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高盛闭门会-阿里的全栈ai战略和芯片,估值逻辑和数据中心
Goldman Sachs· 2025-10-09 02:00
在过去一周里,我们看到了大量关于阿里巴巴的报告和分析。特别是在第二季 度,Kappa X 的业绩超预期,推动了云计算和数据中心子板块的升级。阿里巴 巴上季度 26%的云收入增长引起了广泛关注,我们将其云收入增长预期提高至 30%~32%。在基础设施、模型以及应用和代理等各个方面取得重大突破后, 阿里巴巴吸引了大量新的企业和公司客户,他们正在采用阿里巴巴云进行 AI 模 型的后期训练。此外,阿里巴巴的开源模型也吸引了更多企业客户使用这个模 型进行后期训练。这为其云收入长期加速奠定了基础。 阿里巴巴在电子商务业务上的表现如何? 零售业务的 CMR 和 GMB 增长部分得益于电商交叉销售,中期内也可能节省一 些销售和营销成本。我们的基本预测是离之前设定的目标价格非常接近。在过 去 2 周内,股价已经上涨近 27%。我们给电子商务核心业务采用 10 倍估值倍 数,这是基于其核心收入,而不是总收入。在快速电商业务亏损后,这只是针 对淘宝团队业绩情况。此外,我们还将总收入 6 倍纳入估值方法,这不仅仅是 高盛闭门会-阿里的全栈 ai 战略和芯片,估值逻辑和数据中 心 摘要 阿里巴巴云收入增长预期提升至 30%-32%,受 ...
华尔街观察|美资兴趣回升,中国科网巨头迎估值重估2.0
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 10:13
Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of interest in Chinese tech stocks is driven by advancements in AI and the push for self-sufficiency in chip production, leading to significant stock price increases for major companies like Alibaba and Tencent [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index has surged 41% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq's 17% increase, with a notable 13% rise in the current month [1] - Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu have seen substantial stock price increases this year, with Alibaba up 96%, Tencent up 55%, and Baidu up 59% [2] - AI-related companies, including Alibaba and Bilibili, are experiencing short squeezes, indicating heightened investor interest [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Sentiment - Chinese tech stocks are perceived as significantly cheaper than their U.S. counterparts, attracting speculative investments amid improving market sentiment following U.S.-China talks [2] - The anticipated return of capital to emerging markets, particularly in China, is bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: AI and Cloud Computing Developments - AI advancements are expected to enhance profitability for Chinese tech giants, with Alibaba's cloud business projected to grow 30%-32% year-on-year in the upcoming fiscal quarters [3] - Alibaba's new AI model, Qwen-3-Max-Preview, boasts a tenfold performance improvement and a significant reduction in construction costs [3] - Baidu's focus on its Kunlun chip has drawn attention, with analysts noting its low valuation despite recent stock price increases [3] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The shift towards a multi-chip strategy among Chinese cloud service providers reduces reliance on foreign chip supplies, positively impacting market sentiment [4] - Goldman Sachs expresses optimism about the Chinese semiconductor industry's growth, driven by a large domestic market and ongoing technological advancements [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 62% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures for top Chinese firms, reaching 373 billion yuan [4]
《国企要参》海外视点丨美国撤销台积电向中国主要芯片制造厂运送关键设备的授权
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 13:46
拜登(Biden)政府在2022年对中国半导体产业实施限制后,首次向在中国运营的外国芯片制造商授予了豁免,其中包括台积电、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和SK海力士(SK Hynix)。 美国《华尔街日报》9月3日报道:台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)表示,美国正在撤销台积电向位于中国的主要芯片制造基地自由运送关 键设备的授权,此举将加大台积电在华运营的难度。 台积电在一份声明中表示,美国政府已通知台积电,其南京工厂的"验证最终用户"(validated end user)的资格已被撤销,自12月31日起生效。这个资格允许 台积电为其设在中国的现有工厂设施进口美国芯片制造设备,而无需另行寻求美国批准。 美国商务部没有置评。分析师称,限制设备出货举措对台积电的利润影响将有限。 台积电表示:"我们正在评估相关情况并采取适当措施,包括与美国政府沟通,同时我们仍将全力确保台积电南京工厂的不间断运营。" 盛宝的Chanana说:"每一项新的限制措施都在迫使中国加倍努力进行自主创新。" 台积电在美国上市的股票昨夜一度下跌2.3%,收盘下跌1.1%; ...
再过5年,全球最大的半导体代工中心将是中国
是说芯语· 2025-07-02 06:42
Core Viewpoint - China is expected to become the largest semiconductor production center globally, aiming for a 30% share of the global semiconductor foundry capacity, driven by significant domestic investments and government support for self-sufficiency in chip production [1][3]. Group 1: Current Market Position - Taiwan currently leads the global semiconductor foundry market with a 23% capacity share, followed by China at 21%, South Korea at 19%, Japan at 13%, the United States at 10%, and Europe at 8% [1]. - The monthly semiconductor production in China is projected to reach 8.85 million wafers in 2024, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, with expectations to rise to 10.1 million wafers per month by 2025 [5]. Group 2: Investment and Capacity Expansion - China is actively constructing 18 new wafer fabs, including a collaboration between Huahong Semiconductor and a pure foundry in Shanghai to build a 12-inch wafer fab, which commenced operations in Q1 of this year [5]. - From 2025 to 2030, China is set to add 21 new wafer fabs, significantly outpacing other regions such as the United States (11), Europe (7), South Korea (6), and Taiwan (4) [6]. Group 3: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. accounts for approximately 57% of global silicon wafer demand but only holds about 10% of global semiconductor capacity, necessitating substantial imports from Taiwan, South Korea, and China to meet domestic needs [5]. - Major companies like TSMC, Intel, Samsung, Micron, GlobalFoundries, and Texas Instruments are investing in new wafer fabs in the U.S., which will enhance domestic production capabilities [7]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Challenges - Despite U.S. sanctions aimed at curbing China's chip industry, China's semiconductor sector has shown resilience and is accelerating in areas such as advanced process chip design and domestic production of semiconductor equipment [8]. - The Chinese government is investing heavily to overcome technological barriers, particularly in critical areas like lithography equipment and electronic design automation (EDA) software [7][8].