Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to rising raw material prices and negative TC fees in the mining end. The supply of domestic refined copper may decline slightly as domestic copper concentrate port inventories are low and raw material supply is relatively tight. The downstream export demand may decline due to high tariffs on copper semi - products imposed by the US, while domestic demand is expected to recover due to macro - policy support and the approaching traditional consumption season. The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level and gradually decrease with the recovery of consumption. The industry outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows red bars converging with both lines above the 0 - axis. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main futures contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,015 dollars/ton, up 34.5 dollars. The main contract inter - month spread is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 192,109 lots, up 12,044 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 5,870 lots, down 778 lots. The LME copper inventory is 158,875 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) cathode copper inventory is 79,748 tons, down 1,950 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 19,501 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,520 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,455 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 56.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is 410 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 69.58 dollars/ton, up 16.69 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC fee for domestic copper smelters is - 41.48 dollars/kiloton, down 0.33 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,440 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,140 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee for crude copper in the South is 700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in the North, it is 700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.25%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.18%, down 0.82%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option is 11.08%, down 0.0017. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.35, up 0.0006 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7, below the market expectation of 49, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, but the output index fell back into the contraction range. The employment index rose, and the price - paid index declined. After the data release, the probability of a September interest - rate cut rose above 90%, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August showed a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and a net outright reverse - repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan, with no open - market treasury bond trading. - US President Trump said he would appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case and warned of a "perhaps unprecedented shock" if he loses the appeal. - The eurozone CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2%. The core CPI declined slightly, and the service - price increase slowed down. An ECB hawkish official said the ECB should suspend interest - rate cuts due to upward inflation risks. - On September 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two sides signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation documents in various fields [2].

Group 1 - As of July 21, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 947.06 tons of gold, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On July 21, spot gold rebounded strongly, briefly surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking the highest level in a month, and ultimately closing at $3,396.93 per ounce, up $47.09 or 1.41% [2] - The significant drop in the US dollar, which fell to a low of 97.70, was a key factor driving the rebound in non-US currencies and spot gold [2] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September, despite speculation about earlier rate cuts due to rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased gold's safe-haven demand, with the US Commerce Secretary expressing confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU before the August 1 tariff deadline [3] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that high inflation expectations and strong economic data are influencing the anticipated number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above the midpoint [3] - The next upward target for gold is the $3,400 level, with a confirmed breakout potentially opening up further upward space towards the static resistance level of around $3,440 [3] - The short-term support level for gold is near $3,330, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Core Insights - The White House has recognized that the United States is a net exporter in the aerospace sector [1] - The U.S. is currently facing a complex tariff situation that the administration is addressing [1] Industry Summary - The aerospace industry is highlighted as a significant area of export strength for the U.S. economy [1] - Ongoing tariff complexities may impact the competitiveness of U.S. aerospace exports [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Bank of America, Moynihan, stated that companies are hoping for a quick resolution regarding the tariff situation [1]

Group 1 - Blackstone Group plans to invest $500 billion in Europe over the next decade [1] - CEO Schwarzman expects policy changes to drive an increase in Europe's economic growth rate [1] - Blackstone will also begin investments in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Schwarzman anticipates that the tariff situation will be resolved within 6 to 9 months [1] - He stated that tariffs have a minimal impact on inflation and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration may lead to increased risk of broader sell-offs in risk assets [1] Group 1: Tariff Situation - Trump announced the postponement of a 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9, which improved market risk sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The EU is the largest trading partner of the US, and escalating tensions could easily trigger a wider sell-off in risk assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Malaysia is not in a hurry to revise its economic growth forecast and will monitor the developments regarding the customs situation [1] Group 1 - The central bank is currently observing the situation before making any adjustments to economic projections [1]