Group 1 - As of July 21, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 947.06 tons of gold, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On July 21, spot gold rebounded strongly, briefly surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking the highest level in a month, and ultimately closing at $3,396.93 per ounce, up $47.09 or 1.41% [2] - The significant drop in the US dollar, which fell to a low of 97.70, was a key factor driving the rebound in non-US currencies and spot gold [2] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September, despite speculation about earlier rate cuts due to rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased gold's safe-haven demand, with the US Commerce Secretary expressing confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU before the August 1 tariff deadline [3] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that high inflation expectations and strong economic data are influencing the anticipated number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising above the midpoint [3] - The next upward target for gold is the $3,400 level, with a confirmed breakout potentially opening up further upward space towards the static resistance level of around $3,440 [3] - The short-term support level for gold is near $3,330, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Core Insights - The White House has recognized that the United States is a net exporter in the aerospace sector [1] - The U.S. is currently facing a complex tariff situation that the administration is addressing [1] Industry Summary - The aerospace industry is highlighted as a significant area of export strength for the U.S. economy [1] - Ongoing tariff complexities may impact the competitiveness of U.S. aerospace exports [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Bank of America, Moynihan, stated that companies are hoping for a quick resolution regarding the tariff situation [1]

Group 1 - Blackstone Group plans to invest $500 billion in Europe over the next decade [1] - CEO Schwarzman expects policy changes to drive an increase in Europe's economic growth rate [1] - Blackstone will also begin investments in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - Schwarzman anticipates that the tariff situation will be resolved within 6 to 9 months [1] - He stated that tariffs have a minimal impact on inflation and economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration may lead to increased risk of broader sell-offs in risk assets [1] Group 1: Tariff Situation - Trump announced the postponement of a 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9, which improved market risk sentiment and reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The EU is the largest trading partner of the US, and escalating tensions could easily trigger a wider sell-off in risk assets [1]