证券研究报告 2025年08月22日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 比亚迪赛车场—高端化的新引擎 作者： 分析师 孙潇雅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520080009 分析师 王彬宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070005 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 比亚迪赛车场 比亚迪郑州全地形赛车场 比亚迪赛道：比亚迪郑州全地形赛车场建成并对外开放，全球首批自建全地形赛车场，赛道场景包含沙地攀爬，水陆操控，极限坡度等 比亚迪全地形驾控：赛场是技术落地的最佳舞台布局，关键科技露出：易四方、云辇的极限场景应用 赛场连接：比亚迪打造新能源汽车文化阵地，从赛车场建设到技术研究测试，再到赛道开放，比亚迪正让赛车场成为连接技术与用户的桥梁。 赛道驱动品牌的高端化演进 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 赛道塑牌，从赛道走上的高端化之路，"以赛塑牌"的路径，在全球汽车产业中已有诸多先例。 1 F1赛场是技术的试炼场无论是百年豪门奔驰，还是以赛为生的法拉利，都在 F1 的胜利中锻造了"技术与豪华并举"的品牌形象，并将这种形象输送到 全球市场。 摘要 奔驰实现了从赛道到销量的系统转化，2014年至2020年间 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [9][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the automotive sales structure, with the proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan declining to 21% in the first five months of 2025, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [9][10]. - The report suggests that while competition has driven down vehicle prices, consumer preferences are shifting towards larger vehicles, indicating a trend of "cars becoming larger but cheaper" [10][9]. - The report anticipates a strong market performance in the second half of the year, despite the traditional off-season in July and August, due to factors such as reduced price war risks and inventory adjustments [10][9]. Summary by Sections Sales by Price Range - The report provides detailed analysis of sales trends across various price ranges, indicating that: - The 0-10 million yuan segment saw a slight increase in market share to 32.7%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The 10-15 million yuan segment increased to 33.8%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by models like Qin L and Galaxy E5 [10]. - The 15-20 million yuan segment decreased to 12.2%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by price adjustments of models like Sea Leopard and Accord [10]. - The 20-25 million yuan segment increased to 9.1%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, supported by consumption upgrades and electric vehicle growth [10]. - The 30-40 million yuan segment saw a decline to 6%, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Sales by Vehicle Class - The report categorizes vehicle sales by class, revealing: - In the 0-20 million yuan category, A-class vehicles' market share decreased to 38%, while B-class vehicles increased to 37% [10]. - In the 20 million yuan and above category, C-class vehicles gained market share to 48.9%, while A and B-class vehicles saw declines [10]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a shift towards larger vehicle classes, with a notable increase in the C-class segment [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Jianghuai Automobile, which are expected to perform well in terms of volume and profitability [9]. - It suggests monitoring new models from companies like Li Auto and Xiaomi, as well as traditional automakers like SAIC and Great Wall, which are anticipated to reach profitability this year [9].

Group 1 - BYD achieved the highest sales in June and the first half of 2025, with total sales of 383,000 units in June and 2.146 million units in the first half, making it the only company to exceed 2 million units [1][3] - The Dynasty and Ocean series contributed significantly to BYD's success, selling 1.972 million units, securing the top brand sales position [3] - BYD's technological advancements include over 1 million vehicles equipped with the "Heavenly Eye" intelligent driving system, and the popularity of the Super e-platform, with models like Han L and Tang L consistently selling over 10,000 units per month [6] Group 2 - The high-end brands of BYD, including Fangchengbao, Tengshi, and Yangwang, sold a total of 142,000 units in the first half, marking a year-on-year growth of over 69% [6] - The overseas market showed remarkable growth, with sales reaching 472,000 units in the first half, a 132% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing total sales from the previous year [6] - BYD's commercial vehicle segment also performed well, exporting 2,082 new energy buses, a 45% increase year-on-year, capturing a market share of 27.29% [6]

Core Viewpoint - BYD's "Megawatt Flash Charging" technology significantly enhances charging speed, approaching the efficiency of traditional fuel vehicles, although the availability of compatible charging stations remains a challenge [1][14]. Group 1: Technology Overview - The "Megawatt Flash Charging" technology was introduced with BYD's "Super e-platform," featuring a 1000V vehicle architecture that supports high charging currents [2][12]. - The technology utilizes low-resistance "flash charging batteries," allowing for a maximum charging current of 1000A and achieving a peak charging power of 1 megawatt (1000kW) [2][4]. - A BYD Han L model can charge from 3% to 61% in just 5 minutes, enabling a range of over 420 km, which aligns closely with official claims [4][6]. Group 2: Charging Infrastructure - The "Megawatt Flash Charging" stations require high power distribution capacity, with BYD's stations featuring both 1000kW and 400kW charging options [10][14]. - BYD plans to construct over 4,000 "Megawatt Flash Charging" stations nationwide, with the first 500 already established [14]. - The company is collaborating with leading charging operators to promote the construction of these charging facilities, sharing the technology across the industry [14]. Group 3: Market Implications - The introduction of the "Megawatt Flash Charging" technology is expected to enhance competition among automakers and foster the development of a robust charging ecosystem [14]. - BYD's ability to keep the starting price of vehicles equipped with this technology between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan reflects its strong R&D capabilities in the electric vehicle sector [14].

Core Viewpoint - The increase in Geely's sales target for 2025 to 3 million units raises questions about BYD's ability to meet its sales goal of 5.5 million units, especially given recent declines in domestic sales [1]. Sales Performance - BYD's domestic sales have seen a continuous year-on-year decline over the past two months, excluding overseas market impacts [2]. - In June, BYD sold 292,500 vehicles domestically, a decrease of 22,000 units compared to the same month last year, marking the first non-seasonal month-on-month decline [3]. - For the first half of the year, BYD sold a total of 2.146 million vehicles, requiring a year-on-year growth of over 26% in the second half to meet its annual target [5]. Market Competition - The market competition has intensified, with brands like Geely's Galaxy launching strong models that have impacted BYD's sales [6][32]. - BYD's strategy of "universal intelligent driving" has not yielded the expected results, leading to concerns among dealers and the capital market [4][6]. Inventory and Sales Strategy - BYD's dealers have a high inventory coefficient of 3.21, indicating that existing stock can last over three months without new vehicle arrivals [18]. - The focus on clearing inventory has shifted dealer priorities away from promoting new "intelligent driving" models [17][20]. Intelligent Driving Initiative - BYD's "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" intelligent driving system was introduced at a low price point, but consumer response has been lukewarm due to a lack of strong demand for such features in the mass market [12][16]. - Despite significant investment in intelligent driving technology, BYD has struggled to establish a strong market presence compared to competitors like Xiaopeng [22][23]. Production Adjustments - Reports indicate that BYD has begun reducing production and canceling night shifts at several domestic factories due to declining sales [36]. - Some component factories have also shifted to a five-day, eight-hour work schedule, reallocating workers to support other business areas [37]. Future Outlook - BYD's growth strategy heavily relies on maintaining scale, cost efficiency, and technological advancement, as emphasized by its founder [38]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 4.272 million vehicles by 2024, surpassing Tesla and becoming the global leader in new energy vehicle sales [39]. - Despite challenges in the domestic market, BYD's export volume reached 464,000 units in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 128.6% [40][43].

Group 1 - The event celebrated the delivery of the 1 millionth Han vehicle, marking it as the first model in the 200,000 RMB segment from a Chinese brand to achieve this milestone, enhancing global recognition for Chinese automobiles [1] - The new Han L model, launched three months ago, has achieved impressive sales, exceeding 10,000 units, and is particularly popular among younger consumers [1][3] Group 2 - The Han L features the Super e-platform with a full-domain kilovolt architecture, enabling ultra-fast charging that allows for 400 kilometers of range in just 5 minutes, effectively eliminating the limitations of electric vehicles [3] - The Han L showcases a unique design and customization options, with various modified versions presented by owners at the event, reflecting personal tastes [3][5] - The vehicle is equipped with the world's first mass-produced 30,000 RPM electric drive, with a single motor power of 580 kW, rivaling V12 engines, and a maximum power of 810 kW in the all-wheel-drive version, achieving 0-100 km/h in 2.7 seconds [5] - The Han L also includes advanced driving technologies and a racing mode, providing an immersive racing experience for performance enthusiasts [5] Group 3 - The company plans to establish an annual "Track Day" for Han L owners, offering professional track training and experiences [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in June with significant growth in wholesale sales of new energy vehicles, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and international markets [1][2][3]. Sales Performance - In June, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 383,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.03% [1]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 378,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.0% and a month-on-month growth of 0.2% [2]. - The breakdown of sales by brand includes 343,000 units for Dynasty and Ocean series, 15,783 units for Tengshi, 18,903 units for Fangchengbao, and 205 units for Yangwang [1]. Export Performance - The company achieved a record high of 90,000 units in overseas sales in June, benefiting from increasing demand in markets such as Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [3]. - The sales of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 173,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while pure electric passenger vehicles saw sales of 207,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [2]. Product Development and High-End Strategy - The year 2025 is projected to be a significant year for high-end products, with flagship models like Han L and Tang L launched in April, featuring advanced driving systems and fast-charging technology [4]. - The Fangchengbao Titanium 7 is expected to launch in Q4 2025, targeting family users with its spacious design and advanced technology [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 990.8 billion, 1,188.97 billion, and 1,397.04 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 55.2 billion, 65.8 billion, and 75.3 billion yuan [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 10.05, 11.98, and 13.71 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33, 28, and 24 [5][7].

Core Insights - The company reported a total of 383,000 wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.03% [1] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378,000 units in June, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% and a month-on-month growth of 0.2% [1] - The company achieved record overseas sales of 90,000 units in June, driven by increasing demand in markets such as Turkey, Brazil, and Europe [2] Sales Performance - In June, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles included 173,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles, which saw a year-on-year decline of 11.5% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [1] - Pure electric passenger vehicle sales reached 207,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [1] - The sales breakdown by brand showed that the Dynasty and Ocean series sold 343,000 units, while other brands like Tengshi and Fangchengbao contributed 15,783 and 18,903 units respectively [1] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its overseas factory establishment, with plans to invest in markets such as Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia [2] - The introduction of additional roll-on/roll-off ships is expected to enhance shipping capacity, with a fleet expansion to 8 ships by January 2026 [2] - The overseas market is anticipated to experience rapid growth, particularly in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Australia/New Zealand, which is expected to boost profitability [2] Product Development - The year 2025 is projected to be significant for the company's high-end product offerings, with flagship models like Han L and Tang L launched in April featuring advanced driving systems and fast-charging technology [3] - The Fangchengbao Titanium 7, set to launch in Q4 2025, is designed for urban family use, emphasizing spaciousness and advanced technology [3] - The combination of high-end design and smart driving features is expected to cater to family users' needs, further driving brand premiumization [3] Financial Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 990.81 billion, 1,188.97 billion, and 1,397.04 billion respectively, with net profits of 55.20 billion, 65.81 billion, and 75.33 billion [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 10.05, 11.98, and 13.71, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33, 28, and 24 [3]

Core Viewpoint - BYD, as a battery-centric automotive company, continues to strengthen its battery capabilities while achieving significant innovations in battery storage and charging technologies [2][7]. Group 1: Innovations in Battery Technology - BYD has recently received a patent for a heat exchange plate design that enhances thermal management in batteries, allowing for better temperature control and improved safety and performance [2]. - The company has also developed a wireless charging system that increases energy utilization and reduces charging losses, indicating its ambition to lead in this technology area [2]. - In 2024, BYD plans to invest 53.195 billion yuan in R&D, having already secured over 2,500 new patents this year, averaging more than 400 patents per month [2]. Group 2: Charging Infrastructure and Technology - BYD's new super e-platform supports a maximum voltage of 1000V and a charging rate of up to 10C, surpassing the current market standard of 5C [3]. - The company has introduced megawatt flash charging technology, enabling 2 kilometers of range from just 1 second of charging and 400 kilometers from 5 minutes of charging, although initial deployment is limited due to the number of charging stations [4]. - Collaborations with third-party charging companies and major operators like Southern Power Grid and Sinopec are underway to expand the megawatt flash charging infrastructure [4]. Group 3: Market Performance and Competitive Advantage - The deployment of megawatt charging stations is expected to increase utilization rates by 50% and reduce the cost per kilowatt-hour by 30%, providing new revenue growth opportunities for BYD [5]. - The introduction of the Han L and Tang L models, equipped with megawatt flash charging technology, has led to sales exceeding 10,000 units in their first month [5]. - BYD's blade battery technology has reduced costs by approximately 20% and is reported to be 5% cheaper than Tesla's lithium iron phosphate cells, giving BYD a competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [5]. Group 4: European Market Expansion - BYD's Dolphin Surf model is priced at £18,650 (approximately 188,000 yuan), making it one of the cheapest new cars in the UK, which has significantly boosted its sales in Europe [6]. - In April 2025, BYD's electric vehicle sales in Europe surged by nearly 170% to 7,231 units, surpassing Tesla's sales growth during the same period [6].

Core Insights - BYD has solidified its leading position in the automotive industry with strong performance, achieving cumulative sales of 1.629 million vehicles from January to May 2025, maintaining the top spot in the domestic market and experiencing significant growth in overseas markets [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, BYD maintained a dual growth trend year-on-year and month-on-month for five consecutive months, with notable sales figures including 429,000 units from the Song family and over 230,000 units from the Qin series [3] - The compact car Seagull has also seen rising sales, with cumulative sales exceeding 230,000 units from January to May 2025 [3] - The flagship models Han L and Tang L, launched in April, have each sold over 10,000 units for two consecutive months, indicating strong consumer preference [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - BYD's "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" driving assistance system has become a key driver of sales growth, with 207,000 units sold in May alone, and a total of over 710,000 smart driving models sold by the end of May [5] - The smart driving system generates over 44 million kilometers of data daily, marking the large-scale implementation of the "全民智驾" (Universal Smart Driving) strategy [5] Group 3: Export and Global Expansion - In May, BYD's exports reached a record high of 89,000 units, with total exports from January to May amounting to 374,200 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 112% [5] - The company has expanded its global footprint, establishing its European headquarters in Budapest, Hungary, and launching the Seagull in 15 European countries [5] - BYD ranked fifth in the global automotive brand sales list published by Yiche in April, becoming the only Chinese automotive brand on the list, reflecting its growing global influence [5] Group 4: Research and Development - In the first quarter of the year, BYD reported a net profit of 9.155 billion yuan while investing 14.223 billion yuan in R&D, with 13 out of the last 14 years seeing R&D investments exceed net profits [7] - The company maintains a full industry chain layout, focusing on self-research and production of key components, which enhances technological innovation and efficiency [7] - BYD aims to promote global sustainable development through green technology, aligning with its vision of "cooling the Earth by 1°C" [7]