交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美联储委员接连放鹰 金银价格高位震荡 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 逻辑分析 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 2020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02 2024-01-02 2025-01-02 沪金指数持仓和成交量 沪金增仓量 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1月2日 3月1日 4月30日 7月1日 8月29日 11月3日 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 -40000 -30000 -20 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GAAP loss from continuing operations of $0.13 per common share and distributable earnings were a loss of $0.94 per common share, with $0.04 per common share excluding realized losses on asset sales [13] - Net interest income declined to $10.5 million due to a $1.4 billion reduction in the CRE portfolio and $40 million of negative credit migration [13] - Book value per share was $10.28 at quarter end, down $0.16 from June 30, primarily due to the dividend covered shortfall [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core portfolio totaled 1,120 loans with an unpaid principal balance of $5.4 billion, with delinquencies increasing to 5.9% of the total [5] - The small business lending platform originated $175 million of SBA 7(a) loans, 50% below the quarterly target, generating $11 million in net income [10] - The non-core portfolio had an $8 million drag on earnings, with $503 million liquidated in the quarter [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Portland mixed-use asset represented 14% of quarter-end equity, with a net operating loss of $330,000 and occupancy of 48% [8] - The office and retail space in the Portland asset is currently 28% leased and has hit break-even [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning to financial health and profitability through portfolio yield rehabilitation, growth in small business lending, and management of 2026 debt maturities [4] - The strategy includes reducing CRE loan exposure and accelerating sales of non-performing loans and REO positions [11] - The company plans to evaluate the dividend in December based on progress in the business plan and liquidity levels [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in refinancing pending debt maturities and emphasized a conservative approach to new investments and dividend policy [11][50] - The company expects to utilize unencumbered assets and additional senior and unsecured issuance to address liquidity needs [30] Other Important Information - The company completed two portfolio sales, netting $85 million and $24 million from the sales of loans [4][5] - The combined provision for loan loss and valuation allowance decreased by $140.2 million, with a net increase in provision for loan losses of $38 million [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the right level of leverage for the company going forward? - Management indicated that the current gross leverage is around $3.5 million, with a target of less than that on a pro forma basis [19] Question: What is the target mix of secured versus unsecured debt? - The expectation is that the majority of debt will be secured for the immediate future, with potential access to unsecured markets as they open [20][21] Question: Can you explain the rationale behind continuing to pay dividends while reducing leverage? - The company is adopting an aggressive approach to repositioning the balance sheet and will evaluate the dividend in December based on liquidity and business progress [30] Question: Will the other assets category be evaluated at year-end as part of the audit? - Management confirmed that deferred tax assets will be reevaluated at year-end, with expectations of profitability growth as origination volume increases [34] Question: Is the Portland property being carried at fair value or at cost? - The property is carried at fair value for the condos held for sale, while the other components are held at cost [36][40] Question: How does the recent sale of a large office building in Portland affect property valuations? - Management clarified that the Portland asset is a luxury hospitality asset, which is not directly comparable to older office properties experiencing valuation declines [45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GAAP loss from continuing operations of $0.13 per common share and distributable earnings were a loss of $0.94 per common share, with $0.04 per common share excluding realized losses on asset sales [13] - Net interest income declined to $10.5 million due to a $1.4 billion reduction in the CRE portfolio and $40 million of negative credit migration [13] - Book value per share was $10.28 at quarter end, down $0.16 from June 30, primarily due to the dividend covered shortfall [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The core portfolio totaled 1,120 loans with an unpaid principal balance of $5.4 billion, with delinquencies increasing to 5.9% of the total [5] - In the small business lending operations, $175 million of SBA 7(a) loans were originated, which was 50% below the quarterly target [9] - The small business lending platform generated $11 million in net income, adding 280 basis points return on equity before realized losses [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Portland mixed-use asset represented 14% of quarter-end equity, with a net operating loss of $330,000 and occupancy of 48% [8] - The office and retail space in the Portland asset is currently 28% leased and has hit break-even [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on returning to financial health and profitability through rehabilitation of the portfolio yield, growth of small business lending operations, and management of 2026 debt maturities [4] - The strategy includes reducing CRE loan exposure and accelerating sales of non-performing loans and REO positions [11] - The company plans to evaluate the dividend in December based on progress in the business plan and liquidity levels [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in refinancing pending debt maturities and emphasized a conservative posture regarding new investments and dividend policy [11][50] - The company expects to utilize unencumbered assets and additional senior and unsecured issuance to address liquidity needs [30] Other Important Information - The company liquidated $503 million in the non-core portfolio during the quarter, which had an $8 million drag on earnings [7] - The company has $830 million of unencumbered assets, including $150 million of unrestricted cash [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the right level of leverage for the company going forward? - Management indicated that the current gross leverage is around $3.5 million and they are looking for a pro forma basis of less than that [19] Question: What is the target mix of secured versus unsecured debt? - The expectation is that the majority of debt will be secured for the immediate future, with potential access to unsecured markets as they open [20][21] Question: Can you explain the rationale behind continuing to pay dividends while reducing leverage? - Management stated that they are adopting an aggressive approach to reposition the balance sheet and will evaluate the dividend in December based on liquidity and business progress [30] Question: Will the other assets category be evaluated at year-end as part of the audit? - Management confirmed that deferred tax assets are reevaluated regularly, including at year-end audits, and they expect profitability to grow as origination volume increases [34] Question: Is the Portland property being carried at fair value or at cost? - The property is carried at fair value with the current appraised value of $425 million, with condos held for sale at fair value and other components held at cost [36][40]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year[1] - The Fed announced the end of quantitative tightening, with plans to reinvest maturing U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities starting December 1[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement shifted from "economic activity growth has slowed" to "economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace," indicating ongoing growth despite uncertainties[2] - Core PCE inflation is projected to be between 2.3%-2.4%, with non-tariff inflation nearing the 2% target[3] Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Rate Cuts - The decision to cut rates was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others preferred to maintain current rates[2] - Powell indicated that the decision for a December rate cut is not guaranteed, with internal divisions and missing key economic data potentially influencing the decision[3][4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the market's expectation for a December rate cut decreased significantly from over 90% to 60%-70%[4] - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.16%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.55%[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve may adjust its U.S. Treasury bond portfolio, potentially purchasing nearly $2 trillion in short-term bonds over the next two years, which could absorb the entire issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds during that period [1][4] - Bank of America strategists expect the Fed to align its asset portfolio with its liabilities to mitigate interest rate risk and negative asset conditions, while also shortening the maturity of its liabilities [1][4] - The Fed's potential actions would ensure strong demand for short-term government bonds, alleviating concerns about market liquidity being depleted due to large-scale U.S. Treasury bond issuance [4] Group 2 - Bank of America strategists estimate that the supply of Treasury bills will reach $825 billion in fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion in fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its bond auction size until October 2026 [3] - Since the U.S. Congress raised the debt ceiling last month, the Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term government bonds to replenish its cash reserves, leading to a liquidity drain from the financial system [3] - The Fed's total net income remains negative due to interest payments on bank reserves and other liabilities exceeding the income from its bond holdings, creating additional cost pressures [4] Group 3 - The Dallas Fed's research report analyzed three asset allocation strategies, concluding that maturity matching helps reduce yield volatility, while a diversified portfolio is more effective in mitigating concentration risk [5] - The Fed has several options to quickly increase its holdings of Treasury bills, including reinvesting mortgage-backed securities and increasing reserve balances, with potential monthly purchases ranging from $10 billion to $60 billion [5] - Analysts expect the Fed to adjust its reinvestment strategy immediately after concluding its balance sheet reduction plan, likely by December 2025 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2024, the company reported net earnings of $51 million or $0.36 per share, maintaining profitability for 191 consecutive quarters [7] - The return on average tangible common equity was 14.31% and return on average assets was 1.3% for Q4 2024 [8] - Net interest income decreased by $3.2 million or 2.8% quarter-over-quarter, while non-interest income increased by $269,000 [9][10] - Total deposits and customer repurchase agreements increased by $505 million from December 31, 2023, totaling $12.2 billion [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loans at December 31, 2024, were $8.54 billion, a decrease of $36 million from Q3 and a decline of $368 million or 4% from December 31, 2023 [13] - Commercial real estate loans decreased by $111 million quarter-over-quarter, while dairy and livestock loans grew by $87 million [14][15] - Non-performing and delinquent loans decreased from $53.3 million at September 30, 2024, to $47.6 million at December 31, 2024 [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cost of deposits was 93 basis points for Q4 2024, down from 98 basis points in Q3 2024 and 62 basis points in the year-ago quarter [12] - Non-maturity deposits grew by an average of $188 million compared to Q3, while time deposits declined by an average of $130 million [11] - The company experienced a decrease in deposits from the end of Q3 of $257 million [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on internal growth and is actively exploring M&A opportunities, with ongoing discussions with various banks [39][40] - The management emphasized a disciplined approach to capital deployment, balancing between M&A and stock buybacks [41][43] - The company aims to continue growing low-cost deposits and has seen a strong year for new deposit relationships [12][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about loan growth in 2025, noting an improvement in client sentiment and pipeline activity [36][37] - The economic forecast indicates slower GDP growth below 2% for 2025 through 2027, with rising unemployment rates [26] - Despite challenges in the California market, management believes in the bank's growth potential due to its low market share and diversified economy [78][80] Other Important Information - The company executed two sale-leaseback transactions in Q4 2024, realizing gains on sale totaling $16.8 million [11] - The unrealized loss on available-for-sale securities increased by $80 million from Q3 to Q4 2024 [20] - The company has a new 10 million share repurchase program authorized by the Board of Directors, although no shares were repurchased in Q4 2024 [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Client sentiment and loan growth outlook - Management noted a sense of optimism among clients and an improving loan pipeline, although not yet at desired levels [36][37] Question: Capital deployment strategy - Management highlighted the importance of internal growth and ongoing M&A discussions, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital use [39][40] Question: Deposit cost management and outlook - Management reported effective management of interest-bearing deposit costs and expressed confidence in future deposit growth [45][46] Question: Margin and expense outlook for 2025 - Management indicated a focus on maintaining controllable expenses while investing in technology to improve efficiency [60] Question: Impact of wildfires on the balance sheet - Management stated that the impact from the wildfires is limited, with some insurance proceeds already received and a focus on supporting affected clients [91][94]