事件点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 重视"通胀正常化"的可能性 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月价格数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月价格数据，11 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%（前值 为+0.2%，下同），同比上涨 0.7%（+0.2%）；核心 CPI 环比下降 0.1%（+0.2%）， 同比上涨 1.2%（+1.2%）；PPI 环比上涨 0.1%（+0.1%），同比下降 2.2%（-2.1%）。 影响价格数据的可能性因素 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，为 2024 年 3 月份以来最高值。CPI 同比涨幅基本与 市场预期保持一致，Wind 统计的 19 家机构预测中位数为+0.69%，平均数为 +0.67%。 CPI 同比涨幅的扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动，同时金价价格上涨的影响 仍在持续。蔬菜价格的反季节性上涨导致了错位，11 月鲜菜价格上涨 14.5%，影 ...

Group 1: Political and Economic Context - The new leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, supports fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy, which is expected to benefit the Japanese stock market and pose a downside risk to the yen [1] - Following a period of uncertainty, Takaichi is likely to become Japan's first female Prime Minister, which has reignited market enthusiasm for the "Takaichi trade," leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index by 3.37% [1] - Despite political changes, the framework supporting Japan's economic growth remains solid, and the country is unlikely to revert to deflation [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Growth - Japan is transitioning from a deflationary environment to a moderate inflation scenario, with core inflation expected to exceed 3% by early 2025 and decline to around 2% by the end of next year [2] - The shift towards inflation is increasingly driven by wage growth and coordinated policies between the government and the central bank, rather than solely by rising costs [2][3] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Shareholder Returns - Corporate governance reforms are reshaping Japanese companies' capital allocation and shareholder return attitudes, with a significant increase in share buybacks projected for the 2024 fiscal year, up nearly 90% year-on-year [6] - Japanese companies are increasingly focusing on improving capital efficiency and enhancing communication with investors, leading to a structural growth theme in the stock market [6][7] - The average return on equity for Japanese companies is expected to rise from 6%-8% in the 2000s to 10% by the 2026 fiscal year and potentially 11% by the 2028 fiscal year [7] Group 4: Sector-Specific Opportunities - The banking sector is benefiting from a favorable environment characterized by strong net interest margins and low borrowing costs, leading to improved profitability and return on equity [8] - The construction industry is also showing promising investment prospects, with contractors focusing on high-margin projects and improving profit margins due to a tight labor market [8] - Digital transformation remains a key structural growth theme, with Japanese companies accelerating automation to address labor challenges posed by an aging population [9]