财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2026-1-19 姓名：：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 投资咨询号： Z0012495 震荡整理，量能充裕 研究员 行情回顾: 展望后市，融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方 向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力驱动 的单边趋势行情结束，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。 上周四个股指期货品种走势以震荡整理为主，其中上证 50 和 沪深 300 的调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度有 所收窄，但大部分主力合约保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货 -现货基差，IH 收于 4.64，IF 收于-8.67，IC 收于-22.27，IM 收 于-53.53。 上周 A 股市场走出震荡整理的行情，调整主要源于资金大量聚 集的商业航天、AI 应用短期涨幅过于巨大。交易所上调融资保证 金比例，较大程度上反映出监管层对市场上涨过快的降温意图。监 管措施有助于市场的长远平稳运行，同时也应看到，A 股市场成交 量创出历史最高纪录。即便指数有所回调，但充沛的市场流动性和 高涨的市场情绪下，对这种技术性回调并不值得忧虑。从商业航天、 AI 应用、 ...

引言 2023年8月，三大交易所下调融资保证金从100%至80%，奠定了1年以后流动性牛市的基 础。 2026年1月12日，上证指数创下史无前例的十七连阳，展示了资金在新一年浓厚的参 与热情。 14日，沪、深、北三家交易日午后宣布调整融资保证金比例，由最低80%上调至 100%，随即市场巨幅调整，大盘蓝筹指数如沪深300快速抹去早盘约1%的涨幅并收跌 至-0.40%；今年以来较为强势的中证500指数，虽然早盘大涨2.67%，但在午后收益也一度 转负最终以1.04%收涨。这一急剧的"V型"震荡，揭示了市场在狂热情绪与理性调控之间 的博弈，监管此次采取"新老划断"的方式，其信号意义远大于实质冲击，它并非意在扭转 市场趋势，而是在市场出现过热苗头时，进行必要的"逆周期调节"。（可参考： 融资保证 金升至100%，杠杠资金降温！近期高融资个股名单曝光！ ） 数据显示，2015年10月，两市融资余额累计净增长1261亿元，日均增加74亿元，日均融资买入额 较9月大增76%，达到1030亿元。进入11月后，热度有增无减，前8个交易日的日均融资买入额进 一步跃升至1436.16亿元，融资余额占A股流通市值的比例也回升至2. ...

Economic Data Release - Key economic data for China, including GDP growth rate, total GDP for 2025, December retail sales, and industrial output, will be released on January 19 [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on January 19 to discuss the economic performance of 2025 [1] Market Regulations - The minimum margin requirement for financing purchases of securities on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will be increased from 80% to 100%, effective January 19 [1] Upcoming Events - The World Economic Forum will take place from January 19 to 23 in Davos, Switzerland [1] - The third Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference will be held from January 23 to 25 [1] Corporate Earnings - Several major U.S. companies, including Netflix, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, and 3M, are set to announce their earnings next week [1] Stock Market Activity - Three new stocks will be issued next week: Zhenstone Co. on the Shanghai main board, Nongda Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Shiemeng Co. on the Shenzhen main board [1] - A total of 39 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.447 billion shares with a total market value of 46.499 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [1]

Market Overview - On January 14, a sudden announcement from three major exchanges raised the minimum margin requirement for financing from 80% to 100%, effective immediately, leading to a significant market downturn after an initial rally [1] - The A-share market's margin balance reached a historical high of 2.67 trillion yuan, with net financing inflow nearing 140 billion yuan in just the first seven trading days of 2026 [1][4] - Trading activity has been notably high, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan on multiple occasions, indicating elevated market sentiment [1] Impact of Margin Requirement Adjustment - Historical data suggests that previous increases in margin requirements in November 2015 and May 2017 resulted in a decrease of 6.3% and 4.1% in margin balances within a week, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing declines of 5% to 8% [4] - On January 14, the most affected sectors included TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and non-bank financials, with the CSI 2000 index dropping by 4.6% and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit increase from 3 to 58 [4] - Northbound capital also reacted negatively, with a net outflow of 6.2 billion yuan, marking the largest single-day outflow in January [4] Sector Analysis - High Beta sectors such as TMT and non-bank financials, which have high financing balances and volatility, are expected to face immediate pressure due to the margin increase [4] - Key industries like electronics, power equipment, and computing, which are significant players in margin financing, may see a slowdown in capital inflow in the short term [4] - Despite the margin increase, existing investors are not required to add additional margin, which helps maintain stability in the over 2 trillion yuan of existing margin balances [4] ETF Market Insights - Certain ETFs, such as the Hai Fu Tong CSI Short Bond ETF and the Bosera Convertible Bond ETF, have seen active margin trading, although their overall contribution to total margin trading remains limited due to their large scale [6] - ETFs with high margin trading ratios, like the Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF, should be approached with caution as forced liquidations could lead to significant price drops [6] Long-term Outlook - The adjustment of margin requirements is viewed as a "counter-cyclical fine-tuning," primarily affecting new contracts while leaving existing ones intact, suggesting limited long-term impact on market dynamics [10] - Historical patterns indicate that after initial emotional reactions, funds will likely return to selecting stocks based on fundamentals and valuations, minimizing the long-term effects of margin adjustments [10] - Despite short-term pressures, sectors such as AI applications and commercial aerospace continue to attract significant capital, indicating ongoing interest in certain growth areas [10] Future Projections - Analysts expect continued structural differentiation in the A-share market, driven by technological innovation and concentrated corporate performance, with a projected net profit growth rate for the CSI 300 index of 7.2% and 8.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [12][13]

今天，对不少炒股的朋友来说， 上午： 午后： 在午间的时候， 沪深北交易所发布通知，将投资者买入证券时的 保证金最低比例从80% 提高到100%！ 为啥要这样做呢？ 阿基米德用10元买到了50元的地球仪， 而在资本市场上，有的投资者也缺钱，于是向证券公司借入资金买入证券，这种行为也是一种杠杆。 没错，最近股市确实上涨太猛， 融资余额屡创历史新高，所以监管才选择出台降温措施，降低 杠杆水平。 那什么是杠杆呢？ 杠杆的核心就是"借"！ 比如，阿基米德自己有10元钱，但却想买50元钱的地球仪。 于是，他借来40元钱， 这借来的40元钱就是杠杆。 向具有融资融券业务资格的证券公司借钱，其实就属于两融业务中的融资交易。 有一天，一位投资者突然拍了下脑袋，预判某只股票价格日后会上涨， 因此想在现在股票便宜时赶紧入手，但是手头钱不够，咋整？ 于是，这位投资者在证券公司缴纳一定的保证金作为担保，委托该证券公司买入那只股票， 而这家接受委托的证券公司，需要符合一定要求，比如具有两融交易资格。 当证券公司收到保证金，就垫钱帮投资人买入指定股票。 至此，投资者通过较少的保证金就买下了心有所属的股票，待股票价格如预期上升，卖出就能盈 ...

格隆汇1月14日｜A股指数午后快速回落，三大指数集体翻绿，创业板指、深成指此前一度涨超2%。 ...