Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties due to the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, with a 98.9% probability of a rate cut indicated by CME FedWatch [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices surpassed $4,320, and gold ETF (518800) increased by 2.38% [1] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and political deadlock are eroding the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1] - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, continue to increase gold reserves, with a reported 7.406 million ounces as of the end of September, marking an increase of approximately 40,000 ounces month-over-month [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider gold ETF (518800) for direct investment in physical gold, which has seen a significant increase in scale, growing over 5 billion yuan in the past week [2] - The gold stock ETF (517400) covers the entire gold industry chain, including mining, refining, and sales, and is expected to benefit from new consumption trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have returned to $4,300, with the gold ETF (518800) rising over 2.4% and a net inflow of over 5.5 billion yuan in the past 20 days, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. government shutdowns and political polarization [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown reflects long-term issues of political polarization and fiscal sustainability, which may continue to disrupt the market [1] - The ongoing government shutdown and political deadlock are gradually eroding the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The trend of central bank gold purchases continues, with China's central bank reporting a gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces at the end of September, an increase of approximately 40,000 ounces month-over-month, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - China's central bank is actively promoting diversification of international reserves and dynamically adjusting gold reserves [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The backdrop of excessive money supply and monetization of fiscal deficits is challenging the dollar's credit system [1] - Global geopolitical instability is driving the demand for diversified asset reserves, with gold being favored as a safe asset [1] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that factors such as the Federal Reserve potentially entering a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization will provide support for gold prices [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Short-term volatility in gold prices may pose a risk of correction, and investors are advised to avoid chasing short-term highs while focusing on long-term investment value [1] - Recommended investment options include the gold ETF (518800) with over 27 billion yuan in size, which directly invests in physical gold, and the gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1]

Group 1 - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia experienced a fatal landslide, leading to a long-term disruption in global copper supply [1][3] - The incident resulted in the death of two workers, with five still missing, and production is expected to not return to pre-accident levels until 2027, with a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold output for 2026 [3] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of its expected production before 2029, indicating a significant impact on the global copper supply chain [3] Group 2 - The copper market has been facing frequent disruptions this year, with aging production facilities and declining resource endowments being major obstacles [3] - The supply-demand balance for copper is expected to remain tight, with actual production often falling short of optimistic forecasts due to various disturbances [3] - The onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to benefit metal prices, including copper, silver, gold, and other strategic metals [4] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) has seen a net inflow for ten consecutive days, reflecting growing interest in the mining and metals sector amid the current market conditions [1][6] - The mining ETF tracks the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metal mining companies, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources in the context of global competition [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider various ETFs focused on non-ferrous metals, including those linked to the China Securities Index for broader exposure [6]

Group 1 - The long-term outlook indicates that the dollar credit system is under challenge due to excessive monetary issuance and the monetization of fiscal deficits, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, providing upward momentum for precious metals [1] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, reporting a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, with an increase of 70,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales from the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, reflecting significant industry concentration characteristics [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Initiated Link A (021673) [1]