AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成 标普全球（S&P Global）在一项新研究中指出，人工智能领域的竞赛以及国防开支的飙升，预计将加剧 本已显现的铜短缺，而生产商正艰难地试图扩大产能。 标普全球在周四发布的一份由矿业界支持的报告写道，就在矿山供应面临结构性限制的同时，需求增长 正在加速，这增加了铜成为经济增长和技术扩张瓶颈的风险。 受一系列矿山停产以及交易商在特朗普政府可能加征关税前在美国囤积铜的影响，伦敦铜价已飙升至每 吨13000美元以上的历史高位。尽管流入美国仓库的铜流动已将价格推高至超出基础消费所隐含的水 平，但新的需求领域预示着长期来看市场将更加紧张。 标普全球能源转型与关键金属咨询主管奥里安·德拉努夫（Aurian De La Noue）在接受采访时表示："就 在三年前，人工智能和数据中心甚至根本不在考虑范围内。这项研究表明，即使在不考虑这些新的增长 点的情况下，世界也正朝着供应短缺的方向发展。" 标普全球预计，到2040年，全球铜需求将从目前的水平增长50%，达到4200万吨。虽然建筑、家电、交 通和发电等传统来源仍占铜需求的大部分，但最大的需求增长份额将来自能源转型领域，包 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 这种红色金属在12月飙升至每吨12000美元以上的历史新高，并在2025年上涨了超过30%，是自2009年 世界走出金融危机、铜价暴涨超140%以来的最大年度涨幅。分析师预计，到2030年代，这种工业金属 的需求将超过矿产供应，明年的价格将维持高位。 音频由扣子空间生成 随着美国关税、供应中断以及对全球短缺的担忧在年底助推了一波疯狂的涨势，铜价有望创下十多年来 的最大年度涨幅。 从化石燃料向风能、太阳能等可再生能源的转型，汽车的电气化，以及为人工智能提供动力的数据中心 建设热潮，都在推动铜需求的增长。然而，老化的铜矿生产力正在下降，而投产新矿不仅成本高昂且耗 时数年。 大宗商品经纪商StoneX的高级金属需求分析师Natalie Scott-Gray表示，持续的高价可能导致一些制造商 选择更便宜的替代品，或打击脱碳等被视为非必要领域的需求。她指出，价格上涨是今年多种因素汇聚 而成的"完美风暴"的一部分，这些因素包括紧张贸易局势的缓和、关于俄乌和平协议的谈判以及美国进 口关税的影响。 金融服务集团Marex的基本金属策略师Alastair Munro表示，许多市场参与者都在 ...

格隆汇12月5日｜据外媒，最近几周，贸易公司再次竞相向美国运送更多铜。至关重要的是，特朗普已 承诺明年重新考虑对原铜征收关税的计划，而纽约铜期货价格的新一轮飙升为交易商在任何关税实施之 前提前进口提供了另一个机会。去年加入摩科瑞、负责该公司在金属市场的快速扩张的科斯塔斯•宾塔 斯上周表示，随着交易势头加大，他预计未来几周铜价格将进一步升至创纪录水平，而海外买家可能在 明年第一季度面临严重短缺。"这是一个大问题，如果世界继续这样发展下去，（美国以外的）世界其 他地方将失去阴极铜。"宾塔斯同时表示，随着对美出口加速和交易所库存减少，他预计制造商将需要 支付越来越高的价格。摩科瑞被曝本周已发出通知，计划从LME的亚洲仓库提取逾4万吨铜。 ...

智利《biobiochile》网站等媒体10月29日报道，伦敦金属交易所铜价29日创下历史 新高，原因在于智利、非洲和印尼多个大型矿山接连停产导致全球供应紧张，而特朗 普政府的关税政策又造成大量铜库存积压美国。摩根士丹利预测2026年将出现二十年 来最严重的铜短缺。中国需求保持稳定、可再生能源及电动汽车产业长期需求旺盛， 共同推动铜价迈向2017年以来最佳年度表现。智利作为全球最大铜出口国，其货币兑 美元汇率随之走强。 （原标题：智媒关注铜价创历史新高） ...

Group 1 - The majority of mining CEOs agree that the world is accelerating towards a copper shortage, with the real challenge being how to respond to this issue [2] - The merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, valued at $54 billion, appears to address supply concerns, particularly as copper is crucial for the green energy transition [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global copper production was approximately 23 million tons last year, with projections to increase to 24 million tons by the end of the decade, but could fall below 20 million tons by 2035 without new supply sources [2] Group 2 - The IEA predicts that copper demand could approach 33 million tons by 2035, highlighting a significant supply-demand gap that may not be filled by increased recycling of scrap metal [2] - Supply disruptions are a pressing concern, as Freeport-McMoRan announced a production halt at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, causing a stock price drop of over 15% [2] - Citigroup analysts believe that global copper production growth will be minimal this year, with an expected growth rate of only 1.3% by 2026, significantly lower than the 2.5% average growth rate over the past 25 years [2] Group 3 - Economic theory suggests that price increases typically lead to expanded mining operations, and recent trends indicate that copper prices are nearing last year's 20-year high [3] - However, inflation during the pandemic has accelerated production costs, with capital expenditures required to initiate new supplies in Latin America increasing by 65% since 2020 [3] - Major mining companies have differing views on the actual costs of new projects, with estimates ranging from $23,000 to $30,000 per ton for new copper mines, necessitating significant upfront investments [3] Group 4 - To achieve reasonable returns, large mining companies need copper prices to exceed $12,000 per ton, complicating their willingness to invest in new underground projects due to lengthy approval processes [4] - The merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources is attractive as it allows for the acquisition of additional mining capacity without the risks associated with new mine development [4] - The combined entity expects to add 175,000 tons of copper production by 2030, leveraging synergies from nearby mines [4] Group 5 - There are concerns that post-merger, the combined mining company may not increase production levels compared to their independent operations, as they may prioritize higher-return mines [5] - The exploration budget for mining companies has dropped below 3% of EBITDA for copper operations, down from over 6% in the early 2010s, indicating a decline in new discoveries [5] - Bank of America has raised its copper price forecast for next year to $11,313 per ton, with expectations of reaching $13,500 per ton by 2027, which could incentivize mining companies to resume exploration [5]

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria predicts a significant shortage in copper supply this year, which may lead to record-high copper prices [1] Group 1: Supply Shortage - Mercuria forecasts a shortage of 700,000 tons in copper concentrate and 300,000 tons in refined copper metal for this year [1] - The copper market is described as being in an extremely fragile state, with a high likelihood of entering a shortage phase in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - Nicholas Snowdon, a prominent copper bull at Mercuria, anticipates that copper prices will reach new highs, stating it is only a matter of time [1] - The current market conditions suggest that the question is not whether a shortage will occur, but when it will happen [1]

Core Insights - The energy trader Molybdenum expects a shortage of 700,000 tons of copper concentrate this year and a shortage of 300,000 tons of refined copper [1] Industry Summary - The anticipated shortages in copper concentrate and refined copper indicate potential supply chain challenges within the copper industry, which may impact pricing and availability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Antofagasta stated that a long-term copper shortage will persist, but demand drivers may change if the economy weakens [1] Group 1 - The long-term outlook for copper supply indicates a sustained shortage [1] - Economic conditions could alter the demand dynamics for copper [1]