美股市场正经历一场罕见的多方共振式抛售风暴。机构与散户同步撤退，市场情绪急剧恶化。 3月20日，高盛交易台数据显示， 3月20日纯多头基金单日净卖出股票规模高达96亿美元，创下该行自2022年有记录以来的历史最高纪录， 被高盛定性为"5倍 标准差事件"。 与此同时，摩根大通数据显示， 散户投资者本周资金流入环比下滑15%，自伊朗战争爆发以来累计暴跌43%， "逢低买入"策略正遭遇前所未有的信心危机。 这场抛售风暴的背景是中东局势持续动荡。油价高企、市场方向感缺失以及对AI超大规模资本支出的重新审视，共同压制了投资者的风险偏好。 高盛警告，随着四季度末临近及期权到期后交易商伽马敞口进一步恶化，任何向下反转都将被负伽马效应放大，市场仍有空间消化更多恐慌情绪。 历史性抛售：多头基金单日净卖出创纪录 高盛交易台数据显示， 3月20日纯多头基金净卖出规模达96亿美元， 超越此前于2025年7月31日创下的88亿美元纪录，成为该行数据集中有史以来最大单日净 卖出。高盛将其定性为"5倍标准差事件"。 此次抛售覆盖面极广，遍及所有板块，其中科技、媒体与电信（TMT）、消费及工业板块的卖出倾斜度最为显著。高盛交易员Mike W ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental logic of "tight supply and steady demand" remains unchanged, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [5][9]. Group 1: Market Volatility Factors - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: adjustments in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the "negative gamma effect" amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [11][12]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman triggered a reversal in policy expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut forecasts and impacting precious metals prices significantly [13][14][15]. - The "negative gamma effect" exacerbated the situation, where speculative funds, heavily leveraged in the futures and options markets, were forced to liquidate positions as prices fell below key support levels, creating a vicious cycle of selling [17][18]. Group 2: Seasonal and Sentiment Pressures - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, characterized by a demand lull and conservative funding behavior, further intensified the downward pressure on prices, as many downstream industries typically halt operations before the holiday [19][20][21]. - The collective withdrawal of funds from the market, driven by risk aversion, left the non-ferrous sector without sufficient support, compounding the effects of policy and leverage adjustments [22]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term emotional disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain intact, with several sub-sectors showing signs of mispricing and potential for recovery [23]. - The long-term investment logic for precious metals remains solid, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and unresolved U.S. debt issues, with China's central bank increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 74.15 million ounces by December 2025 [24]. - In industrial metals, the supply-demand balance for copper and zinc remains tight, with production in major countries like Chile and Peru falling short of expectations [25]. - Energy metals and minor metals continue to face supply constraints, with lithium prices affected by sentiment and uncertainties in production processes, while rare earth elements like praseodymium and neodymium are experiencing price increases due to tightening global supply [26][27][28]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-induced turbulence has not altered the fundamental supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metal industry, instead providing a rational entry point for medium to long-term investments [31]. - As global energy transitions and de-globalization trends continue, the supply-demand equilibrium in the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to persist, presenting structural investment opportunities [32].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment disturbances, while the fundamental supply-demand balance remains intact, indicating potential mispricing in certain sub-sectors [4][6][17]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector index has experienced a decline of 15% over the past seven trading days following a peak [2]. External Factors Influencing Market - The sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are attributed to three external factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the negative gamma effect amplifying volatility, and seasonal characteristics before the Spring Festival suppressing risk appetite [6][10]. Triggering Events - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a restructuring of policy expectations, causing a significant impact on precious metals, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment in policy expectations has prompted speculative funds to liquidate positions in precious metals, leading to a broader decline across the non-ferrous sector due to a loss of risk appetite [8][11]. Amplifying Mechanisms - The negative gamma effect, combined with high leverage, has triggered a cycle of selling as prices fall below critical support levels, resulting in a cascading effect of forced liquidations [9][10]. Seasonal Influences - Seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival have added pressure to the market, with a typical slowdown in demand and a conservative approach from investors leading to further declines in the non-ferrous sector [10][11]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term disturbances, the core supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metal industry remain unchanged, with several sub-sectors showing signs of being oversold [12][13]. Long-term Investment Opportunities - The long-term investment rationale for precious metals remains strong, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic backdrop for non-ferrous metals like copper and zinc, which continue to exhibit tight supply-demand conditions [13][14]. Specific Metal Insights - The supply constraints for tungsten, antimony, and uranium are expected to provide upward price elasticity, with production controls and increasing demand from nuclear energy contributing to a favorable outlook [14][15]. Conclusion - The recent macroeconomic sentiment-driven volatility presents a rational entry point for long-term investments in the non-ferrous metal sector, as the fundamental supply-demand balance is likely to persist amid ongoing global energy transitions and geopolitical shifts [17][18].

Group 1 - The spot gold price surpassed $5000, increasing by over 2% on the morning of the 4th, with domestic gold jewelry prices rising significantly [1] - Dongwu Securities noted that Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has created a "hawkish" impression, negatively impacting market risk appetite and leading to a downward spiral in precious metals due to high leverage among bulls [1] - The overall precious metals market is expected to maintain a volatile bottoming pattern in the short term, with gold anticipated to have upward momentum after a period of low consolidation [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) had a 0.64% increase, with notable gains from stocks such as Hunan Gold (3.11%) and Huayou Cobalt (3.03%) [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.37%, ranking it among the top performers across all primary industries. Precious metals surged by 18.02%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials declined [14][1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility in precious metals due to a decline in risk appetite and negative gamma effects, leading to significant fluctuations in prices [1][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed with a 3.37% increase, surpassing the index by 3.81 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals rose by 18.02%, industrial metals increased by 5.74%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials saw declines of 1.09%, 8.17%, and 5.12% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The demand from downstream sectors is declining due to the Spring Festival effect, leading to a rise in global copper inventories. As of January 30, LME copper was priced at $13,071 per ton, down 0.44% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose by 2.31% to 103,680 CNY per ton [2][30] - **Aluminum**: Prices fluctuated due to rising natural gas prices overseas. As of January 30, LME aluminum was priced at $3,136 per ton, down 1.20%, while SHFE aluminum increased by 1.11% to 24,560 CNY per ton [3][35] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,370 per ton, up 3.09%, and SHFE zinc at 25,835 CNY per ton, up 5.08% [38] - **Tin**: Tin prices fell, with LME tin at $50,600 per ton, down 10.61%, and SHFE tin at 409,000 CNY per ton, down 4.79% [42] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price of gold on COMEX was $4,907.50 per ounce, down 1.52%, while SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to 1,161.42 CNY per gram. The market is facing downward pressure due to rising inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [4][45] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decline in market risk appetite, exacerbating the volatility in precious metals [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.37%, ranking it among the top performers across all primary industries. The precious metals segment surged by 18.02%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials declined [1][14]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility in precious metals due to a decline in market risk appetite and negative gamma effects, leading to significant fluctuations in prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed with a 3.37% increase, surpassing the index by 3.81 percentage points [14]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals rose by 18.02%, while small metals, energy metals, and new materials saw declines of 1.09%, 8.17%, and 5.12%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The demand from downstream sectors is declining due to the Spring Festival effect, leading to a rise in global copper inventories. As of January 30, LME copper was priced at $13,071 per ton, down 0.44% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose to 103,680 CNY per ton, up 2.31% [2][30]. - **Aluminum**: Prices fluctuated due to rising overseas natural gas prices. As of January 30, LME aluminum was priced at $3,136 per ton, down 1.20%, while SHFE aluminum was at 24,560 CNY per ton, up 1.11% [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices increased, with LME zinc at $3,370 per ton, up 3.09%, and SHFE zinc at 25,835 CNY per ton, up 5.08% [38]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell, with LME tin at $50,600 per ton, down 10.61%, and SHFE tin at 409,000 CNY per ton, down 4.79% [42]. Precious Metals - The report notes that precious metals are under pressure due to rising inflation data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. As of January 30, COMEX gold was priced at $4,907.50 per ounce, down 1.52%, while SHFE gold was at 1,161.42 CNY per gram, up 4.10% [4][45]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decline in market risk appetite, exacerbating the volatility in precious metals [4][46]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories have reached their highest levels since May 2025, with LME copper stocks at 175,000 tons, up 1.91% week-on-week [31]. - Aluminum inventories increased, with SHFE stocks rising by 10.01% to 216,800 tons [35]. - Zinc inventories decreased, with LME stocks at 110,000 tons, down 1.35% [38].