2月25日，COMEX 黄金延续高位震荡，报收5183.7美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。国内SHFE金夜盘小幅探 涨，报收1153.90元/克，涨幅0.65%。地缘政治方面，美伊第三轮谈判即将举行，特朗普要听到"永不拥 核"的承诺，副总统万斯表示美对谈判抱有希望，但不排除动武。市场降低未来美联储降息押注下，地 缘政治成为黄金聚焦点，预计仍将在5000美元/盎司上下展开高位宽幅震荡，需关注本周美伊谈判进 展。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月23日，COMEX黄金继续震荡上行，报收5247.9美元/盎司，涨幅3.29%。国内SHFE金适逢春节，延 续休盘。 从业资格：F03097365 春节期间，外盘贵金属行情可分为两个阶段。上半场，市场沉浸在对美联储政策转向的重新定价之中。 美国1月非农就业数据的意外强劲与CPI数据显示的通胀粘性，让"降息延迟"乃至"加息遐想"的鹰派阴影 笼罩市场。尤其是美联储1月货币政策会议纪要所揭示的内部显著分歧，叠加新任美联储主席人选提名 引发的政策路径猜测，现货金价一度跌破5000美元/盎司关键心理关口，白银是呈现出剧烈波动。下半 场，行情因地缘政治强势回升。随着美国向中东调遣重兵，伊朗核问题谈判阴云密布，战争风险的弦骤 然绷紧。与此同时，美国商务部公布的远不及预期的2025年四季度GDP初值（1.4%）与疲软的PMI数 据，"滞胀"预期再次降临。结合美国最高法院于2026年2月20日裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》大规模加征关税的做法违法，宏观数据的疲软与避险情绪形成合力，推动金银价格在假期尾声强 势收复失地。 后续来看，"去美元化"、" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices and employment data in the U.S., highlighting the mixed signals from strong job growth and a significant downward revision in future employment projections, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Economic Data Summary - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 65,000, marking the largest monthly increase in over a year [2][7]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.3% in January, compared to expectations and the previous value of 4.4% [2][7]. - The U.S. Labor Department revised the total employment growth forecast for 2025 from an initial estimate of 584,000 down to 181,000, indicating an average monthly job addition of approximately 15,000, which would make 2025 the worst year for employment performance since 2003, excluding economic crises [2][7]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the employment data, the U.S. dollar showed some volatility but remained generally stable, which had a limited impact on gold prices [2][7]. - The market is now focusing on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide further guidance on interest rate expectations [2][7]. Geopolitical Context - Tensions in the Gulf region continue, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran failing to reach effective consensus, maintaining the potential for conflict [3][8]. - The sell-off in precious metals is nearing its end, but there remains upward pressure in the market, complicating predictions due to the volatility of geopolitical situations [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices rebounded, closing at $5084.2 per ounce, reflecting a 2.10% increase, while domestic SHFE gold also saw a rise of 1.00% to ¥1127.00 per gram, indicating a recovery in the gold market amid cautious monetary policy signals from the U.S. Treasury Secretary [2][7]. Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that even with Waller as Fed Chair, the balance sheet reduction will not be expedited, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy under the Trump administration [2][7]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 69,000 jobs for January, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4%, slightly below the four-year high of 4.5% reached in November [2][7]. - A significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs is anticipated in the employment data, which could indicate a slower hiring pace [2][7]. Geopolitical Context - Tensions in the Gulf region persist, with ongoing U.S.-Iran-Oman negotiations failing to reach a consensus, maintaining the risk of conflict between the two nations [3][8]. - The sell-off in precious metals is nearing its end, but upward pressure remains in the market, complicating predictions due to geopolitical uncertainties [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by economic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran negotiations [2][6]. Economic Data Summary - COMEX gold prices rose initially but closed at $4986.4 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices fell to 1113.78 yuan per gram, down 0.64% [2][6]. - The ISM reported that the January services PMI was 53.8, unchanged from December and at the highest level since October 2024, indicating better-than-expected performance, although the new orders index showed a slowdown [2][6]. - The ADP reported an addition of 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the market expectation of 45,000, suggesting a weakening labor market which may raise expectations for interest rate cuts [2][6]. Geopolitical Developments Summary - The US announced the resumption of negotiations with Iran, which were previously on the verge of collapse, scheduled for February 6 [2][6]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely tied to geopolitical factors, particularly the US-Iran talks, which may influence the potential for gold prices to strengthen again [2][6]. - The article notes that the volatility in geopolitical situations complicates market predictions, indicating that trends remain unclear and require further observation [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices surged significantly, closing at $5411.0 per ounce, with a 4.47% increase, while domestic SHFE gold also saw a rise of 3.36% to 1196.8 yuan per gram, indicating strong market sentiment towards gold [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the first pause in rate cuts since September 2025, after three consecutive meetings of rate reductions [2][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation risks have somewhat diminished and employment risks are stabilizing, suggesting that rate hikes are not a fundamental assumption for future actions [2][4]. - Powell mentioned that the impact of tariffs has largely been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-induced inflation will dissipate by mid-2026 [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed the commitment to a strong dollar policy, despite the dollar experiencing fluctuations [5]. - The strong performance of gold is attributed to several factors, including ongoing government shutdown threats, potential announcements of a dovish Fed chair by the Trump administration, and heightened geopolitical tensions in Iran [5]. - The continuous breakthroughs in gold prices reflect a prevailing bullish market sentiment, although caution is advised regarding the risks of chasing high prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices continue to rise, closing at $5004.8 per ounce with a 0.50% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices also show a strong performance, closing at 1148.14 yuan per gram with a 1.49% increase [2][4]. Economic Data - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders, the largest growth in six months, following a revised decline of 2.1% in the previous month, driven by orders for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment [2][4]. Market Sentiment - Polymarket data indicates a 78% probability of a new government shutdown in the U.S. by the end of January, a significant increase from less than 10% the previous week [2][4]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East for several days of military exercises, raising concerns about geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran [5]. - Despite low expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in January, geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. dollar credibility are expected to support gold prices in the short term [5]. Future Outlook - The market is advised to remain bullish on gold in the short term, with attention on the upcoming decision regarding the next Federal Reserve chairperson [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the gold market and geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on Trump's announcement regarding Greenland and its impact on market sentiment and gold prices [2][4]. Gold Market Summary - COMEX gold prices rose to $4836.2 per ounce, marking a 1.48% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices closed at 1091.8 yuan per gram, up by 1.09% [2][4]. - The market reacted to Trump's announcement of a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg regarding Greenland, which temporarily postpones the planned tariff increases on European countries set to take effect on February 1 [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The easing of tensions between the U.S. and Europe was interpreted as a "TACO" moment, leading to a recovery in risk sentiment, reflected in a 1.2% increase in the S&P 500 index [2][4]. - The reduction in risk aversion contributed to a decline in gold prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][4]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated, with Trump suggesting he may have selected a candidate for the Fed chair position, hinting at a preference for someone akin to Alan Greenspan [5]. - Reports indicate that the U.S. Supreme Court may reject Trump's request to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve and altering market expectations regarding precious metals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent increase in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions and potential trade conflicts between the U.S. and Europe, particularly following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on European countries opposing the acquisition of Greenland [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market - On January 19, COMEX gold opened high and closed at $4,676.7 per ounce, with an increase of 1.77%. The domestic SHFE gold night market also rose, closing at 1,053.46 yuan per gram, up by 1.35% [2][5]. - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion, with geopolitical issues expected to remain a short-term focus, suggesting that the demand for gold may continue to be strong [2][5]. Group 2: U.S.-Europe Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries opposing the Greenland acquisition, set to increase to 25% starting June 1, 2026. This has prompted European officials to consider retaliatory measures, including potential tariffs on approximately €93 billion worth of U.S. goods [2][5]. - The escalation of trade tensions has led the market to reassess the risk of a prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Europe [2][5]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The currency market is showing signs of "de-dollarization," with the dollar index falling by 0.3% while the euro and pound strengthened. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.26%, and U.S. stock futures declined during the market closure [2][5]. - The weak dollar environment is contributing to the upward trend in gold prices, indicating a continued bullish outlook in the short term [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices and the economic indicators from the United States, highlighting the resilience of consumer spending and the potential impact of geopolitical tensions on gold prices [2][5]. Economic Indicators - COMEX gold prices closed at $4633.9 per ounce, with a gain of 0.76%, while SHFE gold prices closed at 1039.72 yuan per gram, up 0.46% [2][5]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5% [2][5]. - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) indicated that December's existing home sales totaled an annualized 4.35 million units, the highest level since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [2][5]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted improvements in the overall economy across most regions, with stable employment levels and moderate price increases [2][5]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, but a majority supports not lowering rates in January [2][5]. - The slight recovery of the U.S. dollar index suggests that expectations for rate cuts may not provide substantial upward momentum for gold prices [2][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Multiple governments have advised their citizens to evacuate Iran, with former President Trump indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation [2][5]. - The escalating tensions in Iran may keep gold prices strong in the short term, especially in the context of the Federal Reserve's potential pause on interest rate cuts [2][5].