美国总统特朗普12日发出两封关税威胁信函，称自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收30% 关税。美国最大的贸易伙伴欧盟当即表示，必要时会予以反制。至此，特朗普已对24个国家和27个欧盟 成员国发布了关税条件。分析称，这些信件引发的贸易动荡，最终都会让美国消费者被迫买单。(央视 新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - Australian consumer confidence has slightly increased due to low interest rates and cooling inflation, despite slow economic growth and ongoing trade tensions, leaving households in a cautious state [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index rose by 0.5% to 92.6 points, although it remains below the neutral line of 100 [1] - Overall consumer sentiment remains in a "cautiously pessimistic" state according to Westpac's macroeconomic forecast head, Matthew Hassan [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered interest rates to 3.85%, marking a two-year low [1] - Recent data indicates slow economic growth expected in the first three months of 2025, with the RBA anticipating a recovery in household spending to drive economic acceleration later this year [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The most promising improvement noted this month is in consumer attitudes towards purchasing commodities, which reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on consumers [1] - The average index for commodity purchases over the past three years is 40 percentage points lower than the historical average [1]

贸易动荡影响的不确定性上升。 新西兰联储在应对全球形势发展方面处于有利位置。 新西兰联储助理主席Silk：新西兰联储需要更多时间来决定利率路径。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial stability amid trade disruptions and highlights the high likelihood of tail events occurring [1] Group 1: Financial Stability - The possibility of tail events remains significantly high, indicating potential risks in the financial markets [1] - Maintaining financial stability is crucial during periods of trade turmoil, which can lead to increased volatility [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Increased defense spending may exacerbate certain fiscal issues, suggesting a need for careful budget management [1] - The potential for abrupt adjustments in fiscal policies could lead to disorderly outcomes, raising concerns for economic stability [1]

Group 1 - The geopolitical and trade turmoil during the initial 100 days of President Trump's second term has caused significant concern among European leaders, marking a departure from previous U.S. government interactions [1] - The European Union is facing increasing uncertainty in two main areas: trade and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with potential tariffs on EU goods and ongoing trade disputes with other partners [1] - European Central Bank policymakers anticipate that economic growth in Europe will be negatively impacted by trade tensions, with inflation effects remaining unclear [1] Group 2 - The Austrian central bank governor highlighted unprecedented uncertainty, indicating that monetary policy decisions may need to be delayed until clarity is achieved [2] - The Dutch central bank governor compared the current uncertainty to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the negative impact of U.S. tariff actions on growth [2] - The acting German finance minister noted that U.S.-European relations are not at a crisis point yet, suggesting that more events are needed to break the existing trust [2] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump's administration have raised alarms in Europe, with EU leaders expressing their commitment to supporting Ukraine while questioning the sustainability of U.S. aid [3] - Kaja Kallas emphasized the need for increased pressure on Russia to facilitate peace in Ukraine, reflecting the urgency of the situation [3] - Trump's initial claims of quickly resolving the conflict were retracted, and while discussions for a ceasefire were initiated, progress has been limited [3]