来源：第一财经日报 [ 连曾支持特朗普竞选的亿万富翁、对冲基金经理阿克曼称，如果强行压低利率，导致贷款机构无法覆 盖潜在损失并获得合理的股本回报，银行将不得不大规模取消消费者的信用卡服务。这将迫使数百万消 费者转向不受监管的"高利贷"市场，面临比现有体系更恶劣的借贷条款。 ] 据新华社报道，近日，美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）展开刑事调 查，调查涉及美联储办公大楼的翻修工程等。 "周五（9日），司法部向美联储送达了大陪审团传票，威胁要就我去年6月在参议院银行委员会的证词 提起刑事诉讼。"鲍威尔在一份声明中表示。 鲍威尔还称，他对法治和民主制度中的问责制怀有深切的敬意，任何人都不应凌驾于法律之上，但这项 史无前例的行动，应当置于本届政府持续施压与威胁的更广阔背景中来审视。 "此次新威胁实际上既非针对去年6月的证词，也非针对美联储大楼翻修工程，更与国会监督职能无关， 这些不过是借口。"鲍威尔表示，这关乎美联储能否继续依据证据和经济状况制定利率，抑或货币政策 将受政治压力或胁迫左右。 据新华社报道，他还表示，此次调查不仅关乎个人是否"清白"，更关乎美联储是否能够继续根据经济 ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战 ——解构美国系列第十六篇 要点 核心观点： 为什么我们认为特朗普房改将难以提振美国房地产？在 2024 至 2025 年美联储 大幅降息背景下，由于房贷利率降幅有限，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期， 仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。展望看，随着 2026 年美国中期选举临近，"特朗普 房改"呼之欲出，我们推测大致会沿着降低房贷成本、激活供给市场、降息三条 路径，但考虑到大幅降息难以有效传导至房贷利率，政策端亦受立法、司法等约 束，叠加关税风险溢价和建设周期滞后，房地产供需结构或难以在短期逆转，基 准判断是 2026 年美国房地产维持弱复苏状态。若想要美国地产周期出现明显复 苏，我们测算 5%左右的房贷利率或是美国地产周期的启动指标，若房贷利率降 至合意区间，对应的 10 年期美债利率或在 3.2%-3.3%左右。 在 2024 至 2025 年美联储大幅降息背景下，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期， 仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。 需求端方面，受高房价、高房贷利率及可负担性危机影响，居民购房和按揭需求 持续走低，2025 年新房和成屋销售量低于 ...

分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 总量研究 2026 年特朗普将如何启动住房改革？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 特朗普释放和解信号，中国掌握谈判主导权 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十三篇（2025- 04-27） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 减税法案顺利落地，可以对冲关税压力吗？ ——解构美国系列第十三篇（2025-07-04） 近期美债收益率为何再次上行？——解构美 国系列第十二篇（2025-05-16） 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十二篇（2025-04-10） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政 ...

美联储降息如同一剂宏观经济的"调节阀"，其核心目标是在通胀与增长间寻求平衡。对普通人而言，它并非简单的"利好"或"利空"，而是一次 利益的再分配：在借贷者与储蓄者之间，在不同资产类别的持有者之间。理解这一信号，有助于我们审视自身的资产负债表——是时候为房贷 再融资，还是调整投资组合？关键在于认清自己在经济周期中所处的位置，从而做出更明智的财务决策。 对投资者而言，影响则更为复杂。 理论上，降息降低企业融资成本，提振经济活力，中长期利好股市，尤其是对利率敏感的增长型科技股和 房地产板块。历史数据显示，标普500指数在美联储启动降息周期后的6-12个月内，通常能实现正回报（来源：嘉信理财市场分析）。债券价 格则与利率走势相反，现有债券价格往往上涨。但市场也常将紧急降息解读为应对经济衰退的预警信号，从而引发短期波动。此外，降息通常 施压美元汇率，计划海外旅游、留学或海淘的消费者将面临更高的成本。 首先，背负贷款者将直接受益。 美联储降息通常引导市场利率下行，直接影响与基准利率挂钩的浮动利率贷款。例如，信用卡循环利息、汽 车贷款及部分学生贷款利率可能随之降低，减轻债务负担。最为显著的是住房市场，30年期固定抵押贷款利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The four major banks in South Korea have increased household loans by 7.8 trillion KRW this year, exceeding their annual loan growth target by 32.7% [1] Group 1: Household Loan Growth - As of November 20, the total household loan increase from KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori banks reached 7.8 trillion KRW [1] - This growth surpasses the banks' initial loan increment target set at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Loan Restrictions and Market Impact - Banks are currently restricting housing-related loans as part of their planned measures [1] - If housing prices in the capital region do not decline as expected, banks may find it difficult to ease loan requirements even when setting new targets for household loans next year [1] - Despite the restrictions, household loan volumes are expected to increase compared to the previous month [1] Group 3: Shift in Loan Types - Due to various real estate and household loan suppression policies, there has been a significant rise in credit loans used for paying housing deposits [1] - A considerable amount of funds is also flowing into domestic and international stock markets for investment purposes [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Banks are accelerating the disposal of debt properties due to multiple considerations including capital, profitability, and market risks. This includes selling properties obtained from non-performing loans on platforms like JD and Alibaba, which helps avoid legal disputes [3][4] - The current economic environment pressures banks to dispose of these assets quickly to reduce capital consumption, supplement profits, and mitigate risks associated with fluctuating real estate prices [3][4] - The scale and impairment provisions of debt assets among listed banks show significant differentiation, with some banks having higher levels of non-performing assets and varying impairment ratios [4][5] Summary by Sections Section on Debt Property Disposal - Banks are expediting the sale of debt properties to alleviate capital pressure, as regulations require disposal within two years to avoid punitive risk weights [3] - The new capital management guidelines propose extending the disposal period to five years and reducing risk weights for non-self-use properties beyond the disposal period [3][8] Section on Asset Characteristics - The characteristics of debt assets among listed banks vary significantly, with some banks like ICBC and Minsheng Bank having higher levels of debt assets and differing asset structures [4][9] - The impairment provision ratios for debt assets also differ, with some banks fully provisioning while others have lower ratios, indicating potential under-provisioning issues [4][5] Section on Risk Parameters - The risk exposure and default parameters for housing collateral loans indicate that the majority of banks have low default probabilities, particularly in first and second-tier cities [5][15] - The analysis shows that higher collateral values correlate with lower default probabilities, suggesting that banks with significant exposure in major cities may face manageable risks [5][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of using personal business loans (operating loans) to replace housing mortgage loans, which allows borrowers to benefit from lower interest rates, but raises concerns about regulatory compliance and potential risks in the banking sector [1][3]. Group 1: Operating Loans and Market Dynamics - Operating loans have become a popular alternative for individuals looking to reduce their mortgage payments, with rates as low as 0.795% after subsidies, compared to traditional mortgage rates [1][4]. - The interest rates for operating loans have dropped to 3% or below, creating a significant price difference compared to residential mortgage rates, prompting intermediaries to promote these loans aggressively [1][3]. - Some intermediaries are facilitating the conversion of high-interest mortgage loans to lower-interest operating loans, even without proper business licenses, which raises compliance issues [1][4]. Group 2: Regulatory Concerns and Risks - Regulatory bodies have noted the misuse of operating loans for real estate purchases, with instances of borrowers being misclassified as business owners to secure loans [5][6]. - Recent penalties have been imposed on banks for improper management of operating loans, highlighting vulnerabilities in their internal risk control systems [6][7]. - There is a growing concern that banks may not adequately assess borrowers' actual repayment capabilities, leading to increased default risks, especially as many operating loans are set to mature [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The ongoing decline in property values, as indicated by a continuous drop in housing prices for 41 months, poses a risk to the collateral backing these loans, potentially leading to a cycle of defaults and asset devaluation [7][8]. - The pressure on banks to manage maturing operating loans could exacerbate market conditions, leading to a vicious cycle of asset depreciation and increased defaults [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a reversal in the positive signs of recovery in the U.S. real estate market, as mortgage applications for home purchases and refinancing have declined for the second consecutive week [1][2] - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.2% decrease in the home purchase application index and a 7.7% drop in the refinancing index for the week ending October 3, bringing both metrics back to early September levels [1][2] - The combined value of these two indices fell by 12.7% last week and then decreased by an additional 4.7% this week, marking the largest two-day drop since April [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight decrease in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.43%, the previous week's significant increase has caused panic among potential homebuyers and homeowners looking to secure lower borrowing costs [2] - This situation is hindering the early recovery of the real estate market and may prolong a prolonged period of stagnation that has lasted for years [2] - The MBA survey, conducted weekly since 1990, covers over 75% of all retail housing mortgage applications in the U.S., drawing data from mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and savings institutions [2]

Group 1 - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the current interest rate level, reflecting its policy dilemma between a weak labor market and persistent inflation pressures [1] - Early initiation of a rate-cutting cycle could further elevate inflation expectations, while maintaining high rates for an extended period may suppress consumption and investment, increasing economic downturn risks [1] - For ordinary investors, this policy stance suggests that interest rates on savings products may remain stable in the short term, but mortgage rates will stay high, making repayment pressures difficult to alleviate [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate shifted from an upward trend to a downward trend, with the "Evening Star" pattern prompting a drop below 1.3500, increasing the likelihood of testing the convergence of the 100-day and 50-day moving averages around 1.3477/63 [2] - A daily closing price below this convergence would clear the path for testing the low of 1.3332 from September 3, while a closing price above 1.3600 could reinforce the rationale for challenging the annual peak of 1.3788 [2]

Group 1 - South Korea's household credit reached 1952.8 trillion won in Q2, with a month-on-month growth of 1.3% in June, significantly up from 0.1% in March, and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, the highest since June 2022 [1] - The Bank of Korea's Governor Lee Chang-yong emphasized the "high uncertainty" facing the economy, particularly due to challenging trade conditions and potential risks from US tariff negotiations impacting the export-driven economy [1] - Rising overdue repayment rates among SMEs and local developers indicate increasing debt repayment pressure in certain sectors, reflecting growing financial stability risks domestically [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea will hold a crucial monetary policy meeting on August 28 to assess multiple factors, including economic growth potential, inflation trends, and financial system vulnerabilities [2] - Governor Lee stated that if economic data meets expectations, there is a possibility of resuming a monetary easing cycle, provided the financial system remains stable [2] - Analysts note a policy dilemma for the Bank of Korea, balancing the need to stimulate domestic demand through rate cuts against high household debt levels and rising default risks in specific industries [2]