【冠通期货研究报告】 就业数据疲软，铜价小幅增长 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 19 日 【行情分析】 今日铜低开高走，日内偏强。美国政府官网显示，截至 10 月 18 日当周初请失业金 人数为 23.2 万人；续请失业金人数为 195.7 万人，较此前一周的续请失业金人数 194.7 万人有所增长。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有 望上移。据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体 如何执行仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺 口。需求方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出 现需求前置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。 2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万 吨，同比下降 13.5%。综合来看，美国就业数据影响降息预期，铜价小幅增长。铜产量 有增加趋势，需求端旺季向淡季过渡阶段，基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for the Canadian dollar is maintained as neutral to bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The global market is in a super interest - rate decision week. The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged. The weakening of the Canadian dollar is due to factors such as the poor economic fundamentals of Canada and external risks [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Economic Data and Interest - Rate Expectations - US inflation growth in August met economists' expectations, with the CPI rising 2.9% year - on - year and core inflation rising 3.1% year - on - year [1] - The Bank of Canada kept its interest rate at 2.75% in July, the fourth consecutive time. Officials discussed rate cuts but decided to maintain. Traders expect a 0.25 - point rate cut this month due to the shrinking economy and poor employment [2] - Canada's Q2 GDP shrank 1.6% year - on - year, the first contraction in nearly two years and the largest since the COVID - 19 pandemic, worse than the expected 0.6% decline. The unemployment rate in August rose to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, the highest in 9 years [2] Currency Outlook - The Canadian dollar is short - term bearish. The US dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate is around 1.376 and is expected to fluctuate between 1.372 and 1.392 in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The current gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent drop to around 3320 before rebounding, indicating a potential resistance at 3345-47 and 3362 levels [1][3] - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD/oz, reflecting a drop of 1.04% [3] - The recent EU-US trade negotiations resulted in an agreement favoring the US, highlighting the EU's weakened position in global economic negotiations [3] Group 2 - The gold market is currently under bearish pressure, with prices trading below key moving averages, but there is potential for a rebound if support levels are tested [4] - Last week's gold market was influenced by fundamental factors, with a high of 3439.2 and a low of 3324.6, closing at 3336.5, forming a long upper shadow candlestick pattern [4] - Current support levels for gold are identified at 3324 or 3304 USD, while resistance levels are at 3340 or 3357 USD [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank emphasizes the need for caution in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, indicating a careful approach to interest rate decisions amid economic uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank's statement reflects concerns over inflationary pressures and economic growth, suggesting that the current economic environment requires a more measured response [1] - The upcoming meeting will focus on evaluating the impact of previous rate adjustments and the overall economic outlook, highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making [1] - The Central Bank aims to balance the need for economic stimulus with the risks of rising inflation, indicating a complex monetary policy landscape [1]