证 券 研 究 报 告 反内卷叠加西芒杜投产，产业链利润格局重塑 2026年钢铁行业投资策略 证券分析师：郭中伟 A0230524120004 陈松涛 A0230523090002 2025.11.18 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 自2024年下半年钢铁行业触底以来，三重因素推动下，钢铁行业盈利预期改善。 ◼ 1）成本端，原料价格中枢下行，产业链利润分配趋于合理。西芒杜铁矿于2025年11月投产，铁矿供给有较 大增长，同时钢铁供给端承压制约铁矿需求，预计后续铁矿石价格中枢回落，推动钢企利润修复。 ◼ 2）供给端，政策限产+部分企业现金流压力推动行业供给加快出清。政策端提出"反内卷"的背景下，钢铁 去产量为中长期基调，节能降碳要求有望加快落后产能出清，且行业兼并重组也有望推动未来集中度的提升， 预计供给格局整体将有所优化。 ◼ 3）需求端，制造业需求有韧性，支撑板材和特钢景气度。建筑领域需求整体企稳，同时制造业需求有较强韧 性，行业内部需求结构分化，未来仍然看好板材与特钢板块的盈利能力。 ◼ 投资分析意见：我们分析认为，我国未来钢铁消费结构将从建筑业向制造业转移，行业 ...

行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 2025 年钢铁产能置换方案与 2021 年有何异同？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 为落实全国新型工业化推进大会部署，加快推进存量产能减量提质、结构优化和转型升级，促 进市场供需平衡，推动行业高质量发展，依据国家有关法律法规和产业政策，工业和信息化部 对《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》（工信部原〔2021〕46 号）进行了修订，研究形成了 2025 年 版《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》。我们对 2021 年版和 2025 年版《钢铁行业产 能置换实施办法》进行了对比梳理。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 2025 年钢铁产能置换方案与 2 ...

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年10月27日08时17分 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求继续回升 ，但整体弱于去年同期，螺纹产量有回升但总库存下降速度偏慢 。热卷的库存在大幅回升后已经 远高于同期水平。焦煤和焦炭现货偏强运行，对成本构成一定支撑。不过，由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期即将过去，未来钢厂预计将压减 产量从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷的期价已经突破了上方 10 日均线的压制，预示本轮下跌行情 有结束风险。 操作建议： 空单可以轻仓持有，后市逢低需要及时止盈离场。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3046 | -25 | -0.81% | 9 | 0.30% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3250 | -6 | -0.18% | 46 | 1 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The steel price is running at a low level and there is a short - term rebound potential. The later stage should focus on macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Logical Content - After the Sino - US consultations, initial consensus has been reached, the macro - level has improved, and risk sentiment has recovered [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has publicly solicited opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It is strictly prohibited to increase the total steel production capacity in key areas, transfer steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas, and transfer steel production capacity between different key areas. The capacity replacement ratio of ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) is not less than 1.5:1 [2]. - Since 12:00 on October 27, Hebei's Tangshan, Langfang, Handan, and Baoding have launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather. Some steel mills in Tangshan have received notices to extend the sintering machine production restriction time until the end of October, and blast furnaces are to be shut down by 30% according to capacity. As of October 24, the daily average hot metal output of steel mills in Tangshan was 39.69 tons. If the blast furnace is restricted by 30%, the daily average hot metal output will be affected by 9.1 tons, and a total of 40.95 tons of hot metal output will be affected in 4.5 days [2]. Group 4: Summary of Market Conditions - Last week, the finished product market fluctuated and the price rebounded slightly. The initial consensus after the Sino - US consultations improved the macro - level and increased risk sentiment. The level - II emergency response in some areas of Hebei since Monday is expected to affect the hot metal output by 40.95 tons, which will support the finished product price [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" to promote high-quality development and balance market supply and demand, with a focus on reducing and optimizing existing production capacity [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The revised measures prohibit the construction or expansion of steel smelting projects outside compliant parks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt [1]. - New steel production capacity is strictly forbidden in key areas, and the transfer of steel capacity from non-key areas to key areas is also prohibited [1]. - Provinces with clear steel capacity control targets are not allowed to accept steel capacity transfers from other regions [1]. Group 2: Capacity Replacement Ratios - The capacity replacement ratio for iron and steel production in all provinces (regions, municipalities) must be no less than 1.5:1 [1]. - For newly acquired compliant capacity through mergers and acquisitions after June 1, 2021, the capacity replacement ratio must be no less than 1.25:1 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" and is currently seeking public opinions on the draft [1] Group 1: Capacity Replacement Regulations - Steel companies must scientifically assess supply and demand to avoid inefficient investments and develop capacity replacement plans according to the regulations [3] - New construction or expansion of steel smelting projects is prohibited outside compliant zones in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and no new steel capacity is allowed in key areas [3] - Six categories of capacity are not eligible for replacement, including capacities listed for reduction, those not yet operational before the announcement of replacement plans, and capacities from outdated production equipment [4][5] Group 2: Capacity Transfer and Replacement Ratios - The draft encourages cross-regional capacity replacement, with no restrictions imposed by local regions [6] - The replacement ratio for iron and steel capacity in provinces must not be less than 1.5:1, with a lower ratio of 1.25:1 applicable for newly acquired compliant capacity after June 1, 2021 [7] - Three scenarios allow for equal capacity replacement, including internal repairs of existing equipment and projects in specific regions like Qinghai and Tibet [8] Group 3: Mergers and Low-Carbon Development - The draft outlines conditions for mergers and acquisitions to qualify for replacement ratio policies, emphasizing the need for substantial changes in control and corporate structure [9][10] - It encourages high-quality utilization of scrap steel, orderly development of electric furnace steel, and the implementation of green low-carbon technology in existing steel production [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights the exit paths for off-balance steel production capacity under the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on the need for stricter regulation and the removal of illegal production capacities [5][7] - Seasonal recovery in construction demand and liquidity support have contributed to a rebound in steel prices, although the demand during the "Golden September" period is not particularly strong [4][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory measures to ensure the exit of illegal and excess steel production capacities, which is crucial for improving the supply-demand balance in the steel industry [7][28] Summary by Sections Section: Current Market Conditions - Construction demand has shown seasonal recovery, with apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 0.34% year-on-year and 0.55% month-on-month [4] - Daily average pig iron production has risen to 2.4102 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.47 tons per day [4] - Total steel inventory has increased by 0.32% month-on-month and 7.16% year-on-year [4] Section: Regulatory Environment - Recent inspections by the Central Environmental Protection Supervision Team have focused on illegal steel production capacities in several provinces, highlighting issues such as unauthorized construction and the persistence of "rebar steel" production [5][6] - The report identifies three main forms of illegal steel production: capacity replacement schemes, production under the guise of casting and forging, and the construction of illegal rebar steel [6] Section: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a clear direction for steel production regulation, emphasizing the need to eliminate illegal capacities and enforce strict compliance with production standards [7] - It suggests that the ongoing "anti-involution" policies will enhance the supply-side contraction expectations, potentially leading to significant valuation recovery for steel companies with low price-to-book ratios [27][28]

Group 1 - Rizhao Steel Holding Group successfully auctioned steel production capacity indicators from Xiwang Metal Technology Co., Ltd. for 2.677 billion yuan, with a starting price of 2.197 billion yuan [1][3] - The auctioned capacity includes two blast furnaces and two converters, with a total iron production capacity of 236 million tons per year and a total steel production capacity of 230 million tons per year [1][3] - The auction attracted two bidders, with a deposit of 400 million yuan and a bidding increment of 10 million yuan [1][3] Group 2 - Xiwang Metal Technology Co., Ltd. was established in December 2007, with a registered capital of 27.28 million USD, and is a major private enterprise in China focusing on corn deep processing and special steel [5] - Rizhao Steel Holding Group, founded in 2003, became the first company in Rizhao to exceed 100 billion yuan in output value in 2019, and is recognized for its advanced steel production technologies [5] - The successful auction is expected to enhance Rizhao Steel's production capacity and competitiveness within the industry [5]