Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.12%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and the demand toughness is weakening. The supply-demand pattern continues to deteriorate. The relatively positive factor is cost support. Under the game between weak reality and cost support, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to seek a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while industrial concerns persist, and demand is expected to decrease. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are beginning to weaken. High-valued iron ore prices are likely to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high level of rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the trend will show a high-level oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The preliminary accounting shows that the GDP in the first three quarters was 1,015,036 billion yuan. Calculated at constant prices, it increased by 5.2% year-on-year. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the added value of the secondary industry was 3,640.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 5,929.55 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%. By quarter, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.1% [6]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial added value of large-scale industries in China from January to September increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In September, the actual year-on-year growth of the industrial added value of large-scale industries was 6.5% (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 0.64% compared with the previous month. From January to September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.2% year-on-year. By major categories, in September, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.3%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 0.6%. By economic type, in September, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.8%, foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan increased by 5.8%; private enterprises increased by 4.6% [7]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in the first three quarters was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, China's crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; pig iron output was 645.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 1,103.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of various steel products and iron ore-related products are provided, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and Platts Index. The price changes of these products are also given [9]. Futures Market - The futures prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are presented, including the closing price, daily change rate, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [13]. Relevant Charts - Charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at ports and steel mills, are provided. Charts related to steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability, are also included [15][20][31]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply-demand pattern has changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22,400 tons month-on-month, and the supply continued to contract, but the decline rate slowed down. The space for production reduction during the peak season is limited, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. At the same time, the demand for rebar rebounded as expected after the festival. The weekly apparent demand increased significantly month-on-month, but the high-frequency daily trading volume was sluggish. Both are still at the lowest levels in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. The peak season is expected to be lackluster, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. In short, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the weakening trend of the supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory continues to increase. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable. The weekly output decreased by 14,500 tons month-on-month, and the decline is limited. It is still at a high level this year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has improved. The weekly apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons month-on-month, but the high-frequency trading volume is still weak. The sustainability of the improvement is questionable, and the contradictions in the downstream cold-rolled industry have not been alleviated. The improvement in external demand is limited, and the demand toughness of hot-rolled coil is weakening. In short, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and the demand toughness is weakening. The supply-demand pattern continues to deteriorate. The relatively positive factor is cost support. Under the game between weak reality and cost support, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to seek a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For iron ore, the supply-demand pattern has weakened. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to decline from a high level. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills both decreased month-on-month. Although both are still at relatively high levels this year, the contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and industrial concerns persist, so the positive effect of demand is weakening. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, but the overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded. Both are at high levels this year, indicating active supply of foreign ore. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore supply, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased. In short, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while industrial concerns persist, and demand is expected to decrease. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are beginning to weaken. High-valued iron ore prices are likely to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high level of rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the trend will show a high-level oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the pressure level for rebar at 3230 and the support level at 3050; for hot-rolled coil, the pressure level is 3450 and the support level is 3250; for the main iron ore contract 2601, the pressure level is 833 and the support level is 750. In the medium term, there is still room for an upward trend, and the lows of rebar and hot-rolled coil in the second half of the year are higher than those in the first half [4]. - The overall supply of steel has decreased, but there is a structural differentiation. After major events, blast furnace steelmaking has gradually recovered, while the reduction of electric arc furnace steel is significant. The supply of long products has decreased, and the supply of plate products has increased. The demand in "Golden September" has improved, but the recovery momentum is not stable, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Supply - The total supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5724 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 34,100 tons, a decline of 0.4%. After major events, blast furnace steelmaking has gradually recovered, with the daily output of molten iron this week at 240,550 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,710 tons, slightly higher than the level before the military parade. The reduction of electric arc furnace steel is significant. As of September 11, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,341 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 151 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit loss of 55 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm of electric arc furnace steel is limited. The supply of long products has decreased, and the supply of plate products has increased [17]. Steel Inventory - The total steel inventory this week was 15.1461 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 139,100 tons, an increase of 0.93% [18]. Iron Ore Supply and Inventory - From September 1 to September 7, the total global iron ore shipments were 27.562 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8.006 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 23.296 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.725 million tons. The Australian shipments were 18.224 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 722,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.313 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 5.072 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.003 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 22.67 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.411 million tons. The Australian shipments were 17.795 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.922 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 418,000 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 4.875 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.092 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China from September 1 to September 7 was 25.729 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 721,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 24.48 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 780,000 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 13.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 192,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country this week was 144.5612 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 304,000 tons [27]. Important Industry News - According to the statistics of the main excavator manufacturers by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in August 2025, 16,523 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 7,685 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; the export volume was 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. From January to August 2025, a total of 154,181 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; among them, the domestic sales volume was 80,628 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; the export volume was 73,553 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. In August 2025, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%; from January to August, the cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 801.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. In August 2025, China exported 763,000 vehicles. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.928 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. In August 2025, China exported 403.8 million household appliances. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 2.993412 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. By 2027, more than five professional large models will be promoted for in-depth application in industries such as power grids, power generation, coal, and oil and gas. On September 3, the total scrap steel inventory of 300 representative long and short process steel mills across the country was 494,400 tons, a decrease of 28,600 tons from the previous day, a decrease of 0.58%; the daily consumption volume was 54,370 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day; the daily arrival volume was 51,510 tons, an increase of 0.27% from the previous day. In August 2025, China exported 951,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 7.749 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The supply increased overall, the construction material demand continued to decline, and the plate demand remained flat. The five major steel products accelerated inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, and the differentiation between varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [6]. - For iron ore, the price fluctuated narrowly, and the futures price was weak. The supply increased month - on - month, and the demand remained basically the same. The supply - demand structure became looser month - on - month. In the short term, the market is waiting and seeing. The strength of the peak - season demand for finished products cannot be verified or falsified, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded. Compared with finished products, the iron ore price may maintain the current oscillating and relatively strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price fluctuated and declined last week. The rebar 10 contract fell 69 points to close at 3119, and the spot price in East China dropped 30 yuan/ton week - on - week to 3290 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate decreased, but the output increased. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons week - on - week. Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month, but the impact time is short [14][18]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week. The short - process supply decreased due to factors such as tight scrap resources and falling rebar prices [21]. - The total output of the five major steel products last week was 878.06 tons, an increase of 6.43 tons week - on - week. Rebar production decreased significantly, while plate production increased [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 13th to 19th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased by 0.6% week - on - week. Although the high - temperature weather still significantly affected the construction material demand, the bottom of the demand may have appeared [28]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in July was 5.7%, and that of the equipment manufacturing industry was 8.4%. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [31]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3336 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that both blast furnace and electric arc furnace profits will continue to shrink [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1441.04 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons week - on - week. The accumulation rate of rebar social inventory slowed down, and the factory inventory increased slightly [39]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons last week, and the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons. The overall inventory level is still relatively low [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 151, an increase of 39 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was 19, an increase of 28 compared with last week. Due to the relatively strong spot price during the peak season, the basis is difficult to repair significantly [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 76, and the inversion narrowed by 5 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread for potential positive - spread opportunities [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 242, a narrowing of 9 compared with last week. The spot spread was 110, a narrowing of 20 compared with last week. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the 01 spread narrowing when the production - restriction policy is fully implemented [51]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly last week. The 01 contract fell 6 points to close at 770, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton to 767 yuan/ton. The market sentiment cooled, and the overall market was in a wait - and - see mode [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume from Australia decreased by 690,000 tons month - on - month, while that from Brazil increased by 710,000 tons month - on - month [59][62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.32 million tons week - on - week [65]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4075 million tons/day, an increase of 900 tons/day week - on - week. The demand for iron ore remained at a high level, showing strong resilience [68]. - The average daily port trading volume was 1.016 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished inventory as needed [71]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 144.442 million tons, an increase of 630,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills was 27.5193 million tons, a decrease of 240,100 tons compared with the previous period. The overall change was not significant [78]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.21 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 23.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 22.5, an increase of 2 compared with last week, and it is at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 20, basically the same as last week, and the basis level is relatively low [86].