Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may see a slight increase in both supply and demand. Costs are supported, and supply expectations are improved by policies. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. The option market is bullish. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand in the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the alumina futures main contract closes at 3,182 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,615 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The spreads of some contracts show various changes [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 215,510 hands, down 6,228 hands; the alumina main contract is 114,892 hands, down 7,074 hands [2]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory is 470,575 tons, up 1,075 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 113,614 tons, down 3,913 tons; the alumina total inventory is 85,472 tons, up 38,284 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 115 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 70 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production is 774.93 tons, up 26.13 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 696.19 tons, down 23.83 tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import of alumina is 10.13 tons, up 3.38 tons; the export is 17.00 tons, down 4.00 tons. The import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,523.20 tons, up 2.50 tons; the production of aluminum products is 587.37 tons, up 11.17 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 tons, up 0.29 tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 tons, up 5.20 tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.58 tons, up 0.16 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of automobiles is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles; the production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 tons, up 2.40 tons [2]. - **Market Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 7.78%, down 1.51%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.69%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.77%, up 0.0005 [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.15, up 0.0039 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In July, the CPI环比 turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase, and the PPI环比 decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points [2]. - **Trade Forecast**: The WTO expects the global goods trade volume to grow by 0.9% in 2025 [2]. - **Policy Statements**: Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year; US Treasury Secretary Bentsen comments on Trump's tariff policy and the Fed chair [2]. - **Consumption Promotion**: The "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new - energy vehicle consumption season starts, and in July, the production and retail of new - energy vehicles show significant growth [2].

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, August 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, with the relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of Shunda and Arufa mining rights, the supply is expected to increase. Along with the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the surplus pressure of alumina will intensify. For electrolytic aluminum, the production of replacement capacity in Yunnan will continue to rise, and inventory accumulation may continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. Before the peak season in September, downstream stocking is expected to gradually start. For aluminum alloy, following the logic of Shanghai Aluminum during the off - season, it is expected to shift to the expectation of spread repair in the 2511 peak season. In August, the pattern of the aluminum industry's supply - demand marginal strength is expected to shift from upstream to downstream, with opportunities for the convergence of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread and the expansion of the AL2509 - AO2509 spread. Attention should be paid to the progress of the alumina anti - involution policy and the inventory accumulation cycle of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 1. Price - In July, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 3222 yuan/ton as of July 31, a monthly increase of 7.9%. Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 20510 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.3%. Aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 19950 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 4% [5][6] 2. Spread - In July, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 129 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum changed from a premium of 40 yuan/ton to a discount of 20 yuan/ton [5] 3. Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in July will increase to 88270000 tons, with a production of 7500000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. After Shandong enterprises completed regular maintenance, they returned to normal operation, and the operation in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi remained stable, with the overall operation continuing to pick up. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 43830000 tons, with a production of 3730000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. After inventory accumulation at the alloy end, the ingot - casting volume of the upstream increased, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] 4. Demand - In the off - season, downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand rhythm, and the decline in the off - season operating rate converged. In July, the average operating rate of aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, a 1.3% decline compared to June. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 1.9% to 63.3%, the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased by 0.86% to 69.5%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 3% to 50%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 1.34% to 61.8%. The processing fee of aluminum rods in Henan decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while in other regions, it increased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The processing fee of aluminum poles in Guangdong remained stable, decreased by 100 yuan/ton in Shandong, and increased by 100 yuan/ton in Henan and Inner Mongolia [3] 5. Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in July, alumina inventory decreased by 11400 tons to 6015 tons; Shanghai Aluminum inventory increased by 21500 tons to 115800 tons; LME inventory increased by 104100 tons to 461000 tons. In terms of social inventory, alumina inventory increased by 22400 tons to 48000 tons; aluminum ingot inventory increased by 76000 tons to 544000 tons; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6500 tons to 147000 tons [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,200 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the spread between this month and next month's contracts was 90 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 207,900 lots, up 4,339 lots. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the spread between this month and next month's contracts was 79 yuan, up 19 yuan; the main contract position was 352,989 lots, down 18,319 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 7,831 lots, up 5,153 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19, up 0.10 [2]. - **International Futures**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 54,600 tons, down 4,250 tons; the three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quote was 2,465 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory was 377,325 tons, down 4,250 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was 20,370 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 180 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of alumina was 296 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points; alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 50.50 million tons, down 1.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points; the aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.11%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 15.01%, down 0.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 10.01%, up 0.0004 percentage points; the option call - put ratio was 0.67, down 0.0191 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, He Lifeng, met with Dan Simkowitz, the co - president of Morgan Stanley, stating that China will unswervingly promote high - level opening - up and welcome US financial institutions to participate in the construction and development of the Chinese capital market. - Zhang Guoqing, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council, emphasized during a research trip in Shanghai the need to build a good ecological environment for the platform economy and maintain a fair and orderly market environment. - From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26,275.5 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; the total profit was 134.914 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; the taxes payable were 203.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. At the end of April, the asset - liability ratio was 65.1%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - The Fed meeting minutes showed that policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty faced by the economy was higher than before, and it was appropriate to be cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies to become clearer before considering action. - Fed official Williams said that it was crucial to keep inflation expectations stable. - Fed's Kashkari revealed that there was a "debate" within the Fed. - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.358 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.23 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 726,000 units [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The alumina main contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decrease in positions, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The raw material supply of bauxite in China might increase slightly, and the alumina supply was expected to rise slightly as some previously - reduced - production enterprises might resume production. The demand for alumina remained at a high level due to the stable production of electrolytic aluminum. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were below the 0 - axis and the red bars were expanding [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract showed a volatile trend, with an increase in positions, a spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively sufficient, while the demand growth slowed down due to seasonal factors. The industry inventory was still at a low level and might accumulate slightly if seasonal consumption weakened. The option market sentiment was bearish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were near the 0 - axis and the red bars were expanding [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand, with a suggestion of trading lightly with a weak oscillation, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are currently in a stage of sufficient supply and slowing demand growth, with an option market sentiment leaning towards bearishness. It is recommended to trade lightly with an oscillatory approach and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2] - The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum was 70 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; for alumina, it was 60 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 203,561 lots, up 1,088 lots; for alumina, they were 371,302 lots, down 9,474 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 58,850 tons, down 3,000 tons; the total alumina inventory was 219,801 tons, down 31,353 tons [2] - The three - month LME electrolytic aluminum quotation was 2,483 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 381,575 tons, down 3,000 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum were 2,678 lots, up 6,026 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.09, down 0.03 [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum were 53,542 tons, down 1,025 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 141,289 tons, up 150 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium was 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum premium was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the alumina basis was 269 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the electrolytic aluminum basis was 255 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan [2] - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the national alumina operating rate was 78.87%, down 4.73 percentage points [2] - The alumina capacity utilization rate was 81.54%, down 6.74 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance was - 9.93 million tons, down 13.48 million tons; the alumina export volume was 26.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons [2] - The alumina import volume was 1.07 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.60%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The aluminum alloy production was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the aluminum alloy export volume was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 260.40 million vehicles, down 44.06 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.13%, down 0.10 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.18%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 9.97%, up 0.0084; the option call - put ratio was 0.69, down 0.0150 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March, with new - kinetic - energy industries growing rapidly [2] - China's key - city real - estate market showed a bottoming - out and stabilizing trend, with new and second - hand housing transactions increasing in the first four months [2] - Many car companies launched price - cut promotions, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% with a 120 - day payment period [2] - US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, higher than all economists' expectations [2] - The US March FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the S&P/CS20 major cities' housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [2] - The European Central Bank's Holzmann suggested postponing further interest - rate cuts until September [2] - The US and the EU may accelerate trade negotiations, and some countries' tariffs may be reduced to 10% or lower [2] - The Guinea Alumina Company hopes to resume friendly negotiations with the Guinea government to lift restrictions on bauxite mining [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with a relatively strong oscillation trend from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export continue to support the aluminum price, but the off - season characteristics of terminal operating rates are obvious, and the hype about the Guinea mining rights theme has cooled down. The resistance above 20,500 is still significant, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [5][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum market is in a large - range oscillation, and it should be treated as a relatively strong oscillation from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export support the aluminum price, but the resistance above 20,500 is large, and it is recommended to hold a moderate amount of long positions [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was believed that the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract would continue to consolidate around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider making appropriate purchases at low prices [9]. Overall View Supply Side - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of domestic ore is expected to change little in the short term and remains tight. Although the import volume of bauxite reached a record high in April, some suppliers declared force majeure, which may affect imports after June [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 22, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.35 million tons and an operating rate of 76.96%. The supply change is limited, and the spot is still in short supply. The profit margin has recovered, and enterprises' production willingness has increased. The price of domestic alumina futures is expected to be between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton next week [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of May 22, the theoretical operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was 43.865 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the room for further production increase this year is limited [10]. Demand Side - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 56% this week, with significant regional differentiation in the building materials sector. The operating rate is expected to decline slightly in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.6%. The export of terminal aluminum products has recovered, but it is still difficult to offset the seasonal decline in domestic consumption. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 70.6%, and the industry is in the traditional off - season. The operating rate is expected to decline [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 64.8%, and it is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%, and it is expected to remain stable but weak. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.6%, and the terminal demand is weak. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [11]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 556,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from the previous week and about 28% lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since 2017. The social inventory of aluminum rods is 127,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week and about 35% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at the lowest level since 1990 [11]. Profit - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, up from about 450 yuan/ton last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton, down from 2,900 yuan/ton last week [12]. Market Expectation - There are no significant positive or negative factors in the macro - level next week. The supply side is stable, and the "rush - to - export" will continue to support demand. However, if the alumina price drops from a high level, the Shanghai Aluminum price may fall below 20,000. It is difficult to break through the upper limit of the 20,300 range [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly due to the willingness of mainstream mines to support prices. The coal market is weak, and the alumina price rose first and then fell, experiencing profit - taking [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the alumina inventory has decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline [15][16]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,620 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% this week, and it is expected to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is still neutral and relatively strong. The low inventory and the possible rush - to - export in China support the spot price against the futures price [29]. - Based on the past 10 - year statistical data, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. Shanghai Aluminum is currently running close to the high - price range of the past 10 years, and it may continue to oscillate in the next week, with possible adjustments after the Dragon Boat Festival [34]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $6.6/ton, and the A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,490 yuan/ton, and the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which supports the electrolytic aluminum price [36][41][42]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise in the recent three weeks, and the short - term market may continue to rebound slightly. The net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has turned to a slight net short position this week, and the short - term may still have a slight adjustment [44][47].