Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced significant volatility, primarily due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and political uncertainty in the UK, leading to a notable decline against the US dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - As of September 4, the GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.3434, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.04% from the previous close of 1.3440 [1] - The pound fell sharply by 1.15% on September 2, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly two months [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The UK government's borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since 1998, indicating strong market concerns regarding fiscal stability [1] - Prime Minister Starmer's urgent reshuffle of the senior economic advisory team has raised investor doubts about the continuity and stability of economic policies, further undermining market confidence [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - A widespread sell-off in major global bond markets has led to a significant increase in UK bond yields, intensifying downward pressure on the pound [1] - The daily chart for GBP/USD indicates a double top reversal pattern, with key moving averages suggesting potential for further upward movement, although caution is advised due to the current market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.64 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a decline of 0.06% from the previous close of 0.6478 [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may initiate a monetary easing cycle in November, potentially lowering interest rates by up to 50 basis points due to concerns over slowing economic growth [1] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest a flexible policy approach, with potential for rate cuts in September, influenced by trade policy pressures and signs of a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by the interplay between market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated magnitude of future RBA rate reductions [1] - Short-term technical analysis indicates that if the AUD/USD can break above the key level of 0.6500, it may trigger a technical rebound; however, stronger-than-expected US GDP and PCE inflation data could strengthen the USD and exert pressure on the AUD [1] - The AUD/USD has faced resistance at the kijun-sen (0.6522) and is currently testing the cloud bottom (0.6474), which is also a Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Positive momentum indicators and a potential golden cross formation on the daily chart suggest a slight bullish bias, with targets set at 0.6568 and possibly 0.6625 if upward momentum continues [2] - Conversely, if the AUD/USD falls below the cloud bottom, it may test support levels at 0.6450 and 0.6419 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to a strong dollar, but expectations for a rate cut in September may provide support for gold prices [1][8]. Technical Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, indicating a generally optimistic outlook for gold, currently around 53.50 [3]. - A "golden cross" formation may occur if the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closes above the 50-day SMA, potentially increasing bullish sentiment among traders [3]. - Key resistance levels for gold include the previous high of $3,379 and the $3,400 mark, which may see significant trading activity [3][4]. - A critical support area is formed by the 21-day and 50-day SMAs around $3,346; failure to break this level may prevent further declines [5]. - Strong support is also noted at the 100-day SMA around $3,320, which has historically not been breached since December 31, 2024 [6][7]. Fundamental Overview - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments have reignited expectations for significant rate cuts this year, leading to a nearly $50 rebound in gold prices, reaching around $3,380 [8]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen to 88% from 75% following Powell's remarks, indicating a shift in sentiment [9]. - The recent sell-off in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, but the decline is expected to be temporary due to a reassessment of the Fed's dovish policy stance [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are influenced by market expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve policy, with a strong performance in China's July services PMI contributing to overall risk sentiment [1] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, supported by weak U.S. labor market data and dovish comments from officials [1] - Trade tensions are escalating as U.S. President Trump threatens to raise import tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which India has dismissed as baseless [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix suggests that gold price movements will depend on the upcoming U.S. July ISM services PMI data, which is expected to rise from 50.8 in June to 51.5 [2] - A strong ISM reading could alleviate dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar and a short-term correction in gold prices [2] - Conversely, a slowdown in service activity may heighten concerns about U.S. economic resilience, weakening the dollar and supporting gold prices [2] Group 3 - Analyst Chad notes that the technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with the RSI above 55 indicating potential buying interest on any dips [3] - A "golden cross" may occur if the 21-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average, confirming bullish signals [3] - For gold bulls to maintain momentum, the daily closing price must stay above the rising trend line support at $3,380, with a challenge to the $3,400 level possible [3] Group 4 - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish bias, with resistance levels at $3,381 and $3,396, while support levels are at $3,367 and $3,342 [4] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a three-year period [4] Group 5 - The daily chart for EUR/USD also indicates a bullish direction, with resistance at 1.1590 and support at 1.1558 [5] - The momentum is moderate, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a three-year period [5] Group 6 - Key economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone's June retail sales month-on-month data and the U.S. global supply chain pressure index for July, along with EIA crude oil inventory data [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the KDJ indicator as a tool for identifying turning points in the stock market, likening it to a "speed sensor" for stock prices, helping investors understand whether the market is accelerating towards a peak or preparing for a rebound [1]. Group 1: KDJ Indicator Overview - KDJ consists of three lines: K (short-term speed), D (medium-term speed), and J (extreme speed), which together monitor stock price momentum [3]. - The combination of these three lines is essential for identifying market turning points [3]. Group 2: Practical Application of KDJ - **Golden Cross and Death Cross**: A golden cross occurs when the K line crosses above the D line, signaling a potential upward movement, while a death cross occurs when the K line crosses below the D line, indicating a possible downward correction. For example, a tech stock saw its price rise from 15 to 30 after a golden cross, then drop back to 20 following a death cross [4]. - **Overbought and Oversold Conditions**: The J line indicates extreme conditions; a J value above 100 signals overbought conditions, while below 0 indicates oversold conditions. For instance, a liquor stock had a J value of 120 before a 15% correction, and a J value of -10 before an 8% rebound [5]. - **Divergence**: A top divergence occurs when the stock price reaches a new high but the KDJ does not, suggesting potential selling pressure. Conversely, a bottom divergence indicates a possible reversal when the stock price hits a new low but the KDJ does not [8]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Tips - KDJ is best used for short-term fluctuations, particularly in a sideways market, where its signals are more reliable [8]. - In a strong trend, KDJ may remain in overbought or oversold territory, and traders should consider volume and market conditions before making decisions [8]. - A mnemonic for using KDJ effectively is: "Golden cross looks at volume, death cross looks at support, avoid hard resistance in overbought/oversold conditions, and turn quickly when divergence appears" [8].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching a high of $3320 per ounce, the highest since May 9 [1][3]. Market Analysis - The Trump administration is pushing for a comprehensive tax reduction plan worth trillions, but there are significant divisions within the Republican Party [3]. - Gold prices have initially broken through the psychological barrier of $3300, with a bullish "golden cross" pattern observed technically [3]. - Short-term resistance for gold is at $3370, while solid support is established at $3150. Geopolitical or economic changes could push gold prices to challenge the $3400 mark [3]. Trading Strategy - The current upward trend from a low of $3120 to recent lows indicates a potential for further gains, with a focus on maintaining positions above $3285 [5]. - The trading strategy suggests entering long positions around $3305 to $3310, targeting a return to the $3320 high, with further potential towards $3360 if broken [5].