fentanyl crisis and urges the U.S. to take practical actions to facilitate this collaboration [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China-US economic and trade consultations, highlighting the constructive dialogue and agreements reached between the two nations [2][3]. Group 1: China-US Economic and Trade Consultations - The Chinese side has reported that the recent economic and trade consultations were guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, focusing on significant economic issues of mutual concern [2]. - Both sides have achieved a basic consensus on addressing their respective concerns and agreed to further specify details and follow domestic approval procedures [2]. Group 2: Communication Between Leaders - The article emphasizes the importance of "leader diplomacy" in guiding China-US relations, noting that there is close communication and interaction between the leaders of both countries [2][4]. - The Chinese side will release further information regarding the leaders' meetings as it becomes available [4]. Group 3: Specific Issues Discussed - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that an agreement was reached regarding soybean purchases and that China would delay the implementation of export control measures on rare earths [3]. - The article also touches on the potential final agreement regarding TikTok, reiterating China's consistent stance on the matter [3].

Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The market rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points and approaching 4000 points. After the Fourth Plenary Session, policy uncertainty decreased, and the overall market risk preference rebounded. It is expected that the market may continue to be bullish this week, and the 4000 - point mark is expected to be broken. The follow - up market strength depends on policy and market sentiment [1][2] Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Last week, the market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points, hitting a ten - year high and approaching 4000 points. Communication, electronics, and power equipment led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, and beauty care led the losses [1] - Policy Impact: After the Fourth Plenary Session, policy uncertainty decreased. The "15th Five - Year Plan" re - emphasized "taking economic construction as the center" and the "2035 Vision Goals", indicating that stable growth will continue throughout the "15th Five - Year" period. It will also bring industrial upgrading and technological innovation, benefiting stock market speculation [1] - International Factors: China and the US have started negotiations in Malaysia. As the APEC meeting at the end of the month approaches, the market's expectation of trade relaxation has increased, boosting risk preference. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the expectation of a rate cut this month is dovish [1][2] - Future Market Expectation: Before the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the China - US APEC meeting, the market is expected to remain positive. It is expected that the market will continue to be bullish this week, and the 4000 - point mark may be broken. The follow - up strength depends on policy and market sentiment [2] - Attention Factors: "15th Five - Year Plan", China - US summit meeting, Fed's interest - rate meeting [3] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4] - Trend Strategy: Buy on dips. The core operating ranges of IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 are 4509 - 4741 points, 2972 - 3109 points, 6995 - 7464 points, and 7111 - 7590 points respectively [4] - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5] Spot Market Review - Global Stock Index Performance: Last week, US stocks (Dow Jones +2.2%, S&P 500 +1.92%, Nasdaq +2.31%), European stocks (UK FTSE 100 +3.11%, German DAX +1.72%, French CAC40 +0.63%), and Asian - Pacific stocks (Nikkei 225 +3.61%, Hang Seng Index +3.62%) all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% [9][10][12] - Index Performance in 2025: Since 2025, major domestic indices such as the ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Small and Medium - cap Board Index have all risen [11] - Industry Performance in Index: In the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, most industries rose last week, with telecommunications, information, and industry sectors performing well [14] Stock Index Futures Market Review - Futures Contract Performance: Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [16][17] - Basis and Cross - variety Ratio: The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio [21] Index Valuation Tracking - Valuation Data: As of October 24, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 index was 14.56 times, and the PE (TTM) of the SSE 50 index was 12.31 times. The PE (TTM) of the CSI 500 index was 34.39 times, and the PE (TTM) of the CSI 1000 index was 47.02 times [22][23] Market Fundamentals Review - Fund - related Data: The report shows the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline in capital interest rates last week, and the net capital injection by the central bank [25][26][27]