10月6日至7日，世界贸易组织在瑞士日内瓦召开总理事会2025年度第四次会议。中方主动设置议题，呼 吁世贸组织成员维护多边贸易体制的核心价值和原则，集体应对当前日益加剧的贸易动荡局势，共同维 护多边贸易体制。 中国常驻世贸组织代表李詠箑表示，这是中方今年第4次在总理事会会议上设置"贸易动荡加剧和世贸组 织应对"议程，因为当前全球经贸局势动荡仍然不断加剧。美国贸易政策扰乱供应链和全球市场，已经 成为全球不稳定的主要根源；美方以单边关税胁迫一些成员达成双边协定，影响第三方的合法权益，导 致一种"基于实力"的贸易关系正在逐渐侵蚀"基于规则"的多边贸易体制。中方对此表示强烈关注。 李詠箑表示，为应对不断加剧贸易动荡局势，中方提出三点建议：一是加强透明度和监督；二是集体重 申对以规则为基础的多边贸易体制的坚守和承诺；三是采取切实行动，推动世贸组织取得务实成果。 欧盟、巴西、澳大利亚、瑞士、巴基斯坦等多方发言呼吁维护世贸组织基本原则并推动世贸组织改革。 欧盟对基于规则的多边贸易体制遭到"基于实力"的贸易关系侵蚀表达严重关注。澳大利亚、新西兰、韩 国等呼吁世贸组织秘书处对单边关税和有关双边协定加强监督，鼓励达成双边协定的成 ...

日本的目标是到2030年将农林水产品和食品出口额从2024年的1.5万亿日元增至5万亿日元，牛肉和海鲜 对实现这一目标至关重要。今年6月底，中国已经准备恢复日本海产品进口。而牛肉出口方面，目标是 从2024年到2030年增长70%。 熊本县是日本第四大肉牛产地，该地对向中国出口牛肉寄予厚望。据信，熊本和上海之间甚至已经开通 了直航，这是熊本县与中国之间的首条直航。 相比之下，日本的神户牛肉营销与流通促进会却不那么兴奋。该协会负责监督日本最著名的和牛品牌之 一神户牛肉的质量和出口，它对于能否建立一个防止假冒牛肉流通的体系表示担忧。 与此同时，一些业内认识还担心相关程序的进度。中国要求进口食品加工和储存的设施必须注册，并且 每件产品都必须提供检验证书，这些手续将会耗费大量时间。 外媒消息显示，中国即将在24年后首次恢复进口日本牛肉，这给萎靡的日本畜牧业带来了希望。 近年来，随着日本国内市场疲软以及美国关税引发的贸易动荡，当地生产商们开始纷纷关注中国巨大的 市场。 据日本外务省称，一项双边动物卫生检疫协议已于7月11日生效，一些日本当地畜牧发公司也收到了关 于中国相关业务的咨询。 中国曾是日本牛肉第三大出口市场，年 ...

上周，现货黄金整体上涨0.6%，尽管此前市场一度押注部分关税威胁将被收回，但最新动向重新引发避险情绪。今日亚市盘中，黄金大幅上涨，一度涨 至3374.69美元，目前在3368美元附近徘徊。 风暴预演！ 上周，美股三大股指均小幅下跌，纳斯达克指数累计跌0.08%，道琼斯工业指数跌1.02%、标普500指数跌0.31%。 消息面上，特朗普传出新动作。 当地时间12日，美国总统特朗普发出两封关税威胁信函，称自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收30%关税。 对此，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间7月13日表示，将把对美国关税的反制措施暂停期延长至8月初，按照此前公布的计划，欧盟方面首轮报复性措施 应在7月14日生效。墨西哥方面则表示，关税"不公平"，将寻求外交方式解决分歧。 至此，特朗普已对24个国家和27个欧盟成员国发布了关税条件。分析称，这些信件引发的贸易动荡，最终都会让美国消费者被迫买单。 此外，关于鲍威尔考虑辞职的消息突然刷屏。 美东时间7月11日，美国联邦住房金融局局长兼房利美和房地美董事会主席比尔·普尔特发表声明称："有报道称美联储主席鲍威尔正在考虑辞职，这将是 对美国的正确决定。"对此，美联储发 ...

美国总统特朗普12日发出两封关税威胁信函，称自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收30% 关税。美国最大的贸易伙伴欧盟当即表示，必要时会予以反制。至此，特朗普已对24个国家和27个欧盟 成员国发布了关税条件。分析称，这些信件引发的贸易动荡，最终都会让美国消费者被迫买单。(央视 新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - Australian consumer confidence has slightly increased due to low interest rates and cooling inflation, despite slow economic growth and ongoing trade tensions, leaving households in a cautious state [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index rose by 0.5% to 92.6 points, although it remains below the neutral line of 100 [1] - Overall consumer sentiment remains in a "cautiously pessimistic" state according to Westpac's macroeconomic forecast head, Matthew Hassan [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered interest rates to 3.85%, marking a two-year low [1] - Recent data indicates slow economic growth expected in the first three months of 2025, with the RBA anticipating a recovery in household spending to drive economic acceleration later this year [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The most promising improvement noted this month is in consumer attitudes towards purchasing commodities, which reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on consumers [1] - The average index for commodity purchases over the past three years is 40 percentage points lower than the historical average [1]

贸易动荡影响的不确定性上升。 新西兰联储在应对全球形势发展方面处于有利位置。 新西兰联储助理主席Silk：新西兰联储需要更多时间来决定利率路径。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial stability amid trade disruptions and highlights the high likelihood of tail events occurring [1] Group 1: Financial Stability - The possibility of tail events remains significantly high, indicating potential risks in the financial markets [1] - Maintaining financial stability is crucial during periods of trade turmoil, which can lead to increased volatility [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Increased defense spending may exacerbate certain fiscal issues, suggesting a need for careful budget management [1] - The potential for abrupt adjustments in fiscal policies could lead to disorderly outcomes, raising concerns for economic stability [1]

Group 1 - The geopolitical and trade turmoil during the initial 100 days of President Trump's second term has caused significant concern among European leaders, marking a departure from previous U.S. government interactions [1] - The European Union is facing increasing uncertainty in two main areas: trade and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with potential tariffs on EU goods and ongoing trade disputes with other partners [1] - European Central Bank policymakers anticipate that economic growth in Europe will be negatively impacted by trade tensions, with inflation effects remaining unclear [1] Group 2 - The Austrian central bank governor highlighted unprecedented uncertainty, indicating that monetary policy decisions may need to be delayed until clarity is achieved [2] - The Dutch central bank governor compared the current uncertainty to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the negative impact of U.S. tariff actions on growth [2] - The acting German finance minister noted that U.S.-European relations are not at a crisis point yet, suggesting that more events are needed to break the existing trust [2] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump's administration have raised alarms in Europe, with EU leaders expressing their commitment to supporting Ukraine while questioning the sustainability of U.S. aid [3] - Kaja Kallas emphasized the need for increased pressure on Russia to facilitate peace in Ukraine, reflecting the urgency of the situation [3] - Trump's initial claims of quickly resolving the conflict were retracted, and while discussions for a ceasefire were initiated, progress has been limited [3]