公司发布三季报，25Q3 收入168.32 亿元，同/环比+35.9%/+9.5%，归母净利12.11 亿元，同/环比 +15.1%/+140.2%，扣非净利7.80 亿元，同/环比-22.0%/+130.0%，归母净利低于我们此前15.81 亿的预 期，主要系股权激励费用、坏账等一次性计提影响，若剔除影响，调整后Q3 归母净利达14.57亿。展望 明年，公司宝马大圆柱项目及北美储能客户订单释放带来客户结构改善，动力产能利用率提升，国内储 能价格同比好转，我们看好公司实现量利齐升，维持"买入"评级。 动力：商用车需求高增长，盈利能力后续将持续提升公司25Q3 动力电池出货13.1GWh，环比+16%，毛 利率超17%，盈利能力维持稳定。根据公司业绩会，商用车是动力领域增长最快的场景，26 年预计有 望继续实现翻倍增长。乘用车除了宝马大圆柱项目继续上量，明年有望导入新客户。随着明年动力需求 高增提升产能利用率+优质客户交付起量+产品结构往高端化发展，公司预计明年动力业务毛利率达 20%，较今年显著改善。我们看好明年公司动力业务实现量利齐升。 储能：25Q3 毛利率已有环比改善，25Q4 或将继续改善公司25Q3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational momentum and effective market strategies [1][4]. Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.8% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the revenue reached 5.27 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 50.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.3% [1]. - Domestic revenue for the first half was 5.635 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 2.862 billion yuan, up 89.5% year-on-year, accounting for 33.7% of total revenue [2]. Profitability Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.7% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the net profit was 850 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89.5% [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit for the first half was 1.24 billion yuan, up 47.0% year-on-year, with Q2 showing a non-recurring net profit of 800 million yuan, up 60.0% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expense Summary - The overall expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 13.48%, down 1.32 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 5.24%, up 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, indicating increased investment in overseas market expansion [3]. - The company’s inventory at the end of Q2 2025 was 4.715 billion yuan, up 38.5% year-on-year, suggesting continued strong demand and delivery expectations [3]. Market Outlook - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas markets, with both volume and profit increasing, and the overall market conditions remain favorable [4]. - The projected net profit for the full year 2025 is estimated to reach 2.76 billion yuan, corresponding to a valuation of approximately 25 times earnings, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Market Overview - The North American automotive glass market is experiencing slow and stable growth, with the overall market size projected to increase from 19.3 billion in 2024 to 24.2 billion in 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1] - The market includes both OEM and aftermarket segments, with stable rates of vehicle scrappage and windshield damage contributing to this growth [1] Competitive Landscape - The automotive glass industry has high entry barriers due to the need for a comprehensive production and sales network, stringent technical and quality requirements, and significant capital investment [1] - The North American market is characterized by a high concentration of suppliers, with major players including Fuyao Glass, Asahi Glass, Saint-Gobain, and Nippon Sheet Glass, where Fuyao has become the leading supplier in market share [1] Company Insights - Fuyao Glass is expected to achieve both volume and profit growth in the North American market, as its main competitors are not solely focused on automotive glass and are currently in a low-profit state [2] - Fuyao's profitability significantly outpaces that of its competitors, and ongoing investments in its U.S. facilities are anticipated to enhance its market share further [2] - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve due to higher product yield, reduced depreciation and amortization ratios, enhanced management efficiency, and an increased proportion of high-value-added products [2] Investment Recommendation - Fuyao Glass is recommended as a leading player in the global automotive glass industry, with ongoing efforts to expand its product boundaries and enhance the value of its offerings [3] - The company is expected to maintain an upward trend in global market share, leveraging its competitive advantages in quality and cost-effectiveness to capture more market share from competitors [3] - Profit forecasts for Fuyao Glass indicate net profits of 8.835 billion, 10.388 billion, and 12.177 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.13, 13.72, and 11.70 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 454.25 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - BYD's performance in 2024 is expected to be strong, with revenue and profit growth driven by new model launches and favorable domestic demand [2][4]. - The company is anticipated to maintain stable unit profitability, with a slight decline in net profit per vehicle due to increased after-sales costs [3]. - Continued investment in R&D is expected to enhance product competitiveness and support the launch of new high-end models [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, BYD achieved revenue of 274.85 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 37%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 15 billion CNY, up 73% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - For the full year 2024, BYD reported total revenue of 777.1 billion CNY, a 29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40.3 billion CNY, a 34% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company sold 1.51 million passenger vehicles in Q4 2024, representing a 61% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. Cost and Profitability Summary - The gross margin for the automotive business in Q4 2024 was 25.4%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 145,100 CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 600 CNY but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 600 CNY [2]. - R&D expenses for 2024 were 54.2 billion CNY, a 36% increase year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to new model development and smart driving technology [4]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of Q4 2024, BYD had cash and cash equivalents of 102.3 billion CNY, significantly up from 65.8 billion CNY at the end of Q3 2024 [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 77.2 billion CNY, a 7% year-on-year increase and an 84% quarter-on-quarter increase [4]. Future Outlook - BYD is expected to continue its growth trajectory with a focus on high-end models and international expansion, leveraging its scale and cost advantages [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 55.21 billion CNY, 64.39 billion CNY, and 81.24 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a strong growth outlook [9].