白宫在2月20日正式确认，美国总统特朗普将于3月31日至4月2日对中国进行为期三天的访问。这将是特朗普自2017年首次访华以来，时隔九年再次踏上中国 的土地。本应是中美关系出现缓和迹象的关键时刻，然而，实际情况却充满了许多不确定性。特朗普团队表示，此行将重点讨论贸易问题，包括延续去年的 贸易休战协议，并努力避免新一轮的关税冲突。中国外交部发言人回应称，双方正在就具体细节进行沟通，但强调这一切都取决于美方的态度。在2月19日 的一个内部会议上，特朗普提到此行时表示，他希望中方能够安排隆重的欢迎仪式，并回忆起2017年访华时盛大的仪仗队。 与此同时，美国最高法院于同一天作出了判决，以6比3的投票结果裁定特朗普政府基于特定法律征收的全球关税无效。这些关税从一开始就缺乏法律依据， 涉及的资金约为1750亿美元，其中部分已被用于国内支出，目前面临着退款要求。虽然法院的九名大法官中有六人是共和党任命的，其中三人由特朗普提 名，但他们依然投下了反对票，这反映出特朗普的政策支持基础正在出现动摇。由于此裁决无法上诉，特朗普在2026年中期选举之前陷入了被动的局面，迫 切需要通过外交成果来转移外界的注意力。恰逢此时，特朗普访华的 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4084 | +5（+0.12%） | 4090 | +7（+0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2735 | -10（-0.36%） | 2738 | +2 （+0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1049 | -3.25（-0.31%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 301.3 | -1.0（-0.33%） | n a | | | | | 较昨-20至-10； | 豆粕 （43%） | 现货基差M2605+370， 较昨-10； | 12-1月 | | | 山东 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price remains resilient despite the easing of negative factors such as the U.S. government's resumption of trade negotiations, with current trading around $4,171.89 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.03% [1][2]. Market Analysis - The U.S. government's resumption of operations and Trump's proposed tariff exemptions have significantly reduced risk aversion, weakening the support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. - The market's expectation of a potential interest rate cut has increased, with an 80% probability currently priced in, yet hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials continue to suppress these expectations [2][3]. - The previous concerns regarding a "government shutdown" have been alleviated, leading to a decrease in geopolitical risk demand for gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong performance, rising for four consecutive days, despite various negative factors, indicating unusual resilience [4]. - The current price range of $4,150 to $4,250 is critical, with market participants being cautious about chasing higher prices [7]. - If selling pressure emerges, gold could test support levels around $4,140 to $4,150, with a potential drop to the $4,000 mark if these levels are breached [7][8]. Future Outlook - There is a possibility of profit-taking in the coming days or weeks, which could lead to downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - If the upward momentum continues and resistance levels are broken, targets of $4,300 and $4,400 could be reached, potentially marking new historical highs for gold [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of critical mineral resources in U.S. foreign policy during Trump's second presidential term, highlighting the urgency to reduce dependence on China for these resources [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Dependency on Critical Minerals - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for critical minerals, with eight out of nine minerals identified as crucial for the economy having China as their sole or primary source [1]. - Samarium is noted as the most critical mineral, essential for aircraft and missile magnets, with China dominating the entire supply chain from extraction to manufacturing [1][3]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Agreements - In response to China's export controls on rare earths, the U.S. has been actively seeking alternative sources and signed several agreements, including an $8.5 billion deal with Australia for critical minerals [3][5]. - The U.S. government announced a $1.2 billion investment in two rare earth startups and established a critical mineral agreement with Kazakhstan, which has recently discovered significant rare earth deposits [5]. Group 3: Long-term Challenges - Experts suggest that establishing a secure and independent supply chain for critical minerals in the U.S. could take 10 to 20 years due to underdeveloped production infrastructure in countries like Australia [3][5]. - Despite recent agreements and investments, the U.S. is unlikely to achieve self-sufficiency in critical minerals within a year, indicating a long-term challenge ahead [5]. Group 4: Broader Geopolitical Context - The article emphasizes that mineral resources have become a powerful bargaining chip in U.S. foreign policy, influencing negotiations with various countries, including those in Africa and Central Asia [5][6]. - The U.S. involvement in peace agreements, such as the one between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is also seen as a strategic move to counter China's influence in resource-rich regions [6].

Market Overview - On August 5, the Hong Kong stock market saw a rebound, with net inflows from southbound funds reaching approximately HKD 23.426 billion, the highest single-day net purchase since April 9[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.60, up 0.96% for the day and 6.17% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24902.53, up 0.68% for the day and 24.26% year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - The paper industry showed strong performance, with Chenming Paper rising nearly 15% and Nine Dragons Paper increasing over 7% due to a fourth round of price hikes since July[9] - Biopharmaceutical stocks surged, with Junshi Biosciences up over 33%, following the establishment of a new pricing mechanism for newly listed drugs by the National Healthcare Security Administration[9] - Gaming stocks generally rose, with Kwan Hung Holdings increasing nearly 8%, as Macau's July gaming revenue reached MOP 22.125 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.14% and the S&P 500 down 0.49%, amid concerns over economic conditions and weak service sector data[9] - The ISM reported that the U.S. services PMI for July was 50.1, below expectations, indicating near stagnation in growth[9][10] Company Highlights - Palantir's stock rose 7.85%, reaching a market cap of over USD 400 billion after reporting quarterly revenue exceeding USD 1 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase[13] - AMD's stock fell 1.40% after reporting Q2 revenue of USD 7.69 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase, but net profit decreased by 31%[13] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index could reach 45,000 points by the end of the year, driven by improved corporate earnings outlooks and foreign capital inflows[9]