2026 年作为 "十五五" 开局之年，其春节消费市场展现出消费从功能满足向 "意义与价值" 驱动转型的鲜明特征，理性与感性、悦己与顾家、怀旧与追新在 此实现融合，全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长 13.7%，文旅、餐饮、智能绿色消费等多领域迎来爆发，同时跨区域人员流动量超 28 亿人次，超长 假期大幅提振消费景气度。餐饮、零售、旅游相关收入分别实现 31.2%、39.3%、39.6% 的同比增长，以旧换新政策惠及 2755.6 万人次，智能、绿色、服务 类消费成为市场新增长点。 报告梳理出 2026 春节消费 12 大核心趋势，折射出消费市场的深层变迁：新团圆经济双向奔赴，反向团圆与返乡游同步爆发，下沉市场成为复合型消费场 景；Z 世代掌握家庭消费主导权，成为春节主理人，个性化、创意化融入传统节日消费；面子消费退潮，"心价比" 成为关键，消费者更注重消费的情绪疗愈 与情感满足；本地文化崛起成为消费新引擎，非遗体验、土特产 IP 化深受青睐；以旧换新政策推动品质觉醒，三四线及县域市场换新需求增速超一线城 市，智能绿色产品成首选；服务消费全面井喷，"花钱买时间" 成主流，上门经济、宠物托管等服务需求激增；即 ...

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy faces stagflation risks, with Q4 2025 GDP growth below expectations due to government shutdown impacts[13] - Non-farm employment data showed unexpected rebound, but the unemployment rate remains a concern as it may adjust after March[14] - The Eurozone is experiencing weak recovery, with February manufacturing PMI entering expansion territory for the first time since mid-2025[21] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - During the Spring Festival, national consumption-related industries saw a daily average sales increase of 13.7% compared to last year[30] - Smart products like smart glasses and intelligent robots saw sales growth of 47.3% and 32.7% respectively during the holiday[30] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be strong, with key product operating rates exceeding January averages[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The central bank's monetary policy remains cautious, focusing on structural tools to support key sectors while maintaining liquidity stability[5] - Fiscal policy is actively supporting economic stability, with over 1.5 trillion yuan in new local special bonds issued by February 26, 2026[46] - The government is expected to prioritize spending on technology innovation and social welfare in the first quarter[46] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic changes pose significant threats to domestic economic stability[6] - Inflation concerns are rising, with the Fed's rate cut window likely closed in the first half of 2026, impacting future monetary policy decisions[15]

蔡彤娟（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副院长、研究员） 智能产品成为年货新宠。在625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新政策带动下，截至2月23日， 2026年消费品以旧换新惠及3112.7万人次，带动销售额2070.3亿元。汽车以旧换新61.2万辆，带动新车 销售额1005.3亿元。商务大数据显示，今年春节假期，重点平台智能眼镜、具身智能机器人销售额较去 年春节假期分别增长47.3%和32.7%，节水卫浴器具、有机食品分别增长23.2%和26.5%。 2026年马年春节，中国消费市场呈现出"马力全开"的强劲态势。作为"史上最长春节假期"（除夕前一天 即开始放假，共9天），叠加多项促消费政策持续发力，居民消费意愿明显增强，消费结构持续优化， 展现出从物质满足向精神体验、从传统实物向智能健康、从单一购物向多元场景转变的鲜明特征。 2026年春节消费热度从支付数据可见一斑。据中国人民银行披露，除夕当天（2月16日）银联、网联两 大支付清算平台共处理支付交易49.31亿笔，较2025年除夕同比增长21.64%。这一增速显著高于2026年1 月移动支付商品消费交易笔数16.8%的同比增幅，表明长假效应极大激发了即时消费 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the robust performance of the consumer market during the Spring Festival, showcasing a diverse and resilient new consumption landscape across various regions and sectors [1] Group 1: Data Highlights - Cultural and tourism consumption emerged as the biggest highlight, with 596 million domestic trips taken during the 9-day holiday, an increase of 95 million trips compared to 2025, and total spending reaching 803.48 billion yuan, up by 126.48 billion yuan [2] - Retail and dining sectors also showed strong performance, with average daily sales of key retail and dining enterprises increasing by 5.7% compared to 2025, and foot traffic and sales in 78 monitored pedestrian streets rising by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively [2] - Smart and quality consumption gained traction, with sales of smart glasses, intelligent robots, and organic food increasing by 47.3%, 32.7%, and 26.5% respectively [2] Group 2: Structural Changes - There is a notable shift towards quality consumption, with high-quality products like energy-efficient appliances and organic foods becoming more popular, and health-oriented products such as sugar-free snacks seeing rapid sales growth [3] - The trend towards smart consumption is accelerating, with sales of smart wearables increasing by 130% and health products like smart blood pressure monitors growing by over 60% during the holiday [3] - Service consumption is evolving, with customized and experiential travel options gaining popularity, reflecting a trend towards spending on experiences and personal enjoyment [4] Group 3: Policy Support - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with nine departments, launched the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative, releasing a series of consumption-promoting policies, including 62.5 billion yuan for trade-in subsidies, benefiting over 31 million people and driving sales of 207 billion yuan [5] - Local governments allocated 2.05 billion yuan for consumer vouchers and subsidies, directly reaching consumers and enhancing market vitality [5] Group 4: Open Integration - The expansion of visa-free countries and optimized transit visa policies contributed to a significant increase in international travel, with 17.8 million people entering and exiting the country during the holiday, a 10.1% increase from the previous year [7] - The use of Alipay for foreign visitors surged by over 80%, indicating a growing trend of international consumption in China [7] Group 5: Economic Vitality - The consumer data reflects a vibrant economy, with spending during the Spring Festival igniting a chain reaction in production, employment, and income, contributing to sustained economic growth throughout the year [8] - The collective spending choices of over 1.4 billion people during the festival not only define personal celebrations but also shape the future of China's vast market [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market experienced a strong start during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant increases in both sales and foot traffic, reflecting a vibrant festive atmosphere [1] - Key data points include over 2.8 billion trips taken, 4.35 million events held, and a 5.7% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] Transportation and Travel - A total of 2.65 billion trips were made by road, with 86% being self-driving, averaging nearly 270 million trips per day [3] - The railway system transported 121 million passengers, marking an 11.5% increase year-on-year, with all transportation modes seeing substantial growth [4] - Daily package deliveries reached nearly 200 million, with 9.5 million tons of goods transported by rail [4] Entertainment and Cinema - The Spring Festival film season, lasting from February 15 to February 23, set a record with 4.35 million screenings, generating a box office of 5.752 billion yuan and attracting 120 million viewers [7] - Average ticket prices dropped to 47.8 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan or 6% from the previous year, marking a six-year low [10] - Third and fourth-tier cities contributed 54% of the box office, the highest proportion recorded [12] Tourism and Spending - During the nine-day holiday, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, an increase of 95 million from the previous year, with total spending amounting to 803.48 billion yuan, up 126.48 billion yuan [21] - Intra-provincial travel accounted for over 50% of trips, while inter-provincial travel saw a daily increase of 6.8% compared to the previous year [23][24] - The average stay duration for tourists increased by 21.6% in cities rich in traditional cultural experiences [24] Consumer Market Performance - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 5.7% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, with foot traffic and sales in monitored shopping districts rising by 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively [28] - The "old for new" consumption initiative benefited 31.127 million people, generating sales of 207.03 billion yuan [29] - Notable sales growth was observed in smart glasses (47.3%) and smart robots (32.7%), along with significant increases in water-saving sanitary ware (23.2%) and organic food (26.5%) [29] International Tourism - The Spring Festival attracted tourists from over 160 countries and regions, with significant increases in visitors from Sweden, Italy, Malaysia, and France, all exceeding 30% [32] - The volume of inbound tourism orders rose by 18.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a growing trend of foreign visitors celebrating the Spring Festival in China [32] Expert Analysis - Experts attribute the record-breaking performance of the cultural and tourism market to a combination of strong demand and effective supply-side strategies, including optimized product offerings and targeted promotional activities [36]

发布时间：2026-02-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资 止跌企稳仍需政策呵护》 - 2026.02.02 宏观研究 春节假期宏观大事分析 核心观点 （1）2026 年春节假期是近年来最长假期，通过跟踪春假假期数 据可知，近年春假长假居民出行需求旺盛，"反向团圆"成为新亮点； 全国文旅市场景气度上升，2026 年春节假期，全国国内旅游市场迎来 历史性爆发，值得注意的是，部分省市文旅市场呈现"量增价弱"现 象；在消费方面，商品消费品质升级，服务消费多元发展，体验型消 费成为主流；电影票房承压，触及近五年低点，且量价齐跌，供需错 配或是主要原因。 （2）美国关税政策再起波澜，美国最高法院裁决对等关税和芬 太尼关税违宪，但特朗普援引 122 条款新增 10%关税，后将关税税率 升至 15%，反映美国特朗普政府主导全球贸易秩序的底层逻辑并未发 生变化。 仅从当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" campaign by local commerce departments, which has significantly boosted consumer spending during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday compared to 2025. Group 1: Sales Performance - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points [1] - The foot traffic and revenue in 78 monitored pedestrian streets (business districts) increased by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively compared to the previous year's Spring Festival holiday [1] Group 2: Consumer Demand - The "old for new" consumption policy has effectively stimulated consumer demand, benefiting 31.12 million people and generating sales of 207.03 billion yuan by February 23 [1] - There is a strong demand for smart and green products, with sales of smart glasses and embodied intelligent robots increasing by 47.3% and 32.7% respectively compared to the previous year [1] - Sales of water-saving bathroom fixtures and organic food also saw significant growth, increasing by 23.2% and 26.5% respectively during the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative has effectively stimulated consumer spending during the holiday period, showcasing strong collaboration among various government departments to enhance domestic consumption and economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The initiative includes six key areas: food, accommodation, transportation, tourism, shopping, and entertainment, with significant policy measures such as trade-in programs, prize invoices, and financial support [1][3]. - A total of 20.5 billion yuan has been allocated for consumer vouchers and subsidies across 50 cities, with over 10 billion yuan in prizes distributed during the Spring Festival, significantly boosting consumer willingness to spend [3][4]. Group 2: Regional Responses and Activities - Local governments have actively organized events, with Beijing distributing over 20 million yuan in consumer vouchers and Henan issuing 70 million yuan in retail and dining vouchers, leading to substantial sales in various sectors [2][3]. - In Liaoning, monitored retail sales increased by 10.2% year-on-year during the holiday, with 18.4 million products sold through trade-in programs, generating 740 million yuan in sales [2][4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 5.7% compared to the previous year, with foot traffic and sales in monitored shopping areas rising by 6.7% and 7.5%, respectively [4]. - The demand for smart and green products surged, with sales of smart glasses and intelligent robots increasing by 47.3% and 32.7%, respectively, during the holiday period [4]. Group 4: Future Recommendations - The initiative's success suggests the need for ongoing themed promotional activities throughout the year to maintain consumer engagement and adapt to seasonal demands [5]. - Recommendations include enhancing support for small businesses, integrating online and offline experiences, and utilizing big data for better supply-demand matching [5].

□ 孟亚生 今年春节9天超长假期点燃消费热情，更折射出消费市场的深刻变革。商务部监测数据显示，今年年货 市场，传统的烟酒糖茶"老三样"逐渐淡出核心，取而代之的是绿色、智能、健康类产品"新三样"。仅假 期前两天，重点平台智能穿戴设备销售额同比增长1.3倍，智能血压仪、血糖仪销售额增长超60%，有 机食品销售额增长52%。 过去，春节消费重人情、讲排场、比面子，烟酒茶糖、高档礼盒占据主流。如今，理性消费、品质消 费、悦己消费成为主流选择，人们更愿意为健康、舒适、便捷与情绪价值付费。绿色低碳代表着生活态 度，智能科技代表着效率提升，健康守护代表着深切关怀，这一转变传递出消费理念全面升级的信号。 "新三样"走俏，还传递出政策引导与市场活力必须同频共振的信号。近年来，绿色消费、智能消费得到 政策有力支持，以旧换新政策惠及数千万人次；经营主体丰富产品供给，满足多元需求。政策精准发力 与市场自发活力相结合，既激活了节日消费潜力，也为长期消费升级奠定基础。可以预见，"新三样"不 仅是春节的消费热点，更将成为拉动内需、推动经济高质量发展的新引擎。 春节消费"新三样"的走俏，不仅勾勒出消费升级的新走向，更为经营主体、产业发展与经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in retail and catering data during the Spring Festival holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in the first four days, which is expected to boost the social retail data for the first two months of the year [1][2][52] - The increase in cross-regional travel during the holiday period saw an 8.7% rise compared to the previous year, with water transport showing remarkable growth of 28.5%, influenced by tourism demand and the reopening of Hainan [3][12][54] - Price stability was observed in key sectors, with high-end liquor and hotel prices in popular small cities increasing, while prices in first-tier cities and movie ticket prices saw declines [4][16][55] Group 2 - Structural highlights in consumption include a strong performance in mid-to-high-end products like gold and duty-free items, with gold consumption remaining robust and duty-free sales in Hainan increasing by 20.9% [5][14][56] - Domestic and cross-border travel maintained momentum, with hotel accommodation transaction values rising by 32.7% and a predicted double-digit growth in daily inbound and outbound travelers at national ports [5][14][57] - The trend towards smart and health-oriented consumption was evident, with significant sales growth in smart wearable devices and organic foods during the holiday period [5][14][57] Group 3 - Weekly economic observations indicate a rebound in durable goods consumption, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 54% year-on-year in early February, contrasting with a decline of 13.9% in January [6][24] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with a 5% year-on-year increase in residential sales area in 27 cities as of mid-February, compared to a decline of 16% in January [6][25] - Export activities showed signs of recovery, with a 32.3% increase in the number of outbound port calls compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in trade [6][30]