Recent Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce and COMEX futures falling to $3,299.70 per ounce, marking a nearly 1.5% decrease [1] - Domestic gold prices have also adjusted, with wholesale market prices in Shenzhen decreasing from 792 yuan per gram to 756 yuan per gram, a drop of over 4% [3] Factors Influencing Gold Price Fluctuations - Short-term drivers include a stronger US dollar and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have diminished gold's appeal [4] - Easing geopolitical risks, such as President Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and the lack of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine situation, have reduced safe-haven demand [5] - Technical adjustments following a rapid price increase have also contributed to the recent downturn [6] Market Reactions and Consumer Trends - Consumer purchasing behavior is showing a divide, with smaller jewelry items gaining popularity while larger purchases, like wedding gold, are being approached with caution due to high prices [8] - There is an increase in gold recycling as some holders are selling old jewelry to cash in on the price drop [8] Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors are waiting for lower entry points, such as below 700 yuan per gram, while institutions view the current adjustment as a buying opportunity [9] - Wall Street quantitative funds are leaning towards short positions, whereas Asian investors are buying on dips [10] Future Price Predictions - Short-term forecasts indicate that gold will fluctuate within a range of $3,300 to $3,350, with $3,320 as a key support level; a drop below this could lead to a decline to $3,280 [11] - Long-term projections from institutions like Goldman Sachs suggest that gold prices could reach between $3,500 and $4,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank purchases, normalized geopolitical risks, and weakened dollar credibility [12]

Group 1: Core Reasons for Gold Price Decline - Strengthening US Dollar and Federal Reserve Policy: The rebound of the US dollar index has decreased the attractiveness of gold, as the market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts due to the Federal Reserve's high rate expectations [1] - Increased Rate Hike Expectations: If the US April CPI data exceeds expectations, it may lead to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - Easing Geopolitical Risks: Progress in US-China trade negotiations and a reduction in concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict have diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Factors - Technical Sell-off: Gold prices breaking below key support levels (e.g., $3300/oz) have triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs, creating a vicious cycle of "sell more as prices drop" [5] - Profit-Taking by Bulls: Investors have chosen to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, leading to increased short-term selling pressure [6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Data Impact - Positive US Economic Data: Strong non-farm payroll data and a rebound in manufacturing PMI have alleviated recession fears, making risk assets like stocks more attractive and prompting funds to exit the gold market [8] - Rising Real Interest Rates: Increasing US Treasury yields have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing investors towards higher-yielding bonds or other assets [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Slowing Central Bank Gold Purchases: While central banks have been increasing gold holdings in the long term, a short-term reduction in purchases (e.g., China pausing gold buying) may exacerbate market volatility [9] - Market Speculation: Some investors using leverage or loans for gold trading have been forced to liquidate positions due to price declines, further amplifying market volatility [10] Group 5: Other Contributing Factors - Normalization of Gold Premiums: The previous concerns over US tariffs on gold that led to inflated premiums are dissipating, reducing arbitrage opportunities and causing a decline in physical demand [11] - Consumer Demand Hesitance: With falling gold prices, consumer expectations of further declines have led to a temporary freeze in purchasing intentions, resulting in weak short-term demand [12]