Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term supply positive expectations lead to a rebound in futures prices, but it still has to face the reality of high production and difficult - to - improve demand, with no signs of a substantial reversal in the supply - demand pattern. The supply - demand structure of steel may continue to weaken this week, and there is a risk of a correction in the black industry after the anti - involution hype ends [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures are generally weak. The rebar closed at 3063 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 733 yuan/ton; the coking coal and coke rose slightly [1] Market Analysis - Last week, the steel futures market broke through the narrow - range oscillation, with the price center rising nearly 100 points, mainly due to the increasing positive sentiment on the supply side. Firstly, the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, which improved the sentiment of commodities with large previous declines and strong supply pressure. Secondly, about the rumor of "Tangshan's sintering machine production limit of 30% from July 4 - 15", about half of the steel mills received the notice, and most of the remaining ones said it was likely to happen. If the policy is implemented, the capacity utilization rate may drop to 70%, and the daily output of sinter may decrease by 30,000 tons. The terminal demand shows the characteristic of "off - season not off - season" in the short term, with the inventory of five major steel products decreasing slightly by 1,000 tons to 1.33993 million tons last week. However, affected by the high - temperature and rainy weather in July and August, it is the traditional off - season for steel demand. The social inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.06% month - on - month, but the steel mill inventory decreased by 2.24%. The steel mills are mainly focused on active sales, while the terminal consumption is not satisfactory [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - The short - term supply positive expectations bring a rebound in futures prices, but it still has to face the reality of high production and difficult - to - improve demand, with no signs of a substantial reversal in the supply - demand pattern. The steel supply - demand structure may continue to weaken this week, and there is a risk of a correction in the black industry after the anti - involution hype ends [1] Brief Evaluation - Rebar: Investors are advised to take an oscillating approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views Coke - Coke's third round of price cuts has been implemented, with another round expected. Due to profit decline and environmental inspections, coke production has decreased. With the off - season of steel demand, iron - water production will continue to decline, weakening coke demand. All inventory levels of coke decreased last week. Considering cost factors, a bullish view on pullbacks is recommended, with the coke index expected to range between 1300 - 1410 [2]. Coking Coal - Environmental inspections in the "Sanxi" region have led to a five - week decline in coal mine production and a significant drop in coal washery output, providing some support to the market. In the long - term, coking coal demand is under pressure as iron - water production declines. Upstream inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. A bullish view on pullbacks is recommended, with the coking coal index expected to range between 740 - 840 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Coke's third - round price cut has been implemented, and another cut is expected. Due to profit decline and environmental inspections in some areas, coke production has decreased. As of June 13, the daily coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.04 million tons (-1.48), and that of 247 steel - mill coking plants was 47.24 million tons (-0.06), with a total output of 112.28 million tons (-1.54) [15]. Profit - After the third - round price cut, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises was -46 yuan/ton (-27) as of June 13 [19]. Demand - Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. With the off - season of steel demand, iron - water production will maintain a downward trend, weakening coke demand. As of June 13, the daily iron - water production was 241.61 million tons (-0.19) [23]. Inventory - Traders actively reduced inventory. Last week, all inventory levels of coke decreased. As of June 13, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 125.71 million tons (-1.3), that of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons (-2.96), and the total inventory of four major ports was 203.09 million tons (-11.06), with a total coke inventory of 971.64 million tons (-15.32) [27]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel - mill coking plants increased slightly to 11.62 days (+0.04) as of June 13 [31]. Coke Basis - As of June 13, the warehouse - folded unit price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1304 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was -63, the May contract was -78, and the September contract was -46, indicating weak basis drivers [34]. Coke Calendar Spread - As of June 13, the September - January contract spread was -17, and the January - May contract spread was -15 [38]. Coking Coal Supply - Recently, there have been significant disturbances in the coking coal supply. In June, due to safety production month and stricter environmental inspections in the "Sanxi" region, some coal washeries stopped production and coal mine shipments were suspended. As of June 13, the daily output of 523 sample coal mines was 187.77 million tons (-2.11), with an operating rate of 83.71% (-0.94); the daily output of coal washeries was 47.79 tons (-3.67), with an operating rate of 57.36% (-3.23) [43]. Mongolian Coal Clearance - The clearance volume of Mongolian coal increased month - on - month [45]. Demand - Due to the decline in coking enterprise profits and coke production, coking coal demand support is weakening. In the long - term, coking coal demand will weaken as iron - water production declines. As of June 13, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 669.53 million tons (-21.32), with available days of 9.65 days (-0.13), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 69.38 million tons (-1.26); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07), with available days of 12.32 days (+0.06), and the converted daily consumption was 62.82 million tons (-0.06), with a total daily consumption of 132.2 million tons (-1.31) [50]. Coal Washery Inventory - As of June 13, the raw coal inventory of coal washeries was 336.13 million tons (+8.72), and the clean coal inventory was 251.47 million tons (+6.41) [54]. Inventory - Upstream coking coal inventory is at a high level. The inventory of coking enterprises decreased, while that of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased slightly. As of June 13, the total port inventory was 312.02 million tons (-1); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons (+3.07); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 798.07 million tons (-20.85); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample coal mines was 486.04 million tons (+5.31) [61]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of coking enterprises decreased to 9.65 days (-0.31), while that of 247 steel enterprises increased slightly to 12.32 days (+0.06) as of June 13 [61]. Coking Coal Basis - As of June 13, the warehouse - folded unit price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 clean coal was 793 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was 5, the May contract was -20, and the September contract was 18 [64]. Coking Coal Calendar Spread - As of June 13, the September - January contract spread was -13.5, and the January - May contract spread was -24, with no calendar - spread trading opportunities [68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel mills' production remains high with a slight decline, but apparent demand continues to fall, and hot-rolled coil inventory starts to accumulate. Real demand decline is being realized, and the overall demand expectation is still weak due to the off - season and tariff impacts. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Global iron ore shipments are increasing, reaching a high level this year, and the arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron is relatively stable, and the inventory is still in a destocking pattern. In the short - term, the price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view in the medium - to - long term [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures show a volatile trend with a divergence between futures and spot. The third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of one more round of cuts. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at an appropriate time [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures are expected to rebound from the bottom, but the spot fundamentals are still bearish. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at a high price [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon production is increasing, and the supply pressure is rising during the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The ferromanganese supply pressure also exists, and the demand is weak. The cost side should focus on coal price changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show small fluctuations. For example, the price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remains unchanged, while the cost of some steel products has changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, and the rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a significant decline of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, a 2.9% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 to 1363.8, and the rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 to 570.5, a 1.8% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 to 340.6, a 2.4% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.2, a 1.8% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a 3.5% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract for most iron ore powders decreased significantly [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased, while the prices of some iron ore indexes increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, a 17.9% increase, and the global shipment volume increased by 242.3 to 3431.0, a 7.6% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a 0.3% decrease, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 to 987.0, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, a 14.0% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a 1.4% decrease [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton. The 09 contract price of coking coal increased slightly [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price decreased by 3.2 to 193 US dollars/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 to 873.0, a 1.4% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 to 445.0, a 1.9% decrease [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 to 818.9, a 3.2% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 to 770.9, a 2.0% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased by 70 to 5174, a 1.4% increase, and the ferromanganese主力合约 price increased by 14 to 5552, a 0.3% increase [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.2 to 5619.8, a 0.2% decrease, and the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 1.2 to 9.7, a 14.6% increase, and the ferromanganese production remained relatively stable [6]. Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon - chromium products increased by 0.2 to 17.2, a 1.2% increase, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 6.8, a 9.8% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises for ferromanganese increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is entering a period of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. It is necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profits [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the near - month non - main contracts have rebounded, and there are safety inspection voices in the main production areas. The short - term may see a rebound, while the medium - term strategy is still high - selling [6]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are under pressure due to macro - level negatives. Their prices are expected to be mainly under pressure [7]. - For iron ore, the off - season effect is gradually being realized, and there is still room for the price to fall [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2905 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan (-2.12%); HC2601 at 3045 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan (-1.42%); J2601 at 658.5 yuan/ton, down 9.5 yuan (-1.42%); JM2601 at 735.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-3.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan (-1.18%); HC2510 at 3052 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan (-1.04%); J2509 at 695.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (-1.14%); JM2509 at 719 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan (-3.03%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On June 3rd, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was 23 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 was 17 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; J2509 - 2601 was - 23.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM2509 - 2601 was - 16.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit indicators such as the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan, up 9 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.81, up 0.01; the rebar disk profit was <73.18, down 17.78; the coking disk profit was 342.73, up 0.31 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 3rd, Shanghai rebar was 3080 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2870 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Platts Index was 96.3, down 0.5. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Rizhao Port: PB was 728 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Basis**: On June 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 108 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; RB main contract was 152 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; I main contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract was 252.13 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; JM main contract was 216 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with weak price drivers. Macro - environment is uncertain, and there may be a short - term policy vacuum. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse market expectations, but relevant information is lacking. It is necessary to maintain the idea of selling hedging or spot pre - sale [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to fall, and the futures black - chain index is at a new low. The 07 contract of coking coal has increased in position and price, and safety inspections are reported in the main production areas. The market is affected by overseas tariffs, and the cost curve of coking coal is unclear. Short - term rebound may occur, and medium - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron has reduced supply, weakened direct and terminal demand, and weakened cost support. Manganese silicon has a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, but supply may increase marginally, and costs are also moving down. Both are under price pressure [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Ore shipments are gradually recovering, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. Steel demand is weakening seasonally, and iron water production is declining. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit on iron water production and the stability of steel exports [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, do well in hedging and open - position management, and conduct appropriate inventory rotation. For arbitrage positions, the coil - to - rebar spread has temporarily stopped losing [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term may see a rebound, and the medium - term strategy is high - selling [9]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Short - sell on rallies due to the repeated Sino - US trade negotiations, and pay attention to futures - spot positive arbitrage [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, the market is in a clear downward trend, and the trading of coking coal and coke is further under pressure. A bearish view is taken on coking coal and coke, and there is no clear reversal driver [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Overview - On May 29, in the black - series commodity futures market, coking coal and coke continued to decline. The rebar closed at 2,978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the iron ore main contract closed at 707 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis - Currently in the off - season of steel demand, infrastructure steel demand has limited incremental effect, and construction in some cities is affected during the mid - and high - school entrance exams. The overall steel demand is difficult to improve significantly. Last week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 long - process steel mills decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons. Some steel mills controlled the arrival rhythm, reducing the raw material procurement demand, and the second - round price cut of coke in the production area has been fully implemented. There is an expectation of a third - round price cut [1]. - Last week, the profits of coking enterprises tightened, and some areas turned to losses. Coking enterprises mainly focused on active sales, but due to the obvious downward market trend, strong supply and weak demand, most coking enterprises had difficulties in sales, with inventories at medium - to - high levels, making it difficult to support prices [1]. - Due to the tightened profits of coking enterprises and the decline in steel prices, the procurement demand of coking and steel enterprises for raw coal is further under pressure. The continuous high production and supply of coking coal have led to inventory backlogs at mines. This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples reached a two - month low, but the raw coal inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 641.1 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 25.5 tons to 473 tons, both hitting new highs. The online auction of coking coal had poor results, most coal mines lowered the starting prices, and the phenomenon of auction failures did not improve, and the price decline of raw coal was hard to stop [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].